Connecticut: Former Rep. Rob Simmons (R), emboldened by a recent poll that showed him running evenly with Sen. Chris Dodd (D), announced that he will be challenging the longtime incumbent in 2010. Simmons was undoubtedly the NRSC's top recruit to run against Dodd, and Simmons' entry in the race is a huge get for them. Dodd will now be one of the NRSC's top targets to take down in 2010. In other Connecticut Senate news, Sen. Joe Lieberman (I) announced that he will back Dodd in 2010 even thought Dodd supported Ned Lamont--Lieberman's Democratic rival--in 2006.
New Hampshire: Rep. Carol Shea-Porter (D) announced that she will not run for New Hampshire's open Senate seat in 2010. Shea-Porter was reportedly taking a serious look at the race and her candidacy was attracting much speculation. But now that she's out of the picture, it looks like Rep. Paul Hodes (D)--who has already announced his candidacy--is the likely Democratic nominee for the seat. No Republican candidates have emerged yet, but it appears as though the GOP's bench is pretty thin.
Louisiana: Sen. David Vitter (R)--who is plagued by his involvement in the 2007 DC Madam prostitution scandal--caught a big break this weekend when Family Research Council President Tony Perkins (R) announced that he would not challenge Vitter in the 2010 GOP primary and that he will be supporting the Senator. Perkins would have have been a formidable opponent with both his strong conservative bona fides and strong institutional support. He is the second Republican to back down from a primary challenge to Vitter in recent weeks as former Rep. John Cooksey withdrew his name from consideration earlier this month. Now only one big-name Republican--Secretary of State Jay Dardenne--is still considering challenging Vitter in the GOP primary.
California: A new Rasmussen poll shows Sen. Barbara Boxer (D) leading two Republicans--Gov. Arnold Schwarzenegger and former Hewlett Packard CEO Carly Fiorina--by comfortable margins. Boxer leads Schwarzenegger 50-34 and she leads Fiorina 47-38. This poll confirms the results of a Field poll released last week which showed Boxer leading these two Republicans by similar margins.
Showing posts with label LA-Sen. Show all posts
Showing posts with label LA-Sen. Show all posts
Monday, March 16, 2009
Thursday, March 5, 2009
LA: Poll Shows Vitter Could Be in Trouble
Sen. David Vitter (R-LA) could face a tough reelection battle in the Republican primary as well as the general election in 2010, a new Research 2000 poll shows.
The poll included hypothetical primary and general election match-ups with one Republican (Secretary of State Jay Dardenne) and two Democrats (Rep. Charlie Melancon and former Rep. Don Cazayoux). Here are the numbers:
Vitter--43%
Dardenne--32%
Vitter--48%
Melancon--41%
Vitter--48%
Cazayoux--39%
Dardenne--49%
Melancon--40%
Dardenne--50%
Cazayoux--38%
Notice that Vitter is below 50% in all of his match-ups (even in his own party's primary), which is a tell-tale sign of vulnerability for any incumbent. Vitter's favorability ratings are also mediocre, with 49% viewing him favorably and 42% viewing him unfavorably.
Vitter holds a similar single-digit lead over both Democrats tested in the poll, but neither one is likely to run in 2010. Melancon disavowed any interest in running, while Cazayoux has not even been in the conversation for the most part. But given how similar their numbers are, we can assume that their share of the vote is for the generic Democratic candidate--whomever that may be. So if the Democrats can get their act together and nominate a credible candidate, they have a chance at taking Vitter down.
Meanwhile, Dardenne fares well against Vitter in the GOP primary, but still trails him by nine points, showing that Vitter still has a significant following with the conservative wing of the state's Republican Party. After all, Dardenne is seen as moderate compared to the right-wing Vitter.
But one other ultra-conservative Republican name that has been floating around as possible candidate, Family Research Council President Tony Perkins, was not tested in the poll--so we don't really know how much of the conservative vote he would siphon off from Vitter.
Oh yeah, I almost forgot: porn star Stormy Daniels received 1% of the vote in the Republican primary. Finally some good news for you, Dave!
The poll included hypothetical primary and general election match-ups with one Republican (Secretary of State Jay Dardenne) and two Democrats (Rep. Charlie Melancon and former Rep. Don Cazayoux). Here are the numbers:
Vitter--43%
Dardenne--32%
Vitter--48%
Melancon--41%
Vitter--48%
Cazayoux--39%
Dardenne--49%
Melancon--40%
Dardenne--50%
Cazayoux--38%
Notice that Vitter is below 50% in all of his match-ups (even in his own party's primary), which is a tell-tale sign of vulnerability for any incumbent. Vitter's favorability ratings are also mediocre, with 49% viewing him favorably and 42% viewing him unfavorably.
Vitter holds a similar single-digit lead over both Democrats tested in the poll, but neither one is likely to run in 2010. Melancon disavowed any interest in running, while Cazayoux has not even been in the conversation for the most part. But given how similar their numbers are, we can assume that their share of the vote is for the generic Democratic candidate--whomever that may be. So if the Democrats can get their act together and nominate a credible candidate, they have a chance at taking Vitter down.
Meanwhile, Dardenne fares well against Vitter in the GOP primary, but still trails him by nine points, showing that Vitter still has a significant following with the conservative wing of the state's Republican Party. After all, Dardenne is seen as moderate compared to the right-wing Vitter.
But one other ultra-conservative Republican name that has been floating around as possible candidate, Family Research Council President Tony Perkins, was not tested in the poll--so we don't really know how much of the conservative vote he would siphon off from Vitter.
Oh yeah, I almost forgot: porn star Stormy Daniels received 1% of the vote in the Republican primary. Finally some good news for you, Dave!
Wednesday, March 4, 2009
Recruitment Updates: Pennsylvania and Louisiana
In Pennsylvania, Republican businessman Glen Meakem announced that he will not run against incumbent Sen. Arlen Specter (R-PA) in 2010.
In his statement, Meakem made it clear that he does not agree with or support Specter, and that he is "confident the people of Pennsylvania will replace him in 2010." It looks like Meakem is deferring to former Rep. Pat Toomey (R-PA), who has shown renewed interest in challenging Specter in the GOP primary. Meakem is widely seen as the next strongest Republican challenger after Toomey.
In other news, Specter got his first official primary challenger yesterday in the form of Larry Murphy (R). Murphy challenged Specter in 1998, and received a solid 18% of the vote--not a bad starting block. Murphy will almost undoubtedly be overshadowed by a more high-profile Republican challenger like Toomey, but he might be able to siphon off enough conservative votes from Toomey to let Specter slide by with a win.
Over in Louisiana, Rep. Charlie Melancon--the only Democratic member of Louisiana's House delegation--says that he probably won't run for Senate next year against Sen. David Vitter (R-LA), who was involved in the 2007 D.C. Madam prostitution scandal.
“Never say never,” Melancon said, “but I’m not contemplating a run at this time.” Melancon was thought to be the DSCC's top choice to challenge Vitter.
The Democrats keep saying that they're going to bring the fight hard to Vitter because of his scandalous past, but they have yet to unite around one candidate, let alone a strong one.
Lt. Gov. Mitch Landrieu's name is often brought up, but it is unlikely that Louisianans will send two Landrieus to represent them in the Senate (his sister Mary is the state's other Senator), and he has thus far shown no interest in running.
The other two oft-mentioned Democrats are businessmen Jim Bernhard and former Rep. Chris John--who ran against Vitter in 2004. But Bernhard is untested politically and John would not be as formidable of a candidate as he once was and has been out of the world of politics for six years--not to mention he has shown no interest in a rematch.
I've always been of the opinion that despite Vitter's past, he is a relatively safe incumbent--as long as he gets past the GOP primary. Louisiana is one of the few states that has been turning redder while the rest of the country turns bluer, and the Democrats have a weak bench.
This race is staying in the "Likely GOP" category barring any further developments. After all, this is Louisiana we're talking about.
In his statement, Meakem made it clear that he does not agree with or support Specter, and that he is "confident the people of Pennsylvania will replace him in 2010." It looks like Meakem is deferring to former Rep. Pat Toomey (R-PA), who has shown renewed interest in challenging Specter in the GOP primary. Meakem is widely seen as the next strongest Republican challenger after Toomey.
In other news, Specter got his first official primary challenger yesterday in the form of Larry Murphy (R). Murphy challenged Specter in 1998, and received a solid 18% of the vote--not a bad starting block. Murphy will almost undoubtedly be overshadowed by a more high-profile Republican challenger like Toomey, but he might be able to siphon off enough conservative votes from Toomey to let Specter slide by with a win.
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Over in Louisiana, Rep. Charlie Melancon--the only Democratic member of Louisiana's House delegation--says that he probably won't run for Senate next year against Sen. David Vitter (R-LA), who was involved in the 2007 D.C. Madam prostitution scandal.
“Never say never,” Melancon said, “but I’m not contemplating a run at this time.” Melancon was thought to be the DSCC's top choice to challenge Vitter.
The Democrats keep saying that they're going to bring the fight hard to Vitter because of his scandalous past, but they have yet to unite around one candidate, let alone a strong one.
Lt. Gov. Mitch Landrieu's name is often brought up, but it is unlikely that Louisianans will send two Landrieus to represent them in the Senate (his sister Mary is the state's other Senator), and he has thus far shown no interest in running.
The other two oft-mentioned Democrats are businessmen Jim Bernhard and former Rep. Chris John--who ran against Vitter in 2004. But Bernhard is untested politically and John would not be as formidable of a candidate as he once was and has been out of the world of politics for six years--not to mention he has shown no interest in a rematch.
I've always been of the opinion that despite Vitter's past, he is a relatively safe incumbent--as long as he gets past the GOP primary. Louisiana is one of the few states that has been turning redder while the rest of the country turns bluer, and the Democrats have a weak bench.
This race is staying in the "Likely GOP" category barring any further developments. After all, this is Louisiana we're talking about.
Monday, March 2, 2009
LA: Cooksey Rules Out Run
A few days after he said he was considering running against Sen. David Vitter (R-LA) in the 2010 Republican primary, former Rep. John Cooksey (R) announced that he will not be challenging Vitter.
“While I do not always agree with David Vitter's position on social issues, I believe David Vitter does a good job representing the people of Louisiana on fiscal matters,” Cooksey said. “If David Vitter emerges as the Republican nominee in the 2010 Senate race in Louisiana, I will vote for him."
But Vitter's not off the hook for a primary challenger yet--Family Research Council President Tony Perkins told Politico that he was considering running against him. If Perkins did run, he would likely emphasize the issue of family values and social conservatism--and he would not let the public forget about Vitter's involvement in the 2007 D.C. Madam prostitution scandal.
“While I do not always agree with David Vitter's position on social issues, I believe David Vitter does a good job representing the people of Louisiana on fiscal matters,” Cooksey said. “If David Vitter emerges as the Republican nominee in the 2010 Senate race in Louisiana, I will vote for him."
But Vitter's not off the hook for a primary challenger yet--Family Research Council President Tony Perkins told Politico that he was considering running against him. If Perkins did run, he would likely emphasize the issue of family values and social conservatism--and he would not let the public forget about Vitter's involvement in the 2007 D.C. Madam prostitution scandal.
Friday, February 27, 2009
Friday Updates
Illinois: The Chicago Sun-Times reports that Commerce Secretary William Daley (D)--who is also the brother of Chicago Mayor Richard Daley--is considering running for Sen. Roland Burris' (D-IL) Senate seat--regardless of whether the embattled Senator runs again for the seat. If Daley jumps in the race, he will likely face off against state Treasurer Alexi Giannoulias, who has not yet announced his candidacy but is rumored to be Senate Minority Whip Dick Durbin's top pick for the post.
Louisiana: Bayou Buzz reports that former Rep. John Cooksey is considering challenging Sen. David Vitter (R-LA)--who is plagued by his involvement in the DC Madam scandal last year. We not have three Republicans--Secretary of State Jay Dardenne, Family Research Council President Tony Perking and Cooksey--eying a primary challenge to Vitter.
Kentucky: Angry over the way Republican leaders have been treating him these past few months, Sen. Jim Bunning (R-KY) is reportedly considering resigning from the Senate to let Kentucky's Democratic governor, Steve Beshear, appoint a replacement--thus giving the Democrats their 60th seat in the Senate (assuming Al Franken prevails in Minnesota). Now, I think that this is an empty threat from Bunning that came out of frustration, in order to get treated better by the Senate Republican leadership. But if he does go through with it--and Bunning is crazy enough to do it--we can expect Gov. Beshear to appoint his Democratic lieutenant governor, Dan Mongiardo, to the seat. Mongiardo has already announced that he will run for the seat in 2010, so it seems like a natural pick.
UPDATE: Bunning denied the report in a statement. "It's not true. I intend to fulfill my obligation to the people of Kentucky. If you are going to write something like this, you better make your sources known, because they are lying," Bunning said. But one of his staffers didn't deny that he said it.
Oh, Jim, between calling your minority leader "deaf," predicting Ruth Bader Ginsburg's death, and now this, I think it's safe to say that it's going to be a hoot watching you these next two years.
Louisiana: Bayou Buzz reports that former Rep. John Cooksey is considering challenging Sen. David Vitter (R-LA)--who is plagued by his involvement in the DC Madam scandal last year. We not have three Republicans--Secretary of State Jay Dardenne, Family Research Council President Tony Perking and Cooksey--eying a primary challenge to Vitter.
Kentucky: Angry over the way Republican leaders have been treating him these past few months, Sen. Jim Bunning (R-KY) is reportedly considering resigning from the Senate to let Kentucky's Democratic governor, Steve Beshear, appoint a replacement--thus giving the Democrats their 60th seat in the Senate (assuming Al Franken prevails in Minnesota). Now, I think that this is an empty threat from Bunning that came out of frustration, in order to get treated better by the Senate Republican leadership. But if he does go through with it--and Bunning is crazy enough to do it--we can expect Gov. Beshear to appoint his Democratic lieutenant governor, Dan Mongiardo, to the seat. Mongiardo has already announced that he will run for the seat in 2010, so it seems like a natural pick.
UPDATE: Bunning denied the report in a statement. "It's not true. I intend to fulfill my obligation to the people of Kentucky. If you are going to write something like this, you better make your sources known, because they are lying," Bunning said. But one of his staffers didn't deny that he said it.
Oh, Jim, between calling your minority leader "deaf," predicting Ruth Bader Ginsburg's death, and now this, I think it's safe to say that it's going to be a hoot watching you these next two years.
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