In an email to her supporters, Sen. Kirsten Gillibrand (D-NY) announced that she has raised $2.3 million in the two months since she has been appointed.
Gillibrand is proving her mettle as a prodigious fundraiser with this impressive sum. And figures like these may prove to deter other Democrats, such as Reps. Carolyn McCarthy and Carolyn Maloney, from challenging Gillibrand in the primary--and it proves that taking her on won't be cheap.
But as of now, she is still not well-known in the state. According to a new Quinnipiac poll, nearly two-thirds of New Yorkers don't know enough about her to form an opinion of her. So she clearly has some work to do to pick up these lagging name recognition numbers.
The poll also found that Gillibrand narrowly trails McCarthy in a Democratic primary match-up, 33% to 29%, but--much like Gillibrand--68% don't know enough about McCarthy to form an opinion of her.
In a general election match-up, Gillibrand leads Rep. Peter King (R-NY) 40% to 28%.
Showing posts with label Polls. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Polls. Show all posts
Monday, April 6, 2009
Thursday, April 2, 2009
Is Chris Dodd the New Jim Bunning?
The results of a new Quinnipiac poll should be sending shivers down the spines of Sen. Chris Dodd (D-CT) and the DSCC. The survey finds Dodd in deep trouble for 2010, with only 33% of voters approving of the job he is doing and 58% disapproving--truly scary sign for a 30-year incumbent, especially one in a blue state like Connecticut.
A whopping 74% blamed Dodd for the AIG bonuses, while 54% don’t believe Dodd is honest and trustworthy. Dodd also only garners the support of half of his own party.
He also shows some poor numbers when matched up against some Republicans in the general election. He trails former Rep. Rob Simmons, the likely Republican nominee, by 16 points, 50-34. He also trails little-known state Sen. Sam Caligiuri 41-37 and former ambassador Tom Foley 43-35.
These terrible numbers can be attributed to the firestorm of criticism regarding his role in the AIG bonuses fiasco, his ties to Countrywide, and his failed 2008 presidential bid that seemed to piss off his constituents in Connecticut.
Because we are still in the midst of the financial crisis and Dodd plays a central role in the process of doling out money to banks and companies like AIG as chairman of the Senate Banking Committee, we can be sure that these numbers aren't likely to improve much in the near future.
Thus, Dodd's position is starting to look more and more like Sen. Jim Bunning's (R-KY). Both are clearly the most endangered incumbents of their respective parties and have extremely high negatives. Both are from states that--given their political leanings--should give them inherent advantages for re-election. And in both cases, another candidate from their party would have a better shot of retaining the seat that they would.
The Republican establishment not-so-secretly tried to get Bunning to retire, and it turned into a nasty back-and-forth between Bunning and the leaders of his own party. Their next thought was to possibly support a primary opponent to Bunning, but the Senator threatened to sue the NRSC for going against their pledge of supporting Republican incumbents, turning into yet another nasty exchange. Finally, NRSC chairman John Cornyn publicly agreed to back Bunning in 2010, but the situation was handled very poorly by Cornyn and Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell and there still appears to be bad blood between them and Bunning.
The Democrats can learn from the mistakes of the way that the GOP handled Bunning when trying to figure out what to do about Dodd. They have already said that they will not try to ask him to step down before 2010. Said one senior Democratic operative: “It’s up to Senator Dodd, there’s no indication that he’s willing to do that. We’re not going to have a Jim Bunning situation our hands."
Another option they might have to get around having Dodd run against someone like Simmons in 2010 is to primary him, presumably with a popular statewide official like state Attorney General Richard Blumenthal, but Democratic insiders seem to think that there is no way Blumenthal would challenge Dodd in a primary.
Some other options for Democratic alternatives to Dodd can be found in the state's congressional delegation. Rep. John Larson would be unlikely to run because of his position in the House leadership, and Rep. Jim Himes has direct ties to the very financial world that has recently come under fire. But Reps. Rosa DeLauro, Chris Murphy and Joe Courtney could all be compelling alternatives.
But the only other option besides asking Dodd to step down and supporting a primary challenger that the DSCC has left--and the one they will most likely take--is to rally around the embattled Senator and hope that this is his point of rock bottom. His numbers have nowhere to go but up...right?
Anyway, I think that there is a good possibility that Dodd and Bunning--now indisputably the two most vulnerable incumbents of the 2010 cycle--will both lose their seats next November, effectively canceling each other's losses out. If that is the case, the Democrats will have to look elsewhere for their 60th seat.
P.S. I'm officially moving this race into the "Toss-Up" category.
Update: When asked if he might seek a new candidate, DSCC chairman Bob Menendez replied, "Are you serious? Chris Dodd is going to be re-elected. He's a great senator."
A whopping 74% blamed Dodd for the AIG bonuses, while 54% don’t believe Dodd is honest and trustworthy. Dodd also only garners the support of half of his own party.
He also shows some poor numbers when matched up against some Republicans in the general election. He trails former Rep. Rob Simmons, the likely Republican nominee, by 16 points, 50-34. He also trails little-known state Sen. Sam Caligiuri 41-37 and former ambassador Tom Foley 43-35.
These terrible numbers can be attributed to the firestorm of criticism regarding his role in the AIG bonuses fiasco, his ties to Countrywide, and his failed 2008 presidential bid that seemed to piss off his constituents in Connecticut.
Because we are still in the midst of the financial crisis and Dodd plays a central role in the process of doling out money to banks and companies like AIG as chairman of the Senate Banking Committee, we can be sure that these numbers aren't likely to improve much in the near future.
Thus, Dodd's position is starting to look more and more like Sen. Jim Bunning's (R-KY). Both are clearly the most endangered incumbents of their respective parties and have extremely high negatives. Both are from states that--given their political leanings--should give them inherent advantages for re-election. And in both cases, another candidate from their party would have a better shot of retaining the seat that they would.
The Republican establishment not-so-secretly tried to get Bunning to retire, and it turned into a nasty back-and-forth between Bunning and the leaders of his own party. Their next thought was to possibly support a primary opponent to Bunning, but the Senator threatened to sue the NRSC for going against their pledge of supporting Republican incumbents, turning into yet another nasty exchange. Finally, NRSC chairman John Cornyn publicly agreed to back Bunning in 2010, but the situation was handled very poorly by Cornyn and Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell and there still appears to be bad blood between them and Bunning.
The Democrats can learn from the mistakes of the way that the GOP handled Bunning when trying to figure out what to do about Dodd. They have already said that they will not try to ask him to step down before 2010. Said one senior Democratic operative: “It’s up to Senator Dodd, there’s no indication that he’s willing to do that. We’re not going to have a Jim Bunning situation our hands."
Another option they might have to get around having Dodd run against someone like Simmons in 2010 is to primary him, presumably with a popular statewide official like state Attorney General Richard Blumenthal, but Democratic insiders seem to think that there is no way Blumenthal would challenge Dodd in a primary.
Some other options for Democratic alternatives to Dodd can be found in the state's congressional delegation. Rep. John Larson would be unlikely to run because of his position in the House leadership, and Rep. Jim Himes has direct ties to the very financial world that has recently come under fire. But Reps. Rosa DeLauro, Chris Murphy and Joe Courtney could all be compelling alternatives.
But the only other option besides asking Dodd to step down and supporting a primary challenger that the DSCC has left--and the one they will most likely take--is to rally around the embattled Senator and hope that this is his point of rock bottom. His numbers have nowhere to go but up...right?
Anyway, I think that there is a good possibility that Dodd and Bunning--now indisputably the two most vulnerable incumbents of the 2010 cycle--will both lose their seats next November, effectively canceling each other's losses out. If that is the case, the Democrats will have to look elsewhere for their 60th seat.
P.S. I'm officially moving this race into the "Toss-Up" category.
Update: When asked if he might seek a new candidate, DSCC chairman Bob Menendez replied, "Are you serious? Chris Dodd is going to be re-elected. He's a great senator."
Tuesday, March 31, 2009
Hodes Leads Sununu in NH; Dodd Draws Second Challenger
A new American Research Group poll out of New Hampshire shows Rep. Paul Hodes, the likely Democratic nominee, leading former Sen. John Sununu (R) 42% to 36%.
Further, Hodes leads Sununu 38% to 31% among independents--a tell-tale sign for the rest of the independently-minded (if not libertarian) state.
The Scorecard reports: "Sununu has not yet announced his intentions, but New Hampshire GOP operatives are skeptical he will run after losing his seat to Sen. Jeanne Shaheen last year. These numbers probably won’t encourage him."
Over in Connecticut, Sen. Chris Dodd (D)--arguably the most endangered Democratic incumbent in 2010--drew a second challenger today in the form of state Sen. Sam Caligiuri (R).
Caligiuri, a conservative, will first have to get past former Rep. Rob Simmons, a moderate, in the Republican primary. That will be no easy task, as the GOP establishment seems to be behind Simmons, believing that in a blue state like Connecticut, a moderate Republican will have a better shot at the seat rather than a conservative.
Further, Hodes leads Sununu 38% to 31% among independents--a tell-tale sign for the rest of the independently-minded (if not libertarian) state.
The Scorecard reports: "Sununu has not yet announced his intentions, but New Hampshire GOP operatives are skeptical he will run after losing his seat to Sen. Jeanne Shaheen last year. These numbers probably won’t encourage him."
Over in Connecticut, Sen. Chris Dodd (D)--arguably the most endangered Democratic incumbent in 2010--drew a second challenger today in the form of state Sen. Sam Caligiuri (R).
Caligiuri, a conservative, will first have to get past former Rep. Rob Simmons, a moderate, in the Republican primary. That will be no easy task, as the GOP establishment seems to be behind Simmons, believing that in a blue state like Connecticut, a moderate Republican will have a better shot at the seat rather than a conservative.
Friday, March 27, 2009
MO: Carnahan Leading in GOP Internal Poll
A new Republican internal poll commissioned by Wilson Research Strategies out of Missouri shows Secretary of State Robin Carnahan (D) leading both of her potential Republican opponents--Rep. Roy Blunt and former state Treasurer Sarah Steelman--for the state's open Senate seat in 2010. The poll was commissioned as Republican internal poll.
Carnahan leads Blunt 47% to 44%, and she leads Steelman 47% to 39%. The survey has a 4% margin of error. The poll also found that Blunt has very high negatives among Democrats and Independents, presumably from his partisan past as a House Republican leader.
On the Democratic side, Carnahan will likely not face any trouble in the primary, and with the announcement of her candidacy she immediately became the probable Democratic nominee.
On the Republican side, things won't be that simple. Blunt has already announced his candidacy and Steelman has shown signs that she will jump in as well, setting up a fierce and probably nasty GOP primary that could drive up the negatives and drain the cash of the eventual nominee.
The Republican establishment is lining up behind Blunt, while Steelman would run as an Washington outsider and a reformer. The two have already had nasty exchanges (Steelman called Blunt "another white guy in a suit") even though Steelman has not officially entered the contest.
The bloodier the fight is for the Republican nomination, the better the chances are that Robin Carnahan will be headed off to Washington in 2011.
Thursday, March 26, 2009
CT: Dodd Edges Out Simmons in Poll
A new Research 2000 poll finds that Sen. Chris Dodd (D) is vulnerable in his 2010 re-election race, but his outlook is not as bleak as the recent negative headlines and controversies surrounding the Senator would indicate.
His favorable-unfavorable numbers clock in at 47-40, which is not great, but that fact that he is still in the black in the midst of all the this controversy is good news for Dodd.
When matched up against former Rep. Rob Simmons (R) (who has already announced his candidacy and started taking shots at Dodd), Dodd edges him out 45% to 40%. Simmons' favorable-unfavorable clocks in at 41-18.
When matched up against the even lesser known state Sen. Sam Caligiuri (R), Dodd trounces him 51% to 30%.
Is this great news for the Dodd camp? Absolutely not. Being under 50% as a well-entrenched and long-standing incumbent is never good news.
But with the recent intense outlash against Dodd--who has the displeasure of being the chairman of the Senate Banking Committee in a time of bank failure--Team Dodd will take any kind of lead over someone like Simmons, who led Dodd in a poll earlier this month.
His favorable-unfavorable numbers clock in at 47-40, which is not great, but that fact that he is still in the black in the midst of all the this controversy is good news for Dodd.
When matched up against former Rep. Rob Simmons (R) (who has already announced his candidacy and started taking shots at Dodd), Dodd edges him out 45% to 40%. Simmons' favorable-unfavorable clocks in at 41-18.
When matched up against the even lesser known state Sen. Sam Caligiuri (R), Dodd trounces him 51% to 30%.
Is this great news for the Dodd camp? Absolutely not. Being under 50% as a well-entrenched and long-standing incumbent is never good news.
But with the recent intense outlash against Dodd--who has the displeasure of being the chairman of the Senate Banking Committee in a time of bank failure--Team Dodd will take any kind of lead over someone like Simmons, who led Dodd in a poll earlier this month.
Thursday Catch-Up
Pennsylvania: A new Quinnipiac poll shows former Rep. Pat Toomey leading Sen. Arlen Specter 41% to 27% in a Republican primary match-up, with 28% of Republicans undecided. It's no surprise that Specter has already been jolting to the right.
Arkansas: A new poll from Public Policy Polling shows incumbent Sen. Blanche Lincoln (D) leading two potential Republican challengers, former US Attorney Tim Griffin and state Sen. Gilbert Baker. Lincoln leads Griffin 46-38 and leads Baker 48-37. However, these numbers are not all entirely encouraging for Lincoln, as she is under 50% in both contests and she only has a 45-40 approve-disapprove rating.
North Carolina: This is the last poll of this post, I promise. A new Civitas poll has state Attorney General Roy Cooper (D) narrowly leading incumbent Sen. Richard Burr (R), 41% to 38%. But note that 57% of respondents have no opinion of Burr, so take this poll with a grain of salt.
Connecticut: CNBC host Larry Kudlow announced on his show that he will not be running against Sen. Chris Dodd (D) in 2010. Kudlow, who would have run as a Republican, might have been scared off by the fact that a top-tier Republican candidate--former Rep. Rob Simmons--has already jumped in the race. But Kudlow maintains that he never seriously entertained the possibility of running.
California: In what must be a sigh of relief to California Democrats, Gov. Arnold Schwarzenegger (R) announced that he will not run against incumbent Sen. Barbara Boxer (D) in 2010. Said Schwarzenegger: "I am not running for anything, so no one could threaten me, because I'm not running for Senate, I'm not running for Congress, I'm not running for another term as governor." There you have it folks. Looks like the only Republican Boxer has to potentially worry about is former Hewlett-Packard CEO Carly Fiorina, and recent polls have shown that even she wouldn't be a threat.
Arkansas: A new poll from Public Policy Polling shows incumbent Sen. Blanche Lincoln (D) leading two potential Republican challengers, former US Attorney Tim Griffin and state Sen. Gilbert Baker. Lincoln leads Griffin 46-38 and leads Baker 48-37. However, these numbers are not all entirely encouraging for Lincoln, as she is under 50% in both contests and she only has a 45-40 approve-disapprove rating.
North Carolina: This is the last poll of this post, I promise. A new Civitas poll has state Attorney General Roy Cooper (D) narrowly leading incumbent Sen. Richard Burr (R), 41% to 38%. But note that 57% of respondents have no opinion of Burr, so take this poll with a grain of salt.
Connecticut: CNBC host Larry Kudlow announced on his show that he will not be running against Sen. Chris Dodd (D) in 2010. Kudlow, who would have run as a Republican, might have been scared off by the fact that a top-tier Republican candidate--former Rep. Rob Simmons--has already jumped in the race. But Kudlow maintains that he never seriously entertained the possibility of running.
California: In what must be a sigh of relief to California Democrats, Gov. Arnold Schwarzenegger (R) announced that he will not run against incumbent Sen. Barbara Boxer (D) in 2010. Said Schwarzenegger: "I am not running for anything, so no one could threaten me, because I'm not running for Senate, I'm not running for Congress, I'm not running for another term as governor." There you have it folks. Looks like the only Republican Boxer has to potentially worry about is former Hewlett-Packard CEO Carly Fiorina, and recent polls have shown that even she wouldn't be a threat.
Thursday, March 19, 2009
NC: Burr Still Looks Vulnerable
A new Public Policy Polling survey in North Carolina shows that incumbent Sen. Richard Burr (R) continues to look vulnerable as he gears up for his first re-election challenge in 2010.
The first bit of troubling numbers lie in his approval ratings. Only 35% of respondents approve of his performance while 32% disapprove and 33% have no opinion either way. That means one-third of North Carolina voters don't know enough about him to have any kind of opinion of him after more than four years in office. It's really bad if you have to spread awareness about yourself as an incumbent.
The next bit of troubling numbers come in the hypothetical general election match-ups. When matched up against Secretary of State Elaine Marshall (D), Burr leads 43% to 35%. When matched up against a generic Democratic opponent Burr fares worse, leading 42% to 38%.
Burr has consistently been under the 50% threshold in all of the polls released so far, a tell-tale sign of vulnerability and a chance for the Democrats to flip yet another southern seat. The Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee is trying to get state Attorney Gen. Roy Cooper (D) to run, seeing him as their strongest challenger to Burr.
In an earlier PPP poll Cooper led Burr by 5 points, doing much better against the Senator than any other Democrat. So far Cooper has said that he is still considering jumping in the race, but he will wait a few more months before a final decision.
The first bit of troubling numbers lie in his approval ratings. Only 35% of respondents approve of his performance while 32% disapprove and 33% have no opinion either way. That means one-third of North Carolina voters don't know enough about him to have any kind of opinion of him after more than four years in office. It's really bad if you have to spread awareness about yourself as an incumbent.
The next bit of troubling numbers come in the hypothetical general election match-ups. When matched up against Secretary of State Elaine Marshall (D), Burr leads 43% to 35%. When matched up against a generic Democratic opponent Burr fares worse, leading 42% to 38%.
Burr has consistently been under the 50% threshold in all of the polls released so far, a tell-tale sign of vulnerability and a chance for the Democrats to flip yet another southern seat. The Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee is trying to get state Attorney Gen. Roy Cooper (D) to run, seeing him as their strongest challenger to Burr.
In an earlier PPP poll Cooper led Burr by 5 points, doing much better against the Senator than any other Democrat. So far Cooper has said that he is still considering jumping in the race, but he will wait a few more months before a final decision.
Wednesday, March 18, 2009
OH: Poll Shows Candidates With Low Name ID
A new Quinnipiac poll out of Ohio shows that most voters are unfamiliar with the major contenders for the state's open Senate seat.
In a Republican primary, former Rep. Rob Portman leads state Auditor Mary Taylor 31% to 14%, with 52% undecided. Portman has already announced his candidacy, has the establishment support, and is widely expected to be the GOP nominee. Taylor has not made her intentions clear yet, but has not ruled out a run.
In a Democratic primary, Lt. Gov. Lee Fisher leads Secretary of State Jennifer Brunner 18% to 14%, with 46% undecided. Both Fisher and Brunner have already formally announced their candidacies, setting up a competitive primary with lots of undecided voters left to win over.
Here are the head-to-head numbers:
Fisher--41%
Portman--33%
Fisher--41%
Taylor--31%
Brunner--39%
Portman--34%
Brunner--38%
Taylor--31%
It looks like either Democrat starts off with the slight advantage over either Republican, but it is still very very early and the name identification is low for all four of the aforementioned candidates.
67% of Ohioans don't know who Portman is, while over half of voters are not familiar with Fisher or Brunner. Clearly these candidates have a lot of room to work with to improve their numbers.
So until name identification shoots up for these three, we can basically ignore the majority of results of polls for this race.
In a Republican primary, former Rep. Rob Portman leads state Auditor Mary Taylor 31% to 14%, with 52% undecided. Portman has already announced his candidacy, has the establishment support, and is widely expected to be the GOP nominee. Taylor has not made her intentions clear yet, but has not ruled out a run.
In a Democratic primary, Lt. Gov. Lee Fisher leads Secretary of State Jennifer Brunner 18% to 14%, with 46% undecided. Both Fisher and Brunner have already formally announced their candidacies, setting up a competitive primary with lots of undecided voters left to win over.
Here are the head-to-head numbers:
Fisher--41%
Portman--33%
Fisher--41%
Taylor--31%
Brunner--39%
Portman--34%
Brunner--38%
Taylor--31%
It looks like either Democrat starts off with the slight advantage over either Republican, but it is still very very early and the name identification is low for all four of the aforementioned candidates.
67% of Ohioans don't know who Portman is, while over half of voters are not familiar with Fisher or Brunner. Clearly these candidates have a lot of room to work with to improve their numbers.
So until name identification shoots up for these three, we can basically ignore the majority of results of polls for this race.
Monday, March 16, 2009
Monday Recap
Connecticut: Former Rep. Rob Simmons (R), emboldened by a recent poll that showed him running evenly with Sen. Chris Dodd (D), announced that he will be challenging the longtime incumbent in 2010. Simmons was undoubtedly the NRSC's top recruit to run against Dodd, and Simmons' entry in the race is a huge get for them. Dodd will now be one of the NRSC's top targets to take down in 2010. In other Connecticut Senate news, Sen. Joe Lieberman (I) announced that he will back Dodd in 2010 even thought Dodd supported Ned Lamont--Lieberman's Democratic rival--in 2006.
New Hampshire: Rep. Carol Shea-Porter (D) announced that she will not run for New Hampshire's open Senate seat in 2010. Shea-Porter was reportedly taking a serious look at the race and her candidacy was attracting much speculation. But now that she's out of the picture, it looks like Rep. Paul Hodes (D)--who has already announced his candidacy--is the likely Democratic nominee for the seat. No Republican candidates have emerged yet, but it appears as though the GOP's bench is pretty thin.
Louisiana: Sen. David Vitter (R)--who is plagued by his involvement in the 2007 DC Madam prostitution scandal--caught a big break this weekend when Family Research Council President Tony Perkins (R) announced that he would not challenge Vitter in the 2010 GOP primary and that he will be supporting the Senator. Perkins would have have been a formidable opponent with both his strong conservative bona fides and strong institutional support. He is the second Republican to back down from a primary challenge to Vitter in recent weeks as former Rep. John Cooksey withdrew his name from consideration earlier this month. Now only one big-name Republican--Secretary of State Jay Dardenne--is still considering challenging Vitter in the GOP primary.
California: A new Rasmussen poll shows Sen. Barbara Boxer (D) leading two Republicans--Gov. Arnold Schwarzenegger and former Hewlett Packard CEO Carly Fiorina--by comfortable margins. Boxer leads Schwarzenegger 50-34 and she leads Fiorina 47-38. This poll confirms the results of a Field poll released last week which showed Boxer leading these two Republicans by similar margins.
New Hampshire: Rep. Carol Shea-Porter (D) announced that she will not run for New Hampshire's open Senate seat in 2010. Shea-Porter was reportedly taking a serious look at the race and her candidacy was attracting much speculation. But now that she's out of the picture, it looks like Rep. Paul Hodes (D)--who has already announced his candidacy--is the likely Democratic nominee for the seat. No Republican candidates have emerged yet, but it appears as though the GOP's bench is pretty thin.
Louisiana: Sen. David Vitter (R)--who is plagued by his involvement in the 2007 DC Madam prostitution scandal--caught a big break this weekend when Family Research Council President Tony Perkins (R) announced that he would not challenge Vitter in the 2010 GOP primary and that he will be supporting the Senator. Perkins would have have been a formidable opponent with both his strong conservative bona fides and strong institutional support. He is the second Republican to back down from a primary challenge to Vitter in recent weeks as former Rep. John Cooksey withdrew his name from consideration earlier this month. Now only one big-name Republican--Secretary of State Jay Dardenne--is still considering challenging Vitter in the GOP primary.
California: A new Rasmussen poll shows Sen. Barbara Boxer (D) leading two Republicans--Gov. Arnold Schwarzenegger and former Hewlett Packard CEO Carly Fiorina--by comfortable margins. Boxer leads Schwarzenegger 50-34 and she leads Fiorina 47-38. This poll confirms the results of a Field poll released last week which showed Boxer leading these two Republicans by similar margins.
Friday, March 6, 2009
CA: Poll Shows That Boxer is Safe
A new Field Poll out of California shows that Sen. Barbara Boxer (D) is safe for her 2010 reelection bid, no matter who were Republican challenger is.
The poll tested her against Gov. Arnold Schwarzenegger (R) and businesswoman Carly Fiorina (R), as well as a hypothetical Republican primary including Schwarzenegger, Fiorina and Assemblyman Chuck DeVore and one primary match-up with just Fiorina and DeVore. Here are the numbers:
Boxer--54%
Schwarzenegger--30%
Boxer--55%
Fiorina--25%
Schwarzenegger--31%
Fiorina--24%
DeVore--9%
Fiorina--31%
DeVore--19%
Schwarzenegger has not shown any interest in the race and is considered unlikely to run, and Fiorina is undergoing treatment for breast cancer--making her entry in the race very unlikely.
But even if by some miracle one of those two Republicans jumps in the race, this poll confirms that Boxer would cruise to reelection anyway. DeVore--who has already officially announced his candidacy--won't be a threat at all to Boxer if he gets the nomination.
So barring any major gaffes or scandals in the next year and a half, it looks like Boxer will easily win a fourth term in the Senate.
The poll tested her against Gov. Arnold Schwarzenegger (R) and businesswoman Carly Fiorina (R), as well as a hypothetical Republican primary including Schwarzenegger, Fiorina and Assemblyman Chuck DeVore and one primary match-up with just Fiorina and DeVore. Here are the numbers:
Boxer--54%
Schwarzenegger--30%
Boxer--55%
Fiorina--25%
Schwarzenegger--31%
Fiorina--24%
DeVore--9%
Fiorina--31%
DeVore--19%
Schwarzenegger has not shown any interest in the race and is considered unlikely to run, and Fiorina is undergoing treatment for breast cancer--making her entry in the race very unlikely.
But even if by some miracle one of those two Republicans jumps in the race, this poll confirms that Boxer would cruise to reelection anyway. DeVore--who has already officially announced his candidacy--won't be a threat at all to Boxer if he gets the nomination.
So barring any major gaffes or scandals in the next year and a half, it looks like Boxer will easily win a fourth term in the Senate.
Thursday, March 5, 2009
LA: Poll Shows Vitter Could Be in Trouble
Sen. David Vitter (R-LA) could face a tough reelection battle in the Republican primary as well as the general election in 2010, a new Research 2000 poll shows.
The poll included hypothetical primary and general election match-ups with one Republican (Secretary of State Jay Dardenne) and two Democrats (Rep. Charlie Melancon and former Rep. Don Cazayoux). Here are the numbers:
Vitter--43%
Dardenne--32%
Vitter--48%
Melancon--41%
Vitter--48%
Cazayoux--39%
Dardenne--49%
Melancon--40%
Dardenne--50%
Cazayoux--38%
Notice that Vitter is below 50% in all of his match-ups (even in his own party's primary), which is a tell-tale sign of vulnerability for any incumbent. Vitter's favorability ratings are also mediocre, with 49% viewing him favorably and 42% viewing him unfavorably.
Vitter holds a similar single-digit lead over both Democrats tested in the poll, but neither one is likely to run in 2010. Melancon disavowed any interest in running, while Cazayoux has not even been in the conversation for the most part. But given how similar their numbers are, we can assume that their share of the vote is for the generic Democratic candidate--whomever that may be. So if the Democrats can get their act together and nominate a credible candidate, they have a chance at taking Vitter down.
Meanwhile, Dardenne fares well against Vitter in the GOP primary, but still trails him by nine points, showing that Vitter still has a significant following with the conservative wing of the state's Republican Party. After all, Dardenne is seen as moderate compared to the right-wing Vitter.
But one other ultra-conservative Republican name that has been floating around as possible candidate, Family Research Council President Tony Perkins, was not tested in the poll--so we don't really know how much of the conservative vote he would siphon off from Vitter.
Oh yeah, I almost forgot: porn star Stormy Daniels received 1% of the vote in the Republican primary. Finally some good news for you, Dave!
The poll included hypothetical primary and general election match-ups with one Republican (Secretary of State Jay Dardenne) and two Democrats (Rep. Charlie Melancon and former Rep. Don Cazayoux). Here are the numbers:
Vitter--43%
Dardenne--32%
Vitter--48%
Melancon--41%
Vitter--48%
Cazayoux--39%
Dardenne--49%
Melancon--40%
Dardenne--50%
Cazayoux--38%
Notice that Vitter is below 50% in all of his match-ups (even in his own party's primary), which is a tell-tale sign of vulnerability for any incumbent. Vitter's favorability ratings are also mediocre, with 49% viewing him favorably and 42% viewing him unfavorably.
Vitter holds a similar single-digit lead over both Democrats tested in the poll, but neither one is likely to run in 2010. Melancon disavowed any interest in running, while Cazayoux has not even been in the conversation for the most part. But given how similar their numbers are, we can assume that their share of the vote is for the generic Democratic candidate--whomever that may be. So if the Democrats can get their act together and nominate a credible candidate, they have a chance at taking Vitter down.
Meanwhile, Dardenne fares well against Vitter in the GOP primary, but still trails him by nine points, showing that Vitter still has a significant following with the conservative wing of the state's Republican Party. After all, Dardenne is seen as moderate compared to the right-wing Vitter.
But one other ultra-conservative Republican name that has been floating around as possible candidate, Family Research Council President Tony Perkins, was not tested in the poll--so we don't really know how much of the conservative vote he would siphon off from Vitter.
Oh yeah, I almost forgot: porn star Stormy Daniels received 1% of the vote in the Republican primary. Finally some good news for you, Dave!
Tuesday, March 3, 2009
Poll Watch: Pennsylvania and New York
In Pennsylvania, a new Susquehanna poll shows that Sen. Arlen Specter (R-PA) could be in some serious trouble in his 2010 reelection bid--particularly in the Republican primary.
Specter is widely viewed as a moderate Republican, which would seem to fit the bill of Pennsylvania well. But many of the moderate Republican voters that have supported him in previous bids have either moved out of the state or have switched registration to the Democratic Party.
And that's significant because in Pennsylvania the primaries are closed (meaning that only registered members of the party can vote in their own primary) so Democrats and Independents can't vote in the Republican primary.
This poll shows that 53% of all Pennsylvanians--and 66% of Republicans--want someone to replace Specter after 2010, spelling trouble for him in the primary against a (much) more conservative candidate like former Rep. Pat Toomey--who almost defeated Specter in the 2004 Republican primary and just re-declared his interest in next year's race.
If Specter survives the primary, he is in good position to win in the general election, as 49% of Democrats said that they would back Specter. However, if a conservative like Toomey wins the GOP nomination, the Democratic nominee would have a much better shot of consolidating the Democratic race and taking the seat.
So in short, liberal Democrats should be cheering at the prospect of a Toomey candidacy, as long as they get a top-tier candidate of their own.
In New York, a new Marist poll shows a statistical dead heat between incumbent Sen. Kirsten Gillibrand (D-NY) and Rep. Carolyn McCarthy, who has said that she would challenge Gillibrand in the 2010 primary over the issue of gun control.
The poll shows Gillibrand leading McCarthy 36% to 33%, which is in the margin of error. 50% of New Yorkers have no opinion either way of Gillibrand, while 18% say she is doing an excellent/good job and 32% say she is doing a fair/poor job.
Gillibrand has been positioning herself farther to the left on issues like gun control since she joined the Senate, in part to avoid a primary battle with someone like McCarthy.
In a general election match-up, Gillibrand trounces Rep. Peter King (R) by a margin of 49-28--as she has done in three previous polls against him. King would clearly be a weak general election candidate, even against someone as unknown/unpopular as Gillibrand.
It looks like the NRSC's only hope of picking up the seat in the 2010 special election lies with former Gov. George Pataki (R), although his entry in the race is seen as unlikely. In the poll, Gillibrand leads Pataki 45% to 41%.
Specter is widely viewed as a moderate Republican, which would seem to fit the bill of Pennsylvania well. But many of the moderate Republican voters that have supported him in previous bids have either moved out of the state or have switched registration to the Democratic Party.
And that's significant because in Pennsylvania the primaries are closed (meaning that only registered members of the party can vote in their own primary) so Democrats and Independents can't vote in the Republican primary.
This poll shows that 53% of all Pennsylvanians--and 66% of Republicans--want someone to replace Specter after 2010, spelling trouble for him in the primary against a (much) more conservative candidate like former Rep. Pat Toomey--who almost defeated Specter in the 2004 Republican primary and just re-declared his interest in next year's race.
If Specter survives the primary, he is in good position to win in the general election, as 49% of Democrats said that they would back Specter. However, if a conservative like Toomey wins the GOP nomination, the Democratic nominee would have a much better shot of consolidating the Democratic race and taking the seat.
So in short, liberal Democrats should be cheering at the prospect of a Toomey candidacy, as long as they get a top-tier candidate of their own.
-
In New York, a new Marist poll shows a statistical dead heat between incumbent Sen. Kirsten Gillibrand (D-NY) and Rep. Carolyn McCarthy, who has said that she would challenge Gillibrand in the 2010 primary over the issue of gun control.
The poll shows Gillibrand leading McCarthy 36% to 33%, which is in the margin of error. 50% of New Yorkers have no opinion either way of Gillibrand, while 18% say she is doing an excellent/good job and 32% say she is doing a fair/poor job.
Gillibrand has been positioning herself farther to the left on issues like gun control since she joined the Senate, in part to avoid a primary battle with someone like McCarthy.
In a general election match-up, Gillibrand trounces Rep. Peter King (R) by a margin of 49-28--as she has done in three previous polls against him. King would clearly be a weak general election candidate, even against someone as unknown/unpopular as Gillibrand.
It looks like the NRSC's only hope of picking up the seat in the 2010 special election lies with former Gov. George Pataki (R), although his entry in the race is seen as unlikely. In the poll, Gillibrand leads Pataki 45% to 41%.
Thursday, February 26, 2009
UT: Bennett is Safe
A new Research 2000 poll confirms that Sen. Robert Bennett (R-UT) is firmly entrenched is his ruby red state of Utah, and will have an easy time being reelected in 2010.
The poll tested Bennett against Rep. Jim Matheson (D-UT), legendary Jeopardy contestant Ken Jennings (D), Attorney David Leavitt (R), and state Attorney Gen. Mark Shurtleff (R). Here are the numbers:
Bennett--55%
Matheson--32%
Bennett--57%
Jennings--21%
Bennett--44%
Leavitt--23%
Bennett--46%
Shurtleff--20%
Bottom line? Bennett has nothing to worry about.
Oh, and Research 2000: you had to put Ken Jennings in there? Seriously? How about some mayors or former mayors of Salt Lake City next time?
The poll tested Bennett against Rep. Jim Matheson (D-UT), legendary Jeopardy contestant Ken Jennings (D), Attorney David Leavitt (R), and state Attorney Gen. Mark Shurtleff (R). Here are the numbers:
Bennett--55%
Matheson--32%
Bennett--57%
Jennings--21%
Bennett--44%
Leavitt--23%
Bennett--46%
Shurtleff--20%
Bottom line? Bennett has nothing to worry about.
Oh, and Research 2000: you had to put Ken Jennings in there? Seriously? How about some mayors or former mayors of Salt Lake City next time?
TX: Poll Shows GOP Has Early Edge For Hutchinson's Seat
A new PPP poll tested several possible match-ups for Sen. Kay Bailey Hutchinson's (R-TX) Senate seat, which she is expected to resign from for a 2010 gubernatorial bid (thus sparking a special election).
The poll tested two Democrats--Houston Mayor Bill White and former state Comptroller John Sharp--against three Republicans--Lt. Gov. David Dewhurst, state Attorney Gen. Greg Abbott and state Sen. Florence Shapiro. Here are the numbers:
White--37%
Dewhurst--42%
White--36%
Abbott--42%
White--36%
Shapiro--37%
Sharp--36%
Dewhurst--42%
Sharp--36%
Abbott--44%
Sharp--37%
Shapiro--34%
This poll is, overall, good news for Republicans as they would start out with the upper-hand in the special election. But it also shows that this deep south seat is not out of reach for the Democrats.
The Democrats have two relatively strong candidates in White and Sharp, (who both announced that they will run) who have a shot of making this race competitive. They both start out on equal footing--posting similar numbers against the Republicans, having similar approval ratings and relatively low name recognition--leaving room to grow.
The GOP's two top candidates appear to be Dewhurst and Abbott, but neither of them have expressed any interest thus far. But keep in mind that it is Texas, home of George W. Bush, Tom DeLay and the Alamo--you can be sure that the GOP will put a top-tier candidate to face either White or Sharp.
The poll tested two Democrats--Houston Mayor Bill White and former state Comptroller John Sharp--against three Republicans--Lt. Gov. David Dewhurst, state Attorney Gen. Greg Abbott and state Sen. Florence Shapiro. Here are the numbers:
White--37%
Dewhurst--42%
White--36%
Abbott--42%
White--36%
Shapiro--37%
Sharp--36%
Dewhurst--42%
Sharp--36%
Abbott--44%
Sharp--37%
Shapiro--34%
This poll is, overall, good news for Republicans as they would start out with the upper-hand in the special election. But it also shows that this deep south seat is not out of reach for the Democrats.
The Democrats have two relatively strong candidates in White and Sharp, (who both announced that they will run) who have a shot of making this race competitive. They both start out on equal footing--posting similar numbers against the Republicans, having similar approval ratings and relatively low name recognition--leaving room to grow.
The GOP's two top candidates appear to be Dewhurst and Abbott, but neither of them have expressed any interest thus far. But keep in mind that it is Texas, home of George W. Bush, Tom DeLay and the Alamo--you can be sure that the GOP will put a top-tier candidate to face either White or Sharp.
Friday, February 20, 2009
WA: Poll Shows Murray in Good Shape
A new Research 2000 poll shows Sen. Patty Murray (D-WA) crushing two top potential Republican candidates--Rep. Dave Reichert and state Attorney Gen. Rob McKenna--in hypothetical general election match-ups. Here are the numbers:
Murray--53%
Reichert--40%
Murray--55%
McKenna--39%
The Scorecard reports: "Neither Republican is expected to run: Reichert isn’t likely to abandon his House seat for a tough challenge against Murray, while McKenna is eying a gubernatorial race in 2012."
Murray also holds strong favorable ratings, with 55% of respondents viewing her favorable while 40% view her unfavorably.
Murray--53%
Reichert--40%
Murray--55%
McKenna--39%
The Scorecard reports: "Neither Republican is expected to run: Reichert isn’t likely to abandon his House seat for a tough challenge against Murray, while McKenna is eying a gubernatorial race in 2012."
Murray also holds strong favorable ratings, with 55% of respondents viewing her favorable while 40% view her unfavorably.
Thursday, February 19, 2009
Poll: Burr Leads Two Low-Profile Dems in NC
Public Policy Polling has released their third poll of the 2010 North Carolina Senate race. Each poll pits incumbent Sen. Richard Burr (R) against a different Democratic opponent in a hypothetical general election match-up.
The first two polls pitted Burr against the two high-profile Democrats who are thought to be eying the race. The first poll, from December, found Burr trailing state Attorney General Roy Cooper by 5%. The second poll found Burr leading Rep. Heath Shuler by 11%.
This new poll pitted Burr against two low-profile Democrats--investment banker Jim Neal (who lost the 2008 Democratic Senatorial nomination to Kay Hagan) and former state Sen. Cal Cunningham. Burr leads Neal 44% to 30%, while he leads Cunningham 46% to 27%.
Burr's approval ratings should give Republicans hope of holding the seat, as 41% of respondents approve of his performance while 33% disapprove--which is a net 5% improvement from the previous poll.
Nevertheless, it looks like the DSCC can put this seat in play if they recruit a top tier candidate like Cooper, or to a lesser extent, Shuler. If they are stuck with anyone with a lower profile than Cooper and Shuler, this race will likely slip away from them.
The first two polls pitted Burr against the two high-profile Democrats who are thought to be eying the race. The first poll, from December, found Burr trailing state Attorney General Roy Cooper by 5%. The second poll found Burr leading Rep. Heath Shuler by 11%.
This new poll pitted Burr against two low-profile Democrats--investment banker Jim Neal (who lost the 2008 Democratic Senatorial nomination to Kay Hagan) and former state Sen. Cal Cunningham. Burr leads Neal 44% to 30%, while he leads Cunningham 46% to 27%.
Burr's approval ratings should give Republicans hope of holding the seat, as 41% of respondents approve of his performance while 33% disapprove--which is a net 5% improvement from the previous poll.
Nevertheless, it looks like the DSCC can put this seat in play if they recruit a top tier candidate like Cooper, or to a lesser extent, Shuler. If they are stuck with anyone with a lower profile than Cooper and Shuler, this race will likely slip away from them.
Friday, February 13, 2009
Poll: Dorgan Strong Against Hoeven in North Dakota
A new Research 2000 poll finds Sen. Byron Dorgan (D-ND) holding up very well against in a hypothetical 2010 match-up against popular Republican Gov. John Hoeven.
Dorgan crushes Hoeven by 22 points, 57% to 35%, even though both men enjoy similarly strong approval ratings across nearly every demographic.
Hoeven is the only Republican who could even have a remote shot of taking down Dorgan, but he is widely thought to be very unlikely to run. Looking at numbers like these might further convince him to stay out of the race.
Dorgan crushes Hoeven by 22 points, 57% to 35%, even though both men enjoy similarly strong approval ratings across nearly every demographic.
Hoeven is the only Republican who could even have a remote shot of taking down Dorgan, but he is widely thought to be very unlikely to run. Looking at numbers like these might further convince him to stay out of the race.
FL: Fate of Seat Lies With Crist
A new Strategic Vision poll confirms that Gov. Charlie Crist (R-FL) is only candidate in either party who could move this race into the safe column--and that if he wants the seat, it is his for the taking. If he decides to run for another term as governor, this race will sink into complete chaos, as none of the other potential candidates have any kind of statewide name recognition.
Republican Primary with Crist: If Crist runs, he would get 54% of the Republican vote, while his close competitor--Rep. Connie Mack--would get 16%.
Republican Primary without Crist: If Crist stays out, Mack leads the pack with 21%, followed by Rep. Vern Buchanan (11%), former state House Speaker Allen Bense (8%), and another former state House Speaker Marco Rubio (5%). The most important number here is that 55% of Republicans say they are undecided.
Democratic Primary: The four candidates tested--Rep. Ron Klein, Tampa Mayor Pam Iorio, Rep. Kendrick Meek, and state Sen. Dan Gelber--all have very low name recognition, and 66% of respondents say they are undecided. That said, Klein gets 12%, Meek gets 10%, Iorio gets 8%, and Gelber gets 4%.
General Election: The poll also tested 20 general election match-ups, which followed a similiar pattern. Here is a table from Campaign Diaries that makes things clearer. The Republican's number comes first.
Here's what Campaign Diaries gathered from these results:
Republican Primary with Crist: If Crist runs, he would get 54% of the Republican vote, while his close competitor--Rep. Connie Mack--would get 16%.
Republican Primary without Crist: If Crist stays out, Mack leads the pack with 21%, followed by Rep. Vern Buchanan (11%), former state House Speaker Allen Bense (8%), and another former state House Speaker Marco Rubio (5%). The most important number here is that 55% of Republicans say they are undecided.
Democratic Primary: The four candidates tested--Rep. Ron Klein, Tampa Mayor Pam Iorio, Rep. Kendrick Meek, and state Sen. Dan Gelber--all have very low name recognition, and 66% of respondents say they are undecided. That said, Klein gets 12%, Meek gets 10%, Iorio gets 8%, and Gelber gets 4%.
General Election: The poll also tested 20 general election match-ups, which followed a similiar pattern. Here is a table from Campaign Diaries that makes things clearer. The Republican's number comes first.
| Crist | Mack | Buchanan | Bense | Rubio | |
| Klein | 58-24 | 32-27 | 24-28 | 22-27 | 18-29 |
| Iorio | 57-29 | 32-30 | 26-30 | 24-30 | 19-32 |
| Meek | 60-26 | 35-25 | 29-23 | 28-21 | 26-24 |
| Gelber | 58-27 | 33-27 | 23-20 | 27-25 | 17-22 |
Here's what Campaign Diaries gathered from these results:
- Not only does Charlie Crist have huge leads (between 28% and 34%), he is also hovering around 58% - a high number that makes it hard to see how Democrats could defeat him. (That does not mean that Democrats should dread the prospect of his candidacy. For Crist to run for Senate would create a highly competitive gubernatorial election, and that would have huge consequences for redistricting and for next decade’s House races.)
- Connie Mack looks to be a highly competitive competitor, as he beats all four Democrats - though one of the match-ups leaves him within the margin of error.
- Both Pam Iorio and Ron Klein have relatively good numbers, as they edge out three of the five Republicans - including Rep. Vern Buchanan. Pam Iorio’s numbers are particularly encouraging, since she is the only Democrat to hold Mack within the margin of error and to hold Crist under… 30%.
- Marco Rubio, Allen Bense and Dan Gelber: All are state legislators, and in a state as large as Florida it is not realistic to expect them to be known by a wide public - and it’s very hard to make much of their results.
- Kendrick Meek is the only contender to lose every single one of his match-ups, and that is a particularly dreadful result given that two of his opponents are state legislators. Compared to fellow Rep. Ron Klein, for instance, Meek underperforms by 12% against Bense and 13% against Rubio! That he even loses against Marco Rubio should be particularly worrisome to Meek.
Wednesday, February 11, 2009
NH: Poll Shows No Clear Frontrunner
A new PPP poll shows that there is no clear front-runner in the race to replace Sen. Bonnie Newman (R-NH) in 2010. Newman was appointed to replace Judd Gregg (R) after Gregg was tapped as President Obama's Commerce Secretary last week. Newman is not expected to run for the seat in 2010.
The poll pitted Democratic Reps. Paul Hodes and Carol Shea-Porter against two Republicans, former Sen. John Sununu and Rep. Charlie Bass. Here are the numbers:
Hodes--46%
Sununu--44%
Hodes--40%
Bass--37%
Shea-Porter--45%
Sununu--46%
Shea-Porter--42%
Bass--43%
Both Sununu and Bass run well against these two Democrats, but if both of them decide to pass on the race--Sununu has not shown any interest in the race and Bass will probably run for Hodes' House seat--the Republican bench gets very thin and they won't have much of a chance of retaining the seat.
On the Democratic side, Hodes has already announced his candidacy and the Democratic establishment is beginning to rally around him. The poll found that 42% of New Hampshire voters view Hodes favorably while 34% view him unfavorably.
Shea-Porter is still reportedly pondering a run, but might defer because of the support that Hodes is garnering. She has an approval rating of 43-40, and does slightly worse than Hodes against both potential Republican candidates.
The poll pitted Democratic Reps. Paul Hodes and Carol Shea-Porter against two Republicans, former Sen. John Sununu and Rep. Charlie Bass. Here are the numbers:
Hodes--46%
Sununu--44%
Hodes--40%
Bass--37%
Shea-Porter--45%
Sununu--46%
Shea-Porter--42%
Bass--43%
Both Sununu and Bass run well against these two Democrats, but if both of them decide to pass on the race--Sununu has not shown any interest in the race and Bass will probably run for Hodes' House seat--the Republican bench gets very thin and they won't have much of a chance of retaining the seat.
On the Democratic side, Hodes has already announced his candidacy and the Democratic establishment is beginning to rally around him. The poll found that 42% of New Hampshire voters view Hodes favorably while 34% view him unfavorably.
Shea-Porter is still reportedly pondering a run, but might defer because of the support that Hodes is garnering. She has an approval rating of 43-40, and does slightly worse than Hodes against both potential Republican candidates.
Tuesday, February 10, 2009
CT: Is Dodd Vulnerable?
Per The Scorecard:
Could Sen. Chris Dodd (D-Conn.) be a sleeper target for Senate Republicans?
A new Quinnipiac poll shows the five-term Connecticut senator is highly vulnerable heading into his re-election next year. A 51 percent majority of Connecticut voters said they probably won’t be voting for him, with only 42 percent saying they’d likely support him.
Dogging Dodd is allegations that he received a sweetheart mortgage deal from Countrywide Financial. He also lost support after launching a quixotic presidential campaign, where he camped out in Iowa for several months.
A 56 percent majority of Connecticut voters said they were less likely to vote for him because of the mortgage scandal. And by a 54 to 24 percent margin, they didn’t buy Dodd’s explanation – that the low-interest loans were a “courtesy” – and want further details.
“Senator Dodd is vulnerable. His approval has sunk to a new low. More voters disapprove than approve of the job he is doing for the first time in 15 years of polling,” said Quinnipiac Poll Director Douglas Schwartz. “The mortgage controversy has taken a toll on his approval rating.”
On the fundraising front, Dodd only has $671,000 in his campaign account – significantly less than most vulnerable incumbents have on hand. But his connections as chairman of the Senate Banking Committee should allow him to quickly ramp up his fundraising in preparation for a tough race.
Republicans are already trying to recruit a credible challenger against Dodd, with former GOP congressman Rob Simmons heading the list. Simmons narrowly lost a Democratic-leaning House seat in 2006, and served as Connecticut’s Business Advocate after his defeat.
Subscribe to:
Posts (Atom)
Posts
