CO: Poll Shows That Bennet is Still Largely Unknown

Here's the results from the latest PPP poll, which pitted newly appointed Sen. Michael Bennet (D-CO) against two Republican rivals: former Gov. Bill Owens and former Rep. Tom Tancredo.

Bennet--41%
Owens--44%

Bennet--48%
Tancredo--39%

Although Bennet doesn't do so hot in this poll, you have to take into account the fact that nearly half of Colorado voters (45%) don't know enough about him to form an opinion of him, so we really shouldn't take the results of this poll too seriously.

Nevertheless, it seems like Owens is the GOP's best shot of unseating Bennet--but Owens has backed down from running for statewide office the last two election cycles, and is considered unlikely to run.

This poll confirmed the fact that Tancredo--despite his high profile--would be a very weak general election candidate. Bennet's numbers shot up from 41% to 48% when pitted against Tancredo, a clear sign that Colorado voters already hold a negative opinion of him and would reject him in the general election.

The poll did not pit Bennet against former US Attorney Troy Eid, who could potentially be a strong contender.

The two other frequently mentioned names on the Republican side, state Attorney Gen. John Suthers and former Rep. Scott McInnis, took themselves out of the running yesterday.

To sum up:

The bottom line? Bennet has a lot of work to do to introduce himself to the voters of the state. But overall the state's blueward trend makes it appear he is in a strong position for reelection, and the GOP will really have to recruit a top tier challenger to knock him off.

CO: Attorney Gen. Suthers Won't Seek Seat

Colorado Attorney General John Suthers (R) pulled himself out of the race to challenge newly-appointed Sen. Michael Bennet (D) in 2010 by announcing that he will seek reelection to his current position.

Suthers is the sole Republican statewide office holder and was widely thought to be the GOP's top recruit to challenge Bennet, who is (or was) thought to be relatively vulnerable.

Now that Suthers is out of the conversation, the list of potential Republicans to enter the race looks thin. The list includes:

--Former Gov. Bill Owens (who has shied away from running for public office again since his term as governor ended)

--Former US Attorney Troy Eid (who was going to run for Attorney General but is now backing out because of Suthers' decision to run for reelection; he might reconsider a Senate bid)

--Former Rep. Scott McInnis (who is reportedly more interested in a 2010 gubernatorial run rather than a Senate bid)

--Former Rep. Tom Tancredo (who is unpopular, divisive, and alienates Latinos with his borderline reactionary views on immigration and would be the Democrats' dream opponent)

--Former football star John Elway (has never held public office and might be seen as a joke of a candidate)

Yeah, it's slim pickings for NRSC chairman John Cornyn in this race. I think that it's highly unlikely that Owens and McInnis will run, and Tancredo might run but would have a ton of trouble being elected statewide. And John Elway is John Elway.

So if I had to guess, I'd say that Troy Eid will be the Republican nominee. While Eid is qualified and might pose somewhat of a challenge to Bennet, he is certainly not the NRSC's dream candidate and would still likely fall short of victory.

With Suthers gone and the Republican bench looking even weaker, it appears as though Michael Bennet just dodged a political bullet.

Chris Cillizza's Top 10 to Watch in 2010

The Washington Post's Chris Cillizza has compiled a list of the top ten candidates/politicians to watch in 2010. Here are the five that are relevant to the 2010 Senate election and what Cillizza has to say about them:

• Michael Bennet: The common reaction -- even among political junkies -- when Gov. Bill Ritter (D) named Bennet as the next senator for Colorado was, "Who?" Bennet, the head of the Denver school system and the brother of Atlantic editor James Bennet, is an unknown in Washington who is likely to be overshadowed by the other two appointed Democratic senators from Illinois and New York for the first months of the 111th Congress. But, of all the appointed senators, it is Bennet who will almost certainly have the toughest challenge in holding his seat in 2010. The reviews out of Denver say Bennet is a star-in-the-making. He'll have a chance to prove it over the next two years.

• Robin Carnahan: Anyone who knows anything about Missouri politics knows the name "Carnahan." The first family of Missouri Democratic politics has experienced its share of triumph and tragedy (the death of the late Gov. Mel Carnahan and his son in a plane crash, the election of Rep. Russ Carnahan to Congress) over the last decade but 2010 seems to be shaping up as a banner year thanks to the near-certain Senate candidacy of Robin Carnahan. Carnahan currently serves as the secretary of state in Missouri and is seen by political insiders as the most talented politician the family has ever produced. While she was considering a race against Sen. Kit Bond (R) in 2010, his retirement yesterday makes a Carnahan bid almost certain.

• Paul Hodes: The conversion of New Hampshire from a swing state to a Democratic stronghold is nearly complete. In 2006 Democrats defeated both Republican members of the House; two years later Obama won by nine points at the presidential level and Jeanne Shaheen (D) knocked off Sen. John Sununu (R). The last Republican standing is Sen. Judd Gregg and Democrats are gunning for him in the form of Hodes, who, after two terms in Congress, is likely to make the race. Hodes, who is well regarded among Washington campaign sharps, might have to get past fellow Rep. Carol Shea Porter in the primary but if he does he will be an even-money bet to beat Gregg in 2010.

• Mark Kirk: If ever there was a time when Illinois Republicans could reverse their long electoral skid in statewide races, the appointment imbroglio surrounding sort-of-senator Roland Burris is it. And, if ever there was a GOP candidate who can win, it is Kirk, a moderate who has held the Democratic-leaning 10th district despite a serious of tough Democratic challenges. Kirk seems ready to make the leap for the Senate in 2010 although he could face a primary challenge in the form of Rep. Pete Roskam. Much of Kirk's chances depend on how the Burris appointment plays out. If Burris winds up being seated and running again, Kirk can make the case that he carries the taint of Blagojevich and run against the Democratic machine that has controlled Chicago politics forever. If Burris bows out in 2010 and the race is an open seat, Kirk's task is more difficult.

• Marco Rubio: With former Florida Gov. Jeb Bush out of the race for the seat of retiring Sen. Mel Martinez (R), Rubio is almost certainly in. Rubio, who served as speaker of the Florida state House from 2006 to 2008, is a fascinating potential candidate. He was the first Cuban-American to hold the top job in the state legislature and his political base in traditionally Democratic South Florida makes him someone to be reckoned with in a general election. And, for a party desperately in need of leaders who can appeal to the rapidly growing Hispanic vote across the country, Rubio may be just what Republicans at the national level have been dreaming of.

CO-Sen: Bennet to Replace Salazar

Denver Public Schools Superintendent Michael Bennet has reportedly been chosen by Gov. Bill Ritter (D-CO) to be the next Senator from Colorado.

Bennet will replace Ken Salazar, who has been tapped by Barack Obama to be his Secretary of the Interior, and will assume his office as soon as Salazar is confirmed by the Senate.

Bennet beat out a handful of more recognized names that were also being considered for the position, including Denver Mayor John Hickenlooper, Rep. John Salazar (Ken's brother), and Rep. Diana DeGette.

As superintendent of the Denver Public Schools, Bennet's work was regarded highly enough that he was reportedly a finalist to become Obama's Secretary of Education.

On the subject of what his politics are and how he will vote in the Senate, I will cede the floor to Nate Silver of FiveThirtyEight: "If he fits the profile of a typical Colorado Democrat, he'll be liberal on social issues and the environment, but more moderate on fiscal policy (as his business background might imply)."

Salazar's seat was up for reelection anyway in 2010, so if Bennet decides to run to keep that seat, he would be competing for a full six-year term. If he is merely serving as a placeholder until 2010, then we could see a very competitive Democratic primary with no clear favorite.

But Bennet--who is 44 years old--has a bright political future ahead of him, or so it seems. I would be surprised if he didn't run in 2010, but I guess we'll just have to wait and see.

Poll: Colorado Senate Matchups

PPP is out with a poll of a set of hypothetical general election matchups to fill Ken Salazar's vacant seat in the Senate. The four potential candidates included in the poll were Denver Mayor John Hickenlooper (D), Rep. John Salazar (D), former Gov. Bill Owens (R), and outgoing Rep. Tom Tancredo.

John Hickenlooper--54%
Bill Owens--40%

John Salazar--52%
Bill Owens--43%

John Hickenlooper--54%
Tom Tancredo--37%

John Salazar--53%
Tom Tancredo--40%

From these numbers, it looks like John Hickenlooper would more electable than John Salazar against either Republican candidate. Hickenlooper is also the top choice among Coloradoans to be appointed as the state's new Senator. Here are those results from that PPP poll.

John Hickenlooper--23%
John Salazar--15%
Andrew Romanoff--12%
Federico Pena--11%
Diana Degette--8%
Ed Perlmutter--6%
Cary Kennedy--2%

Did these numbers from PPP just make Democratic Governor Bill Ritter's appointment decision a whole lot easier? Stay tuned.

Salazar Will Leave Senate for Cabinet Post

The Denver Post is reporting that Sen. Ken Salazar (D-CO) has accepted the offer to be President-elect Barack Obama's Secretary of the Interior, and will be vacating his seat in the Senate once he is confirmed for the post.

Salazar narrowly defeated Republican Pete Coors in the 2004 Colorado Senate election, so in theory he was vulnerable anyway. However, Salazar was a popular figure statewide, had good approval ratings, and wasn't expected to face serious opposition from across the aisle.

But now that Salazar is out of the way, the 2010 election looks brighter for Republicans, who will probably have a better chance against whoever Democratic Gov. Bill Ritter appoints to the Senate than they would against Salazar. But they would still be fighting an uphill against Salazar's replacement.

Since 2006, Colorado has turned increasingly bluer. In 2006, Bill Ritter took over the governor's mansion, and in 2008, Barack Obama carried the state by eight points and Democrat Tom Udall defeated his Republican opponent by ten points in a formerly Republican-held seat.

The Denver Post also reports:

Names floated as possible successors include Denver Mayor John Hickenlooper; U.S. Reps. John Salazar, Ed Perlmutter and Diana DeGette; Denver Public Schools Superintendent Michael Bennet; outgoing state House Speaker Andrew Romanoff; and former U.S. Attorney Tom Strickland, among others.

This race should be an interesting one to watch.