Democrat Perriello Wins VA-05

At long last, the final unresolved House race in the country has been decided. Democrat Tom Perriello has officially defeated Republican incumbent Rep. Virgil Goode in Virginia's 5th Congressional District.

Perriello led Goode by 745 votes after the initial tally, but since the margin was so close, Goode called for a recount.

In the recount, which ended earlier today, Goode only netted 18 votes, coming 727 short of defeating his opponent.

Now that this race has been resolved, the official final count for the 111th House of Representatives is 257 seats for the Democrats and 178 seats for the Republicans--a 79-seat advantage for the Democrats. They picked up a net 21 seats in the 2008 election.

The only race from 2008 that has yet to be resolved is the Minnesota Senate race. I will delve more into the status of that race later this week.

Carmouche Unlikely to Ask For Recount

Earlier today, the campaign of Democrat Paul Carmouche announced that it is unlikely that they would call for a recount in the close election in Louisiana's 4th district.

Carmouche is simply waiting for the vote to be certified tomorrow, after election officials count the small number of remaining provisional and absentee ballots, which is unlikely to tilt the race in his favor.

His opponent, Republican Jim Fleming, leads Carmouche by 356 votes. So without a recount, it seems highly likely that Fleming will prevail and keep the seat in the Republicans' hands.

Mary Jo Kilroy (D) Wins OH-15

From the AP:

Democrats have taken a seat from House Republicans after the counting of provisional ballots in a race in central Ohio.

Unofficial results Sunday showed that Democrat Mary Jo Kilroy beat Republican Steve Stivers by more than 2,000 votes.

Provisional ballots are issued at polls to people who believe they were wrongly denied the right to vote. Kilroy had held a lead of less than 600 votes before they were counted.

This victory for the Democrats puts the composition of Congress at 256 Democrats to 177 Republicans, a 79-seat majority. The only two races that have yet to be resolved are LA-04 and VA-05, where there will likely be recounts in both districts.

Cao Uspets Jefferson in LA-02; Fleming Declares Victory in LA-04

In Louisiana's 2nd District, little-known Republican Anh "Joseph" Cao defeated nine-term Democratic incumbent Rep. William Jefferson--who is facing a multi-count federal indictment for a corruption case that involves $90,000 in cash being found in his freezer--in a stunning upset.

This district is overwhelmingly black and Democratic, and Jefferson--despite his indictment--was widely expected to win re-election. Instead, Cao will take up his spot, and will be the first Vietnamese-American to go to Congress.

In Louisiana's 4th district, Republican John Fleming leads Democrat Paul Carmouche by 356 votes with 100% of precincts reporting, but provisional ballots are still outstanding. Fleming has claimed victory, but Carmouche has not conceded defeat.

The local newspaper, The Shreveport Times, is calling it for Fleming, but the AP has not yet done so. FiveThirtyEight.com is calling it an "apparent victory" for Fleming.

Since Fleming's margin of victory was less than half of a percentage point, Carmouche can still demand a recount, but making up the difference 356 votes out of about 90,000 might be too high a mountain to climb for Carmouche. But hey, it's Louisiana, so anything can happen.

Ohio Supreme Court Tosses 1,000 Ballots in OH-15

Voters had improperly filled out the outer envelope on the disputed ballots, which had been among about 27,000 left to be counted in the undecided 15th district congressional race between Republican Steve Stivers and Democrat Mary Jo Kilroy.

On Friday, the Ohio Supreme Court threw out about 1,000 provisional ballots from Democratic-leaning Franklin County that had been improperly filled out by voters in the tight congressional race in Ohio's 15th district--between Republican Steve Stivers and Democrat Mary Jo Kilroy.

The all-Republican court turned down Secretary of State Jennifer Brunner's motion to have the 1,000 votes counted by a count of 4-2. Since Brunner is a Democrat, many of her decisions and actions have come under scrutiny from Republicans that she is favoring Kilroy.

The 1,000 ballots in dispute had been improperly signed on the outside of the envelope or signed in the wrong place. There are still 27,000 provisional ballots that Franklin County elections board spokesman Ben Piscitelli said would be tabulated Saturday afternoon and likely certified by Monday.

Right now, Stivers leads Kilroy by 149 votes. Since this race is likely to be decided a double-digit margin of votes, a recount is likely. So we may not know the winner of this one until closer to Christmas. Oy.

LA-02 and LA-04 Elections Are Today

The last two races of the 2008 election will be happening today in Louisiana's 2nd and 4th districts. The Democratic and Republican primary dates were moved back because of Hurricane Ike, so now the general election will be today.

In Louisiana's 2nd district, which encompasses a large chunk of New Orleans and is heavily black and Democratic, the incumbent, Democrat William Jefferson, has been indicted on twelve counts of corruption, money laundering, and international bribery among other things. His opponents are the Republican candidate, lawyer Anh "Joseph" Cao, and the Green Party candidate, community organizer Malik Rahim.

Despite Jefferson's indictment, he is expected to win re-election. But then, House Speaker Nancy Pelosi has a problem on her hands on whether to seat him on committees, say he's innocent until proven guilty and seat him until the trial, or expel him from the caucus? We'll take a look at that after we know the outcome of today's election.

In Louisiana's 4th district, Democrat Paul Carmouche and Republican John Fleming are vying to replace retiring Republican Rep. Jim McCrery. Polls show the race to be very very close, and it is considered a tossup by most political pundits.

President-elect Barack Obama, clearly wanting to expand his party's majority in the House, cut a radio ad for Carmouche. Michelle Obama also recorded a robo-call for him as well.

This race could truly go either way, but it would be icing on the cake if the Democrats picked this seat off from the Republicans. I'll be back later with the results from the two races.

Democrat Concedes in CA-04

From Politico:

Republican Tom McClintock is now officially the congressman-elect from California’s Fourth District after his Democratic rival, Charlie Brown, conceded the race this afternoon.

McClintock declared victory earlier in the week, but Brown’s campaign hinted it would ask for a recount. But with McClintock leading by 1,576 votes, Brown today decided not to contest the race.

"Unfortunately, we've come up less than one half of one percent -- just under 1,800 votes -- short of victory," Brown said in a statement. "So a short time ago, I called Senator Tom McClintock to congratulate him on a hard fought victory, and to wish him well in Congress."

This puts the current tally of the new House of Representatives at:
Democrats: 255
Republicans: 176

Only four House races have yet to be resolved.

In Ohio's 15th district, Republican Steve Stivers leads Democrat Mary Jo Kilroy by 594 votes. But the outcome of this election depends on an imminent decision by the Ohio Supreme Court about whether to count about 27,000 disputed provisional ballots from Democratic-leaning Franklin County, which is also Kilroy's native county. If the court rules in favor of counting the ballots, the Democrats will pick up this seat.

In Virginia's 5th district, Democrat Tom Perriello leads Republican incumbent Virgil Goode by 745 votes after the final tally. But state law requires a margin of that size to give way to an automatic recount, which will take place on December 16. Perriello's lead is expected to hold, but nothing will be official until all of the 316,679 votes are recounted on that day.

There will be elections in Louisiana's 2nd and 4th districts on Saturday, which were postponed by Hurricane Ike. I'll have more on those races later this week.

Democrat Picks Up Miss. House Seat

In Mississippi's 1st district, Democrat Travis Childers (see left) picked up a House seat in a special election Tuesday.

MS-01 is a highly conservative district, and it was the third big win for the Democrats in highly conservative districts in the last three months in special House elections.

The seat opened up because the representative of that district, Republican Roger Wicker, was called upon by Mississippi's governor to fill Sen. Trent Lott's position in the Senate.

Childers, a court official in Prentiss county, defeated Republican Greg Davis, the mayor of Southaven (a suburb of Memphis), by a margin of 54% to 46%. Childers put together a coalition of blacks, who were angered by the racial tone of the primary, and conservative "yellow dog" Democrats, who have not voted for a Democrat since Jimmy Carter.

This is a crushing blow to the NRCC, who poured over $1 million into this race, and a combined $3 million in their past three unsuccessful special election races. If the Republicans keep losing these races in their so-called "strongholds", what will happen to the dozen or so open seats in districts with ratings of R+5 or less?

This loss also means that tying these Democrats to Barack Obama and Nancy Pelosi doesn't really work, which is a bad sign for the Fall. It didn't work with Don Cazayoux of LA-06, and it didn't work with Childers in MS-01. Even the classic Republican strategy of calling people liberal doesn't work anymore. I guess after Bush, liberal isn't such a dirty word anymore.

The NRCC and the Republican party has to gravitate away from Bush and towards the center if they want to have a fighting chance in November, or we could have a massacre on our hands.

Republican Seat in Jeopardy in Miss.

There is a contest Tuesday that is far more important than the (meaningless) West Virginia primary today. It is the second round of voting in Mississippi's first congressional district.

On April 22nd, Travis Childers (D) defeated Greg Davis (R) in the first round of voting in this highly conservative district. In that round, Childers received 49.6% of the vote, while Davis received 46.3% of the vote. But neither candidate got the required 50% so there is a runoff tonight with no minor candidates.

So why is this important? Well, as I mentioned in a previous entry, the Republicans have been losing almost every special election thus far, including several in traditionally conservative strongholds. Another loss in a conservative deep south stronghold could prove to be a huge psychological loss for the party, who is already expected to lose many seats in Congress.

This deeply worries the National Republican Congressional Committee (NRCC), so they have poured millions of dollars into the state. Even so, their spending has been dwarfed by their Democratic counterpart who has been whooping them in fundraising.

This race is so important that the NRCC has had President George W. Bush and presumptive Republican nominee John McCain send out an automated message to voters of that district. Vice President Dick Cheney and Mississippi Gov. Haley Barbour stumped for Davis in recent weeks.

The GOP has once again tried to associate their opponent with Barack Obama, and some think that they are invoking the issue of race, which generally plays in the south. In a way, this is a litmus test to see what will work in November, both in the congressional and presidential elections.

Republicans are desperate for a win after being dominated by the Democrats so far in the special elections. If the Democrats pick up yet another conservative seat, it is a very bad sign for the Republicans.

Dems Dominating Special Elections

With all this talk of divisiveness and "grabbing defeat from the jaws of victory" within the Democratic party, they have at least one thing going their way.

In almost each special congressional election--where the current representative either stepped down or retired--the Democratic candidates have consistently won in heavily Republican districts.

For instance, when former House Speaker Dennis Hastert (R) stepped down in Illinois' 14th district (IL-14)--which has a PVI (Partisan Voting Index) rating of R+5--the Republicans thought that they would get it back easily.

But Democratic candidate Bill Foster--with the endorsement and active support of Barack Obama--upset Jim Oberweis (R) by a margin of 6 percentage points in March. Both party's national committees poured millions into this race, but Foster took Hastert's place in the House.

Also, on April 22nd, Travis Childers (D) defeated Greg Davis (R) in MS-01, a district with a PVI of R+10. Childers received just under 50% while Davis received 46%. Because neither candidate reached 50%, there will be a runoff election on May 13th, but it looks like the Democrats have it wrapped up.

And yesterday, in LA-06, Don Cazayoux (D) got 49% of the vote to Woody Jenkins' (R) 46%. This district has a PVI of R+7, where President Bush received 59% of the vote here in 2004. And up until yesterday, this district had been held by Republicans for 33 years.

The Republicans referred to him as Don Cazayoux as Don "Tax You" and called him a liberal--which is an insult and voting deterrent in the south.

They tried to tie him to Barack Obama, Hillary Clinton and Nancy Pelosi, and tried everything in their playbook--one that will be similar to the one the Republicans will be using on Obama or Clinton in November--but to no avail.

Both the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee (DCCC) and the National Republican Congressional Committee (NRCC) advertised heavily here, but the end result was the same: a Democrat won in a heavily Republican district.

See a pattern?

Although the presidential race is most likely going to be very close, the Democrats are expected to make major gains in the Congressional election. There are many seats that the Republicans are in danger of losing, but only a few where the Democratic incumbent is in danger.

On top of that, the DCCC has outraised the NRCC $88 million to $65 million so far in 2008. They have raised and spent more money that the Republicans so far, and it will be the same in November.

This shows a general trend of more enthusiasm, energy, and fundraising cash on the Democratic side, which will make a major impact on the congressional and presidential races this fall.