TX: Poll Shows GOP Has Early Edge For Hutchinson's Seat

A new PPP poll tested several possible match-ups for Sen. Kay Bailey Hutchinson's (R-TX) Senate seat, which she is expected to resign from for a 2010 gubernatorial bid (thus sparking a special election).

The poll tested two Democrats--Houston Mayor Bill White and former state Comptroller John Sharp--against three Republicans--Lt. Gov. David Dewhurst, state Attorney Gen. Greg Abbott and state Sen. Florence Shapiro. Here are the numbers:

White--37%
Dewhurst--42%

White--36%
Abbott--42%

White--36%
Shapiro--37%

Sharp--36%
Dewhurst--42%

Sharp--36%
Abbott--44%

Sharp--37%
Shapiro--34%

This poll is, overall, good news for Republicans as they would start out with the upper-hand in the special election. But it also shows that this deep south seat is not out of reach for the Democrats.

The Democrats have two relatively strong candidates in White and Sharp, (who both announced that they will run) who have a shot of making this race competitive. They both start out on equal footing--posting similar numbers against the Republicans, having similar approval ratings and relatively low name recognition--leaving room to grow.

The GOP's two top candidates appear to be Dewhurst and Abbott, but neither of them have expressed any interest thus far. But keep in mind that it is Texas, home of George W. Bush, Tom DeLay and the Alamo--you can be sure that the GOP will put a top-tier candidate to face either White or Sharp.

Houston Mayor Will Run for Vacant TX Senate Seat

Sen. Kay Bailey Hutchinson (R-TX) is not up for re-election in 2010, but is already preparing to make a run for governor in that same year. This means that her seat will be vacant in 2010 and there will be a special election, giving the Democrats a good shot of picking up the seat then.

Hutchinson has said that she will step down from the Senate in late 2009, prompting Republican Gov. Rick Perry--the man she'll be facing off against in what is sure to be a bitterly fought primary--to appoint an interim successor, who may or may not run to keep the seat in 2010.

On the Republican side, there is expected to be a bloody fight for the nomination as former GOP Secretary of State Roger Williams and Republican state Sen. Florence Shapiro of Dallas have announced that they will run--and I'm sure that most if not all of Texas's 20 Republican representatives are strongly considering running.

Both national and state-level Democrats have convinced Houston Mayor Bill White to run for the open seat. White has proved himself a capable candidate in a state that is unfriendly and unforgiving to Democrats, winning re-election in 2007 with 86% of the vote.

The Democrats will still probably be the underdogs going into the race, but they will surely put up a fight. And having such a popular figure run for office, as well as the prospect of a bitter and bruising Republican primary might give them hope of flipping a Senate seat in a very red state.