With all of the buzz around the Pennsylvania Democratic primary, everyone seemed to forget about the fact that there was a Pennsylvania Republican primary on April 22nd as well.
Even though John McCain has clinched the GOP nomination, a large number of Pennsylvania Republicans voted against him on Tuesday.
About 27% of Republican voters cast their votes for Mike Huckabee, or more numerously, Ron Paul. And since this was a closed primary--registered independents could not vote in either primary--all of those voters were Republicans.
After all of the fuss about how the Democrats are going to be divided in November, what about the Republicans? If 27% of Pennsylvania Republicans are going to vote against their presumptive nominee, what does that mean for McCain's chances?
Will Paul's supporters cast their vote for the likely Libertarian Party candidate, Bob Barr, or maybe even the Democratic nominee? Will Huckabee's evangelical voters--a group McCain has always struggled with-- stay home?
But as long as Hillary and Barack are duking it out, who cares right? Wrong. These two, while mindlessly bickering, are getting all of their baggage out now so it will be old news by the Fall.
Meanwhile, McCain is free and clear to run a relaxed campaign until he has a single opponent, but is getting no media attention. By a getting a free ride right now, McCain will be more vulnerable and untested in the general election.
So anyway, the point I'm trying to make about the Pennsylvania GOP primary results is that McCain still has a lot of uniting within his own party to do before he goes after moderates and independents. McCain will not win a single state this November if 27% of the Republican party stays home or casts their votes against him.
While the Democrats are duking it out, he should take the time to win over those 27% in Pennsylvania, and all across the country.
Showing posts with label 2008 Republican Primary. Show all posts
Showing posts with label 2008 Republican Primary. Show all posts
Sunday, April 27, 2008
Wednesday, March 5, 2008
McCain Reaches 1,191
After last night's blowout victories, John McCain officially became the Republican presidential nominee by reaching the 1,191 delegates needed to clinch it.
Soon after this was confirmed, Mike Huckabee finally ended his campaign for the presidency and offered to support McCain. But don't expect him to do too much before November--he has the 2012 election to prepare for.
Now, this is not huge news. We all knew that McCain clinched the nomination after Mitt Romney dropped out after Super Tuesday. But now, conservatives have no other choice. It's either vote for McCain or stay home.
I am curious to see whether they will embrace him or continue to shun him. And conservative voices like Rush Limbaugh have a large stake in that.
In an attempt to help conservatives transition to McCain, President Bush endorsed him at the White House today. The pundits are trying to figure out whether this will help him or hurt him--and they are pretty divided on the issue.
Well my friends, here's some straight talk for ya. McCain was going to be associated with Bush no matter what. The Democrats were going to paint his campaign as Bush's 3rd term no matter what.
Even though he is vastly unpopular with the general electorate, President Bush still has a large following among conservatives--the same group that McCain is struggling with.
This endorsement can only help him in the long-run. McCain will take advantage of the tight Democratic race to try and unify his deeply divided party, and Bush's endorsement will cause some conservatives to bite the bullet and support McCain, even if it is passive support.
But now that McCain is official nominee, the conversation now turns to who his #2 will be. Here's some advice John McCain: get a young conservative southern governor who knows the economy inside and out. I don't know if such a person exists, but try and include as many of those adjectives in your choice as you can.
I will take a closer look at the contenders for McCain's running-mate over the next few weeks. Besides that speculation, the Republican side is pretty uneventful, if not boring, for the time being.
Soon after this was confirmed, Mike Huckabee finally ended his campaign for the presidency and offered to support McCain. But don't expect him to do too much before November--he has the 2012 election to prepare for.
Now, this is not huge news. We all knew that McCain clinched the nomination after Mitt Romney dropped out after Super Tuesday. But now, conservatives have no other choice. It's either vote for McCain or stay home.
I am curious to see whether they will embrace him or continue to shun him. And conservative voices like Rush Limbaugh have a large stake in that.
In an attempt to help conservatives transition to McCain, President Bush endorsed him at the White House today. The pundits are trying to figure out whether this will help him or hurt him--and they are pretty divided on the issue.
Well my friends, here's some straight talk for ya. McCain was going to be associated with Bush no matter what. The Democrats were going to paint his campaign as Bush's 3rd term no matter what.
Even though he is vastly unpopular with the general electorate, President Bush still has a large following among conservatives--the same group that McCain is struggling with.
This endorsement can only help him in the long-run. McCain will take advantage of the tight Democratic race to try and unify his deeply divided party, and Bush's endorsement will cause some conservatives to bite the bullet and support McCain, even if it is passive support.
But now that McCain is official nominee, the conversation now turns to who his #2 will be. Here's some advice John McCain: get a young conservative southern governor who knows the economy inside and out. I don't know if such a person exists, but try and include as many of those adjectives in your choice as you can.
I will take a closer look at the contenders for McCain's running-mate over the next few weeks. Besides that speculation, the Republican side is pretty uneventful, if not boring, for the time being.
Saturday, February 16, 2008
Why is Huckabee Staying In?
Arkansas Governor Mike Huckabee has played out his role in the race for the Republican nomination. So why doesn't he leave already?
Well, this is a very good question. At first I thought he was just trying to make his case to be McCain's running-mate. And after he lost the Virginia primary, I thought he would butt out and allow McCain to officially wrap up the nomination.
But he didn't. He stayed in, and is still determined to be the nominee. The McCain camp pointed out that it is almost statistically impossible for Huckabee to get the nomination, saying he would need "123% of the remaining delegates."
Also, insiders of the McCain campaign said that it is highly unlikely that McCain would pick Huckabee as a running-mate at this point because he would not appeal to fiscal conservatives at the time of a recession.
I also once thought that Huckabee was hanging in there for the sake of the party, so Romney supporters and other conservatives could have a temporary conservative choice before eventually backing McCain.
But he has proved me wrong once again, and is (selfishly) vowing to fight on, at least until the Texas primary on March 4th. He obviously thinks he still has a chance to win.
The Republican establishment and conservative leaders have been calling for his withdrawal since Super Tuesday so Republicans could officially move beyond the primaries and focus on November.
But now, he is just being a nuisance. He has no chance to get the nomination, or to become McCain's running-mate, and is hurting the party. He's also spoiling the chance of a future bid for president by angering the Republican establishment and the party as a whole.
So frankly, I have no clue as to why Huck is staying in. If you do, please enlighten me.
It's always a virtue to know when to quit.
Well, this is a very good question. At first I thought he was just trying to make his case to be McCain's running-mate. And after he lost the Virginia primary, I thought he would butt out and allow McCain to officially wrap up the nomination.
But he didn't. He stayed in, and is still determined to be the nominee. The McCain camp pointed out that it is almost statistically impossible for Huckabee to get the nomination, saying he would need "123% of the remaining delegates."
Also, insiders of the McCain campaign said that it is highly unlikely that McCain would pick Huckabee as a running-mate at this point because he would not appeal to fiscal conservatives at the time of a recession.
I also once thought that Huckabee was hanging in there for the sake of the party, so Romney supporters and other conservatives could have a temporary conservative choice before eventually backing McCain.
But he has proved me wrong once again, and is (selfishly) vowing to fight on, at least until the Texas primary on March 4th. He obviously thinks he still has a chance to win.
The Republican establishment and conservative leaders have been calling for his withdrawal since Super Tuesday so Republicans could officially move beyond the primaries and focus on November.
But now, he is just being a nuisance. He has no chance to get the nomination, or to become McCain's running-mate, and is hurting the party. He's also spoiling the chance of a future bid for president by angering the Republican establishment and the party as a whole.
So frankly, I have no clue as to why Huck is staying in. If you do, please enlighten me.
It's always a virtue to know when to quit.
Sunday, February 10, 2008
Obama Sweeps; Huck Hangs On
This weekend, Barack Obama pummeled Hillary Clinton in the the Louisiana primary and the Washington, Nebraska, and Maine caucuses. Here are the numbers.
Washington:
1.) Obama 68%
2.) Clinton 31%
Nebraska:
1.) Obama 67%
2.) Clinton 32%
Louisiana:
1.) Obama 57%
2.) Clinton 36%
Maine:
1.) Obama 59%
2.) Clinton 40%
Obama not only won this weekend, he won big. Most media organizations believe that he will be up by about 40 pledged delegates after all of these states are all fully accounted for.
It is difficult to say what this means. He was supposed to win all of these states, but not by this large of a margin, and he took away a lot more delegates from her.
I think this gives him some momentum, especially if he keeps winning up until March 4th, when Texas and Ohio vote (who are likely to favor Hillary).
He is favored to win in the next seven contests, and the delegates could really begin to accumulate, making him the mathematical front-runner.
There are two things that I will be keeping my eye on over the next few weeks:
1.) Obama's margins of victory and the corresponding delegate totals
2.) Where the majority of the superdelegates go
If the superdelegates begin to trend towards Obama, it means that the establishment, as well as the people in most of the states, will be on his side going into an increasingly likely brokered convention.
But I'll talk more about the possibility of a brokered convention as August draws nearer and the results from the rest of the primaries come in.
Expect to see a strong trend for Obama in the weeks before March 4th. But don't expect it to be enough for him to clinch the nomination.
On the Republican side, Mike Huckabee did surprisingly well this weekend in Washington, Kansas, and Louisiana.
Washington:
1.) McCain 26%
2.) Huckabee 24%
3.) Paul 21% (Woah!)
Kansas:
1.) Huckabee 60%
2.) McCain 24%
3.) Paul 11%
Louisiana:
1.) Huckabee 43%
2.) McCain 42%
3.) Paul 5%
As we all know, John McCain is the presumptive Republican nominee. These results don't really matter in the overall delegate count. Huckabee would need a lot of help from his old buddy God to make him the nominee.
As usual, CNN and MSNBC are making a huge deal out of something not at all significant. These are all basically beauty contests that mean nothing and just drag on the primaries while the Republicans should be building up their war chest and preparing for the tough general election to come.
But one thing that did strike me about these results was the very strong opposition to McCain within his own party. So many conservatives are lukewarm at best about McCain, and that really showed this weekend.
And you've got to hand it to Mike Huckabee. He has run a fantastic campaign without money, name recognition, and status in the hierarchy of the Republican party. And right now he's going toe-to-toe with one of the most well-known Republicans in the country.
He even challenged McCain in the moderate/liberal state of Washington, which is way outside of his heartland/southern base. Even though he won't get the nomination, he's run a hell of a campaign and has earned my respect.
But McCain, the presumptive nominee, has a lot of work to do after these primaries are over. First, he has to reunite the broken Republican party, and then he has to run the best campaign in recent history in order to upset the Democrats in November with much less enthusiasm, participation, and cash than his opponent.
And the longer this in-fighting continues between McCain and Huckabee (though it is very civil), the weaker the party becomes in the long-run.
Conservatives need to bite the bullet and line up behind John McCain--quick--because each day that these primaries continue, it's one less day that they can focus on the Democrats in the general election, which is already an uphill battle.
Washington:
1.) Obama 68%
2.) Clinton 31%
Nebraska:
1.) Obama 67%
2.) Clinton 32%
Louisiana:
1.) Obama 57%
2.) Clinton 36%
Maine:
1.) Obama 59%
2.) Clinton 40%
Obama not only won this weekend, he won big. Most media organizations believe that he will be up by about 40 pledged delegates after all of these states are all fully accounted for.
It is difficult to say what this means. He was supposed to win all of these states, but not by this large of a margin, and he took away a lot more delegates from her.
I think this gives him some momentum, especially if he keeps winning up until March 4th, when Texas and Ohio vote (who are likely to favor Hillary).
He is favored to win in the next seven contests, and the delegates could really begin to accumulate, making him the mathematical front-runner.
There are two things that I will be keeping my eye on over the next few weeks:
1.) Obama's margins of victory and the corresponding delegate totals
2.) Where the majority of the superdelegates go
If the superdelegates begin to trend towards Obama, it means that the establishment, as well as the people in most of the states, will be on his side going into an increasingly likely brokered convention.
But I'll talk more about the possibility of a brokered convention as August draws nearer and the results from the rest of the primaries come in.
Expect to see a strong trend for Obama in the weeks before March 4th. But don't expect it to be enough for him to clinch the nomination.
On the Republican side, Mike Huckabee did surprisingly well this weekend in Washington, Kansas, and Louisiana.
Washington:
1.) McCain 26%
2.) Huckabee 24%
3.) Paul 21% (Woah!)
Kansas:
1.) Huckabee 60%
2.) McCain 24%
3.) Paul 11%
Louisiana:
1.) Huckabee 43%
2.) McCain 42%
3.) Paul 5%
As we all know, John McCain is the presumptive Republican nominee. These results don't really matter in the overall delegate count. Huckabee would need a lot of help from his old buddy God to make him the nominee.
As usual, CNN and MSNBC are making a huge deal out of something not at all significant. These are all basically beauty contests that mean nothing and just drag on the primaries while the Republicans should be building up their war chest and preparing for the tough general election to come.
But one thing that did strike me about these results was the very strong opposition to McCain within his own party. So many conservatives are lukewarm at best about McCain, and that really showed this weekend.
And you've got to hand it to Mike Huckabee. He has run a fantastic campaign without money, name recognition, and status in the hierarchy of the Republican party. And right now he's going toe-to-toe with one of the most well-known Republicans in the country.
He even challenged McCain in the moderate/liberal state of Washington, which is way outside of his heartland/southern base. Even though he won't get the nomination, he's run a hell of a campaign and has earned my respect.
But McCain, the presumptive nominee, has a lot of work to do after these primaries are over. First, he has to reunite the broken Republican party, and then he has to run the best campaign in recent history in order to upset the Democrats in November with much less enthusiasm, participation, and cash than his opponent.
And the longer this in-fighting continues between McCain and Huckabee (though it is very civil), the weaker the party becomes in the long-run.
Conservatives need to bite the bullet and line up behind John McCain--quick--because each day that these primaries continue, it's one less day that they can focus on the Democrats in the general election, which is already an uphill battle.
Thursday, February 7, 2008
Mitt Quits; McCain Seals Nomination
Earlier today, Mitt Romney announced that he is "suspending his campaign" for the presidency. This is after Romney spent about $35 million of his own money and did not get much out of it.
This announcement comes as no surprise after his poor Super Tuesday showing, where he only won Massachusetts, Minnesota, and few other tiny states.
But now, the Republican race is finished. With Romney officially out of the way, John McCain will be their nominee. He will have a chance to unite his party and begin to raise money for the general election against either Hillary Clinton or Barack Obama.
He still has a lot of work to do, convincing the many conservatives that are at odds with him, including influential conservative talk show radio hosts like Rush Limbaugh, that he's a true conservative and would represent the party in the White House.
But he has the advantage of starting two or three months earlier than the Democrats. Their race is likely going to go on until June or even later depending on the results of the contests to come.
The big two questions that are arising are:
1.) How much will this head start really help the Republicans in the uphill battle they face?
2.) Who will be McCain's running-mate?
I will be focusing more on the Democratic race until that clears up in the weeks and months to come, but I will try to answer or at least speculate about these questions in the weeks to come as more of the campaign unfolds.
This announcement comes as no surprise after his poor Super Tuesday showing, where he only won Massachusetts, Minnesota, and few other tiny states.
But now, the Republican race is finished. With Romney officially out of the way, John McCain will be their nominee. He will have a chance to unite his party and begin to raise money for the general election against either Hillary Clinton or Barack Obama.
He still has a lot of work to do, convincing the many conservatives that are at odds with him, including influential conservative talk show radio hosts like Rush Limbaugh, that he's a true conservative and would represent the party in the White House.
But he has the advantage of starting two or three months earlier than the Democrats. Their race is likely going to go on until June or even later depending on the results of the contests to come.
The big two questions that are arising are:
1.) How much will this head start really help the Republicans in the uphill battle they face?
2.) Who will be McCain's running-mate?
I will be focusing more on the Democratic race until that clears up in the weeks and months to come, but I will try to answer or at least speculate about these questions in the weeks to come as more of the campaign unfolds.
Tuesday, January 29, 2008
McCain Wins FL; Clinches Nomination
John McCain won the close contest in Florida tonight, and has effectively clinched the nomination. Here are the results.
Republicans:
1.) McCain 36%
2.) Romney 31%
3.) Giuliani 15%
4.) Huckabee 14%
5.) Paul 3%
I thought that Mitt Romney would have the edge with the emphasis on the economy, but it turned out that he and McCain were dead even on the issue according to Florida voters. His credentials on foreign policy put him over the top and gave him a comfortable victory tonight.
He won basically everywhere, and now, unofficially, has won the nomination. I think that he will sweep on Super Tuesday with Huckabee's support--who is looking just ripe for McCain's running-mate.
In addition, Rudy Giuliani, after a disappointing performance tonight, is endorsing McCain tomorrow at the Reagan library in California, right before the CNN debate in Los Angeles.
With no opposition from Giuliani, McCain should win the northeast and California pretty handily, and should get help from Huckabee in the south.
Look for Hillary Clinton and Barack Obama to be focusing on electability before Super Tuesday, and who can beat McCain in November.
Oh, and for those of you who are keeping track at home, I'm 7 for 11 with my predictions so far.
Republicans:
1.) McCain 36%
2.) Romney 31%
3.) Giuliani 15%
4.) Huckabee 14%
5.) Paul 3%
I thought that Mitt Romney would have the edge with the emphasis on the economy, but it turned out that he and McCain were dead even on the issue according to Florida voters. His credentials on foreign policy put him over the top and gave him a comfortable victory tonight.
He won basically everywhere, and now, unofficially, has won the nomination. I think that he will sweep on Super Tuesday with Huckabee's support--who is looking just ripe for McCain's running-mate.
In addition, Rudy Giuliani, after a disappointing performance tonight, is endorsing McCain tomorrow at the Reagan library in California, right before the CNN debate in Los Angeles.
With no opposition from Giuliani, McCain should win the northeast and California pretty handily, and should get help from Huckabee in the south.
Look for Hillary Clinton and Barack Obama to be focusing on electability before Super Tuesday, and who can beat McCain in November.
Oh, and for those of you who are keeping track at home, I'm 7 for 11 with my predictions so far.
Monday, January 28, 2008
Florida Prediction (GOP)
Republicans:
1.) Romney 33%
2.) McCain 31%
3.) Giuliani 18%
4.) Huckabee 14%
5.) Paul 4%
6.) Hunter 0%
I have a feeling that this will be a very close race, but I think that Mitt Romney will win in Florida tomorrow night for these reasons:
1.) The economy is in shambles right now. There is massive panic about the stock market, the mortgage crisis, and growing fear of a recession.
This just happens to be Mitt Romney's favorite issue. As a business executive, and as the man responsible for turning around the financially doomed 2002 Winter Olympics, Floridians will see him as the best candidate to fix the economy.
John McCain knows this, so recently he's tried to take Florida's attention off of the economy, and onto Iraq, his strong suit. In the end, I think the voters will go with the economy, and thus, Romney.
2.) Florida is having a closed primary, meaning that independents won't be allowed to vote, which will hurt McCain.
3.) Money. Romney has outspent McCain by a ton in Florida, which means more air time, which means a more direct appeal to more voters in this very large state.
4.) Giuliani. He and McCain are battling over largely the same voting block: moderates and foreign policy conservative. I think that Giuliani will siphon off enough of those supporters and will cost McCain the victory.
Things to watch for:
-Exit polling on what is the most important issue to voters
-The Giuliani factor
-Results from absentee ballots (should benefit Romney and Giuliani)
1.) Romney 33%
2.) McCain 31%
3.) Giuliani 18%
4.) Huckabee 14%
5.) Paul 4%
6.) Hunter 0%
I have a feeling that this will be a very close race, but I think that Mitt Romney will win in Florida tomorrow night for these reasons:
1.) The economy is in shambles right now. There is massive panic about the stock market, the mortgage crisis, and growing fear of a recession.
This just happens to be Mitt Romney's favorite issue. As a business executive, and as the man responsible for turning around the financially doomed 2002 Winter Olympics, Floridians will see him as the best candidate to fix the economy.
John McCain knows this, so recently he's tried to take Florida's attention off of the economy, and onto Iraq, his strong suit. In the end, I think the voters will go with the economy, and thus, Romney.
2.) Florida is having a closed primary, meaning that independents won't be allowed to vote, which will hurt McCain.
3.) Money. Romney has outspent McCain by a ton in Florida, which means more air time, which means a more direct appeal to more voters in this very large state.
4.) Giuliani. He and McCain are battling over largely the same voting block: moderates and foreign policy conservative. I think that Giuliani will siphon off enough of those supporters and will cost McCain the victory.
Things to watch for:
-Exit polling on what is the most important issue to voters
-The Giuliani factor
-Results from absentee ballots (should benefit Romney and Giuliani)
Sunday, January 27, 2008
McCain, Romney Go Negative in FL
John McCain and Mitt Romney have been getting nasty in Florida as they go neck-and-neck in a seemingly two-way race in the state.
McCain attacked Romney in a brilliant political maneuver saying that he supported a timetable for getting out of Iraq, taking the focus off of the issue of the volatile economy, which is Romney's bread and butter issue.
By doing this, he has drawn Romney into a feud about national security and Iraq--issues where he thinks he is the stronger candidate.
Recent polls show that these two are virtually tied in Florida, and they are battling down to the last vote.
Florida governor Charlie Crist endorsed McCain last night, which can only help McCain in this tight contest, even if it only gets him a few more votes. It's that close.
Although Romney does not have the Florida establishment support, he has a seemingly infinite money supply to make things happen. He is the only candidate left on the Republican side to have substantial amounts of money going into Florida and Super Tuesday.
But all of that aside, I think that the Florida results will come down to the economy vs. national security. If the voters choose the economy as their top concern, Romney will win. If they think that national security and Iraq are more important, it'll be McCain.
McCain attacked Romney in a brilliant political maneuver saying that he supported a timetable for getting out of Iraq, taking the focus off of the issue of the volatile economy, which is Romney's bread and butter issue.
By doing this, he has drawn Romney into a feud about national security and Iraq--issues where he thinks he is the stronger candidate.
Recent polls show that these two are virtually tied in Florida, and they are battling down to the last vote.
Florida governor Charlie Crist endorsed McCain last night, which can only help McCain in this tight contest, even if it only gets him a few more votes. It's that close.
Although Romney does not have the Florida establishment support, he has a seemingly infinite money supply to make things happen. He is the only candidate left on the Republican side to have substantial amounts of money going into Florida and Super Tuesday.
But all of that aside, I think that the Florida results will come down to the economy vs. national security. If the voters choose the economy as their top concern, Romney will win. If they think that national security and Iraq are more important, it'll be McCain.
Thursday, January 24, 2008
Thompson And Kucinich Quit
Just a quick news update.
Fred Thompson announced Tuesday that he is ending his White House bid after a poor showing in the do-or-die state of South Carolina.
This will probably help Huckabee because Thompson siphoned away many evangelicals and social conservatives from Huckabee in South Carolina. But this won't have all too much impact on the race.
Also, Dennis Kucinich decided to end his long-shot candidacy for the Democratic nomination earlier today. Seeing as he had a very small (yet loyal) base among Democrats, this should have no impact on the contest.
Fred Thompson announced Tuesday that he is ending his White House bid after a poor showing in the do-or-die state of South Carolina.
This will probably help Huckabee because Thompson siphoned away many evangelicals and social conservatives from Huckabee in South Carolina. But this won't have all too much impact on the race.
Also, Dennis Kucinich decided to end his long-shot candidacy for the Democratic nomination earlier today. Seeing as he had a very small (yet loyal) base among Democrats, this should have no impact on the contest.
Clinton, McCain Emerge As Front-Runners
After a few recent primary wins, Hillary Clinton and John McCain have emerged as the front-runners of their respective parties.
Clinton won the Nevada caucuses Saturday after pulling off an upset in New Hampshire. Right now she is in excellent position to scoop up the nomination.
Right now, she is basically ceding South Carolina to Barack Obama, and is focusing on the delegate-rich Super Tuesday states of California, New York, and New Jersey.
Even if Obama manages to win South Carolina, he has not campaigned as much on a national scale. Plus, he doesn't have Bill on his side.
As of now, Clinton is in excellent position to carry New York and New Jersey--her home turf. Obama should win Illinois and the south.
That puts their delegate counts at about even. But then comes California, which has by far the most delegates and is viewed as a must-win state on both sides.
Most polls show Clinton up comfortably there, but things could change over the next two weeks as the campaigns get nastier.
California is especially important to Obama because the super delegates in most of the states voting that day will likely side with Clinton--the establishment candidate.
However, Obama has a secret weapon: John Edwards. If he shows poorly in South Carolina--as I think he will--he might drop out, meaning that most of his strong national base of supporters will flock to Obama on Super Tuesday.
But as of now, Clinton is in much better shape nationally than Obama.
On the Republican side, John McCain is now the man to beat. With his recent New Hampshire and South Carolina wins, he is in excellent position for Florida and Super Tuesday.
If he wins Florida, I think it's over. He'll win California, New Jersey, and other delegate-rich states on Super Tuesday. He may even beat Giuliani in his home state.
Right now, McCain has the name recognition, the national stature, and the momentum to go all the way. The only person that I could see stopping him is Mitt Romney.
With the economy taking center stage, Romney's business experience could help him win plenty of delegates on Super Tuesday. And with his deep pockets, he could keep the race going far past Super Tuesday.
But McCain has been through this before, and is in it for the long-haul. Expect more direct attacks on McCain from Giuliani, Romney, and Huckabee as the four-way race for Florida heats up.
We could very well see a Clinton vs. McCain general election if things don't change really really quickly.
Clinton won the Nevada caucuses Saturday after pulling off an upset in New Hampshire. Right now she is in excellent position to scoop up the nomination.
Right now, she is basically ceding South Carolina to Barack Obama, and is focusing on the delegate-rich Super Tuesday states of California, New York, and New Jersey.
Even if Obama manages to win South Carolina, he has not campaigned as much on a national scale. Plus, he doesn't have Bill on his side.
As of now, Clinton is in excellent position to carry New York and New Jersey--her home turf. Obama should win Illinois and the south.
That puts their delegate counts at about even. But then comes California, which has by far the most delegates and is viewed as a must-win state on both sides.
Most polls show Clinton up comfortably there, but things could change over the next two weeks as the campaigns get nastier.
California is especially important to Obama because the super delegates in most of the states voting that day will likely side with Clinton--the establishment candidate.
However, Obama has a secret weapon: John Edwards. If he shows poorly in South Carolina--as I think he will--he might drop out, meaning that most of his strong national base of supporters will flock to Obama on Super Tuesday.
But as of now, Clinton is in much better shape nationally than Obama.
On the Republican side, John McCain is now the man to beat. With his recent New Hampshire and South Carolina wins, he is in excellent position for Florida and Super Tuesday.
If he wins Florida, I think it's over. He'll win California, New Jersey, and other delegate-rich states on Super Tuesday. He may even beat Giuliani in his home state.
Right now, McCain has the name recognition, the national stature, and the momentum to go all the way. The only person that I could see stopping him is Mitt Romney.
With the economy taking center stage, Romney's business experience could help him win plenty of delegates on Super Tuesday. And with his deep pockets, he could keep the race going far past Super Tuesday.
But McCain has been through this before, and is in it for the long-haul. Expect more direct attacks on McCain from Giuliani, Romney, and Huckabee as the four-way race for Florida heats up.
We could very well see a Clinton vs. McCain general election if things don't change really really quickly.
Friday, January 18, 2008
South Carolina Prediction (GOP)
Here's my South Carolina Republican primary prediction.
Republicans:
1.) McCain 30%
2.) Huckabee 28%
3.) Thompson 18%
4.) Romney 15%
5.) Paul 5%
6.) Giuliani 4%
This one is a toughie. It's a lot harder to call than the Democratic primary.
McCain now has the support of the establishment that was against him in his crippling 2004 loss here. His war hero past and his experience in foreign policy will turn out a lot of veterans and other South Carolinians to vote for him.
However, I think that he will do poorly among evangelicals. That's where Mike Huckabee comes in.
He should rack up most of the evangelical vote--about 62% of the South Carolina Republican electorate--and should convert some people who are looking for a radical change to the tax system after all of this talk of recession.
McCain should edge out Huckabee, but expect it to be close. It could go either way.
Even though Romney is ceding South Carolina to his three competitors, he should finish in a distant fourth, right behind Fred Thompson.
This loss won't really affect the Romney campaign because he didn't really compete here. Thompson will drop out and probably endorse McCain. Although Huckabee won't win, he will finish close enough to first to battle on in Florida, and probably on Super Tuesday.
Should he win tomorrow, McCain will be in a good position in Florida and the delegate-rich states that vote on Super Tuesday.
Republicans:
1.) McCain 30%
2.) Huckabee 28%
3.) Thompson 18%
4.) Romney 15%
5.) Paul 5%
6.) Giuliani 4%
This one is a toughie. It's a lot harder to call than the Democratic primary.
McCain now has the support of the establishment that was against him in his crippling 2004 loss here. His war hero past and his experience in foreign policy will turn out a lot of veterans and other South Carolinians to vote for him.
However, I think that he will do poorly among evangelicals. That's where Mike Huckabee comes in.
He should rack up most of the evangelical vote--about 62% of the South Carolina Republican electorate--and should convert some people who are looking for a radical change to the tax system after all of this talk of recession.
McCain should edge out Huckabee, but expect it to be close. It could go either way.
Even though Romney is ceding South Carolina to his three competitors, he should finish in a distant fourth, right behind Fred Thompson.
This loss won't really affect the Romney campaign because he didn't really compete here. Thompson will drop out and probably endorse McCain. Although Huckabee won't win, he will finish close enough to first to battle on in Florida, and probably on Super Tuesday.
Should he win tomorrow, McCain will be in a good position in Florida and the delegate-rich states that vote on Super Tuesday.
Nevada Predictions
Here are my predictions for the Nevada caucuses that take place tomorrow.
Democrats:
1.) Obama 40%
2.) Clinton 37%
3.) Edwards 22%
4.) Kucinich 1%
Republicans:
1.) Romney 35%
2.) McCain 28%
3.) Huckabee 15%
4.) Paul 9%
5.) Giuliani 8%
6.) Thompson 5%
On the Democratic side, it's about two things: unions and Latinos. Hillary Clinton and Barack Obama (and John Edwards) have been vying for these votes that make up so much of the constituency of Nevada Democrats.
Obama has received the most union backing thus far, followed by Clinton, then Edwards. The union workers should give Obama a big boost tomorrow.
However, I think that Clinton will carry the majority of the Latino vote because of her strong ties to that community. In addition, the Latino community, whether they admit or not, may be uncomfortable voting for a black because of the hushed racial tension between them.
Now, there are many Latino union workers, which I think in the end, will ally themselves with their union rather than their views on race. Thus, Obama should win--but not by much.
On the Republican side, this race has been vastly overshadowed by the South Carolina primary taking place on the same day. Mitt Romney and Ron Paul are the only candidates who campaigned there. The rest are focused on winning South Carolina.
Mitt Romney has basically ceded South Carolina to John McCain, Mike Huckabee, and Fred Thompson and is focused on the state that everyone is ignoring (Nevada actually has more delegates than South Carolina).
Being the only real first-tier candidate to campaign here, and with the help of Mormons in the eastern part of the state, Mitt Romney should win here tomorrow--pretty handily.
Democrats:
1.) Obama 40%
2.) Clinton 37%
3.) Edwards 22%
4.) Kucinich 1%
Republicans:
1.) Romney 35%
2.) McCain 28%
3.) Huckabee 15%
4.) Paul 9%
5.) Giuliani 8%
6.) Thompson 5%
On the Democratic side, it's about two things: unions and Latinos. Hillary Clinton and Barack Obama (and John Edwards) have been vying for these votes that make up so much of the constituency of Nevada Democrats.
Obama has received the most union backing thus far, followed by Clinton, then Edwards. The union workers should give Obama a big boost tomorrow.
However, I think that Clinton will carry the majority of the Latino vote because of her strong ties to that community. In addition, the Latino community, whether they admit or not, may be uncomfortable voting for a black because of the hushed racial tension between them.
Now, there are many Latino union workers, which I think in the end, will ally themselves with their union rather than their views on race. Thus, Obama should win--but not by much.
On the Republican side, this race has been vastly overshadowed by the South Carolina primary taking place on the same day. Mitt Romney and Ron Paul are the only candidates who campaigned there. The rest are focused on winning South Carolina.
Mitt Romney has basically ceded South Carolina to John McCain, Mike Huckabee, and Fred Thompson and is focused on the state that everyone is ignoring (Nevada actually has more delegates than South Carolina).
Being the only real first-tier candidate to campaign here, and with the help of Mormons in the eastern part of the state, Mitt Romney should win here tomorrow--pretty handily.
Wednesday, January 16, 2008
Romney Wins MI; Race in Disarray
Wrong again. That puts me at 3/5. Here's the final Michigan results.
Republicans:
1.) Romney 39%
2.) McCain 30%
3.) Huckabee 16%
4.) Paul 6%
5.) Thompson 4%
6.) Giuliani 3%
This was a huge win for Mitt Romney. He needed to win to stay in this race, and his vast amounts of money and attention got him that win.
Michigan voters were most concerned about the economy, and they liked Romney's business background and the fact that he was a native son.
McCain just plain had no money to spend and is much more focused on South Carolina at the moment. He may have used too much straight talk when saying that "Michigan jobs aren't coming back. Sometimes, people just don't want to hear the truth.
Last night, most of McCain's voting constituency was composed of Democrats, independents, and people who disapproved with President Bush.
Romney overwhelming won among self-described Republicans, with McCain finishing a distant second in that category.
Now, all eyes turn to South Carolina.
McCain's problem in South Carolina is the same as it was in 2000. His constituency is not conservative enough in that highly conservative state. In 2000, Bush won the vast majority of conservatives in the state and effectively knocked McCain out of the race.
To be fair, this is a different time and a different race than it was eight years ago. But McCain has to find a way to appeal to the conservative base and win the crucial South Carolina primary.
But I'll have more on that race later this week.
Now, the GOP race is in disarray. Huckabee won in Iowa, McCain won in New Hampshire, and Romney won in Michigan (and Wyoming).
Some say that Rudy Giuliani's strategy is finally paying off. He hoped that the field would be cluttered and in disarray come Florida and Super Tuesday. And it is.
He's pinning all of his hopes on Florida, which votes in about two weeks.
There are still five men who are still plausibly viable for the Republican nomination. This race is wide open.
Republicans:
1.) Romney 39%
2.) McCain 30%
3.) Huckabee 16%
4.) Paul 6%
5.) Thompson 4%
6.) Giuliani 3%
This was a huge win for Mitt Romney. He needed to win to stay in this race, and his vast amounts of money and attention got him that win.
Michigan voters were most concerned about the economy, and they liked Romney's business background and the fact that he was a native son.
McCain just plain had no money to spend and is much more focused on South Carolina at the moment. He may have used too much straight talk when saying that "Michigan jobs aren't coming back. Sometimes, people just don't want to hear the truth.
Last night, most of McCain's voting constituency was composed of Democrats, independents, and people who disapproved with President Bush.
Romney overwhelming won among self-described Republicans, with McCain finishing a distant second in that category.
Now, all eyes turn to South Carolina.
McCain's problem in South Carolina is the same as it was in 2000. His constituency is not conservative enough in that highly conservative state. In 2000, Bush won the vast majority of conservatives in the state and effectively knocked McCain out of the race.
To be fair, this is a different time and a different race than it was eight years ago. But McCain has to find a way to appeal to the conservative base and win the crucial South Carolina primary.
But I'll have more on that race later this week.
Now, the GOP race is in disarray. Huckabee won in Iowa, McCain won in New Hampshire, and Romney won in Michigan (and Wyoming).
Some say that Rudy Giuliani's strategy is finally paying off. He hoped that the field would be cluttered and in disarray come Florida and Super Tuesday. And it is.
He's pinning all of his hopes on Florida, which votes in about two weeks.
There are still five men who are still plausibly viable for the Republican nomination. This race is wide open.
Monday, January 14, 2008
My Michigan Prediction (GOP)
Here are my predictions for tomorrow's Michigan Republican Primary.
Republicans:
1.) McCain 35%
2.) Romney 32%
3.) Huckabee 17%
4.) Giuliani 6%
5.) Paul 6%
6.) Thompson 4%
Despite Romney's first two losses, he and McCain should finish neck and neck here.
The economy is the hot button issue among Michigan Republicans. Michigan's economy is very reliant upon the automobile industry and is getting hit hard by the mortgage crisis.
Also, Michigan now has the highest unemployment rate in the country, at 7.4%. There is much concern about the Michigan's economy and the fear of job loss and further recession in the state.
Mitt Romney may have roots in Michigan, but his appeal among Michigan Republicans is his expertise and experience on the economy is the driving force behind his campaign here.
However, I think that McCain's momentum from New Hampshire will prove to be insurmountable.
Among Republicans, it should be a fairly even split between the two.
But Democrats and independents--who tend to side with McCain--may prove to be a factor because the Democratic National Committee stripped Michigan of all of its delegates because it moved its primary ahead of February 5th without permission. This means that many Democrats and independents alike are likely to vote in the Republican primary.
I think that their vote will give McCain enough of an edge to defeat Romney, who will have a tough time recovering after winning his third "silver."
Mike Huckabee, who does not have too much appeal among Michigan Republicans, should finish in a solid third, while Rudy Giuliani and Ron Paul will duke it out for a distant fourth.
Huckabee, however, should be rooting for Romney--his sworn enemy from Iowa--tomorrow night. A Romney win means a McCain loss, which is just what Huckabee needs going into South Carolina. The two are essentially tied there according to the most recent polls.
Right now my gut is telling me Romney will win and my brain is telling me McCain will win.
But if Romney wins tomorrow, this race will be even more wide open than it already is.
Republicans:
1.) McCain 35%
2.) Romney 32%
3.) Huckabee 17%
4.) Giuliani 6%
5.) Paul 6%
6.) Thompson 4%
Despite Romney's first two losses, he and McCain should finish neck and neck here.
The economy is the hot button issue among Michigan Republicans. Michigan's economy is very reliant upon the automobile industry and is getting hit hard by the mortgage crisis.
Also, Michigan now has the highest unemployment rate in the country, at 7.4%. There is much concern about the Michigan's economy and the fear of job loss and further recession in the state.
Mitt Romney may have roots in Michigan, but his appeal among Michigan Republicans is his expertise and experience on the economy is the driving force behind his campaign here.
However, I think that McCain's momentum from New Hampshire will prove to be insurmountable.
Among Republicans, it should be a fairly even split between the two.
But Democrats and independents--who tend to side with McCain--may prove to be a factor because the Democratic National Committee stripped Michigan of all of its delegates because it moved its primary ahead of February 5th without permission. This means that many Democrats and independents alike are likely to vote in the Republican primary.
I think that their vote will give McCain enough of an edge to defeat Romney, who will have a tough time recovering after winning his third "silver."
Mike Huckabee, who does not have too much appeal among Michigan Republicans, should finish in a solid third, while Rudy Giuliani and Ron Paul will duke it out for a distant fourth.
Huckabee, however, should be rooting for Romney--his sworn enemy from Iowa--tomorrow night. A Romney win means a McCain loss, which is just what Huckabee needs going into South Carolina. The two are essentially tied there according to the most recent polls.
Right now my gut is telling me Romney will win and my brain is telling me McCain will win.
But if Romney wins tomorrow, this race will be even more wide open than it already is.
Friday, January 11, 2008
Romney Needs Michigan
I've called Mitt Romney's campaign "fading," "struggling," and even "doomed."
Now, I'm making my position perfectly that Mitt Romney has almost no chance to win the nomination.
He calls his second-place finish in Iowa and New Hampshire "silvers," but I call them complete failures. This man has ridiculous amounts of money and is using lots of it to fund his own campaign.
After vastly outspending Mike Huckabee in Iowa, and then John McCain in New Hampshire, he still has only won Wyoming.
If his money isn't the problem, then what is?
Clearly it's him. He has flipped-flopped more times than a fish out of water, and people don't trust him one bit.
He has also majorly changed his campaign message after each state.
Before Iowa, he defended Bush and the Reagan coalition. After Iowa, when Huckabee and Obama won on the "change" platform, all of the sudden he was the candidate of change. After New Hampshire, where Hillary cried and won, he got all choked up in Michigan when speaking about his father.
See the pattern?
Republicans can see right through him, which is why he has little chance in Michigan and no chance in South Carolina. He is putting a lot of his resources and most of his time into Michigan, at least until Tuesday, and needs a win there to stay alive.
I don't think his personal story about being born in Michigan or about how his daddy was governor there back in the '60s will have much sway among Michigan Republicans.
Even if he does win Michigan, I don't think he'll catch on in time in South Carolina and in the Super Tuesday states.
The only scenario I can see for him getting the nomination is if he wins Michigan and Nevada, Huckabee wins South Carolina, and McCain loses Florida.
That would virtually knock McCain out, and Romney would once again get the backing of the Republican establishment. But that scenario is incredibly unlikely.
If he loses the Michigan primary, don't expect him to drop out immediately. His money should keep him afloat until Super Tuesday. Expect his campaign to evaporate into total oblivion.
Now, I'm making my position perfectly that Mitt Romney has almost no chance to win the nomination.
He calls his second-place finish in Iowa and New Hampshire "silvers," but I call them complete failures. This man has ridiculous amounts of money and is using lots of it to fund his own campaign.
After vastly outspending Mike Huckabee in Iowa, and then John McCain in New Hampshire, he still has only won Wyoming.
If his money isn't the problem, then what is?
Clearly it's him. He has flipped-flopped more times than a fish out of water, and people don't trust him one bit.
He has also majorly changed his campaign message after each state.
Before Iowa, he defended Bush and the Reagan coalition. After Iowa, when Huckabee and Obama won on the "change" platform, all of the sudden he was the candidate of change. After New Hampshire, where Hillary cried and won, he got all choked up in Michigan when speaking about his father.
See the pattern?
Republicans can see right through him, which is why he has little chance in Michigan and no chance in South Carolina. He is putting a lot of his resources and most of his time into Michigan, at least until Tuesday, and needs a win there to stay alive.
I don't think his personal story about being born in Michigan or about how his daddy was governor there back in the '60s will have much sway among Michigan Republicans.
Even if he does win Michigan, I don't think he'll catch on in time in South Carolina and in the Super Tuesday states.
The only scenario I can see for him getting the nomination is if he wins Michigan and Nevada, Huckabee wins South Carolina, and McCain loses Florida.
That would virtually knock McCain out, and Romney would once again get the backing of the Republican establishment. But that scenario is incredibly unlikely.
If he loses the Michigan primary, don't expect him to drop out immediately. His money should keep him afloat until Super Tuesday. Expect his campaign to evaporate into total oblivion.
Wednesday, January 9, 2008
Comeback Kids Win in NH
Well, I'll admit it. I called the Democratic side way wrong--along with the media and 99% of the pundits. But let's take a look at the official results from the New Hampshire primary.
Democrats:
1.) Clinton 39%
2.) Obama 37%
3.) Edwards 17%
4.) Richardson 5%
5.) Kucinich 1%
6.) Gravel 0%
Republicans:
1.) McCain 37%
2.) Romney 32%
3.) Huckabee 11%
4.) Giuliani 9%
5.) Paul 8%
6.) Thompson 1%
7.) Hunter 1%
There are many reasons being brought forth as to why Hillary Clinton won the New Hampshire Democratic primary last night, despite poor showing in the polls.
The media and the Barack Obama campaign are saying that it was her emotional moment on Monday at a diner in New Hampshire that propelled her to victory.
Sorry guys, not even close.
I think that that incident may have shown some undecided voters that she has a more human side, but it hardly propelled her to victory.
She was down by at least 8 percentage points in most polls and predictions (including my own) leading up to last night. One nearly-tearful moment can't overcome that much of a deficit.
It was really a combination of her incredible ground support, organization, and history with the people of New Hampshire that helped her get an essential win last night. This was a huge win for the Clinton campaign.
Last night's results were certainly a blow to the Obama campaign, considering the poll numbers leading up to yesterday.
But Obama is diligently pressing on, first stopping by in New Jersey, then to a fundraiser in Manhattan, then on to Nevada and South Carolina--the next two states to vote in this nomination process.
On the Republican side, the results were not shocking. John McCain's victory was expected, but still nonetheless remarkable considering his position in the campaign just this past summer, where he nearly ran out of money. This was truly a comeback for the Arizona senator.
New Hampshire Republican voters and independents looked past his liberal stance on immigration and voted for him over the struggling Mitt Romney.
McCain won by a large margin among registered independents--as he did in 2000--but was virtually tied with Romney among registered Republicans.
Romney seems to be fading quickly in this race. He is focusing all of his money and attention on the next state to vote--Michigan--his home state where his father was also governor.
He is hoping that this personal connection with the state will help to keep his campaign alive. If he loses there, expect him to at least consider dropping out.
Mike Huckabee came in third last night, followed closely by Rudy Giuliani and Ron Paul. Huckabee is looking forward to South Carolina, where he thinks his evangelical influence and southern roots will help him win in that crucial state in a week and a half.
Well, there you have it. A surprise finish for the Democrats, an expected finish for the Republicans.
Here's two things I learned from last night: never trust the polls, and never ever trust the media's predictions.
Democrats:
1.) Clinton 39%
2.) Obama 37%
3.) Edwards 17%
4.) Richardson 5%
5.) Kucinich 1%
6.) Gravel 0%
Republicans:
1.) McCain 37%
2.) Romney 32%
3.) Huckabee 11%
4.) Giuliani 9%
5.) Paul 8%
6.) Thompson 1%
7.) Hunter 1%
There are many reasons being brought forth as to why Hillary Clinton won the New Hampshire Democratic primary last night, despite poor showing in the polls.
The media and the Barack Obama campaign are saying that it was her emotional moment on Monday at a diner in New Hampshire that propelled her to victory.
Sorry guys, not even close.
I think that that incident may have shown some undecided voters that she has a more human side, but it hardly propelled her to victory.
She was down by at least 8 percentage points in most polls and predictions (including my own) leading up to last night. One nearly-tearful moment can't overcome that much of a deficit.
It was really a combination of her incredible ground support, organization, and history with the people of New Hampshire that helped her get an essential win last night. This was a huge win for the Clinton campaign.
Last night's results were certainly a blow to the Obama campaign, considering the poll numbers leading up to yesterday.
But Obama is diligently pressing on, first stopping by in New Jersey, then to a fundraiser in Manhattan, then on to Nevada and South Carolina--the next two states to vote in this nomination process.
On the Republican side, the results were not shocking. John McCain's victory was expected, but still nonetheless remarkable considering his position in the campaign just this past summer, where he nearly ran out of money. This was truly a comeback for the Arizona senator.
New Hampshire Republican voters and independents looked past his liberal stance on immigration and voted for him over the struggling Mitt Romney.
McCain won by a large margin among registered independents--as he did in 2000--but was virtually tied with Romney among registered Republicans.
Romney seems to be fading quickly in this race. He is focusing all of his money and attention on the next state to vote--Michigan--his home state where his father was also governor.
He is hoping that this personal connection with the state will help to keep his campaign alive. If he loses there, expect him to at least consider dropping out.
Mike Huckabee came in third last night, followed closely by Rudy Giuliani and Ron Paul. Huckabee is looking forward to South Carolina, where he thinks his evangelical influence and southern roots will help him win in that crucial state in a week and a half.
Well, there you have it. A surprise finish for the Democrats, an expected finish for the Republicans.
Here's two things I learned from last night: never trust the polls, and never ever trust the media's predictions.
Monday, January 7, 2008
New Hampshire Predictions
Well, here I go again, putting my reputation on the line. The following are my predictions for tomorrow's New Hampshire primary.
Democrats:
1.) Obama 41%
2.) Clinton 32%
3.) Edwards 19%
4.) Richardson 7%
5.) Kucinich 1%
6.) Gravel 0%
Republicans:
1.) McCain 36%
2.) Romney 30%
3.) Huckabee 14%
4.) Paul 11%
5.) Giuliani 8%
6.) Thompson 3%
7.) Hunter 0%
First, I'll go through the Democrats.
Change change change change change. If I hear that word one more time, I might lose it. Barack Obama, Hillary Clinton, and John Edwards have all tried to explain to voters that they would be the best fit to bring change to America.
Well, the voters have decided. That agent of change is Barack Obama. In Iowa, the overwhelming majority supported him because of that message. Now he is leading in double digits in most recent New Hampshire polls.
Clinton just can't seem to convince people that she is the best fit to bring about change, and Edwards just has no money or northern appeal.
Let me say this right now. This is a two person race. Edwards is gone. After I saw that he did not come in first in Iowa, I knew he was a goner.
Independents should be the big story tomorrow. 44% of the likely New Hampshire voters are registered as independents, but may vote in either primary. Independents absolutely adore Obama. More so than McCain, who won New Hampshire in 2000 because of them.
They don't seem to respond to Clinton (or Edwards for that matter). And it is for this reason that I think Obama will once again surge ahead of these two and this contest won't even be close.
Edwards should finish at around 20% and Richardson will do better than expected at 7%, putting in good position for the eventual nominee's running mate.
Now, the more interesting side: the Republicans.
Let me start by saying that this race is wide open. However Mike Huckabee fares tomorrow night, he is still a prominent figure in this race because of his win in Iowa and his current lead in South Carolina.
The best case scenario for him is to come in a strong third in New Hampshire and Michigan. Then, he will be in a fairly good position to face the survivor of those two states in South Carolina.
But let's get back to New Hampshire. This is also a two person race between John McCain and Mitt Romney.
Right now, Romney has the slight edge over Republicans, but with independents factored in, McCain has a good lead. Unfortunately for Romney, independents will play a key role tomorrow.
McCain will lose the majority of independent voters to Obama tomorrow, but will still carry enough of them to slide comfortably by Mitt Romney.
Romney suddenly became the candidate of change once he landed in New Hampshire on Wednesday, and Republicans and independents alike will see right through it, like they saw through his opportunism in Iowa. He'll be rooting for Obama tomorrow night.
There is also a 3-way battle for third place among the Republicans between Mike Huckabee, Ron Paul, and Rudy Giuliani. This is what I will be watching for tomorrow night.
All of them are polling with 5 percentage points of each other, with Huckabee generally receiving the slight lead. But Paul's strong libertarian base in New Hampshire and massive fundraising ability should propel him into fourth place right behind Huckabee.
Giuliani's national campaign won't do him any good here, especially after receiving less than 4% in Iowa.
I think that Mike Gravel and maybe Duncan Hunter will drop out after tomorrow.
Those are my predictions. Hopefully my prediction success will continue.
Democrats:
1.) Obama 41%
2.) Clinton 32%
3.) Edwards 19%
4.) Richardson 7%
5.) Kucinich 1%
6.) Gravel 0%
Republicans:
1.) McCain 36%
2.) Romney 30%
3.) Huckabee 14%
4.) Paul 11%
5.) Giuliani 8%
6.) Thompson 3%
7.) Hunter 0%
First, I'll go through the Democrats.
Change change change change change. If I hear that word one more time, I might lose it. Barack Obama, Hillary Clinton, and John Edwards have all tried to explain to voters that they would be the best fit to bring change to America.
Well, the voters have decided. That agent of change is Barack Obama. In Iowa, the overwhelming majority supported him because of that message. Now he is leading in double digits in most recent New Hampshire polls.
Clinton just can't seem to convince people that she is the best fit to bring about change, and Edwards just has no money or northern appeal.
Let me say this right now. This is a two person race. Edwards is gone. After I saw that he did not come in first in Iowa, I knew he was a goner.
Independents should be the big story tomorrow. 44% of the likely New Hampshire voters are registered as independents, but may vote in either primary. Independents absolutely adore Obama. More so than McCain, who won New Hampshire in 2000 because of them.
They don't seem to respond to Clinton (or Edwards for that matter). And it is for this reason that I think Obama will once again surge ahead of these two and this contest won't even be close.
Edwards should finish at around 20% and Richardson will do better than expected at 7%, putting in good position for the eventual nominee's running mate.
Now, the more interesting side: the Republicans.
Let me start by saying that this race is wide open. However Mike Huckabee fares tomorrow night, he is still a prominent figure in this race because of his win in Iowa and his current lead in South Carolina.
The best case scenario for him is to come in a strong third in New Hampshire and Michigan. Then, he will be in a fairly good position to face the survivor of those two states in South Carolina.
But let's get back to New Hampshire. This is also a two person race between John McCain and Mitt Romney.
Right now, Romney has the slight edge over Republicans, but with independents factored in, McCain has a good lead. Unfortunately for Romney, independents will play a key role tomorrow.
McCain will lose the majority of independent voters to Obama tomorrow, but will still carry enough of them to slide comfortably by Mitt Romney.
Romney suddenly became the candidate of change once he landed in New Hampshire on Wednesday, and Republicans and independents alike will see right through it, like they saw through his opportunism in Iowa. He'll be rooting for Obama tomorrow night.
There is also a 3-way battle for third place among the Republicans between Mike Huckabee, Ron Paul, and Rudy Giuliani. This is what I will be watching for tomorrow night.
All of them are polling with 5 percentage points of each other, with Huckabee generally receiving the slight lead. But Paul's strong libertarian base in New Hampshire and massive fundraising ability should propel him into fourth place right behind Huckabee.
Giuliani's national campaign won't do him any good here, especially after receiving less than 4% in Iowa.
I think that Mike Gravel and maybe Duncan Hunter will drop out after tomorrow.
Those are my predictions. Hopefully my prediction success will continue.
Sunday, January 6, 2008
Clinton, Romney Attacked in Debates
Last night, the leading candidates of both parties met in Manchester New Hampshire at an ABC/WMUR/Facebook debate.
The Republicans took the stage first. Mitt Romney and John McCain, the two front-runners, have been sparring with ads and harsh criticisms of each other in New Hampshire.
So all eyes were on these two and Mike Huckabee, the Iowa victor, during last night's debate.
Right off the bat, pretty much every single candidate pounced on Mitt Romney. They not only attacked his stances on issues, but his character and opportunism.
McCain had some good one-liners against Romney last night such as, "We disagree on a lot of issues. But I agree, you are the candidate of change," referring to his change on issues and on message.
When Romney told Huckabee to stop characterizing his positions, Huckabee retorted, "Which one?"
These candidates all saw a chance to knock the rich and powerful Romney out of the race last night. If I had to declare a winner last night, I would say it was Huckabee or McCain. They both made their positions clear and looked strong against a wounded Romney.
Next came the Democrats.
The big question before the night was, "Who will John Edwards attack?" Some thought that he would attack Obama as the front-runner and others thought that he would try to form a "change" coalition with Obama and knock Clinton out of the race.
Well, last night, Edwards pounced on Clinton and made nice with Obama. They double-teamed her, if you will, saying that she was the status-quo candidate and a Washington insider.
I thought she did a terrific job defending herself last night. She repelled the constant barrage of attacks upon her, as she has done since she was the first lady.
Her one mistake was getting very very angry and negative after Edwards said, "You know, I didn't hear these kinds of attacks from Senator Clinton when she was ahead." I think she may have lost her head a little after that, but overall, she handled it pretty well.
She even found time to be humorous when she was asked to explain why voters found her less likable than her opponents. "Well, that hurts my feelings, but I'll try to go on."
To me, Edwards sounded like a broken record. All I kept hearing from him is "middle class" and "special interests" and "my father was a mill worker" and "take down big corporations." He did support his position on these issues well, but he seems to be lacking in variety as a candidate.
And finally, Obama did what he intended to do last night: not make any big mistakes. Out of all of the candidates, he seemed the most fatigued. His voice was hoarse and he looked exhausted when he wasn't speaking.
He may not have won the debate--I think Clinton did--but he did enough last night to remain the front-runner.
The Republicans took the stage first. Mitt Romney and John McCain, the two front-runners, have been sparring with ads and harsh criticisms of each other in New Hampshire.
So all eyes were on these two and Mike Huckabee, the Iowa victor, during last night's debate.
Right off the bat, pretty much every single candidate pounced on Mitt Romney. They not only attacked his stances on issues, but his character and opportunism.
McCain had some good one-liners against Romney last night such as, "We disagree on a lot of issues. But I agree, you are the candidate of change," referring to his change on issues and on message.
When Romney told Huckabee to stop characterizing his positions, Huckabee retorted, "Which one?"
These candidates all saw a chance to knock the rich and powerful Romney out of the race last night. If I had to declare a winner last night, I would say it was Huckabee or McCain. They both made their positions clear and looked strong against a wounded Romney.
Next came the Democrats.
The big question before the night was, "Who will John Edwards attack?" Some thought that he would attack Obama as the front-runner and others thought that he would try to form a "change" coalition with Obama and knock Clinton out of the race.
Well, last night, Edwards pounced on Clinton and made nice with Obama. They double-teamed her, if you will, saying that she was the status-quo candidate and a Washington insider.
I thought she did a terrific job defending herself last night. She repelled the constant barrage of attacks upon her, as she has done since she was the first lady.
Her one mistake was getting very very angry and negative after Edwards said, "You know, I didn't hear these kinds of attacks from Senator Clinton when she was ahead." I think she may have lost her head a little after that, but overall, she handled it pretty well.
She even found time to be humorous when she was asked to explain why voters found her less likable than her opponents. "Well, that hurts my feelings, but I'll try to go on."
To me, Edwards sounded like a broken record. All I kept hearing from him is "middle class" and "special interests" and "my father was a mill worker" and "take down big corporations." He did support his position on these issues well, but he seems to be lacking in variety as a candidate.
And finally, Obama did what he intended to do last night: not make any big mistakes. Out of all of the candidates, he seemed the most fatigued. His voice was hoarse and he looked exhausted when he wasn't speaking.
He may not have won the debate--I think Clinton did--but he did enough last night to remain the front-runner.
Saturday, January 5, 2008
Romney Wins Wyoming - Who Cares?
Yeah...I bet you didn't even know Wyoming had its caucuses today. Honestly, I forgot, and I'm sure I'm not alone.
Wyoming has a population of exactly five people.
The least populous state in the country has twelve national delegates at stake and has no impact at all on the Republican race as a whole (the Democratic caucuses will take place on March 3rd).
This is after they pushed their primary ahead of February 5th without the approval of the Republican Party, and got stripped of half of its national delegates.
Today, Mitt Romney took in 67% and eight delegates, Fred Thompson had 25% and three delegates, and Duncan Hunter--the long-shot--finished with 8% and one delegate.
It is thought that the Mormons, representing 10% of the state, helped him win. He also paid the most attention to this state, which was one visit and few pamphlets in the mail.
Is this a big win for Romney? Absolutely not.
Will he use this is speeches in New Hampshire in the hope that he can be seen as electable and try to slow the bleeding in his doomed campaign? Absolutely.
Wyoming has a population of exactly five people.
The least populous state in the country has twelve national delegates at stake and has no impact at all on the Republican race as a whole (the Democratic caucuses will take place on March 3rd).
This is after they pushed their primary ahead of February 5th without the approval of the Republican Party, and got stripped of half of its national delegates.
Today, Mitt Romney took in 67% and eight delegates, Fred Thompson had 25% and three delegates, and Duncan Hunter--the long-shot--finished with 8% and one delegate.
It is thought that the Mormons, representing 10% of the state, helped him win. He also paid the most attention to this state, which was one visit and few pamphlets in the mail.
Is this a big win for Romney? Absolutely not.
Will he use this is speeches in New Hampshire in the hope that he can be seen as electable and try to slow the bleeding in his doomed campaign? Absolutely.
Iowa Fallout
Well, Iowa is finally over and done with. But that doesn't mean it's legacy is over.
There is much speculation on how much momentum Barack Obama and Mike Huckabee would carry out of victories in Iowa.
What does this mean for the two victors and the many losers coming into New Hampshire on Tuesday?
Iowa proved that young people and independents are major players in this process. Now more than ever. They came out to support Obama which helped him squash the competition in Iowa.
The equivalent on the GOP side was evangelicals, who made Huckabee the clear winner.
Going into New Hampshire, Obama's win seems more significant than Huckabee's. There is likely to be many young and independent voters on the Democratic side, who will most likely support Obama.
In response, Hillary Clinton and John Edwards, Obama's biggest competition, are trying to reach out to young voters in New Hampshire to try and make up the difference there.
With only five days in between the Iowa caucuses and the New Hampshire primaries, Clinton and Edwards are scrambling to claw their way back to the top and stop Obama's momentum. Clinton is expected to get very negative in the next three days to stop the bleeding.
Overall, Obama has better ground support in New Hampshire. He has met with more people and has better grassroots support and get-out-the-vote organization than Clinton.
His schedule up until Tuesday is filled with more public events than hers, which is surprising. I thought she would have been trying to meet with as many voters as possible like her husband did in 1992. This decision could prove fatal for her campaign if she loses again to Obama.
Meanwhile, on the Republican side, the man to beat is John McCain. He greatly benefited from Mitt Romney's loss, who is expected to drop in the polls after the devastating loss.
Romney has once again changed his message, and is focusing on change itself after Mike Huckabee won on that platform in Iowa. He attacked John McCain today saying that he is a Washington insider and would not change a thing.
Romney has changed his message over and over again, seemingly just to appeal to voters. But it has not worked. The people of Iowa saw right through him, and so will the people of New Hampshire.
There is also a battle for third place between Mike Huckabee, Ron Paul, and Rudy Giuliani. Huckabee expects his Iowa victory to land him to that position, but Ron Paul's massive fundraising and libertarian base in New Hampshire might challenge that.
Giuliani hasn't devoted all of his efforts to New Hampshire, but more so than in Iowa. He is hoping that a third place finish here could give him the media recognition he needs for running the national campaign that he intends to run.
Both Obama and McCain come into New Hampshire as front-runners, with more direct contact with voters. Clinton and Romney hope to defeat their respective opponents based on their credentials--despite their poor showing in Iowa.
There is much speculation on how much momentum Barack Obama and Mike Huckabee would carry out of victories in Iowa.
What does this mean for the two victors and the many losers coming into New Hampshire on Tuesday?
Iowa proved that young people and independents are major players in this process. Now more than ever. They came out to support Obama which helped him squash the competition in Iowa.
The equivalent on the GOP side was evangelicals, who made Huckabee the clear winner.
Going into New Hampshire, Obama's win seems more significant than Huckabee's. There is likely to be many young and independent voters on the Democratic side, who will most likely support Obama.
In response, Hillary Clinton and John Edwards, Obama's biggest competition, are trying to reach out to young voters in New Hampshire to try and make up the difference there.
With only five days in between the Iowa caucuses and the New Hampshire primaries, Clinton and Edwards are scrambling to claw their way back to the top and stop Obama's momentum. Clinton is expected to get very negative in the next three days to stop the bleeding.
Overall, Obama has better ground support in New Hampshire. He has met with more people and has better grassroots support and get-out-the-vote organization than Clinton.
His schedule up until Tuesday is filled with more public events than hers, which is surprising. I thought she would have been trying to meet with as many voters as possible like her husband did in 1992. This decision could prove fatal for her campaign if she loses again to Obama.
Meanwhile, on the Republican side, the man to beat is John McCain. He greatly benefited from Mitt Romney's loss, who is expected to drop in the polls after the devastating loss.
Romney has once again changed his message, and is focusing on change itself after Mike Huckabee won on that platform in Iowa. He attacked John McCain today saying that he is a Washington insider and would not change a thing.
Romney has changed his message over and over again, seemingly just to appeal to voters. But it has not worked. The people of Iowa saw right through him, and so will the people of New Hampshire.
There is also a battle for third place between Mike Huckabee, Ron Paul, and Rudy Giuliani. Huckabee expects his Iowa victory to land him to that position, but Ron Paul's massive fundraising and libertarian base in New Hampshire might challenge that.
Giuliani hasn't devoted all of his efforts to New Hampshire, but more so than in Iowa. He is hoping that a third place finish here could give him the media recognition he needs for running the national campaign that he intends to run.
Both Obama and McCain come into New Hampshire as front-runners, with more direct contact with voters. Clinton and Romney hope to defeat their respective opponents based on their credentials--despite their poor showing in Iowa.
Subscribe to:
Comments (Atom)
Posts
