Pennsylvania: A new Quinnipiac poll shows former Rep. Pat Toomey leading Sen. Arlen Specter 41% to 27% in a Republican primary match-up, with 28% of Republicans undecided. It's no surprise that Specter has already been jolting to the right.
Arkansas: A new poll from Public Policy Polling shows incumbent Sen. Blanche Lincoln (D) leading two potential Republican challengers, former US Attorney Tim Griffin and state Sen. Gilbert Baker. Lincoln leads Griffin 46-38 and leads Baker 48-37. However, these numbers are not all entirely encouraging for Lincoln, as she is under 50% in both contests and she only has a 45-40 approve-disapprove rating.
North Carolina: This is the last poll of this post, I promise. A new Civitas poll has state Attorney General Roy Cooper (D) narrowly leading incumbent Sen. Richard Burr (R), 41% to 38%. But note that 57% of respondents have no opinion of Burr, so take this poll with a grain of salt.
Connecticut: CNBC host Larry Kudlow announced on his show that he will not be running against Sen. Chris Dodd (D) in 2010. Kudlow, who would have run as a Republican, might have been scared off by the fact that a top-tier Republican candidate--former Rep. Rob Simmons--has already jumped in the race. But Kudlow maintains that he never seriously entertained the possibility of running.
California: In what must be a sigh of relief to California Democrats, Gov. Arnold Schwarzenegger (R) announced that he will not run against incumbent Sen. Barbara Boxer (D) in 2010. Said Schwarzenegger: "I am not running for anything, so no one could threaten me, because I'm not running for Senate, I'm not running for Congress, I'm not running for another term as governor." There you have it folks. Looks like the only Republican Boxer has to potentially worry about is former Hewlett-Packard CEO Carly Fiorina, and recent polls have shown that even she wouldn't be a threat.
Showing posts with label CA-Sen. Show all posts
Showing posts with label CA-Sen. Show all posts
Thursday, March 26, 2009
Monday, March 16, 2009
Monday Recap
Connecticut: Former Rep. Rob Simmons (R), emboldened by a recent poll that showed him running evenly with Sen. Chris Dodd (D), announced that he will be challenging the longtime incumbent in 2010. Simmons was undoubtedly the NRSC's top recruit to run against Dodd, and Simmons' entry in the race is a huge get for them. Dodd will now be one of the NRSC's top targets to take down in 2010. In other Connecticut Senate news, Sen. Joe Lieberman (I) announced that he will back Dodd in 2010 even thought Dodd supported Ned Lamont--Lieberman's Democratic rival--in 2006.
New Hampshire: Rep. Carol Shea-Porter (D) announced that she will not run for New Hampshire's open Senate seat in 2010. Shea-Porter was reportedly taking a serious look at the race and her candidacy was attracting much speculation. But now that she's out of the picture, it looks like Rep. Paul Hodes (D)--who has already announced his candidacy--is the likely Democratic nominee for the seat. No Republican candidates have emerged yet, but it appears as though the GOP's bench is pretty thin.
Louisiana: Sen. David Vitter (R)--who is plagued by his involvement in the 2007 DC Madam prostitution scandal--caught a big break this weekend when Family Research Council President Tony Perkins (R) announced that he would not challenge Vitter in the 2010 GOP primary and that he will be supporting the Senator. Perkins would have have been a formidable opponent with both his strong conservative bona fides and strong institutional support. He is the second Republican to back down from a primary challenge to Vitter in recent weeks as former Rep. John Cooksey withdrew his name from consideration earlier this month. Now only one big-name Republican--Secretary of State Jay Dardenne--is still considering challenging Vitter in the GOP primary.
California: A new Rasmussen poll shows Sen. Barbara Boxer (D) leading two Republicans--Gov. Arnold Schwarzenegger and former Hewlett Packard CEO Carly Fiorina--by comfortable margins. Boxer leads Schwarzenegger 50-34 and she leads Fiorina 47-38. This poll confirms the results of a Field poll released last week which showed Boxer leading these two Republicans by similar margins.
New Hampshire: Rep. Carol Shea-Porter (D) announced that she will not run for New Hampshire's open Senate seat in 2010. Shea-Porter was reportedly taking a serious look at the race and her candidacy was attracting much speculation. But now that she's out of the picture, it looks like Rep. Paul Hodes (D)--who has already announced his candidacy--is the likely Democratic nominee for the seat. No Republican candidates have emerged yet, but it appears as though the GOP's bench is pretty thin.
Louisiana: Sen. David Vitter (R)--who is plagued by his involvement in the 2007 DC Madam prostitution scandal--caught a big break this weekend when Family Research Council President Tony Perkins (R) announced that he would not challenge Vitter in the 2010 GOP primary and that he will be supporting the Senator. Perkins would have have been a formidable opponent with both his strong conservative bona fides and strong institutional support. He is the second Republican to back down from a primary challenge to Vitter in recent weeks as former Rep. John Cooksey withdrew his name from consideration earlier this month. Now only one big-name Republican--Secretary of State Jay Dardenne--is still considering challenging Vitter in the GOP primary.
California: A new Rasmussen poll shows Sen. Barbara Boxer (D) leading two Republicans--Gov. Arnold Schwarzenegger and former Hewlett Packard CEO Carly Fiorina--by comfortable margins. Boxer leads Schwarzenegger 50-34 and she leads Fiorina 47-38. This poll confirms the results of a Field poll released last week which showed Boxer leading these two Republicans by similar margins.
Friday, March 6, 2009
CA: Poll Shows That Boxer is Safe
A new Field Poll out of California shows that Sen. Barbara Boxer (D) is safe for her 2010 reelection bid, no matter who were Republican challenger is.
The poll tested her against Gov. Arnold Schwarzenegger (R) and businesswoman Carly Fiorina (R), as well as a hypothetical Republican primary including Schwarzenegger, Fiorina and Assemblyman Chuck DeVore and one primary match-up with just Fiorina and DeVore. Here are the numbers:
Boxer--54%
Schwarzenegger--30%
Boxer--55%
Fiorina--25%
Schwarzenegger--31%
Fiorina--24%
DeVore--9%
Fiorina--31%
DeVore--19%
Schwarzenegger has not shown any interest in the race and is considered unlikely to run, and Fiorina is undergoing treatment for breast cancer--making her entry in the race very unlikely.
But even if by some miracle one of those two Republicans jumps in the race, this poll confirms that Boxer would cruise to reelection anyway. DeVore--who has already officially announced his candidacy--won't be a threat at all to Boxer if he gets the nomination.
So barring any major gaffes or scandals in the next year and a half, it looks like Boxer will easily win a fourth term in the Senate.
The poll tested her against Gov. Arnold Schwarzenegger (R) and businesswoman Carly Fiorina (R), as well as a hypothetical Republican primary including Schwarzenegger, Fiorina and Assemblyman Chuck DeVore and one primary match-up with just Fiorina and DeVore. Here are the numbers:
Boxer--54%
Schwarzenegger--30%
Boxer--55%
Fiorina--25%
Schwarzenegger--31%
Fiorina--24%
DeVore--9%
Fiorina--31%
DeVore--19%
Schwarzenegger has not shown any interest in the race and is considered unlikely to run, and Fiorina is undergoing treatment for breast cancer--making her entry in the race very unlikely.
But even if by some miracle one of those two Republicans jumps in the race, this poll confirms that Boxer would cruise to reelection anyway. DeVore--who has already officially announced his candidacy--won't be a threat at all to Boxer if he gets the nomination.
So barring any major gaffes or scandals in the next year and a half, it looks like Boxer will easily win a fourth term in the Senate.
Wednesday, March 4, 2009
Wednesday Night Updates
Nevada: Former Rep. Jon Porter (R) has reportedly taken a new, high-paying job at a lobbying firm. Porter has often been mentioned as a potential challenger to Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid (D) in 2010, but this new gig may be a sign that Porter wants out of elected office for good (tip: Senate Guru)
Utah: State Attorney General Mark Shurtleff (R) appears to be laying the foundation for a primary challenge to incumbent Sen. Bob Bennett (R) next year. He met with fundraisers today in D.C. to discuss his fundraising capabilities--he has not formally announced his candidacy but will make a final decision soon. All of the buzz surrounding this race is in the GOP primary, as whoever goes on to win the nomination will undoubtedly go on to win the general election--this is Utah after all.
Florida: Bill Clinton will hold a second fundraiser for Rep. Kendrick Meek (D), who is running for the open Senate seat in Florida. He will be squaring off against state Sen. Dan Gelber and North Miami Mayor Kevin Burns in the Democratic primary. We are still waiting to hear from Tampa Mayor Pam Iorio and Rep. Ron Klein on their plans for 2010--I missed this last week, but Klein said that he plans on running for reelection to his current seat at this point, but is leaving his options open for a Senate bid.
California/Wisconsin: Sen. Barbara Boxer (D-CA) and Sen. Russ Feingold's (D-WI) approval ratings took nose dives this month in SurveyUSA's monthly 50-state tracking poll. Boxer looks like she's safe for her 2010 reelection bid unless Gov. Arnold Schwarzenegger (R) or businesswoman Carly Fiorina (R) run against her, but their entries seem unlikely at this point (Schwarzenegger has shown no interest in the race, while Fiorina just underwent surgery for breast cancer). In Wisconsin, Feingold seems more vulnerable, and the Republican name that is floated around the most to challenge Feingold--up-and-comer Rep. Paul Ryan--might just be encouraged enough by these numbers to jump in the race.
Utah: State Attorney General Mark Shurtleff (R) appears to be laying the foundation for a primary challenge to incumbent Sen. Bob Bennett (R) next year. He met with fundraisers today in D.C. to discuss his fundraising capabilities--he has not formally announced his candidacy but will make a final decision soon. All of the buzz surrounding this race is in the GOP primary, as whoever goes on to win the nomination will undoubtedly go on to win the general election--this is Utah after all.
Florida: Bill Clinton will hold a second fundraiser for Rep. Kendrick Meek (D), who is running for the open Senate seat in Florida. He will be squaring off against state Sen. Dan Gelber and North Miami Mayor Kevin Burns in the Democratic primary. We are still waiting to hear from Tampa Mayor Pam Iorio and Rep. Ron Klein on their plans for 2010--I missed this last week, but Klein said that he plans on running for reelection to his current seat at this point, but is leaving his options open for a Senate bid.
California/Wisconsin: Sen. Barbara Boxer (D-CA) and Sen. Russ Feingold's (D-WI) approval ratings took nose dives this month in SurveyUSA's monthly 50-state tracking poll. Boxer looks like she's safe for her 2010 reelection bid unless Gov. Arnold Schwarzenegger (R) or businesswoman Carly Fiorina (R) run against her, but their entries seem unlikely at this point (Schwarzenegger has shown no interest in the race, while Fiorina just underwent surgery for breast cancer). In Wisconsin, Feingold seems more vulnerable, and the Republican name that is floated around the most to challenge Feingold--up-and-comer Rep. Paul Ryan--might just be encouraged enough by these numbers to jump in the race.
Friday, January 9, 2009
Trio of Senate Polls
A new Research 2000 poll shows incumbent Sen. Barbara Boxer (D-CA) leading outgoing Gov. Arnold Schwarzenegger (R) 49% to 40% in a hypothetical match-up. At this point, it seems as though Schwarzenegger could be the only Republican to unseat Boxer, whose approval-disapproval rating has dropped to 48-46.
But Schwarzenegger is already a very well-known and polarizing figure in California, and thus has little room to improve his numbers. His approval ratings are worse than Boxer's (42% approve and 51% disapprove). Also, his moderate nature would certainly draw a strong challenge from the right in the Republican primary.
Meanwhile, this is all just speculation at this point, as Schwarzenegger has not yet made his intentions clear about his candidacy. The only Republican to announce his candidacy is Assemblyman Chuck DeVore, who was not included in the poll. It is widely thought that he wouldn't stand much against Boxer in the general election.
But Schwarzenegger is already a very well-known and polarizing figure in California, and thus has little room to improve his numbers. His approval ratings are worse than Boxer's (42% approve and 51% disapprove). Also, his moderate nature would certainly draw a strong challenge from the right in the Republican primary.
Meanwhile, this is all just speculation at this point, as Schwarzenegger has not yet made his intentions clear about his candidacy. The only Republican to announce his candidacy is Assemblyman Chuck DeVore, who was not included in the poll. It is widely thought that he wouldn't stand much against Boxer in the general election.
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Meanwhile, a new ARG poll pitted incumbent Sen. Judd Gregg (R-NH) against New Hampshire's two Democratic representatives, Paul Hodes and Carol Shea-Porter. Gregg beats Hodes 47% to 40% but crushes Shea-Porter 54% to 35%.
Even though ARG has a spotty track record, the fact that Hodes does far better against Shea-Porter against Gregg and that Hodes keeps Gregg under 50% should be a clear sign to the DSCC that Hodes would be the stronger candidate. Among undeclared (independent) voters, Gregg only leads Hodes 46-42.
The poll also shows that Gregg draws the support of 22% of Democrats against Hodes, which shows room for improvement but also shows that Gregg has strong support among New Hampshire's moderate base.
It's a pity the poll didn't pit Gregg against Gov. John Lynch (D), the least likely to run but probably the strongest challenger if he does so.
Even though ARG has a spotty track record, the fact that Hodes does far better against Shea-Porter against Gregg and that Hodes keeps Gregg under 50% should be a clear sign to the DSCC that Hodes would be the stronger candidate. Among undeclared (independent) voters, Gregg only leads Hodes 46-42.
The poll also shows that Gregg draws the support of 22% of Democrats against Hodes, which shows room for improvement but also shows that Gregg has strong support among New Hampshire's moderate base.
It's a pity the poll didn't pit Gregg against Gov. John Lynch (D), the least likely to run but probably the strongest challenger if he does so.
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And finally, the results of a new Rasmussen poll completely contradict a PPP poll released last Wednesday of the New York Senate race that showed Caroline Kennedy (D) leading Rep. Peter King (R) by only 2%. The Rasmussen survey showed that Kennedy would hold a wide lead over King, by a margin of 51% to 33%.
This Rasmussen poll seems to make more sense than the PPP poll. Kennedy carries one of the most famous and recognizable last names in politics and should be a darling of the Democratic base, and King is a relatively unknown figure in the state in a party that is clearly the minority in the state. Based on those circumstances, the Rasmussen poll which shows Kennedy far ahead, seems to be more accurate. But with such a wide discrepancy it's still hard to tell.
Hillary Clinton's Senate confirmation hearing is set for Tuesday and she is expected to be confirmed easily, so Gov. David Paterson (D-NY) will have to make a decision too about who to appoint to the seat. The other major contender for the seat in state Attorney General Andrew Cuomo, but apparently Paterson is considering 10 to 15 candidates for the job.
This Rasmussen poll seems to make more sense than the PPP poll. Kennedy carries one of the most famous and recognizable last names in politics and should be a darling of the Democratic base, and King is a relatively unknown figure in the state in a party that is clearly the minority in the state. Based on those circumstances, the Rasmussen poll which shows Kennedy far ahead, seems to be more accurate. But with such a wide discrepancy it's still hard to tell.
Hillary Clinton's Senate confirmation hearing is set for Tuesday and she is expected to be confirmed easily, so Gov. David Paterson (D-NY) will have to make a decision too about who to appoint to the seat. The other major contender for the seat in state Attorney General Andrew Cuomo, but apparently Paterson is considering 10 to 15 candidates for the job.
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