Hello everyone. Sorry, it's been a while since my last entry. Since I've been gone, there have been no primaries, but there has been plenty of bickering between Hillary Clinton and Barack Obama. Let me catch you up on the last month or so, in case you missed it.
First, there was the debate about if and how Florida and Michigan were going to vote again. Through deft maneuvering in the courts, it looks like Obama's people were successful. It looks like these two states will not vote again.
This is a big blow to the Clinton campaign, because they have reached a point in the campaign where it is almost a mathematic impossibility to overtake Obama's number of pledged delegates because of the Democratic party's system of allocating delegates proportionally and those states could have helped her close the gap.
She needs to win out up until June 3rd and overtake him in the popular vote to really make a strong case to the superdelegates.
Then came the Rev. Jeremiah Wright ordeal. Basically, this man has been Obama's pastor for the past twenty years at his church in Chicago, and said "God damn America" in a sermon while he was being filmed.
In context, he was speaking about racial inequality in America, and the whole thing has really hurt Obama in a few ways. Firstly, his patriotism and religious credibility have come into question because of this incident.
But more importantly, it has brought up the very delicate issue of race, which of course the predominantly white media eats up. It is still getting incredible amounts of media attention a few weeks after the story originally broke.
But there's really not that much to this. Rev. Wright is not "insane" like everyone on the media is saying. Yes, he is a frustrated, extremely opinionated, old, black minister. But he is saying exactly what he believes, and is fully in his right mind. To say otherwise means that you are missing the point of his surprisingly plausible message.
What people seem to be missing is that his views are not automatically Obama's views. The only part of this that is Obama's fault is the long period of time in which he remained in his church after listening to Wright's controversial sermons.
After about a week of all of this controversy, Obama came out with one of his most memorable and historic speeches yet, on the topic of race. He basically said that he wanted the discussion about race to be open and public, not a hushed topic of conversation.
But once again, the issue of race reared it's ugly head, and was fueled infinitely by the media. If Obama becomes the Democratic nominee, I assure you that this will not be the last time that the topic of race will come up in a big way.
And lastly, Senator Patrick Leahy (D-VT) called for Clinton to step down this week to begin the party healing. Clinton has repeatedly responded to this by vowing to stay in all the way to the convention. But as more and more party leaders are saying that they want all of this settled by July 1st, that is looking less and less likely.
Monday, March 31, 2008
Saturday, March 8, 2008
Obama Takes Wyoming
Barack Obama won the Wyoming caucuses today by a healthy margin. He received 61% of the vote while Hillary Clinton received only 38%. Since Wyoming has such so few Democrats, only 12 delegates from Wyoming will cast their votes at the convention in August.
Both Obama and Bill Clinton stumped there, and had about equal campaign activity in the state. But Obama proved his strength once again in caucus states, of which he has only lost two thus far.
Obama will receive seven of those delegates, while Clinton will receive the remaining five. This race makes almost no difference in the long haul--Obama picked up a net gain of two delegates. But a win is a win.
Obama should win in Mississippi as well, which votes on Tuesday. These two victories for Obama should almost erase the gains Clinton made in the delegate count on March 4th.
In other news, Puerto Rico has changed its June 1st caucus into a primary. This should help Clinton even more, because even though she was favored to win there, caucuses don't bode as well for her in general. This may give her a larger net gain in delegates in Puerto Rico. And in a race where every delegate counts, it could make an impact.
And finally, we say goodbye to our good friend Ron Paul. He dropped out of the race yesterday and is now focusing on holding his congressional seat. He had a small but intensely loyal group of supporters, and he will be sorely missed.
Both Obama and Bill Clinton stumped there, and had about equal campaign activity in the state. But Obama proved his strength once again in caucus states, of which he has only lost two thus far.
Obama will receive seven of those delegates, while Clinton will receive the remaining five. This race makes almost no difference in the long haul--Obama picked up a net gain of two delegates. But a win is a win.
Obama should win in Mississippi as well, which votes on Tuesday. These two victories for Obama should almost erase the gains Clinton made in the delegate count on March 4th.
In other news, Puerto Rico has changed its June 1st caucus into a primary. This should help Clinton even more, because even though she was favored to win there, caucuses don't bode as well for her in general. This may give her a larger net gain in delegates in Puerto Rico. And in a race where every delegate counts, it could make an impact.
And finally, we say goodbye to our good friend Ron Paul. He dropped out of the race yesterday and is now focusing on holding his congressional seat. He had a small but intensely loyal group of supporters, and he will be sorely missed.
Wednesday, March 5, 2008
McCain Reaches 1,191
After last night's blowout victories, John McCain officially became the Republican presidential nominee by reaching the 1,191 delegates needed to clinch it.
Soon after this was confirmed, Mike Huckabee finally ended his campaign for the presidency and offered to support McCain. But don't expect him to do too much before November--he has the 2012 election to prepare for.
Now, this is not huge news. We all knew that McCain clinched the nomination after Mitt Romney dropped out after Super Tuesday. But now, conservatives have no other choice. It's either vote for McCain or stay home.
I am curious to see whether they will embrace him or continue to shun him. And conservative voices like Rush Limbaugh have a large stake in that.
In an attempt to help conservatives transition to McCain, President Bush endorsed him at the White House today. The pundits are trying to figure out whether this will help him or hurt him--and they are pretty divided on the issue.
Well my friends, here's some straight talk for ya. McCain was going to be associated with Bush no matter what. The Democrats were going to paint his campaign as Bush's 3rd term no matter what.
Even though he is vastly unpopular with the general electorate, President Bush still has a large following among conservatives--the same group that McCain is struggling with.
This endorsement can only help him in the long-run. McCain will take advantage of the tight Democratic race to try and unify his deeply divided party, and Bush's endorsement will cause some conservatives to bite the bullet and support McCain, even if it is passive support.
But now that McCain is official nominee, the conversation now turns to who his #2 will be. Here's some advice John McCain: get a young conservative southern governor who knows the economy inside and out. I don't know if such a person exists, but try and include as many of those adjectives in your choice as you can.
I will take a closer look at the contenders for McCain's running-mate over the next few weeks. Besides that speculation, the Republican side is pretty uneventful, if not boring, for the time being.
Soon after this was confirmed, Mike Huckabee finally ended his campaign for the presidency and offered to support McCain. But don't expect him to do too much before November--he has the 2012 election to prepare for.
Now, this is not huge news. We all knew that McCain clinched the nomination after Mitt Romney dropped out after Super Tuesday. But now, conservatives have no other choice. It's either vote for McCain or stay home.
I am curious to see whether they will embrace him or continue to shun him. And conservative voices like Rush Limbaugh have a large stake in that.
In an attempt to help conservatives transition to McCain, President Bush endorsed him at the White House today. The pundits are trying to figure out whether this will help him or hurt him--and they are pretty divided on the issue.
Well my friends, here's some straight talk for ya. McCain was going to be associated with Bush no matter what. The Democrats were going to paint his campaign as Bush's 3rd term no matter what.
Even though he is vastly unpopular with the general electorate, President Bush still has a large following among conservatives--the same group that McCain is struggling with.
This endorsement can only help him in the long-run. McCain will take advantage of the tight Democratic race to try and unify his deeply divided party, and Bush's endorsement will cause some conservatives to bite the bullet and support McCain, even if it is passive support.
But now that McCain is official nominee, the conversation now turns to who his #2 will be. Here's some advice John McCain: get a young conservative southern governor who knows the economy inside and out. I don't know if such a person exists, but try and include as many of those adjectives in your choice as you can.
I will take a closer look at the contenders for McCain's running-mate over the next few weeks. Besides that speculation, the Republican side is pretty uneventful, if not boring, for the time being.
Clinton Gets Much-Needed Wins
Last night, Hillary Clinton's wins in the Ohio, Texas, and Rhode Island primaries proved once again that this primary season is unpredictable. Here's the numbers.
Ohio:
Clinton 54%
Obama 44%
Texas Primary:
Clinton 51%
Obama 47%
Texas Caucus (41%):
Obama 56%
Clinton 44%
Vermont:
Obama 59%
Clinton 39%
Rhode Island:
Clinton 58%
Obama 40%
Clinton pulled off a surprisingly large margin of victory in Ohio, winning in every congressional district except those that included the cities of Cleveland, Columbus, and Cincinnati.
One of the most significant things that I saw last night were the exit polls out of Ohio. She reclaimed her lead among white women, men, and seniors which were her key constituent groups before Barack Obama's winning spree in February.
Since Ohio is very similar demographically to Pennsylvania--the next big prize, which votes on April 22nd--except that Pennsylvania is older, whiter, and more Democratic. That bodes well for Clinton, especially since she has the support of the state's governor, Ed Rendell.
The Texas primary was hotly contested all the way to the end, and it turned out to pretty much be a tie. Clinton edged out Obama slightly, but it was pretty even across the board.
As expected, Obama carried blacks heavily and Latinos went strongly for Clinton. The white vote was evenly split.
If you look at a map of Texas's congressional districts, Clinton looks like she won overwhelmingly. She carried the north, west, and south part of the state heavily. But Obama won in the places where the majority of the people are, around Houston and Dallas. And that's where most of the delegates are.
Because of voting irregularities, the Texas caucus results are coming in very slowly, but it looks like Obama will win. So in reality, Obama might walk away from Texas with more delegates even though Clinton was proclaimed the winner.
Rhode Island and Vermont effectively canceled each other out with their margins. Clinton easily carried Rhode Island and Obama easily took Vermont.
So basically, the delegate count will remain about the same after the Texas caucus delegates are tallied up. But the real story is that Clinton once again needed to deliver, and she did. Obviously her new strategy of flaunting her ability to handle a crisis--as seen in her "red phone" ad--really materialized.
But now that Obama's momentum has come to an abrupt halt, expect him to fight back ferociously against Clinton. Part of the reason he did not win in Ohio and Texas was that she kept him on the defensive all week about Nafta and Rezko.
He should hit back hard and try to get her on the defensive. His camp obviously needs a new strategy going forward. The pressure's still on Clinton and the math is still on Obama's side, but he needs to at least make it close in Pennsylvania to keep her at arm's length in the delegate total. And he's got seven whole weeks to try and figure that out.
Ohio:
Clinton 54%
Obama 44%
Texas Primary:
Clinton 51%
Obama 47%
Texas Caucus (41%):
Obama 56%
Clinton 44%
Vermont:
Obama 59%
Clinton 39%
Rhode Island:
Clinton 58%
Obama 40%
Clinton pulled off a surprisingly large margin of victory in Ohio, winning in every congressional district except those that included the cities of Cleveland, Columbus, and Cincinnati.
One of the most significant things that I saw last night were the exit polls out of Ohio. She reclaimed her lead among white women, men, and seniors which were her key constituent groups before Barack Obama's winning spree in February.
Since Ohio is very similar demographically to Pennsylvania--the next big prize, which votes on April 22nd--except that Pennsylvania is older, whiter, and more Democratic. That bodes well for Clinton, especially since she has the support of the state's governor, Ed Rendell.
The Texas primary was hotly contested all the way to the end, and it turned out to pretty much be a tie. Clinton edged out Obama slightly, but it was pretty even across the board.
As expected, Obama carried blacks heavily and Latinos went strongly for Clinton. The white vote was evenly split.
If you look at a map of Texas's congressional districts, Clinton looks like she won overwhelmingly. She carried the north, west, and south part of the state heavily. But Obama won in the places where the majority of the people are, around Houston and Dallas. And that's where most of the delegates are.
Because of voting irregularities, the Texas caucus results are coming in very slowly, but it looks like Obama will win. So in reality, Obama might walk away from Texas with more delegates even though Clinton was proclaimed the winner.
Rhode Island and Vermont effectively canceled each other out with their margins. Clinton easily carried Rhode Island and Obama easily took Vermont.
So basically, the delegate count will remain about the same after the Texas caucus delegates are tallied up. But the real story is that Clinton once again needed to deliver, and she did. Obviously her new strategy of flaunting her ability to handle a crisis--as seen in her "red phone" ad--really materialized.
But now that Obama's momentum has come to an abrupt halt, expect him to fight back ferociously against Clinton. Part of the reason he did not win in Ohio and Texas was that she kept him on the defensive all week about Nafta and Rezko.
He should hit back hard and try to get her on the defensive. His camp obviously needs a new strategy going forward. The pressure's still on Clinton and the math is still on Obama's side, but he needs to at least make it close in Pennsylvania to keep her at arm's length in the delegate total. And he's got seven whole weeks to try and figure that out.
Monday, March 3, 2008
Texas and Ohio Predictions
Alright. I'm 55 for 70 so far with predictions this primary season. Here's my predictions for tomorrow's primaries in Texas, Ohio, Rhode Island, and Vermont.
Texas:
1.) Obama 52%
2.) Clinton 48%
Ohio:
1.) Clinton 53%
2.) Obama 47%
Vermont:
1.) Obama 63%
2.) Clinton 37%
Rhode Island:
1.) Clinton 54%
2.) Obama 46%
Tomorrow is the real Super Tuesday. Everything is at stake for Hillary Clinton. She's behind by over 100 delegates by most counts, and Barack Obama has all of the momentum.
This is visible in the polls where her lead in the polls in Ohio and Texas--her supposed firewall states--are now within the margin of error. In most Texas polls, she has been overtaken by Obama.
This is also visible in the massive shift of superdelegates towards Obama's side since his Potomac Primary victories. Superdelegates such as Rep. John Lewis have switched from Clinton to Obama, and many more are under immense pressure to do so.
She needs to win big in both states tomorrow to get some momentum and delegates back. And with each day, that's looking less and less likely. So here's the thinking behind my predictions.
The Texas primary should be pretty even. Obama should carry about 85% of the black vote, Clinton should carry about 60% of the Latino vote, and whites should be pretty even leaning slightly to Clinton.
That should all balance out to about a tie. But then comes the caucus. Texas has this bizarre and complicated voting system where you can vote twice if you so wish: in the primary and the caucus. And you can only vote in the caucus if you've already voted in the primary. Yikes.
But given the strength Obama has shown in caucuses--especially in the West--he should win that with a decent margin, giving him the overall majority and should allow him to come away with the most delegates.
Now, on to Ohio. This state is tailor-made for Clinton. Despite Obama's momentum, I think she will carry the state by a small margin but the delegate split will be about even.
Here's why I think she'll win. I think she'll do well with lower income voters, and Ohio has plenty of them.
I also think although most of the major unions have endorsed Obama, the endorsements don't have as much sway with voting as they used to. For example, Obama got almost all of the union endorsements in Nevada--a state with plenty of unions--and he lost.
I also think that Gov. Ted Strickland's endorsement will help with her grassroots operations because he has so many people at his disposal. This will especially help in the rural southeast part of the state that she needs to carry.
Vermont should go heavily for Obama because it is progressive, liberal, and just a perfect state for Obama.
Rhode Island is more like Massachusetts. It will tilt towards Clinton but will not produce a large enough margin to really make a difference in the delegate count.
So here it is again. Texas and Vermont go to Obama; Ohio and Rhode Island go to Clinton. The overall delegate count won't change much, in face it will probably tilt more towards Obama.
Clinton will stay in the race despite not achieving the big wins she needed to get in order to weaken Obama's margin in the delegate count.
Texas:
1.) Obama 52%
2.) Clinton 48%
Ohio:
1.) Clinton 53%
2.) Obama 47%
Vermont:
1.) Obama 63%
2.) Clinton 37%
Rhode Island:
1.) Clinton 54%
2.) Obama 46%
Tomorrow is the real Super Tuesday. Everything is at stake for Hillary Clinton. She's behind by over 100 delegates by most counts, and Barack Obama has all of the momentum.
This is visible in the polls where her lead in the polls in Ohio and Texas--her supposed firewall states--are now within the margin of error. In most Texas polls, she has been overtaken by Obama.
This is also visible in the massive shift of superdelegates towards Obama's side since his Potomac Primary victories. Superdelegates such as Rep. John Lewis have switched from Clinton to Obama, and many more are under immense pressure to do so.
She needs to win big in both states tomorrow to get some momentum and delegates back. And with each day, that's looking less and less likely. So here's the thinking behind my predictions.
The Texas primary should be pretty even. Obama should carry about 85% of the black vote, Clinton should carry about 60% of the Latino vote, and whites should be pretty even leaning slightly to Clinton.
That should all balance out to about a tie. But then comes the caucus. Texas has this bizarre and complicated voting system where you can vote twice if you so wish: in the primary and the caucus. And you can only vote in the caucus if you've already voted in the primary. Yikes.
But given the strength Obama has shown in caucuses--especially in the West--he should win that with a decent margin, giving him the overall majority and should allow him to come away with the most delegates.
Now, on to Ohio. This state is tailor-made for Clinton. Despite Obama's momentum, I think she will carry the state by a small margin but the delegate split will be about even.
Here's why I think she'll win. I think she'll do well with lower income voters, and Ohio has plenty of them.
I also think although most of the major unions have endorsed Obama, the endorsements don't have as much sway with voting as they used to. For example, Obama got almost all of the union endorsements in Nevada--a state with plenty of unions--and he lost.
I also think that Gov. Ted Strickland's endorsement will help with her grassroots operations because he has so many people at his disposal. This will especially help in the rural southeast part of the state that she needs to carry.
Vermont should go heavily for Obama because it is progressive, liberal, and just a perfect state for Obama.
Rhode Island is more like Massachusetts. It will tilt towards Clinton but will not produce a large enough margin to really make a difference in the delegate count.
So here it is again. Texas and Vermont go to Obama; Ohio and Rhode Island go to Clinton. The overall delegate count won't change much, in face it will probably tilt more towards Obama.
Clinton will stay in the race despite not achieving the big wins she needed to get in order to weaken Obama's margin in the delegate count.
Saturday, March 1, 2008
Obama Fights On Two Fronts
Well, it's official. Barack Obama is now the front-runner and Hillary Clinton is the underdog. I never thought I'd see the day.
Hillary has been trying to do everything she can to get back into the spotlight. After losing 11 contests in a row, she and her team are dispirited. She is now tied in the polls with Obama in Texas and Ohio--two states that were going to be her "firewall" states.
At both the Texas and Ohio debates, she was very civil and did not really land any blows that stuck on Obama. But after the Ohio debate, she got angry.
"Shame on you Barack Obama," she said in reference to the mailers Obama sent out that "mischaracterized" her opinions on Nafta and health care.
She has tried to the inevitable strategy, then flaunted her experience, then it was change, then it was crying, then it was the race card, then being overly nice, and now, FINALLY, she's getting aggressive. She's hoping that this new strategy and message will stick so that she will carry the two must-win states of Texas and Ohio on Tuesday.
With the momentum and superdelegates swinging towards Obama, she must be aggressive to stay alive in this campaign.
But now that Obama is the front-runner, he is beginning to feel the pressure of holding that position. Now, recognized as the favorite to be the Democratic nominee, Obama has been consistently attacked by the presumptive Republican nominee, John McCain.
Ever since McCain's Wisconsin victory speech, he has slammed Obama for being naive and inexperienced. He says that Obama is making "an empty promise for change" and that Americans are not buying it. But are they?
In polls of a hypothetical match-up against McCain, Obama consistently beats him. The same is true in many statewide hypothetical polls.
And John McCain is wasting no time in getting ready for the general election. He knows that the Democrats are currently divided and is doing the best he can to take advantage of it.
Obama has also come under fire from Bill Cunningham--a Cincinnati-area conservative talk show host--who spoke to warm up the crowd at a McCain rally. He basically went on a rant about Obama, mentioning his middle name, Hussein, several times.
I'm not going to go into specifics, but it was certainly a nasty rampage. McCain denounced and apologized for Cunningham's remarks. He did not hear the comments in person because he was on a bus at the time they were said. Cunningham then in turn got angry at McCain, saying that he said nothing offensive.
This may be a sign of what is to come in the general election if Obama is the nominee. Expect to hear "Muslim," "Hussein" and "Madrasa"--a type of school he attended in Indonesia--a lot more if he gets the nomination in what is sure to be a nasty election season.
Hillary has been trying to do everything she can to get back into the spotlight. After losing 11 contests in a row, she and her team are dispirited. She is now tied in the polls with Obama in Texas and Ohio--two states that were going to be her "firewall" states.
At both the Texas and Ohio debates, she was very civil and did not really land any blows that stuck on Obama. But after the Ohio debate, she got angry.
"Shame on you Barack Obama," she said in reference to the mailers Obama sent out that "mischaracterized" her opinions on Nafta and health care.
She has tried to the inevitable strategy, then flaunted her experience, then it was change, then it was crying, then it was the race card, then being overly nice, and now, FINALLY, she's getting aggressive. She's hoping that this new strategy and message will stick so that she will carry the two must-win states of Texas and Ohio on Tuesday.
With the momentum and superdelegates swinging towards Obama, she must be aggressive to stay alive in this campaign.
But now that Obama is the front-runner, he is beginning to feel the pressure of holding that position. Now, recognized as the favorite to be the Democratic nominee, Obama has been consistently attacked by the presumptive Republican nominee, John McCain.
Ever since McCain's Wisconsin victory speech, he has slammed Obama for being naive and inexperienced. He says that Obama is making "an empty promise for change" and that Americans are not buying it. But are they?
In polls of a hypothetical match-up against McCain, Obama consistently beats him. The same is true in many statewide hypothetical polls.
And John McCain is wasting no time in getting ready for the general election. He knows that the Democrats are currently divided and is doing the best he can to take advantage of it.
Obama has also come under fire from Bill Cunningham--a Cincinnati-area conservative talk show host--who spoke to warm up the crowd at a McCain rally. He basically went on a rant about Obama, mentioning his middle name, Hussein, several times.
I'm not going to go into specifics, but it was certainly a nasty rampage. McCain denounced and apologized for Cunningham's remarks. He did not hear the comments in person because he was on a bus at the time they were said. Cunningham then in turn got angry at McCain, saying that he said nothing offensive.
This may be a sign of what is to come in the general election if Obama is the nominee. Expect to hear "Muslim," "Hussein" and "Madrasa"--a type of school he attended in Indonesia--a lot more if he gets the nomination in what is sure to be a nasty election season.
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