Pennsylvania: A new Quinnipiac poll shows former Rep. Pat Toomey leading Sen. Arlen Specter 41% to 27% in a Republican primary match-up, with 28% of Republicans undecided. It's no surprise that Specter has already been jolting to the right.
Arkansas: A new poll from Public Policy Polling shows incumbent Sen. Blanche Lincoln (D) leading two potential Republican challengers, former US Attorney Tim Griffin and state Sen. Gilbert Baker. Lincoln leads Griffin 46-38 and leads Baker 48-37. However, these numbers are not all entirely encouraging for Lincoln, as she is under 50% in both contests and she only has a 45-40 approve-disapprove rating.
North Carolina: This is the last poll of this post, I promise. A new Civitas poll has state Attorney General Roy Cooper (D) narrowly leading incumbent Sen. Richard Burr (R), 41% to 38%. But note that 57% of respondents have no opinion of Burr, so take this poll with a grain of salt.
Connecticut: CNBC host Larry Kudlow announced on his show that he will not be running against Sen. Chris Dodd (D) in 2010. Kudlow, who would have run as a Republican, might have been scared off by the fact that a top-tier Republican candidate--former Rep. Rob Simmons--has already jumped in the race. But Kudlow maintains that he never seriously entertained the possibility of running.
California: In what must be a sigh of relief to California Democrats, Gov. Arnold Schwarzenegger (R) announced that he will not run against incumbent Sen. Barbara Boxer (D) in 2010. Said Schwarzenegger: "I am not running for anything, so no one could threaten me, because I'm not running for Senate, I'm not running for Congress, I'm not running for another term as governor." There you have it folks. Looks like the only Republican Boxer has to potentially worry about is former Hewlett-Packard CEO Carly Fiorina, and recent polls have shown that even she wouldn't be a threat.
Showing posts with label NC-Sen. Show all posts
Showing posts with label NC-Sen. Show all posts
Thursday, March 26, 2009
Thursday, March 19, 2009
NC: Burr Still Looks Vulnerable
A new Public Policy Polling survey in North Carolina shows that incumbent Sen. Richard Burr (R) continues to look vulnerable as he gears up for his first re-election challenge in 2010.
The first bit of troubling numbers lie in his approval ratings. Only 35% of respondents approve of his performance while 32% disapprove and 33% have no opinion either way. That means one-third of North Carolina voters don't know enough about him to have any kind of opinion of him after more than four years in office. It's really bad if you have to spread awareness about yourself as an incumbent.
The next bit of troubling numbers come in the hypothetical general election match-ups. When matched up against Secretary of State Elaine Marshall (D), Burr leads 43% to 35%. When matched up against a generic Democratic opponent Burr fares worse, leading 42% to 38%.
Burr has consistently been under the 50% threshold in all of the polls released so far, a tell-tale sign of vulnerability and a chance for the Democrats to flip yet another southern seat. The Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee is trying to get state Attorney Gen. Roy Cooper (D) to run, seeing him as their strongest challenger to Burr.
In an earlier PPP poll Cooper led Burr by 5 points, doing much better against the Senator than any other Democrat. So far Cooper has said that he is still considering jumping in the race, but he will wait a few more months before a final decision.
The first bit of troubling numbers lie in his approval ratings. Only 35% of respondents approve of his performance while 32% disapprove and 33% have no opinion either way. That means one-third of North Carolina voters don't know enough about him to have any kind of opinion of him after more than four years in office. It's really bad if you have to spread awareness about yourself as an incumbent.
The next bit of troubling numbers come in the hypothetical general election match-ups. When matched up against Secretary of State Elaine Marshall (D), Burr leads 43% to 35%. When matched up against a generic Democratic opponent Burr fares worse, leading 42% to 38%.
Burr has consistently been under the 50% threshold in all of the polls released so far, a tell-tale sign of vulnerability and a chance for the Democrats to flip yet another southern seat. The Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee is trying to get state Attorney Gen. Roy Cooper (D) to run, seeing him as their strongest challenger to Burr.
In an earlier PPP poll Cooper led Burr by 5 points, doing much better against the Senator than any other Democrat. So far Cooper has said that he is still considering jumping in the race, but he will wait a few more months before a final decision.
Monday, March 9, 2009
NC: Shuler Won't Run Against Burr
Rep. Heath Shuler (D-NC) has said that he will not run against incumbent Sen. Richard Burr (R-NC) in 2010, according the Associated Press.
Shuler is considered to be a conservative Democrat, and is a member of the Blue Dog coalition in the House. His center-right political leanings would have been appealing in a statewide Senate race, and he has good name recognition across the state and "broad support in his western North Carolina district," which is very conservative.
His choice to stay in the House must be a sigh of relief to the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee because Shuler's district would almost undoubtedly elect a Republican in his absence. He won re-election in 2008 year by a margin of 62% to 36%.
This move appears to free up a run for state Attorney General Roy Cooper (D), and it appears at this point that he would face no serious primary challengers if he jumped in the race. His only other potentially competitive primary opponents were former state Treasurer Richard Moore (who has said he has no interest in the race) and Shuler.
But so far Cooper has stayed mum on the subject--but even if he passes on the race, the Democrats have a deep bench in the state, and they will certainly put up a strong candidate against the vulnerable Burr next year.
Shuler is considered to be a conservative Democrat, and is a member of the Blue Dog coalition in the House. His center-right political leanings would have been appealing in a statewide Senate race, and he has good name recognition across the state and "broad support in his western North Carolina district," which is very conservative.
His choice to stay in the House must be a sigh of relief to the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee because Shuler's district would almost undoubtedly elect a Republican in his absence. He won re-election in 2008 year by a margin of 62% to 36%.
This move appears to free up a run for state Attorney General Roy Cooper (D), and it appears at this point that he would face no serious primary challengers if he jumped in the race. His only other potentially competitive primary opponents were former state Treasurer Richard Moore (who has said he has no interest in the race) and Shuler.
But so far Cooper has stayed mum on the subject--but even if he passes on the race, the Democrats have a deep bench in the state, and they will certainly put up a strong candidate against the vulnerable Burr next year.
Thursday, February 19, 2009
Poll: Burr Leads Two Low-Profile Dems in NC
Public Policy Polling has released their third poll of the 2010 North Carolina Senate race. Each poll pits incumbent Sen. Richard Burr (R) against a different Democratic opponent in a hypothetical general election match-up.
The first two polls pitted Burr against the two high-profile Democrats who are thought to be eying the race. The first poll, from December, found Burr trailing state Attorney General Roy Cooper by 5%. The second poll found Burr leading Rep. Heath Shuler by 11%.
This new poll pitted Burr against two low-profile Democrats--investment banker Jim Neal (who lost the 2008 Democratic Senatorial nomination to Kay Hagan) and former state Sen. Cal Cunningham. Burr leads Neal 44% to 30%, while he leads Cunningham 46% to 27%.
Burr's approval ratings should give Republicans hope of holding the seat, as 41% of respondents approve of his performance while 33% disapprove--which is a net 5% improvement from the previous poll.
Nevertheless, it looks like the DSCC can put this seat in play if they recruit a top tier candidate like Cooper, or to a lesser extent, Shuler. If they are stuck with anyone with a lower profile than Cooper and Shuler, this race will likely slip away from them.
The first two polls pitted Burr against the two high-profile Democrats who are thought to be eying the race. The first poll, from December, found Burr trailing state Attorney General Roy Cooper by 5%. The second poll found Burr leading Rep. Heath Shuler by 11%.
This new poll pitted Burr against two low-profile Democrats--investment banker Jim Neal (who lost the 2008 Democratic Senatorial nomination to Kay Hagan) and former state Sen. Cal Cunningham. Burr leads Neal 44% to 30%, while he leads Cunningham 46% to 27%.
Burr's approval ratings should give Republicans hope of holding the seat, as 41% of respondents approve of his performance while 33% disapprove--which is a net 5% improvement from the previous poll.
Nevertheless, it looks like the DSCC can put this seat in play if they recruit a top tier candidate like Cooper, or to a lesser extent, Shuler. If they are stuck with anyone with a lower profile than Cooper and Shuler, this race will likely slip away from them.
Thursday, January 22, 2009
NC-Sen Poll
Public Policy Polling released a new poll for the 2010 North Carolina Senate race yesterday, pitting incumbent Sen. Richard Burr (R) against Rep. Heath Shuler (D) in a hypothetical match-up. Here are the results:
Burr--39%
Shuler--28%
No Opinion--33%
I showed the "No Opinion" percentage this time because it seemed significant that so many North Carolina voters haven't made up their minds about either of the men.
The poll also pegs Burr's approve-disapprove rating at 33-30 and Shuler's approve-disapprove rating at 21-21. These are weak numbers for both men, but it does show that most people have no opinion either way about either of these men.
Shuler is among three Democrats that are widely mentioned as potential challengers to Burr, with the other two being state Attorney General Roy Cooper and former state Treasurer Richard Moore.
A PPP poll released last month found Burr trailing Cooper 39-34, while a Research 2000 poll found Burr leading Cooper 45-43 and Moore 46-40.
All three of these men could potentially pose a strong challenge to Burr in the general election, and it seems as though the Democrats have a strong bench and many options with which to work with.
Burr--39%
Shuler--28%
No Opinion--33%
I showed the "No Opinion" percentage this time because it seemed significant that so many North Carolina voters haven't made up their minds about either of the men.
The poll also pegs Burr's approve-disapprove rating at 33-30 and Shuler's approve-disapprove rating at 21-21. These are weak numbers for both men, but it does show that most people have no opinion either way about either of these men.
Shuler is among three Democrats that are widely mentioned as potential challengers to Burr, with the other two being state Attorney General Roy Cooper and former state Treasurer Richard Moore.
A PPP poll released last month found Burr trailing Cooper 39-34, while a Research 2000 poll found Burr leading Cooper 45-43 and Moore 46-40.
All three of these men could potentially pose a strong challenge to Burr in the general election, and it seems as though the Democrats have a strong bench and many options with which to work with.
Monday, January 12, 2009
NC-Sen: Poll Shows Burr is Vulnerable
A new Research 2000 poll shows that Sen. Richard Burr (R-NC) would be vulnerable against two potential Democratic challengers: state Attorney General Roy Cooper and former state Treasurer Richard Moore. Here are the numbers:
Burr--45%
Cooper--43%
Burr--46%
Moore--40%
As expected, Burr is going to have a tough reelection fight on his hands if either of these men run against him. This is yet another headache for NRSC Chairman John Cornyn--who already has four GOP retirements on his hands, but probably five with the addition of Sen. Kay Bailey Hutchinson (R-TX), who will likely resign her seat this year to run for governor.
Cooper has long been thought to be the strongest candidate to challenge Burr. Earlier polling even has Cooper leading Burr in a hypothetical match-up. Cooper was handily reelected as Attorney General in November and is a popular figure in the state, as opposed to Burr, whose favorables are 47/46.
But this poll shows that the DSCC has other options if Cooper opts out in the form of Richard Moore, who fared slightly worse in the poll but still kept Burr under 50%, which is a very good sign when pitted against an incumbent this far out from the election.
Any way you look at it, Burr is looks like he's going to be very vulnerable in 2010. All the DSCC has to do now is recruit a top-tier challenger like Cooper (or Moore) to give them a really solid shot of flipping the seat.
Burr--45%
Cooper--43%
Burr--46%
Moore--40%
As expected, Burr is going to have a tough reelection fight on his hands if either of these men run against him. This is yet another headache for NRSC Chairman John Cornyn--who already has four GOP retirements on his hands, but probably five with the addition of Sen. Kay Bailey Hutchinson (R-TX), who will likely resign her seat this year to run for governor.
Cooper has long been thought to be the strongest candidate to challenge Burr. Earlier polling even has Cooper leading Burr in a hypothetical match-up. Cooper was handily reelected as Attorney General in November and is a popular figure in the state, as opposed to Burr, whose favorables are 47/46.
But this poll shows that the DSCC has other options if Cooper opts out in the form of Richard Moore, who fared slightly worse in the poll but still kept Burr under 50%, which is a very good sign when pitted against an incumbent this far out from the election.
Any way you look at it, Burr is looks like he's going to be very vulnerable in 2010. All the DSCC has to do now is recruit a top-tier challenger like Cooper (or Moore) to give them a really solid shot of flipping the seat.
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