OH: Poll Shows Candidates With Low Name ID

A new Quinnipiac poll out of Ohio shows that most voters are unfamiliar with the major contenders for the state's open Senate seat.

In a Republican primary, former Rep. Rob Portman leads state Auditor Mary Taylor 31% to 14%, with 52% undecided. Portman has already announced his candidacy, has the establishment support, and is widely expected to be the GOP nominee. Taylor has not made her intentions clear yet, but has not ruled out a run.

In a Democratic primary, Lt. Gov. Lee Fisher leads Secretary of State Jennifer Brunner 18% to 14%, with 46% undecided. Both Fisher and Brunner have already formally announced their candidacies, setting up a competitive primary with lots of undecided voters left to win over.

Here are the head-to-head numbers:

Fisher--41%
Portman--33%

Fisher--41%
Taylor--31%

Brunner--39%
Portman--34%

Brunner--38%
Taylor--31%

It looks like either Democrat starts off with the slight advantage over either Republican, but it is still very very early and the name identification is low for all four of the aforementioned candidates.

67% of Ohioans don't know who Portman is, while over half of voters are not familiar with Fisher or Brunner. Clearly these candidates have a lot of room to work with to improve their numbers.

So until name identification shoots up for these three, we can basically ignore the majority of results of polls for this race.

OH: Two Top Democrats to Face Off in Primary

On Tuesday, two of Ohio's top Democrats--Lt. Gov. Lee Fisher and Secretary of State Jennifer Brunner--announced that they would be running for the state's open Senate seat in 2010, setting up a contentious primary.

Another Democrat attracting a lot of Senate buzz, Rep. Tim Ryan, announced soon after that he would not run for the seat and that he would be endorsing Fisher. Ohio Gov. Ted Strickland (D) has already said that he would back Fisher over Brunner in the Democratic primary, giving Fisher instantaneous establishment and financial support.

As far as electability is concerned, polls like this and this show that both candidates match up equally against Rob Portman, the likely Republican nominee.

Now that two heavyweight Democrats have announced their candidacies, I think it is reasonably safe to say that none of the other members of the Ohio congressional delegation (Reps. Zack Space, Betty Sutton, Marcy Kaptur, etc.) will enter the race.

Competitive primaries always have the potential to leave the party's nominee bruised, so there is just reason for Democrats to have concern.

However, Taniel of Campaign Diaries makes the case that this kind of primary could potentially be a good thing for the Democrats, citing that the primary is in May--so there is plenty of time to recover in time for the general election--and it allows them to stay in the media spotlight while Portman will fall out of the public eye. He also compares this race to the primary battle between Barack Obama and Hillary Clinton, and how it strengthened Obama's campaign in the long run. It's worth a read if you're interested.

Steelman Likely To Run in MO; Fisher Close to a Decision in OH

In Missouri, former state Treasurer Sarah Steelman (R) is "very, very likely" to run for the Senate in 2010, according to two Republican sources close to Steelman.

If Steelman decides to run, as expected, there will be a bruising top-notch GOP primary battle between her and Rep. Roy Blunt, who is expected to announce his candidacy soon. It is clear that Blunt would have the support of the Republican establishment, and that Steelman would be the anti-establishment candidate. Former Sen. Jim Talent is also pondering running for the seat, but Blunt's people are reportedly trying to get Talent to wait his turn.

The longer and more drawn out the GOP primary battle becomes, the better it is for Missouri Secretary of State Robin Carnahan--the likely Democratic nominee--as the two Republicans spend more and more money against each other while turning increasingly negative.

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In Ohio, Lt. Gov. Lee Fisher (D) told OhioDaily that his decision on a 2010 Senate bid will come in the next 45 days.

Fisher is seen by many Democrats--including his boss, Gov. Ted Strickland--to be the strongest candidate to face off against former Rep. Rob Portman, the likely Republican nominee. Recent polls like this one and this one confirm that Fisher would probably be the strongest Democrat in the general election.

Other potential Democratic candidates include Ohio Sec. of State Jennifer Brunner and Rep. Tim Ryan.

Poll: Dems Lead in Ohio Senate Race

A new Quinnipiac poll tested several potential (and announced) candidates for the 2010 Senate race in Ohio to replace retiring Sen. George Voinovich (R-OH).

Those candidates were: former Rep. Rob Portman and state Auditor Mary Taylor on the Republican side and Lt. Gov. Lee Fisher, Secretary of State Jennifer Brunner, and Rep. Tim Ryan on the Democratic side. Here are the numbers:

Republican Primary
Portman--33%
Taylor--11%

Democratic Primary
Fisher--18%
Brunner--16%
Ryan--14%

General Election
Fisher--42%
Portman--27%

Fisher--41%
Taylor--27%

Brunner--38%
Portman--28%

Brunner--38%
Taylor--26%

Before we start to analyze these results, keep in mind that none of these potential candidates are known well enough for Ohio voters to have an opinion of them, so there is plenty of room to improve as they get introduced to those voters.

That said, these numbers are disappointing for Republicans and good news for Democrats. The GOP got its candidate of choice, Rob Portman, to enter the race--but he still loses to both Democrats by significant margins. It also appears that the Democratic brand is still stronger than the Republican brand in Ohio, but that may change as we head closer to 2010 and farther away from the presidency of George W. Bush.

None of the Democratic candidates have made their mind up about entering the race, but Gov. Ted Strickland (D-OH) made it clear that he would back Fisher over Brunner.

Strickland told the Cleveland Plain Dealer, "My commitment is to him first. I believe Lee would be the strongest candidate if he were to choose to run. I don't say that to disparage Jennifer. She would be a very strong and credible candidate."

Even though the poll shows that Fisher has a nominal lead over Brunner in the Democratic primary, a Strickland endorsement would make it difficult for Brunner to get any serious traction, especially in the fundraising department. Strickland’s support for Fisher also strongly suggests that the other Democrat tested in the poll, Rep. Tim Ryan (who is also Strickland's old congressional colleague), won't make a run for the seat.

Fisher said that he would make his decision regardless of whether he would face Brunner or any other serious opposition in the primary. However, Fisher has been talking to Brunner in private about the race, and a bitter primary between the two could be damaging to party's chances against Portman. But I think that a primary battle between the two is unlikely.

Now all we have to wait for are the announcements of the candidacies, which should be coming in the following months.

Poll: Ohio Senate Race Wide Open

On Monday, Public Policy Polling released the first poll of the 2010 Ohio Senate race. The poll pits the likely Republican nominee, Rob Portman, against three potential Democratic opponents in a hypothetical match-up: Lieutenant Governor Lee Fisher, Rep. Tim Ryan and Secretary of State Jennifer Brunner. Here are the numbers:

Portman--41%
Fisher--39%

Portman--40%
Ryan--34%

Portman--42%
Brunner--34%

None of these candidates are universally known statewide, so all of them potentially have the opportunity to improve their numbers. But their favorability ratings give us a good idea of how Ohio voters perceive them thus far.

Portman has a favorable rating of 28% with 23% having an unfavorable opinion of him, while Fisher's numbers are 40-32, Ryan's are 26-27, and Brunner's are 34-36.

Based on these numbers, Portman is the least known of the the four potential candidates yet he leads all three of the Democrats--however, all of his leads were narrow and he barely reaches to 40% mark in each of the match-ups.

Portman has already officially announced his candidacy, but we are still waiting on Fisher, Ryan, Brunner, and others such as Reps. Zack Space and Betty Sutton to announce whether or not they are going to be running for this seat in 2010.

This poll confirms the fact that this race will be highly competitive no matter who the Democratic nominee is, and I will be keeping a close eye on it in the months to come.

OH-Sen: Portman Announces Candidacy

The GOP scored their first recruitment victory when former congressman and Bush cabinet official Rob Portman officially announced his candidacy to replace retiring Sen. George Voinovich (R-OH) earlier today. He is widely thought to be the most electable of the potential Republican candidates to run for Voinovich's seat.

He is the first candidate to jump into the race, and it is clear that he is the heavy favorite to win the Republican nomination. Just hours after his announcement, House Minority Leader John Boehner (R-OH) endorsed Portman. Republican Ohio Reps. Bob Latta and Patrick Tiberi followed suit soon afterward.

With nearly the entirety of the Ohio Republican Party coalescing around Portman, it is almost inconceivable that he won't win the GOP nomination.

Even though Republicans are rejoicing about Portman's candidacy, state Democrats will almost certainly tie him to George W. Bush, who appointed him to the positions of director of the Office of Management and Budget as well as U.S. Trade Representative over the past four years.

Meanwhile, on the Democratic side, Rep. Tim Ryan is openly considering running while Lt. Gov. Lee Fisher will decide in one week whether or not he will enter the race. These two men are considered to be the strongest candidates on the Democratic side.

OH-Sen: Voinovich Officially Announces Retirement

Sen. George Voinovich (R-OH) officially announced Monday morning that, "After prayerful consideration and much thought, my wife Janet and I have decided that I will not seek a third term in the United States Senate."

Voinovich (left) is the fourth Republican Senator to officially announce his retirement, putting the GOP in a tough position yet again in 2010.

This retirement gives the Democrats a good opportunity to flip the seat in 2010, when the seat will be vacant. It will also likely set up a competitive primary on both the Democratic and Republican sides.

On the Democratic side, Reps. Tim Ryan, Betty Sutton and Zack Space as well as Lt. Gov. Lee Fisher and Secretary of State Jennifer Brunner are often mentioned as potential candidates. Within hours of Voinovich's announcement, Ryan publicly confirmed his interest in running for the seat, while Fisher is reportedly leaning against running.

On the Republican side, Rob Portman--a former congressman, Director of the Office of Management and Budget, and US Trade Representative under President Bush--is strongly considering a run, and would be the heavy favorite for the nomination. Portman had announced earlier that he would be interested in running if Voinovich decided to retire, and has already been laying the groundwork for a run, according to The Hill.

Portman is thought to be able to clear the Republican primary field, as he reportedly has the support of the national party and the National Republican Senatorial Committee (NRSC). He will also reportedly will unveil Mercer Reynolds, the finance chairman of President George W. Bush's reelection race, to head his fundraising efforts. Portman is expected to officially announce his candidacy on Wednesday.

Former Rep. John Kasich has also been mentioned as a possible candidate, but he is widely thought to be more interested in challenging Gov. Ted Strickland (D) in 2010.

In the last two election cycles, the Democrats have made great strides--in 2006 they took over a Senate seat and the governor's mansion, and Barack Obama won the state in 2008.

With all of these retirements and what looks like another an unfavorable map for the GOP, it is becoming abundantly clear that Democrats will likely achieve a 60+ seat filibuster-proof majority after the 2010 election. It is also becoming obvious that some of these Republican Senators in their 70s are not wild about the idea of living out the rest of their years in the minority, and are getting out before it gets worse.

New NRSC chairman John Cornyn must be having an ulcer.

OH-Sen: Voinovich Will Retire

According to Politico and CNN, Sen. George Voinovich (R-OH) will announce that he won't seek reelection in 2010 at some point tomorrow.

I'll have more on this disastrous development for the GOP after his official announcement.

OH-Sen: Voinovich To Retire?

The Columbus Dispatch and Political Machine are both reporting that Sen. George Voinovich (R-OH) is seriously looking at the possibility of retiring. Voinovich is in his 70's and is near the top of most pundits' retirement list among Senators up for reelection in 2010.

The Political Machine article hints that Voinovich might announce his decision regarding his plans for reelection as early as next week.

If Voinovich were to retire, the most likely Republican to replace him would be Rob Portman, a former congressman, Director of the Office of Management and Budget and U.S. Trade Representative.

On the Democratic side, Lt. Gov. Lee Fisher and Rep. Tim Ryan would lead the pack in the Democratic primary if they announced their candidacies and could pose strong challenges to Voinovich or Portman in the general election.

Whether or Voinovich retires or not, this seat will be one the most competitive in the county in 2010, and it should be an interesting one to watch.