Check out my rundown of the 2010 Senate races here

Wednesday, January 2, 2008

Electability: The Democrats

Here's how I think the top 3 Democrats would fare in the general election.

1.) Barack Obama
Despite what many people think, Obama would be a uniter--at least to some extent. He is fairly liberal, about as much as Clinton, and would easily rally the liberal base. He also has great appeal among independents, young people, and even some Republicans, which could prove key in the general election. Not to mention he is a gifted orator. He is also the only major Democratic contender who has opposed the Iraq War from the start, which would be a major asset. I believe that his race would not be a major issue surrounding his campaign, but more his "lack of experience", even though he has more experience in public office than Clinton. This would only really hurt against someone like McCain. He also might make some rookie mistakes on the campaign trail, but overall he is the most electable Democrat.

2.) Hillary Clinton
Paired up against anyone but McCain or maybe Giuliani, Clinton would have no real problems winning the electoral college. She is well-known, well-respected (even among her opponents) and has Bill on her side. However, she is the most divisive figure in American politics--even in her own party. Generally, you're either with her or against her--not much room in the middle, which could prove risky for her. And, she has flip-flopped on the Iraq War, which would come back to bite her in the general election--hard.

3.) John Edwards
Edwards was likable in 2004. Not anymore. He has been very angry this campaign railing against "special interest" groups (which don't even really exist as a block) and big corporations. His populist message of taking them down will not resonate in many safe Democratic states. Many of these states might be up for grabs because of his angry anti-corporate message. The American people would realize that these "special interests" and corporations are the foundation of our economy and capitalism as we know it. In 2004, Edwards did not help John Kerry's campaign one bit as the vice presidential nominee. Don't expect that to change if he gets the nomination.

1 comment:

Keith "Nurse Keith" Carlson, RN, BSN, NC-BC said...

OK, we'll see what the caucuses bring! Looking forward to seeing how your predictions pan out!

Bon chance!