Gov. Sarah Palin (R) announced that she will be holding a fundraiser for the re-election campaign of Sen. Lisa Murkowski (R)--ending speculation that she will challenge Murkowski in the GOP primary in 2010.
This essentially clears the path for Murkowski to win re-election and makes it so the Republican party will not have to deal with a media-frenzied, expensive and nasty primary next year.
Palin has not yet announced if she plans on running for re-election in 2010 as she gears up for the 2012 presidential race.
Wednesday, April 8, 2009
Monday, April 6, 2009
NY: Gillibrand Raises $2.3 Million
In an email to her supporters, Sen. Kirsten Gillibrand (D-NY) announced that she has raised $2.3 million in the two months since she has been appointed.
Gillibrand is proving her mettle as a prodigious fundraiser with this impressive sum. And figures like these may prove to deter other Democrats, such as Reps. Carolyn McCarthy and Carolyn Maloney, from challenging Gillibrand in the primary--and it proves that taking her on won't be cheap.
But as of now, she is still not well-known in the state. According to a new Quinnipiac poll, nearly two-thirds of New Yorkers don't know enough about her to form an opinion of her. So she clearly has some work to do to pick up these lagging name recognition numbers.
The poll also found that Gillibrand narrowly trails McCarthy in a Democratic primary match-up, 33% to 29%, but--much like Gillibrand--68% don't know enough about McCarthy to form an opinion of her.
In a general election match-up, Gillibrand leads Rep. Peter King (R-NY) 40% to 28%.
Gillibrand is proving her mettle as a prodigious fundraiser with this impressive sum. And figures like these may prove to deter other Democrats, such as Reps. Carolyn McCarthy and Carolyn Maloney, from challenging Gillibrand in the primary--and it proves that taking her on won't be cheap.
But as of now, she is still not well-known in the state. According to a new Quinnipiac poll, nearly two-thirds of New Yorkers don't know enough about her to form an opinion of her. So she clearly has some work to do to pick up these lagging name recognition numbers.
The poll also found that Gillibrand narrowly trails McCarthy in a Democratic primary match-up, 33% to 29%, but--much like Gillibrand--68% don't know enough about McCarthy to form an opinion of her.
In a general election match-up, Gillibrand leads Rep. Peter King (R-NY) 40% to 28%.
Thursday, April 2, 2009
FL: Mack Won't Run For Senate
Rep. Connie Mack (R-FL) wrote a letter to Florida Gov. Charlie Crist (R) today informing him that he will not be running for the state's open Senate seat in 2010, according to the Associated Press.
Crist is openly considering running for the seat next year instead of seeking re-election as governor, and Mack had been one the top Florida Republicans publicly taking a look at jumping in--but instead, he is throwing his full support behind Crist.
Mack wrote to Crist: "I will be your strongest supporter and champion -- regardless of whether you seek re-election or election to the Senate."
This further fuels the speculation that Crist is indeed planning on running for Senate rather than for another term in Tallahassee. The only Republican who might stand up to Crist in the GOP primary is former state House Speaker Marco Rubio, who formed an exploratory committee earlier this month. But he has said earlier that if Crist jumped in the race, he would probably run for governor.
Whether it is Rubio or somebody else, Crist--if he runs--will almost undoubtedly face some sort of opposition from the right in the Republican primary, as he has been getting a bit chummy with President Obama and the left of late.
Crist is openly considering running for the seat next year instead of seeking re-election as governor, and Mack had been one the top Florida Republicans publicly taking a look at jumping in--but instead, he is throwing his full support behind Crist.
Mack wrote to Crist: "I will be your strongest supporter and champion -- regardless of whether you seek re-election or election to the Senate."
This further fuels the speculation that Crist is indeed planning on running for Senate rather than for another term in Tallahassee. The only Republican who might stand up to Crist in the GOP primary is former state House Speaker Marco Rubio, who formed an exploratory committee earlier this month. But he has said earlier that if Crist jumped in the race, he would probably run for governor.
Whether it is Rubio or somebody else, Crist--if he runs--will almost undoubtedly face some sort of opposition from the right in the Republican primary, as he has been getting a bit chummy with President Obama and the left of late.
Is Chris Dodd the New Jim Bunning?
The results of a new Quinnipiac poll should be sending shivers down the spines of Sen. Chris Dodd (D-CT) and the DSCC. The survey finds Dodd in deep trouble for 2010, with only 33% of voters approving of the job he is doing and 58% disapproving--truly scary sign for a 30-year incumbent, especially one in a blue state like Connecticut.
A whopping 74% blamed Dodd for the AIG bonuses, while 54% don’t believe Dodd is honest and trustworthy. Dodd also only garners the support of half of his own party.
He also shows some poor numbers when matched up against some Republicans in the general election. He trails former Rep. Rob Simmons, the likely Republican nominee, by 16 points, 50-34. He also trails little-known state Sen. Sam Caligiuri 41-37 and former ambassador Tom Foley 43-35.
These terrible numbers can be attributed to the firestorm of criticism regarding his role in the AIG bonuses fiasco, his ties to Countrywide, and his failed 2008 presidential bid that seemed to piss off his constituents in Connecticut.
Because we are still in the midst of the financial crisis and Dodd plays a central role in the process of doling out money to banks and companies like AIG as chairman of the Senate Banking Committee, we can be sure that these numbers aren't likely to improve much in the near future.
Thus, Dodd's position is starting to look more and more like Sen. Jim Bunning's (R-KY). Both are clearly the most endangered incumbents of their respective parties and have extremely high negatives. Both are from states that--given their political leanings--should give them inherent advantages for re-election. And in both cases, another candidate from their party would have a better shot of retaining the seat that they would.
The Republican establishment not-so-secretly tried to get Bunning to retire, and it turned into a nasty back-and-forth between Bunning and the leaders of his own party. Their next thought was to possibly support a primary opponent to Bunning, but the Senator threatened to sue the NRSC for going against their pledge of supporting Republican incumbents, turning into yet another nasty exchange. Finally, NRSC chairman John Cornyn publicly agreed to back Bunning in 2010, but the situation was handled very poorly by Cornyn and Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell and there still appears to be bad blood between them and Bunning.
The Democrats can learn from the mistakes of the way that the GOP handled Bunning when trying to figure out what to do about Dodd. They have already said that they will not try to ask him to step down before 2010. Said one senior Democratic operative: “It’s up to Senator Dodd, there’s no indication that he’s willing to do that. We’re not going to have a Jim Bunning situation our hands."
Another option they might have to get around having Dodd run against someone like Simmons in 2010 is to primary him, presumably with a popular statewide official like state Attorney General Richard Blumenthal, but Democratic insiders seem to think that there is no way Blumenthal would challenge Dodd in a primary.
Some other options for Democratic alternatives to Dodd can be found in the state's congressional delegation. Rep. John Larson would be unlikely to run because of his position in the House leadership, and Rep. Jim Himes has direct ties to the very financial world that has recently come under fire. But Reps. Rosa DeLauro, Chris Murphy and Joe Courtney could all be compelling alternatives.
But the only other option besides asking Dodd to step down and supporting a primary challenger that the DSCC has left--and the one they will most likely take--is to rally around the embattled Senator and hope that this is his point of rock bottom. His numbers have nowhere to go but up...right?
Anyway, I think that there is a good possibility that Dodd and Bunning--now indisputably the two most vulnerable incumbents of the 2010 cycle--will both lose their seats next November, effectively canceling each other's losses out. If that is the case, the Democrats will have to look elsewhere for their 60th seat.
P.S. I'm officially moving this race into the "Toss-Up" category.
Update: When asked if he might seek a new candidate, DSCC chairman Bob Menendez replied, "Are you serious? Chris Dodd is going to be re-elected. He's a great senator."
A whopping 74% blamed Dodd for the AIG bonuses, while 54% don’t believe Dodd is honest and trustworthy. Dodd also only garners the support of half of his own party.
He also shows some poor numbers when matched up against some Republicans in the general election. He trails former Rep. Rob Simmons, the likely Republican nominee, by 16 points, 50-34. He also trails little-known state Sen. Sam Caligiuri 41-37 and former ambassador Tom Foley 43-35.
These terrible numbers can be attributed to the firestorm of criticism regarding his role in the AIG bonuses fiasco, his ties to Countrywide, and his failed 2008 presidential bid that seemed to piss off his constituents in Connecticut.
Because we are still in the midst of the financial crisis and Dodd plays a central role in the process of doling out money to banks and companies like AIG as chairman of the Senate Banking Committee, we can be sure that these numbers aren't likely to improve much in the near future.
Thus, Dodd's position is starting to look more and more like Sen. Jim Bunning's (R-KY). Both are clearly the most endangered incumbents of their respective parties and have extremely high negatives. Both are from states that--given their political leanings--should give them inherent advantages for re-election. And in both cases, another candidate from their party would have a better shot of retaining the seat that they would.
The Republican establishment not-so-secretly tried to get Bunning to retire, and it turned into a nasty back-and-forth between Bunning and the leaders of his own party. Their next thought was to possibly support a primary opponent to Bunning, but the Senator threatened to sue the NRSC for going against their pledge of supporting Republican incumbents, turning into yet another nasty exchange. Finally, NRSC chairman John Cornyn publicly agreed to back Bunning in 2010, but the situation was handled very poorly by Cornyn and Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell and there still appears to be bad blood between them and Bunning.
The Democrats can learn from the mistakes of the way that the GOP handled Bunning when trying to figure out what to do about Dodd. They have already said that they will not try to ask him to step down before 2010. Said one senior Democratic operative: “It’s up to Senator Dodd, there’s no indication that he’s willing to do that. We’re not going to have a Jim Bunning situation our hands."
Another option they might have to get around having Dodd run against someone like Simmons in 2010 is to primary him, presumably with a popular statewide official like state Attorney General Richard Blumenthal, but Democratic insiders seem to think that there is no way Blumenthal would challenge Dodd in a primary.
Some other options for Democratic alternatives to Dodd can be found in the state's congressional delegation. Rep. John Larson would be unlikely to run because of his position in the House leadership, and Rep. Jim Himes has direct ties to the very financial world that has recently come under fire. But Reps. Rosa DeLauro, Chris Murphy and Joe Courtney could all be compelling alternatives.
But the only other option besides asking Dodd to step down and supporting a primary challenger that the DSCC has left--and the one they will most likely take--is to rally around the embattled Senator and hope that this is his point of rock bottom. His numbers have nowhere to go but up...right?
Anyway, I think that there is a good possibility that Dodd and Bunning--now indisputably the two most vulnerable incumbents of the 2010 cycle--will both lose their seats next November, effectively canceling each other's losses out. If that is the case, the Democrats will have to look elsewhere for their 60th seat.
P.S. I'm officially moving this race into the "Toss-Up" category.
Update: When asked if he might seek a new candidate, DSCC chairman Bob Menendez replied, "Are you serious? Chris Dodd is going to be re-elected. He's a great senator."
Wednesday, April 1, 2009
No Winner Yet in NY-20
After a long, bitterly fought, expensive special election campaign to replace Kirsten Gillibrand in New York's 20th congressional district--we still have no winner.
Democrat Scott Murphy leads Republican Jim Tedisco by 65 votes, 77,344 to 77,279, with 100% of precincts reporting. That lead is merely symbolic at this point, because between 6,000 and 10,000 absentee and military ballots have yet to be counted, and probably won't be counted until at least April 13.
Neither side won or lost big here, but in this case a tie goes to the Democrats. But overall, maintaining the status quo is not good news for the Republicans, especially in a conservative upstate district in NY-20. They invested a lot of money into this race, and they really should have won back a district that should rightfully be theirs.
So neither side really gets to spin this their way--Republicans can't say that this is a sign of the people's rejections of Obama's policies, and Democrats can't say this is validation of their leadership.
This one isn't over and won't be for at least two weeks, but expect updates and analysis of the results of this race to be few and far between until then.
Update: Due to the carelessness of some election officials and some recounting, Scott Murphy's lead has shrunk to 13 votes. The Scorecard reports: "Three counties--Essex, Greene and Delaware--haven't re-canvassed the vote yet, and won't do so until later in the week." That could alter the vote total even more.
Democrat Scott Murphy leads Republican Jim Tedisco by 65 votes, 77,344 to 77,279, with 100% of precincts reporting. That lead is merely symbolic at this point, because between 6,000 and 10,000 absentee and military ballots have yet to be counted, and probably won't be counted until at least April 13.
Neither side won or lost big here, but in this case a tie goes to the Democrats. But overall, maintaining the status quo is not good news for the Republicans, especially in a conservative upstate district in NY-20. They invested a lot of money into this race, and they really should have won back a district that should rightfully be theirs.
So neither side really gets to spin this their way--Republicans can't say that this is a sign of the people's rejections of Obama's policies, and Democrats can't say this is validation of their leadership.
This one isn't over and won't be for at least two weeks, but expect updates and analysis of the results of this race to be few and far between until then.
Update: Due to the carelessness of some election officials and some recounting, Scott Murphy's lead has shrunk to 13 votes. The Scorecard reports: "Three counties--Essex, Greene and Delaware--haven't re-canvassed the vote yet, and won't do so until later in the week." That could alter the vote total even more.
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