State of the Race: 4 Days to Go

Many members of the media were talking today about how John McCain is "closing." Really? Because today's polls don't reflect that at all. In fact, Barack Obama increased his lead in the national tracking polls as well as in many state polls today. I guess the major networks want to say the race is getting closer so more people will watch.

We have 31 new state polls today. Here's the battleground state averages with four days to go before election day:

Missouri (11)--Obama +0.2
Indiana (11)--McCain +1.4
North Dakota (3)--McCain +1.4
North Carolina (15)--Obama +1.9
Florida (27)--Obama +2.9
Georgia (15)--McCain +3.8
Montana (3)--McCain +4.0
Ohio (20)--Obama +5.1
Arizona (10)--McCain +5.2
Nevada (5)--Obama +5.8
Colorado (9)--Obama +6.6
Virginia (13)--Obama +6.6
West Virginia (5)--McCain +8.5
New Mexico (5)--Obama +8.9
Pennsylvania (21)--Obama +9.6
New Hampshire (4)--Obama +11.0
Wisconsin (10)--Obama +11.3
Iowa (7)--Obama +11.7
Minnesota (10)--Obama +12.4

TODAY'S ELECTORAL VOTE PROJECTION:
Obama: 364
McCain: 174

John McCain really can't afford to have a day where he does not make up any ground in the battleground states, let alone lose ground in them.

Since yesterday's update, McCain has gone down by a half of a point in New Mexico, largely due to the latest PPP poll that has him down by 17 there. Now, PPP is a left-leaning pollster, so I would translate that margin into something more like 13 or 14, which is still very strong. McCain has gone down almost two points in North Dakota as a result of a Research 2000 poll that puts him up by only one point in the state. Obama has started airing advertisements there again.

McCain continues to lose ground in Arizona, and now states like Colorado, Virginia and Nevada are more competitive than his home state. The Obama campaign has started advertising in Arizona yesterday as a result of these hopeful new numbers. But I must say, that is a bit obnoxious. I mean, there's no way that Arizona is going to decide the election--they just want to add insult to injury. But, I guess they have more money than they know what to do with.

We had six polls from New Hampshire out today, where Obama is leading from anywhere between 7-15 points. I think this slew of evidence shows that he is right on track to win there.

On top of that, the majority of Colorado and New Mexico have already cast their ballots through early voting, and early totals show that far more Democrats have showed up than Republicans so far. That does not bode well for McCain.

The key states of Missouri, North Carolina, Florida, Ohio, Nevada, Colorado, and Virginia remain unchanged since yesterday. McCain needs to be closing in these states, but instead Obama still has small or even some large leads in some of these states.

The only states that are moving in McCain's direction are Indiana, Montana and Pennsylvania. Two recent polls from Montana show that McCain is gaining slightly there, and his lead is just outside the margin of error. The same goes for Indiana, which looks to be more and more promising for McCain.

The only evidence where I see McCain "closing" is in Pennsylvania. But his gains are nothing to write home about. The Morning Call tracking poll has him down by (only!) 10 points, down a point from yesterday, while a Strategic Vision poll has him down by 5 points. But keep in mind that Strategic Vision has had a Republican lean and some very erratic polling in Pennsylvania all year. This result is probably what his campaign's internal polls looked like when they decided to go all-in there last week.

So basically, Pennsylvania is McCain's last chance. Even if he does pull off a miracle and win the Keystone state, it does not automatically mean victory for him. Obama has something of a firewall in Colorado, Virginia, and Nevada--totaling 27 electoral votes to Pennsylvania's 21. Even if McCain wins Pennsylvania, Ohio, Florida, Missouri and North Carolina (all states he's currently behind in), all Obama needs is those three firewall states and he has 270 electoral votes.

I'm sure the electoral map and all of the different scenarios for an Obama victory is giving McCain campaign manager Steve Schmidt nightmares.

Senate Update: 4 Days to Go

With four days before election day, it looks as though Barack Obama will win the presidency. But not we look to see what kind of Democratic majorities he'll be working with in Congress. The House of Representatives is harder to predict, but it looks as though Democrats are going to gain 20-40 seats.

The Senate, on the other hand, has become easier to predict with a flurry of new polling from the eight competitive races (where all of the seats are currently held by Republicans). I have separated these races into three categories: likely Democrat, toss-up, and likely Republican--along with the averages for each race. Currently, my averages project that the Democrats will have 56 seats, the Republicans will have 42 seats, and the Independents will have 2.

Likely Democrat:
In these three races, if nothing changes drastically in the next few days, it looks as though the Democrats will win these seats.

New Hampshire--Shaheen +7.9
Recent polls show that Jeanne Shaheen has been pulling away from incumbent John Sununu, and is currently ahead by somewhere between 5 and 13 points. But Shaheen's totals have not matched Barack Obama's totals in the state, meaning that there are some Obama-Sununu voters. I still pit Shaheen as a heavy favorite to pick up this seat, but given this state's independent streak, a good number of undecideds may break for Sununu in the final few days making the race closer than expected.

Alaska--Begich +7.6
After 40-year incumbent Sen. Ted Stevens was convicted on seven charges of corruption and is now officially a felon, this race was basically over. The two polls that have come put since then have had Democratic challenger Mark Begich up by 8 points and 22 points respectively. It will take a day or two before my average for this race to reflect those numbers, but it is clear that Begich will be the new senator from Alaska.

Oregon--Merkley +5.2
The race between incumbent Sen. Gordon Smith and Jeff Merkley was once considered to be a toss-up, but now it looks as though the race is breaking Merkley's way. He's led in the polls for over a month now, and a new poll from Public Policy Polling puts him up by 8 points, his largest lead to date. Smith has not had much help from the McCain campaign because they have not seemed to pick up any momentum in the state, and Smith basically has to fend for himself. Oregon only allows mail-in voting and early reports show that turnout is way down in typically Republican areas. Things are looking bleak for Smith. Expect this seat to flip.

Toss-Up:
These races really could go either way, but it appears that the Democrats have a slight advantage in North Carolina while the Republicans have a slight advantage in Georgia. Minnesota is still a dead heat.

North Carolina--Hagan +2.2
Democratic challenger continues to have a small yet significant lead in this race against one-term incumbent Sen. Elizabeth Dole. But in a state that is known for last minute mud-slinging nasty attack advertising, it comes as no surprise that the Dole campaign has released a controversial new ad, which implies that Hagan is an atheist. The ad points out Hagan's ties to a local atheist group that supposedly donated money to her campaign, and at the end of the ad an audio clip of a voice comes on and says "There is no God." Viewers are led to believe that the voice is Hagan's, though the Dole campaign has admitted that it is not her in the clip. Here is the infamous ad. If it is successful, Dole may keep her seat--but it also may backfire and cause her to lose by an even larger margin. Over the next few days, I will be looking to see what kind of an effect this has on the race.

Minnesota--Coleman* +0.2
Incumbent Sen. Norm Coleman has jumped up a point since my last update two days ago, but the polls for this race have been all over the place. Rasmussen and Mason-Dixon have Coleman up by 4 and 6 points, respectively. Public Policy Polling and Minnesota Public Radio have Al Franken up by 5 and 4 points, respectively. Such volatile polling is probably due to the fact that Independent candidate Dean Barkley continues to hold onto about 15% of the vote in this race. And if the Barkley vote collapses (which is likely), it is unclear who it is likely to break for. Basically, this race could not be closer and harder to predict.

Georgia--Chambliss* +3.4
Democratic challenged Jim Martin is polling a few points behind incumbent Sen. Saxby Chambliss in most recent polling. Chambliss runs into the problem of early voting, where the Democrats have shown up in huge numbers and where the Obama campaign is making a serious play for the state and upping its advertising and get-out-the-vote effort. Nate Silver of FiveThirtyEight.com seems to think that the polls have been lowballing Jim Martin because they have shown that there is a fairly high number of African Americans, who he thinks will vote for Democrats down the ticket, such as Jim Martin. Both Silver and I think this race is a true toss-up and something I will be keeping a very close eye on election night.

Likely Republican:
These two races were once thought to be toss-ups, but in the past week that have broken in the direction of their respective Republican candidates.

Kentucky--McConnell* +5.2
Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell looked to be in some serious trouble last week against Bruce Lunsford. But the last three polls taken show that McConnell has widened his lead again to about five points. Lunsford looked to be gaining ground on McConnell, but then his poll numbers stalled out at around 44%. He also is not going to have the up-ticket coattails that are bound to occur in states like North Carolina and Georgia. He's going to need the vast majority of the undecided vote to break for him if he wants a shot to unseat McConnell.

Mississippi (Special)--Wicker* +8.5
This race appeared to be tight until about a week ago, when a Press Register poll showed that Sen. Roger Wicker had an 11-point lead over challenger Ronnie Musgrove. Rasmussen's latest poll backed up that finding and showed Wicker up by 11 points. Musgrove, a conservative Democrat, has not been funded as well by the Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee as candidates like Martin and Lunsford and appears to be heading towards defeat, barring a Democratic landslide.

So, all in all, it looks like the Democrats will have around 57-60 seats in the Senate. But the odds for picking up that 60th seat which would grant them a filibuster-proof majority--which would come from either Georgia, Kentucky, or Mississippi--are becoming increasingly unlikely.

Ron Paul Could Be a Spoiler in Montana

It's been months since Ron Paul officially dropped out of the race for the Republican nomination. But the Libertarian-turned-Republican Congressman from Texas might still play a major role in the general election--well, at least in Montana.

The Montana Constitution Party nominated Paul in the summer, but he has not been campaigning in the state and has even asked supporters to write in Chuck Baldwin, the national Constitution Party candidate. Paul even asked the secretary of state’s office to remove his name from the ballot, but state officials said they couldn’t.

However, Montana Republicans are worried that Paul might draw away enough votes from John McCain to tip the state into Barack Obama's favor. Recent polls show the race tightening in this typically reliable red state, which has not voted for a Democrat since Bill Clinton in 1992, when Ross Perot siphoned off a large number of Republican voters from George H.W. Bush.

A recent MSU-Billings from the state showed that Paul was drawing 4% of the vote--the exact margin Obama was winning by. Other polls show that McCain has a slight lead in the state.

During the Republican primaries, some of Paul’s strongest support came in Montana. He received about 25% of the vote in the state’s June primary--even after it was clear McCain was the party’s presumptive nominee. Paul is especially popular in the western part of the state, where there a many independent and libertarian-minded voters--many of whom really like their guns, and don't trust McCain or Obama on that issue.

Obama has been pouring money and resources into Montana in attempt to flip the state, while McCain has largely ignored Montana, although the RNC will begin independently airing ads there this week.

Even though Paul's quest for the presidency is long over, the Ron Paul Revolution may live on to fight another day and make a difference on November 4--again, at least in Montana.

State of the Race: 5 Days to Go

We have 32 new state polls today. Here's the averages for the battleground states with five days to go before election day:

Missouri (11)--Obama +0.4
Indiana (11)--McCain +0.6
North Carolina (15)--Obama +1.8
Montana (3)--McCain +2.2
Florida (27)--Obama +2.7
North Dakota (3)--McCain +3.1
Georgia (15)--McCain +4.1
Ohio (20)--Obama +4.9
Nevada (5)--Obama +5.8
Arizona (10)--McCain +6.2
Colorado (9)--Obama +6.7
Virginia (13)--Obama +6.8
West Virginia (5)--McCain +8.0
New Mexico (5)--Obama +8.4
Pennsylvania (21)--Obama +10.1
Wisconsin (10)--Obama +10.4
New Hampshire (4)--Obama +11.1
Iowa (7)--Obama +11.2
Minnesota (10)--Obama +12.4

TODAY'S ELECTORAL VOTE PROJECTION:
Obama: 364
McCain: 174

Both candidates get some good news from today's state polls, but overall the status of the battleground states has not changed very much. The national polls (which mean close to nothing) show McCain down by about 6 points. He needs to close that lead by about one point per day to have a chance in many of these states--and that is no easy feat when you have inferior ground operations, an inferior advertising budget and no real central campaign theme.

Over the past few days, every battleground state (except for North Dakota) have been polled and many of the major battleground states (Colorado, Virginia, Ohio, Florida, Nevada, Pennsylvania, North Carolina etc.) have been polled extensively. So we have a pretty good idea of where the race stands.

The good news for the McCain campaign comes from Indiana, where a Reuters/Zogby poll puts McCain up by six points. Rasmussen has him up by 3. However, an Indy Star/Selzer poll puts Obama up by one point, but that poll has had a Democratic lean this cycle. Notice that Indiana was the first state in over a week to change hands in my model. McCain now leads by 0.4 points overall, and I still consider it to be a toss-up.

Good news for Obama comes out of the upper Midwest today. He improved his position in Minnesota by two points since yesterday, as a result of a new Minnesota Public Radio that has him up by 19 in the state. SurveyUSA puts Obama up by 15 points in Iowa and 16 points in Wisconsin. These three states look like they're all out of play for McCain.

Obama is maintaining his small but significant leads in North Carolina, Florida and Ohio. McCain is holding on for dear life in Georgia.

Even if McCain somehow pulls off an upset in Pennsylvania, Obama may still counteract that with wins in Colorado, Virginia and Nevada, which would give him 270 electoral votes and thus the presidency. Obama has leads of 6 points or more in those three states right now and they may be just out of reach for McCain.

There's also some embarrassing news for the McCain campaign: he's running robocalls in his home state of Arizona. The calls mean Republicans are sinking resources into a state that obviously should have been a complete lock for McCain, and are not spending those resources in states like Indiana and Missouri, which are dead heats.

State of the Race: 6 Days to Go

There has been a ton of polling so far this week, so lets get to it. Here's today's battleground state averages:

Missouri (11)--Obama +0.2
Indiana (11)--Obama +0.7
North Carolina (15)--Obama +1.3
Montana (3)--McCain +2.5
North Dakota (3)--McCain +2.6
Florida (27)--Obama +3.0
Georgia (15)--McCain +4.1
Ohio (20)--Obama +5.4
Nevada (5)--Obama +5.7
Arizona (10)--McCain +6.0
Colorado (9)--Obama +6.8
Virginia (13)--Obama +7.0
West Virginia (5)--McCain +8.1
New Mexico (5)--Obama +8.3
Pennsylvania (21)--Obama +10.3
Minnesota (10)--Obama +10.4
New Hampshire (4)--Obama +10.5
Wisconsin (10)--Obama +10.7
Iowa (7)--Obama +11.4


TODAY'S ELECTORAL VOTE PROJECTION:
Obama: 375
McCain: 163

From my last update on Saturday, there have been 82 state polls. Most of them have been great news for Barack Obama and terrible news for John McCain. The battleground states should be tightening up at this point in the race, but it appears that Obama is expanding his lead, or at least maintaining it, in most of these states.

Since Saturday's update, Obama is up four points in New Hampshire, three points in Nevada, and one point in Colorado and Florida. New Hampshire is essentially a safe state for him now and Pennsylvania looks pretty out of reach--and those are the only two states that McCain has a chance to flip. Obama has double digit leads in both states. Sorry, John. So much for the Hail Mary pass.

I think something that truly signifies McCain's decline in the polls on a national scale is the most recent numbers from Arizona, his home state. The last three polls from Arizona have McCain up by 5, 2, and 8 points respectively. My average shows him up by about six points there. How embarrassing would it be if he lost his home state?

McCain has only made some minor gains in a few states since Saturday. He's up about two points in Missouri and about one point in Indiana, and West Virginia since my last update. He's pulled about even in Missouri, which is a relatively big step in the right direction in a state that he must win.

West Virginia looks like it's leaning more and more towards McCain again, but Obama has won a victory there in a sense in that he got the RNC to spend advertising money there. The RNC also dished out advertising cash in Montana this past week. Montana. Bush won by 21 points there, so you know the Republicans are in trouble. As Rachel Maddow said last night, that's comparable to the Democrats defending Massachusetts.

McCain better pray that something drastic happens in the next six days, like when Osama bin Laden came out with that video a few days before the 2004 election. That scared a lot of undecided voters into supporting Bush in the last few days, and helped tip the election in his favor. But Al Qaeda already endorsed McCain, so I guess that's out.

Senate Update: 6 Days to Go

It is a foregone conclusion that the Democrats will retain control of the Senate (as well as the House) this year, and that they will gain seats in both halls of Congress.

But the real question is whether or not Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee (DSCC) Chairman Sen. Chuck Schumer and the Democrats can pick off enough seats to have 60 seats in the Senate. If the Democrats reach that 60-seat threshold, the Republicans cannot filibuster any legislation and Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid will have complete control over what gets discussed on the Senate floor.

Right now there are 49 Democrats, 49 Republicans, and 2 Independents. One of the Independents, Bernie Sanders of Vermont, always votes with the Democrats. The other Independent is Joe Lieberman of Connecticut, the former Democratic vice presidential nominee who now supports John McCain. In the past, he has generally voted with the Democrats except on foreign policy issues.

So if we include Sanders and Lieberman as Democrats, they have a 51-49 majority right now. Democrats are heavily favored to pick up the open seats in Virginia, New Mexico and Colorado, which were all formerly occupied by Republicans. Assuming the Democrats pick those three states up, they now have a 54-46 majority.

Now, let's take a look at the eight closest Senate races, all of which have Republican incumbents. The Democrats need to win six of the eight listed below to reach that 60-seat majority. I have averaged the totals of three poll averaging websites--RealClearPolitics.com, Electoral-Vote.com and FiveThirtyEight.com--for each of these eight races. The races are listed from most to least competitive--the Democrats are in blue and the Republicans in red, and incumbents are marked with an asterisk.

Minnesota--Franken +0.8
The Democratic candidate, Al Franken, is a former liberal talk show radio host and comedian. He is up against incumbent Norm Coleman, a moderate Republican who is suffering from the GOP voter apathy that is happening across the country. The polls have been all over the place for this race, but it looks like its about even with about a week to go before election day. Also of note is that the Independent candidate, Dean Barkley, is polling at around 17-20% right now and appears to be drawing an equal number of Democrats and Republicans. However, he might have just enough impact to greatly affect who wins this race. It should be a close one, and one that I'll be watching closely.

North Carolina--Hagan +2.0
One-term incumbent Elizabeth Dole, wife of Bob Dole, is facing the fight of her life against State Senator Kay Hagan. Dole was the chairwoman of the National Republican Senatorial Committee in the disastrous 2006 midterm elections. To many North Carolina voters, she represents the continuation of the policies of George Bush and the old guard, but still has excellent name recognition in the state. Hagan may benefit from up-ticket supporters of Barack Obama, especially among African Americans.

Alaska--Begich +2.5
40-year incumbent Senator Ted Stevens looked like he was polling even with Anchorage Mayor Mark Begich until he was found guilty on seven counts of lying on his Senate disclosure forms to try to hide illegal gifts he received from an oil services company executive. He could face up to 35 years in jail, and given his age (he is 84), that probably means life in jail. The DSCC has stopped pouring money into the race and it looks like Begich will flip that seat. No polls have been taken in Alaska since Stevens's verdict, so expect the gap to widen in the next 6 days.

Georgia--Chambliss* +2.7
This race is probably the best shot for the Democrats to pick up their 60th seat. This race was not supposed to be close, but incumbent Saxby Chambliss is now very narrowly ahead of former Rep. Jim Martin. Chambliss and the state GOP are facing the massive voter registration drives of the Obama campaign. Obama believes he can pick up the state and is only a few points behind John McCain in the polls. Like Kay Hagan in North Carolina, Jim Martin will benefit from African American up-ticket voters that will and already have showed up to vote for Obama. This is definitely a race to watch on election night.

Kentucky--McConnell* +3.8
Remember when Democratic Senate Minority Leader Tom Daschle lost his seat in the 2004 election? Well, the same thing might happen to Republican Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell this time around. Kentucky is usually a reliable red state, and Obama isn't making a strong push here like he is in North Carolina and Virginia. McConnell is favored to hold his seat, but is facing a surprisingly competitive race against wealthy businessman Bruce Lunsford. McConnell's ties to the Bush administration may be his demise, but his fundraising and incumbency advantage may save him.

Oregon--Merkley +4.3
Incumbent Gordon Smith is a moderate Republican in a Democratic state, and his chances at six more years do not look good. Smith has very low approval ratings in Oregon and is trailing his opponent, State House Speaker Jeff Merkley. This race is representative of the national Democratic swing and the tarnishing of the Republican name. Oregon does voting by mail only, so most Oregonians have probably voted, so even if Merkley (or Obama) makes a major gaffe in the last week, those votes are already in and the effects may not matter that much. All in all, this seat looks ripe to flip.

Mississippi (Special)--Wicker* +7.6
Roger Wicker took over Trent Lott's senate seat in 2007, and is facing former governor Ronnie Musgrove in a special election this year. Musgrove is a very conservative Democrat, maybe even more to the right of some Republicans in the Senate, but his seat would be an improvement over Wicker for the Democrats. The race looked close up until this past week, when the polls showed the race opening up in favor of Wicker. Barring a national Democratic landslide, this seat looks like a longshot for the Democrats. Georgia and Kentucky are more likely to put the Democrats over the 60-seat hump.

New Hampshire--Shaheen +8.0
Incumbent John Sununu is facing former governor Jeanne Shaheen in a rematch of the 2002 open seat contest. Back then, Sununu won by 4%, but that was during a period of Republican dominance. In 2006, Democratic governor John Lynch was re-elected by 47 points, both of the House seats in the state flipped from Republicans to Democrats, and Dems won the majority in both the state House and Senate, so the state is clearly shifting to the left. Sununu has drawn criticism from both the right and the left in his six years in office, and Shaheen has been ahead of him in almost every poll. This state is very likely going to switch over to the Democrats.

Why is McCain Campaigning in Iowa?

Beats me.

Sarah Palin is campaigning in Sioux City, Iowa today, and John McCain will follow her tonight in Waterloo, CBS News' Scott Conroy reports:

The Democrats are maintaining a solid lead in the latest Iowa polls, and the state's dynamics would seem to suit the Democrats. Iowa was the state that catapulted Obama to the front of the Democratic pack after his victory in the state's caucuses in January, and John McCain finished a distant fourth in the Republican field.

Still, the Republicans have to compete in states with less than ideal conditions, and one GOP operative with strong Iowa ties recently told CBS News that internal polling numbers show that the state could be a lot closer than the polls indicate.

According to the RealClearPolitics polling average, Barack Obama has an 11.4 point lead over McCain. According to Electoral-Vote.com, McCain is down by ten points. FiveThirtyEight.com has him down by 12.4 points. Pollster.com has him down by 11.5 points.

Listen, John, your internals better have you a hell of a lot closer than those totals. Iowa, much like Pennsylvania, is essentially out of your reach. Instead of trying to make it seem like you're on the offensive, you should be in must-win states like Colorado and Virginia, where yeah, you're down, but you're certainly not out.

Why would you spend one of your precious few days (and a weekend at that) in a state that is all but out-of-play when you could be in states like Ohio, Florida, Missouri, or North Carolina, where Obama's leads are razor-thin?

I still contend that you should have fired your chief campaign strategists about a month ago, and now, they are completely delusional about your chances in states like Iowa. If you lose this thing--and right now it's looking like you are--people are going to make excuses that Barack Obama won because of the economic crisis or George Bush's legacy.

But another reason that most people will ignore is how badly your campaign has been run. This is not necessarily all on you, but it speaks volumes about who you surrounded yourself with in your campaign, and how they made a relatively good candidate run a terrible strategic campaign.

Take a lot at where Barack Obama and Joe Biden were today. Obama held rallies in Nevada then New Mexico, two pivotal states where he has a really good chance of winning, especially the latter. Biden was campaigning in Virginia today, one of the highly competitive states that is likely to put his ticket over the 270-electoral vote threshold on election night. That is how you are supposed to spend your last ten days before an election.

So get out of Waterloo, Sioux City, Pittsburgh, or Harrisburg or wherever you're going, and spend your last precious days and dollars where you have a remote chance of winning.

Nate Silver on McCain's Path to an Electoral Win

I thought this article by Nate Silver in the New York Post on how McCain can pull off a win in the electoral college was very interesting. Here's what he said the McCain campaign should do:

1. Abandon Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, Minnesota, Iowa. The notion that McCain is going to win Pennsylvania is folly. He has not led a poll in the Keystone since April, essentially since the Democratic primaries were competed and Obama laid down roots in the state. Current polls have McCain trailing by margins ranging from 7 to 13 points, well more than his disadvantage nationally. Pennsylvania is an expensive state to compete in. And contrary to the conventional wisdom, Obama did not particularly underperform his polls during the primaries (the final Pollster.com average projected Obama to lose Pennsylvania by 7.6 points, and Obama lost by 9.1, essentially within the margin of error).

Iowa is even worse for McCain; his position on ethanol is a non-starter there, and he hasn't led a poll in the state all year. Wisconsin and Minnesota aren't much better. Wisconsin borders Illinois and has same-day registration, which will allow Obama to run up the score with students in Madison and Milwaukee. Minnesota, in spite of being one of the few places where the Republicans have outadvertised the Democrats, has merely bent but not broken; McCain might get his margin within 2-3 points there, but it's hard to imagine him winning such a traditionally blue state.

2) Attack New Hampshire and New Mexico. On the other hand, New Hampshire and New Mexico might present more appealing opportunities. Obama's gains in the post-Lehman universe have come principally from white voters, which means that New Mexico, the most Hispanic state in the country, has drifted closer to the electoral tipping point. It is also dirt cheap to advertise in. New Hampshire is not as cheap, since its television market overlaps with Boston, but this is a state where McCain overperformed during the primaries in both 2000 and 2008, while Obama did just the opposite. And McCain's tax message might sell well in such a notoriously libertarian state.

3) Defend Colorado, Virginia, Nevada, Ohio and North Carolina. McCain faces uphill battles in Colorado and Virginia, where the demographic winds have shifted against him, and where he has been vastly out-organized on the ground. But they represent Obama's path of least resistance to 270 electoral votes, which means that McCain needs to do everything in his power to block it. Should Obama win all the Kerry states, plus Iowa and New Mexico, he only needs one of Colorado and Virginia to clinch the Electoral College, and right now he has solid leads in both.

McCain's problem in North Carolina and Nevada is that those states are already voting, and that Obama is banking votes there every day.

Between Clark and Washoe Counties, which represent about 85% of Nevada's population, Democratic early voters have outnumbered Republicans by about 2:1. Similar numbers apply in North Carolina, where Obama has already established a lead of several hundred thousand votes.

Ohio is more difficult to read, with polls showing everything from a 2-point McCain lead to a 14-point edge for Obama. But this is a state that is immensely dissatisfied with the Republicans establishment, and where Democrats have made huge gains in voter registrations. Unlike in 2004, moreover, Ohio has a Democrat as its Secretary of State, so something like a recount or a dispute over ballot access is more likely than not to be resolved in their favor.

4) Gamble on Florida, Missouri and Indiana. But McCain quite literally cannot afford to compete everywhere. In certain states, he needs to throw caution to the wind, and simply hope that they come back into his column if and when the national polls tighten. Florida is a good example. The state and local Republican parties are well-organized there, and Republicans have historically outperformed their polls there on election day (George W. Bush, ahead of John Kerry by only 1-2 points in most public polls in 2004, wound up winning by 5). There is also a gay marriage initiative on the ballot, which might draw older voters to the polls.

Indiana and Missouri are in some senses riskier; they border Illinois, so they'll be flooded with Democratic volunteers on Election Day, and Obama closed strongly in both states during the primaries. But Missouri is no longer a true bellwether; it was between 4 and 5 points redder than the country as a whole in the last two election cycles, and McCain has to hope that the same holds this year. And in Indiana, a state where both public and private polls have diverged wildly from one another, McCain simply has to hope that George W. Bush's 21-point advantage in 2004 is too much for any Democrat to overcome in one year.

By no means would this strategy make a victory likely for John McCain. He needs to find some way to win several news cycles during the last week of the campaign, and then he needs hope, faith, and a lot of luck. But faced with a dire situation, McCain needs to re-find the focus and discipline that he has been lacking for much of the campaign; this is his best chance to do so.

State of the Race: 10 Days to Go

It was a slow polling day, with only a few new polls coming out today. Here are the numbers, and as always, the states are listed from most to least competitive.

North Carolina (15)--Obama +1.1
Missouri (11)--Obama +2.0
Florida (27)--Obama +2.0
Montana (3)--McCain +2.4
Indiana (11)--Obama +2.7
Nevada (5)--Obama +2.7
North Dakota (3)--McCain +2.7
Georgia (15)--McCain +4.0
Ohio (20)--Obama +5.3
Colorado (9)--Obama +5.8
New Hampshire (4)--Obama +6.3
Virginia (13)--Obama +6.8
West Virginia (5)--McCain +6.9
New Mexico (5)--Obama +8.3
Pennsylvania (21)--Obama +10.5
Minnesota (10)--Obama +11.1
Wisconsin (10)--Obama +11.2
Iowa (7)--Obama +11.3

TODAY'S ELECTORAL VOTE PROJECTION:
Obama: 375
McCain: 163

One poll that came out after yesterday's update was the Rasmussen poll in New Hampshire, and boy was it good news for John McCain. The poll showed him down by only four points, cutting the margin down considerably from the last batch of polls from the state. New Hampshire still remains McCain's best opportunity to pick off a Kerry state.

Another Rasmussen poll that came out after yesterday's update out of Iowa shows that the state is not totally out of play. According to that poll, McCain is only down by eight points, which is not terrible news for McCain. It shows that Obama has not yet sealed the deal, but it will still be very hard for McCain to win there. McCain is spending most of the weekend in Iowa, in search of some much-needed electoral votes, but his chances look grim.

The McCain campaign's decision to go all-out for Pennsylvania has not really moved the polls at all. Obama continues to hold a double-digit advantage over McCain according to the Morning Call Pennsylvania tracking poll.

Some more bad news for the McCain camp is the results from today's Rocky Mountain News poll, which has Obama up by 12 there. If McCain doesn't win Pennsylvania (and it looks like he's not), Colorado is one of the states he must win, along with Nevada, Missouri, Indiana, Ohio, Virginia, North Carolina, Georgia, and Florida.

Also, the reliable Ohio Newspaper poll puts Obama up by three in the Buckeye state, which is a definite improvement for McCain over the double digit deficits he got in the last two polls. This poll seems more logical than the last two--I do not for a second believe that Obama has a double-digit lead over McCain in Ohio.

State of the Race: 11 Days to Go

I'm a bit pressed for time, so I'd like to give you just the numbers and a brief analysis of them. Here are my averages for each of the 18 battleground states (I've removed Michigan from the list, Obama leads by over 15 points there) with 11 days to go before election day. The states are listed from most to least competitive.

North Carolina (15)--Obama +1.6
Missouri (11)--Obama +2.1
North Dakota (3)--McCain +2.1
Montana (3)--McCain +2.2
Florida (27)--Obama +2.3
Indiana (3)--Obama +2.7
Nevada (5)--Obama +2.8
Georgia (15)--McCain +5.1
Ohio (20)--Obama +5.4
Colorado (9)--Obama +5.6
Virginia (13)--Obama +6.9
West Virginia (5)--McCain +7.0
New Hampshire (4)--Obama +7.9
New Mexico (5)--Obama +8.4
Pennsylvania (21)--Obama +10.9
Wisconsin (10)--Obama +11.4
Minnesota (10)--Obama +11.6
Iowa (7)--Obama +13.1

TODAY'S ELECTORAL VOTE PROJECTION:
Obama: 375
McCain: 163

A batch of Big 10 Battleground polls from the University of Wisconsin that came out yesterday shows Obama up by double digits in Ohio, Pennsylvania, Michigan, Illinois, Minnesota, Wisconsin, Iowa, and even Indiana. Quinnipiac has Obama ahead by 14 points in Ohio, 13 points in Pennsylvania, and 5 points in Florida.

Some are saying that yesterday was McCain's worst polling day of the year. However, the national tracking polls did not change drastically--all of the action was at the state level. Polls showing him down double digits in Pennsylvania and Ohio--both of which have become must-win states for him--as well as in Indiana is really bad news for the McCain campaign.

Even more bad news comes from reliably red Montana, where a new poll from MSU-Billings shows Obama up by four points there. Also of note is the fact that Ron Paul is on the ballot in that state and he drew 4 percent of the vote in the same poll--the exact difference between Obama and McCain.

Also, a new Insider Advantage poll shows Obama with a lead (albeit an insignificant one) in Georgia. If McCain is having trouble defending deep red states such as this at this point in the campaign, it bodes ill for him on election night.

McCain does get some good news out of a Strategic Vision poll in Florida--where he leads by two points--and Ohio--where he leads by three. But take into account that Strategic Vision is a notoriously right-leaning pollster. McCain also gets some good news out of a Rasmussen poll in North Carolina, where he also leads Obama by two points. But my model still shows Obama with leads in all three of these states.

State of the Race: 12 Days to Go

So here's a quick look at where the 19 battleground states currently stand, in order from most to least competitive based on recent polling. I have averaged the totals of three poll averaging websites--RealClearPolitics.com, Electoral-Vote.com and FiveThirtyEight.com--for each of these states. Let's take a look.

Florida (27 EV's)--Obama +1.5
I thought that this classic swing state would have trended to John McCain at this point in the race, but Barack Obama has gotten some good numbers here in the most recent polls. He is also heavily outspending and out-advertising McCain in the state. But this is a must-win for McCain.

North Carolina (15 EV's)--Obama +1.8
Who would have thought that at this point in the race, a state that George Bush won by 12 and 13 points in 2000 and 2004, respectively, would still be in play? Obama is making a hard push to flip North Carolina's fifteen electoral votes that have not gone for a Democrat since Jimmy Carter in 1976. This state will be interesting to watch on election night, because not only is this state a tossup in the presidential race, but there are extremely close senatorial and gubernatorial races happening in this state. This is also a must-win state for McCain.

Missouri (11 EV's)--Obama +1.9
This state is typically a bellwether for the rest of the country, as it has voted for the winning candidate in the presidential election in the last 12 elections. This is another state McCain must carry if he wants any shot at reaching 270 electoral votes.

Indiana (11 EV's)--McCain +2.1
The Hoosier State is usually a reliable red state, but Obama has made a huge push for the state. This state's polls close at 6:00 P.M. on election day and the first results from the state will be an early indicator of just how bad things are going to be for McCain for the rest of the night.

Nevada (5 EV's)--Obama +2.7
Even though Nevada only has five electoral votes, victory in the state has become crucial in the McCain campaign's electoral math. The Hispanics vote will play a huge role in the state's final results, and right now they seem to be trending heavily towards Obama.

North Dakota (3 EV's)--McCain +3.0
Yeah, I'm surprised that this state is so high up on this list as well (or even the fact that's it's on this list at all). This is a state that Bush won by 27 and 28 points in the last two elections. Obama removed most of his resources and staff from the state earlier in the Fall, but now they're considering moving them back as a result of their surprisingly strong recent poll numbers.

Ohio (20 EV's)--Obama +3.4
Ah yes, the classic battleground and bellwether state, home of Joe the Plumber and a long history of indecisiveness. Obama's ground and turnout operation here are said to be massive and unprecedented. McCain absolutely needs this state to reach 270.

Montana (3 EV's)--McCain +4.6
Like North Dakota, this should be a state that McCain should win easily. But the most recent polls show the race nearly dead even there. This is a state with a high number of libertarians and traditional conservatives, yet it does have a Democratic governor and one Democratic senator.

Colorado (9 EV's)--Obama +5.2
Obama's lead has remained pretty steady here in the last month, and many think Obama has built a formidable firewall here. McCain recently stopped his advertising here, showing that he thinks the state is slipping too far away. I will be watching this state very closely on election night, because it may very well put Obama over the top.

Georgia (15 EV's)--McCain +6.4
I'm really surprised that the race is this close here this late in the game. The Obama team has been encouraged by the most recent poll numbers here and is considering upping the effort and making a real push for it before election day.

Virginia (13 EV's)--Obama +6.7
I also thought that this state would be a lot closer this late this close to election day, but Obama holds a strong lead here and has built up something of a firewall. His surge and main area of support is in the Washington, D.C. suburbs in Northern Virginia. This is yet another must-win state for McCain.

West Virginia (5 EV's)--McCain +7.3
For a little while, it looked like Obama could pick off this overwhelmingly white state where he got about a quarter of the vote in the primaries. But more recent polls have him down by a larger margin, and this state is not likely to switch hands this year.

New Hampshire (4 EV's)--Obama +7.6
This is one of the few states that switched hands between 2000 and 2004, and has always been very competitive. This state revived McCain's primary campaigns in 2000 and 2004, and he is liked and respected up there. But their fear of four more years of Bush might trump their affection for McCain. This is probably the best shot McCain has of picking off a blue state, and right now it is the most competitive Kerry state.

New Mexico (5 EV's)--Obama +8.2
It has been pretty well-established that this state, along with Iowa, were the two Bush states that were definitely going to change hands this year. The McCain campaign has essentially abandoned the state and Obama should carry it by a significant margin on election night.

Minnesota (10 EV's)--Obama +10.4
McCain and the Republicans held their convention here in September, but it's looking like they are not going to flip the state this year. They have recently dialed down their advertising and organizational efforts here in a sign that this state is essentially out of reach.

Wisconsin (10 EV's)--Obama +10.6
This state is very similar demographically to Minnesota, except that it has a larger population of independents and has a much stronger anti-Bush feel to it. McCain has also stopped his advertising here in the past week. I expect Obama to carry this state easily on November 4.

Pennsylvania (21 EV's)--Obama +10.8
Take a minute and look how far down this state is on this list. Then look at the lead Obama has. This is the state that McCain is placing all of his hope in. Not Colorado, not Virginia, but Pennsylvania. The most recent polls show Obama up by double digits here, despite a vastly increased effort in the state by the McCain campaign. Good luck picking this one off, guys.

Iowa (7 EV's)--Obama +12.2
As soon as McCain said that he was against ethanol subsidies, he basically conceded this state. During the primaries, McCain basically ignored the state and Obama essentially lived in the state for about a year. The Iowan voters that gave the early advantage over Hillary Clinton in the primaries know him very well. It has been a foregone conclusion for a while that Obama would carry Iowa by a significant margin.

Michigan (17 EV's)--Obama +14.4
I don't even know why I'm still calling this a battleground state. Ever since McCain pulled out of this state last month, his poll numbers have taken a serious nose dive. He has almost zero chance of carrying the state now.

McCain Puts All Hope in Pennsylvania

Yesterday, CNN reported that two top McCain campaign strategists had said that they were basically abandoning New Mexico (5 EV's) and Iowa (7 EV's), two states that George Bush won in 2004, where Barack Obama leads heavily in the polls (he leads by about 8 points in New Mexico and by about 12 points in Iowa).

CNN also reported that McCain might be conceding Colorado, a state where Obama leads by about 5 points in the polls. One source from the McCain campaign said that while the polls in Colorado remain close, he and most others in the operation were of the opinion that the Obama campaign and its allies have a far superior ground/turnout operation and said "most of us have a hard time counting on Colorado."But a few operatives from the campaign are now saying that they still believe the state is still in play.

However, the New York Times reported today that McCain is reducing his advertising in Colorado as well as four states that John Kerry won in 2004: New Hampshire, Wisconsin, Minnesota, and Maine. This move is not necessarily a permanent one, but it certainly shows a shift of priorities in his campaign.

So okay, let's assume that Obama wins all of the states Kerry won in 2004 (Obama leads in all of these states by at least 9 points) plus Iowa and New Mexico. That would give him 264 electoral votes, just six shy of the 270 needed to put him over the top. Now, since McCain is pulling most of his advertising money out of Colorado, let's give that to Obama as well. That gives him 273 electoral votes, making him our next president.

In this scenario, even McCain he carries all of the other swing states, he still loses 273-265 in the electoral college. So what's his strategy now? Well, it's simple.

His strategy is to win Ohio, Florida, North Carolina, Virginia, Missouri, Nevada, and Indiana--all of which are must-win states where the race is essentially tied or Obama is ahead--and to pick off Pennsylvania and its 21 electoral votes from the Democrats. Yes, I'm serious.

McCain seems to be giving up on any path to victory that does not involve Pennsylvania, a state that has not voted for a Republican in 20 years. His victory strategy depends on a state where he is down by an average of about 11 points and where registered Democrats outnumber registered Republicans by 1.1 million. Yikes.

Here's Al Giordano's take on this...um...brave new strategy:

But here's what I think is going on at McCain strategy central: They're getting tired of the daily drumbeat on cable TV news and by newspaper pundits that says things like, "here are the six or seven swing states, all of them voted for Bush in 2004, Obama is winning or tied in most of them, and for McCain to win he has to run the table, taking every single one of them or it's over."

That message - that there is only one narrow Electoral College path to victory for McCain, while there are multiple ones for Obama - has cast a deathly spell over the GOP base's enthusiasm, which is now being reflected in paltry early voting numbers by Republican voters, especially in Nevada and North Carolina. And so they're trying to offer the faithful a belief in the suggestion that McCain, too, has multiple paths to win.

So basically Al thinks that McCain may be trying to use Pennsylvania--a state where his numbers have nowhere to go but up--in order to create a sense of momentum that may increase enthusiasm among his supporters in traditionally red states and change the narrative of the race. The campaign wants to appear like its on the offensive, not just defending old Bush states.

Pennsylvania Gov. Ed Rendell, a Democrat, said Tuesday: "Pennsylvania is essential to their [McCain's] victory plan, though it's a longshot. If you assume Iowa is gone and New Mexico is gone and Virginia is gone, they have to win a substantial blue state. And we're the best choice out of a lot of bad choices."

I am guessing that the McCain team chose this state to make their final stand because Obama underperformed there in the primaries and they believe that they can pick off some Hillary Clinton supporters in the central part of the state, which is more rural and socially conservative. But we all know that he's going to have to woo those people over with something other than the economy. Maybe he'll throw out his principles and inject Rev. Jeremiah Wright back into the mix to try and make the campaign about race. Hell, it worked during the primaries.

This move strikes me as a desperate one. The word kamikaze comes to mind. McCain is betting the farm on a state where nearly every public poll shows that Obama will win the state in a landslide. McCain's political director Michael Duhaime said that their internal data is trending is trending in McCain's favor. I would really like to see those numbers, and how they know that their internal data is better than all of the other public polls out there.

Now, I believe that the polls are exaggerating Obama's lead in Pennsylvania and I don't think he's winning there by double digits. The polls should tighten in the next two weeks, but I do think that Obama still holds a significant advantage there. I understand why the McCain campaign has targeted this state, but I think they would be better suited to go after Colorado, where the race looks closer.

I'll leave you with a passage from Nate Silver:

The McCain campaign does not have any particular idea how they're going to win Pennsylvania, nor why the public polls have the state wrong -- they're just hoping their numbers are right, and hoping that something comes together for them.

As a famous Democrat once said, of course, hope is not a strategy.

Obama Raises $150 million in Sept.

Barack Obama raised more than $150 million in September, a number that no other political candidate has ever reached in a single month. The campaign released this figure today on the same day of Colin Powell's endorsement of Obama.

Campaign manager David Plouffe said the campaign had added 632,000 new donors in September, for a total of 3.1 million total contributors to the campaign. He said the average donation was $86. What is shocking about this is that most of these contributors don't donate the maximum amount that campaign finance laws allow, they are giving $20 to $100 at a time to his campaign, which is very unusual in presidential races.

These kinds of numbers are possible because Obama opted out of public financing--he is the first candidate in history to do so--and is virtually unrestricted in his fundraising abilities. John McCain, on the other hand, chose to take public financing which limits him to $84 million dollars in the last two months of the campaign.

These new fundraising figures raise Obama's total amount of money raised to $605 million, which is the most money raised in any presidential campaign. Ever. His previous record for fundraising was in August, when he raised $65 million.

Obama's massive financial advantage has allowed him to outspend McCain in every single battleground state. He is currently outspending McCain on TV advertising four-to-one. With this advantage, he has secured strong footholds in all of the states that John Kerry won in 2004 along with Iowa and New Mexico. But he has also been able to expand the contest to reliably Republican states such as Indiana, North Carolina, and West Virginia, and has forced McCain and the RNC to spend their money defensively.

Plouffe announced that they would be spending some $5 million dollars in West Virginia in the 16 days before election day, which could go a long way in buying TV advertising, seeing as it is a fairly cheap state to advertise in. Plouffe also hinted that they might be expanding even further in states such as North Dakota and Georgia, two other reliably Republican states where polls have shown a tightening race.

Colin Powell Endorses Obama

Former Secretary of State and long-time Republican Gen. Colin Powell (Ret.) endorsed Democrat Barack Obama for president.

On "Meet the Press" just about an hour ago, Powell said that although both men are qualified to be commander in chief, Obama is the man that this country and world needs now at this critical juncture in history. He also added that Obama has shown through his steadiness and poise that he is more suited to handle the nation's economic problems as well as improve America's standing in the world.

"But I firmly believe that at this point in America's history, we need a president that will not just continue, even with a new face and with the changes and with some maverick aspects, who will not just continue basically the policies that we have been following in recent years," Powell said.

"I think we need a transformational figure. I think we need a president who is a generational change and that's why I'm supporting Barack Obama, not out of any lack of respect or admiration for Sen. John McCain."

As I described in an earlier entry on this very subject, Powell's endorsement is very significant because he is a Republican with unmatched foreign policy credentials, a subject on which Obama is weak.

When host Tom Brokaw asked if Obama's race had anything to do with his decision, Powell responded that it was not a dominant factor in his decision. If he was basing his decision on race alone, he said he would have endorsed Obama months ago.

Powell spoke fondly of John McCain throughout the interview, citing him as a friend of 25 years who he has great respect and admiration for. He also added that he could also be a good president.

However, Powell said that he was disappointed with the negative tone of his campaign, citing that the whole William Ayers issue should not even be an issue and that Obama clearly had a very, very limited relationship with the man. He expressed disappointment that although McCain had said that he "did not care about an old washed up terrorist" in the third presidential debate, he had continued to bring him up and centralize his campaign around the man, as well as condone the robo-calls being made to hundreds of thousands of Americans around the country regarding Obama's relationship with Ayers that he feels are dividing the country.

Powell was also troubled by Republican personal attacks on Obama, especially false intimations that Obama was Muslim. Stressing that Obama was a lifelong Christian, Powell denounced Republican tactics that he said were insulting not only to to Obama but also to Muslims.

“The really right answer is what if he is?” Powell said, praising the contributions of millions of Muslim citizens to American society.

“I look at these kind of approaches to the campaign, and they trouble me,” Powell said. He also criticized his own party: “Over the last seven weeks, the approach of the Republican Party has become narrower and narrower.”

Powell also expressed that McCain's choice of Sarah Palin as his running mate raised questions about his judgment and about who he would bring into his administration. "I don't believe she's ready to be president of the United States," Powell said of Palin. By contrast, he said that Obama’s running mate, Joe Biden, “is ready to be president on day one.”

Powell, as secretary of state under George W. Bush, helped make the case before the United Nations for the U.S.-led invasion of Iraq in 2003. A retired general, he also was the nation's top military commander, chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, during the first Gulf war under President George H.W. Bush.

On Fox News Sunday, McCain said he disagreed with Powell's decision to endorse Obama, and touted that he had been endorsed by four other secretaries of state under Republican administrations.

"Well, I've always admired and respected Gen. Powell. We're longtime friends. This doesn't come as a surprise," McCain said.

Asked whether Powell's endorsement would undercut his campaign's repeated assertion that Obama is not ready to lead, McCain said: "Well, again, we have a very, we have a respectful disagreement, and I think the American people will pay close attention to our message for the future and keeping America secure."

At the end of the interview with Brokaw, Powell said that he does not plan on campaigning for Obama in these last few weeks. When asked whether he would consider joining the next president's cabinet, Powell said that he is not eager to return to that kind of position, but would sit down and talk or give advice to either candidate.

In the end, Powell's endorsement can only help Obama and hurt McCain. It may reassure many voters who were leaning towards Obama but were not quite convinced that he is ready to be commander in chief. This endorsement might also help Obama among veterans in the veteran-rich battlegrounds of Florida, North Carolina and Northern Virginia (with the latter being the most important swing region in the country).

At the very least, it will dominate the news cycle of the next few days and it will bring positive attention to the Obama campaign. It will also help to run out the clock on McCain campaign, which is still looking for a way to turn this race around, but it running out of time.

Here is a clip from his endorsement.

UPDATE: Barack Obama acknowledged and welcomed Powell's support at an afternoon rally today in Fayetteville, North Carolina:

"This morning, a great soldier, a great statesman, and a great American has endorsed our campaign to change America," Obama said. "I have been honored to have the benefit of his wisdom and counsel from time to time over the last few years. ... He knows, as we do, that this is a moment where we all need to come together as one nation -- young and old, rich and poor, black and white, Republican and Democrat."

Obama Dominating Early Voting

Last week, SurveyUSA started polling in states in which some form of early voting was already underway. They asked respondents: "Have you already voted?" If the answer was yes, they asked: "For whom?"

Here are their results among early voters from five key swing states, all of which George W. Bush carried in 2004 (in parentheses are the percentages of respondents in the state who voted early):

Georgia--Obama +6 (18% voted early)
Iowa--Obama +34 (14% voted early)
New Mexico--Obama +23 (10% voted early)
North Carolina--Obama +34 (5% voted early)
Ohio--Obama +18 (12% voted early)

Remember that these numbers are only estimates and are subject to same kind of statistical inconsistencies as other polls, such as response bias and small sample sizes (the number of early voters polled in Ohio was only about 60).

In addition, early voters are probably not representative of the state as a whole. These voters tend to be more partisan and already have their minds made up, while the swing voters will probably wait until November 4 (only 1-2 percent of early voters in 2000 and 2004 reported that they would have voted differently if they'd waited until election day). So take these results with a grain of salt.

But, there is no doubt that these numbers are good news for Barack Obama. One thing that these results do show is a massive advantage for Democrats in enthusiasm and voter turnout. These results imply that, as expected, Obama is turning out his base in very large numbers, and so far it looks like John McCain is lagging in rallying up his base.

Bush carried these five states by an average of 6.5% in 2004, and now Obama leads in them by an average of 23% among early voters. That alone is reason for the Obama campaign to celebrate.

Another bit of good news that this result brings us is the fact that early voters tend to be older and more male than the voting population as a whole, factors which would seem to cut against Obama, who is strongest among women and younger voters.

From these numbers we can expect a large Democratic turnout on election day, one that McCain and the Republicans might struggle to match, affecting not only the outcome of the presidential race, but also many competitive down-ticket Congressional and Gubernatorial races in favor of the Democrats.

Will Colin Powell Endorse Obama?

Retired Gen. Colin Powell, a national security adviser to the last three Republican presidents, now may endorse Barack Obama, according to Republican sources. The rumors of this endorsement began to spread after it was announced that Powell would appear on "Meet the Press" this Sunday.

Powell has effectively stayed out of the political arena since he stepped down from his position of Secretary of State under President Bush in 2004, and no one has any idea what he's going to say on Sunday.

An endorsement from Powell at this point in the campaign could be big for Obama. As of now, Powell is the biggest name in politics that remains on the sidelines of this presidential race. Endorsements don't carry as much weight as they used to, but if Powell threw his support behind Obama, it would get several days worth of coverage and would dominate the news cycles.

It also might reassure some undecided voters who are concerned about voting for an African-American they don't know by hearing some validation from an African-American they know and respect. Powell holds an unusual position in American politics as a respected elder political figure who was never president, and was also talked about as the possible first African-American nominee of a major party back in 1996.

In addition, with Powell's unassailable national security credentials, an endorsement could also reassure some undecided voters who are unsure if Obama is ready to be commander-in-chief, and it would essentially erase any advantage John McCain would have on national security come election day.

Some McCain advisers have a bad feeling in their gut that he will announce his support for Obama on Sunday. “It’s going to make a lot of news, and certainly be personally embarrassing for McCain," a McCain official said. "It comes at a time when we need momentum, and it would create momentum against us.”

A friend and ex-aide said that Powell was extremely "upset" by the "vitriol, bile and prejudice" aimed at Obama on the campaign trail. However, Powell is a long-time Republican and friend of John McCain.

I am not convinced that he will come out and endorse either candidate (yes, it is possible that he will endorse McCain) on Sunday. He may appear to lean toward one candidate or the other (probably Obama), but he's a cautious guy, so he probably won't make any sweeping statement or endorsement in full support of either candidate on "Meet the Press."

Rumors of him coming out to endorse Obama surfaced during the primaries and around the time of the conventions, but to no effect. Also, he has managed to stay out of partisan politics for four years now, and I am not convinced that he will just dive in all of a sudden.

Of course, if he strongly believes that Obama will win anyway, he may just jump on the bandwagon so he can get a national security position in Obama's cabinet. But given Powell's reputation for dignity and honesty, that is very unlikely. We'll just have to wait and see what happens on Sunday.

UPDATE: Sources close to Powell say that he will probably stop short of a formal endorsement of Barack Obama on "Meet the Press" on Sunday morning, and it is expected to be more implied than explicit. A well-informed source told the New York Daily News: "After Sunday people aren't going to have any doubt who he's voting for." Full story here.

Supreme Court Sides with Ohio Dems

Here's the ruling from the Supreme Court that came out today regarding voter registration in Ohio, courtesy of Bloomberg:

The U.S. Supreme Court, siding with Democrats, freed Ohio officials from a lower court order that might have limited participation by new voters in next month's presidential election.

Today's ruling means Ohio Secretary of State Jennifer Brunner, a Democrat, doesn't have to provide county election boards with lists of new registrants whose information doesn't match up with government databases. A federal trial judge had ordered Brunner to supply the lists by today.

Republicans who sued Brunner "are not sufficiently likely to prevail'' in their lawsuit, the Supreme Court said in a two- page order, which came without published dissent.

Brunner said the judge's order could have affected as many as 200,000 Ohioans, potentially forcing them to cast provisional ballots instead of regular ballots. Democrats likely would have been disproportionately affected by the judge's order because of the party's efforts to register new voters this year.

The Ohio Republican Party accused Brunner of ignoring her duty under a federal law to help weed out fraudulent registrations. The dispute was one of several fights that have made Ohio a center of legal controversy leading up to the Nov. 4 election.

This is surely a big win for the Democrats and will save them a lot of trouble, but I don't think that it will make a big difference in the outcome of the race in Ohio. But who knows.

McCain Strong But Angry in Final Debate

John McCain faced off against Barack Obama for the third time in what may well have been the final debate of his political career. The two met at Hofstra University on Long Island last night, and the stakes could not have been higher--well, at least for McCain.

The bottom line for McCain--as all the pundits tirelessly repeated in the coverage before the debate--was that he needed a game changer. He needed to go on the attack and put Obama in a defensive position.

All Obama needed going in was to not commit any major mistakes and to avoid an embarrassing "YouTube moment." His other job in the debate was to not look like he was too confident or complacent with his recent lead in the polls.

For the first half hour of the debate, McCain came out strong, passionate, lively, and a tad bit angry--which I think came across well to viewers. He came out swinging against Obama and attacked him successfully on his economic policies and government spending.

McCain had one of the best lines of the night after Obama was comparing him to President Bush: "Senator Obama. I am not President Bush. If you wanted to run against President Bush, you should have run four years ago." McCain also scored unintentionally by calling Obama "Senator Government" by accident early on in the night. The dials on CNN of a group of uncommitted voters in Ohio responded well to McCain in the first thirty minutes.

But the tide of the debate began to turn when the moderator, Bob Schieffer of CBS (who did a fantastic job, by the way), asked if there was anything that either candidate wanted to say to each other's face. He was of course implying that McCain should bring up William Ayers, but McCain essentially wussed out.

Instead, he started talking about Rep. John Lewis's comments about how hateful his campaign had gotten and how McCain and Palin's town hall-style rallies reminded him of George Wallace and the angry pro-segregation sentiment of the 1960s. McCain again asked Obama to repudiate those comments, and tried to paint the picture that Obama was principally responsible for the negative tone of the campaign. But voters came into the debate thinking by a 2:1 margin that McCain was running a negative campaign and Obama a positive one. Fighting that kind of perception is futile and a waste of time.

A few moments later, McCain brought up Ayers and ACORN:

Mr. Ayers, I don't care about an old washed-up terrorist. But as Senator Clinton said in her debates with you, we need to know the full extent of that relationship.

We need to know the full extent of Senator Obama's relationship with ACORN, who is now on the verge of maybe perpetrating one of the greatest frauds in voter history in this country, maybe destroying the fabric of democracy. The same front outfit organization that your campaign gave $832,000 for "lighting and site selection." So all of these things need to be examined, of course.

Then, he added this:

And it's not the fact -- it's not the fact that Senator Obama chooses to associate with a guy who in 2001 said that he wished he had have bombed more, and he had a long association with him. It's the fact that all the -- all of the details need to be known about Senator Obama's relationship with them and with ACORN and the American people will make a judgment.

And my campaign is about getting this economy back on track, about creating jobs, about a brighter future for America. And that's what my campaign is about and I'm not going to raise taxes the way Senator Obama wants to raise taxes in a tough economy. And that's really what this campaign is going to be about.

So basically what he is did was mere seconds after bringing up Ayers and ACORN--which polls have shown time and again that most voters don't care about--McCain flatly said that his campaign has always been and still all about the economy. That is absolutely ridiculous, and clearly the voters watching didn't buy it.

From there on out, McCain was tense, angry, smug and sarcastic, and did not look at all presidential, while Obama kept his poise and stayed in control. McCain's legendary short temper certainly came out last night in full form. The split screens that were featured for the first time on the major news networks certainly did not help McCain, especially in the last hour of the debate. He was blinking like crazy and doing this really weird tongue jut thing, especially when he was getting angry at Obama.

Something that McCain brought up right off the bat and repeated throughout the debate was the ballad of Joe Wurzelbacher (McCain actually got his last name wrong, but hey, no one's perfect), better known as Joe the Plumber. He used Joe as a jumping-off point for his charge that Obama's tax plan would hurt small-business owners like Joe. He mentioned Joe's name no fewer than 20 times throughout the night, and he seemed to score some points initially with the Joe the Plumber exchanges. Both McCain and Obama addressed Joe directly dozens of times, but I think that McCain won most of those exchanges.

So who won this thing? Well, let's turn to the insta-polls taken right after the debate.

The CNN/Opinion Research poll taken right after the debate found that Obama won, 58% to 31%--almost a 2-1 margin. It also found that on the issue of the economy, 59% said Obama would manage it better and 24% said McCain would. Respondents also preferred Obama's stance on taxes 56% to 41% and also his stance on health care by 62% to 31%. The people polled also said Obama expressed his views better, was the stronger leader, was more likable, and was less of a typical politician.

A CBS poll of 638 uncommitted voters showed a similar result and found that Obama won 53% to 22%--more than a 2-1 margin. And a MediaCurves poll found that independents thought that Obama won 60% to 30%.

Personally, I thought that this was by far McCain's best performance out of the three debates. He started off crisp and strong and clearly had the advantage in the first 20-30 minutes. But Obama deflected his attacks very well and did not make any gaffes of any kind. And when McCain was getting angry and fired up and started to look un-presidential in the last hour, Obama stayed cool, calm, collected, and focused.

It also seemed that Obama was trying to appeal to moderates, independents and undecided voters while it seemed like McCain was still trying to appeal to conservatives (with the exception of his Bush comment). Maybe it was just me, but it did seem a little bizarre that he was still trying to earn brownie points with the right, when it is clear that they fully support him and Sarah Palin.

Here's the bottom line. With 19 days until election day, McCain needed to change the dynamic of the race last night. This was his last chance to convince the public that they should be scared of Obama, whether it was with Ayers, Wright or just on his liberal policies, and he didn't accomplish that last night. But let me be clear. I think McCain did very well last night--just not well enough to make a real difference. I fully expect his poll numbers to go up a point or two over the next few days, but it won't be the drastic change that he needs to turn this thing back into a horse race.

This race is now about Barack Obama and Barack Obama alone. John McCain can keep on trying his current strategy, but I don't think it will make much difference at this point. It is clear that the majority of voters are tired of Bush and the Republicans and want change. McCain has attempted to claim that he is also a change agent, but I don't think that most voters are buying it. The only question that remained was whether the American people believed that Obama was up to the job. And after the public crowned Obama the winner of all three presidential debates, it is clear that they now think that he's up to it.

If the dynamic of the race does not change from what it is right now, we could be in for an early night on November 4. Here it is in a nutshell: McCain can't beat Obama. He has to hope that Obama somehow beats himself.