Check out my rundown of the 2010 Senate races here

Saturday, January 5, 2008

Iowa Fallout

Well, Iowa is finally over and done with. But that doesn't mean it's legacy is over.

There is much speculation on how much momentum Barack Obama and Mike Huckabee would carry out of victories in Iowa.

What does this mean for the two victors and the many losers coming into New Hampshire on Tuesday?

Iowa proved that young people and independents are major players in this process. Now more than ever. They came out to support Obama which helped him squash the competition in Iowa.

The equivalent on the GOP side was evangelicals, who made Huckabee the clear winner.

Going into New Hampshire, Obama's win seems more significant than Huckabee's. There is likely to be many young and independent voters on the Democratic side, who will most likely support Obama.

In response, Hillary Clinton and John Edwards, Obama's biggest competition, are trying to reach out to young voters in New Hampshire to try and make up the difference there.

With only five days in between the Iowa caucuses and the New Hampshire primaries, Clinton and Edwards are scrambling to claw their way back to the top and stop Obama's momentum. Clinton is expected to get very negative in the next three days to stop the bleeding.

Overall, Obama has better ground support in New Hampshire. He has met with more people and has better grassroots support and get-out-the-vote organization than Clinton.

His schedule up until Tuesday is filled with more public events than hers, which is surprising. I thought she would have been trying to meet with as many voters as possible like her husband did in 1992. This decision could prove fatal for her campaign if she loses again to Obama.

Meanwhile, on the Republican side, the man to beat is John McCain. He greatly benefited from Mitt Romney's loss, who is expected to drop in the polls after the devastating loss.

Romney has once again changed his message, and is focusing on change itself after Mike Huckabee won on that platform in Iowa. He attacked John McCain today saying that he is a Washington insider and would not change a thing.

Romney has changed his message over and over again, seemingly just to appeal to voters. But it has not worked. The people of Iowa saw right through him, and so will the people of New Hampshire.

There is also a battle for third place between Mike Huckabee, Ron Paul, and Rudy Giuliani. Huckabee expects his Iowa victory to land him to that position, but Ron Paul's massive fundraising and libertarian base in New Hampshire might challenge that.

Giuliani hasn't devoted all of his efforts to New Hampshire, but more so than in Iowa. He is hoping that a third place finish here could give him the media recognition he needs for running the national campaign that he intends to run.

Both Obama and McCain come into New Hampshire as front-runners, with more direct contact with voters. Clinton and Romney hope to defeat their respective opponents based on their credentials--despite their poor showing in Iowa.

1 comment:

Keith "Nurse Keith" Carlson, RN, BSN, NC-BC said...

Obama certainly answers younger voters' requirements for a younger, hipper, anti-war, less "establishment" candidate. Hillary obviously turns the under-30 set off big time.

I personally think Huckabee is somewhat of a flash in the pan and will fall back into the pack sooner or later....