South Carolina Prediction (GOP)

Here's my South Carolina Republican primary prediction.

Republicans:
1.) McCain 30%
2.) Huckabee 28%
3.) Thompson 18%
4.) Romney 15%
5.) Paul 5%
6.) Giuliani 4%

This one is a toughie. It's a lot harder to call than the Democratic primary.

McCain now has the support of the establishment that was against him in his crippling 2004 loss here. His war hero past and his experience in foreign policy will turn out a lot of veterans and other South Carolinians to vote for him.

However, I think that he will do poorly among evangelicals. That's where Mike Huckabee comes in.

He should rack up most of the evangelical vote--about 62% of the South Carolina Republican electorate--and should convert some people who are looking for a radical change to the tax system after all of this talk of recession.

McCain should edge out Huckabee, but expect it to be close. It could go either way.

Even though Romney is ceding South Carolina to his three competitors, he should finish in a distant fourth, right behind Fred Thompson.

This loss won't really affect the Romney campaign because he didn't really compete here. Thompson will drop out and probably endorse McCain. Although Huckabee won't win, he will finish close enough to first to battle on in Florida, and probably on Super Tuesday.

Should he win tomorrow, McCain will be in a good position in Florida and the delegate-rich states that vote on Super Tuesday.