Check out my rundown of the 2010 Senate races here

Wednesday, January 30, 2008

Edwards Finally Drops Out

John Edwards, after four disappointing losses thus far, has finally decided to end his bid for the Democratic nomination and the presidency.

I was not surprised by this news--I have been expecting it since South Carolina. But he did it today, after the meaningless Florida results came in. I'm baffled by his timing.

Edwards' strategy from the start was to win in the early states using his message of "change" and helping the middle class. In short, he wanted to be the anti-Hillary candidate.

But Barack Obama took that away from him and Edwards quickly turned into an also-ran candidate. After the Iowa results came in, I knew he was a goner.

Now the big question is, who will this help? His supporters, unlike Richardson, Biden, Dodd, and Kucinich's, make up a large bloc of the party--about 13% according to Realclearpolitics.com.

I really have no idea who this will help. On one hand, Edwards' constituency is mostly composed of white lower middle class, blue collar, and rural Democrats--who generally favor Hillary.

On the other hand, a lot of Edwards supporters dislike Hillary, and might flock to Obama as their last chance of having a non-Hillary nominee.

If I had to put money on it, I'd say it might help Obama a little bit more because he and Obama's messages have more in common than he and Hillary's. But I'm just going with my gut here.

Edwards has yet to endorse anyone (and I don't think he will), but just the mere incentive of an endorsement already has Hillary and Obama talking about poverty and battling big corporations, which is exactly what Edwards wants.

Keep an eye on the polls and see who his supporters are backing. It might make or break either Hillary or Obama on Super Tuesday.

No comments: