My Michigan Prediction (GOP)

Here are my predictions for tomorrow's Michigan Republican Primary.

Republicans:
1.) McCain 35%
2.) Romney 32%
3.) Huckabee 17%
4.) Giuliani 6%
5.) Paul 6%
6.) Thompson 4%

Despite Romney's first two losses, he and McCain should finish neck and neck here.

The economy is the hot button issue among Michigan Republicans. Michigan's economy is very reliant upon the automobile industry and is getting hit hard by the mortgage crisis.

Also, Michigan now has the highest unemployment rate in the country, at 7.4%. There is much concern about the Michigan's economy and the fear of job loss and further recession in the state.

Mitt Romney may have roots in Michigan, but his appeal among Michigan Republicans is his expertise and experience on the economy is the driving force behind his campaign here.

However, I think that McCain's momentum from New Hampshire will prove to be insurmountable.

Among Republicans, it should be a fairly even split between the two.

But Democrats and independents--who tend to side with McCain--may prove to be a factor because the Democratic National Committee stripped Michigan of all of its delegates because it moved its primary ahead of February 5th without permission. This means that many Democrats and independents alike are likely to vote in the Republican primary.

I think that their vote will give McCain enough of an edge to defeat Romney, who will have a tough time recovering after winning his third "silver."

Mike Huckabee, who does not have too much appeal among Michigan Republicans, should finish in a solid third, while Rudy Giuliani and Ron Paul will duke it out for a distant fourth.

Huckabee, however, should be rooting for Romney--his sworn enemy from Iowa--tomorrow night. A Romney win means a McCain loss, which is just what Huckabee needs going into South Carolina. The two are essentially tied there according to the most recent polls.

Right now my gut is telling me Romney will win and my brain is telling me McCain will win.

But if Romney wins tomorrow, this race will be even more wide open than it already is.