House Recruitment Updates: 5/9

CA-47: Republicans are trying to go where they have not (recently) gone before, and targeting Democratic-leaning districts such as Loretta Sanchez's. The NRCC has recruited state Assemblyman Van Tran--who is Vietnamese--to run against Sanchez, in this heavily Vietnamese district. But Tran got off to a bad start, as he kicked off his campaign in the wrong district--CA-46.

OR-04: Following along those lines, the GOP has recruited Springfield Mayor Sid Leiken (R) to challenge Rep. Pete DeFazio (D). At this point, DeFazio does not look vulnerable, but he has not been seriously challenged in a long time (he ran unopposed in 2008). He is also reportedly considering running for governor, so the prospect of a tough challenger may nudge DeFazio in the direction of a gubernatorial run--and an open seat in this D+2 district would be a good pick-up opportunity for the GOP.

MN-06: Many Democrats are ready to pounce to get another go at ultra-conservative Rep. Michele Bachmann (R) in 2010, and two Democrats jumped in the race this week. The first is Elwyn Tinklenberg, the 2008 Democratic candidate who massively benefited financially from a series of inflammatory remarks that Bachmann made. The other Democrat that entered the race this week was Maureen Reed, the 2006 Independence Party candidate for Lieutenant Governor. The DCCC is not prepared to back either candidate, and expressed joy in the entries of both Democrats in the race against Bachmann.

CO-04: Republicans landed a credible challenger against vulnerable freshman Rep. Betsy Markey (D) in the form of state House Minority Leader Cory Gardner. But he will not have the primary field to himself, as University of Colorado Regent Tom Lucero has already entered the race.

ID-01: To the disappointment of the Idaho GOP, state Treasurer Ron Crane has opted out of a run against very vulnerable freshman Rep. Walt Minnick (D). But the GOP has a deep bench in this dark red district, with former Rep. Bill Sali, state Attorney General Lawrence Wasden and state Sen. John McGee as potential candidates.

In Case You Missed It...

Here's some notable 2010 election developments since I last posted in early April. Oh yeah, and I'm covering 2010 House election news too now:

PA-Sen: Six-term Republican Sen. Arlen Specter announced that he will switch parties and run as a Democrat in 2010 after seeing abysmal polling that showed him losing by double digits to former Rep. Pat Toomey in the Republican primary. President Obama, Harry Reid, Bob Casey (Pennsylvania's other Democratic senator), and the rest of the Democratic establishment has lined up behind Specter. Democrat Joe Torsella, who announced his candidacy before Specter's switch, says he will stay in the race and Rep. Joe Sestak is considering jumping in the race. Meanwhile, the Republicans are trying to find someone more electable (i.e., moderate) to run against the ultra-conservative Toomey in the GOP primary. So far, they've come up with two names: Rep. Jim Gerlach and former Gov. Tom Ridge--both of whom would be strong recruits.

KY-Sen: After adamantly proclaiming that he would run for re-election in 2010 (despite the will of Senate Republicans), Sen. Jim Bunning (R) has hinted that he might retire next year. He reportedly encouraged Kentucky Secretary of State Trey Grayson to form an exploratory committee to run for his seat, almost anointing him as his successor. Bunning has been known to do unconventional things in the past, so we'll keep an eye out to see if he actually decides to step down.

NH-01: Republicans landed one of their first major recruits for 2010 in Manchester Mayor Frank Guinta, who will be challenging sophomore Rep. Carol Shea-Porter. He does have an advantage in that Manchester in the state's most populous city and he has remained relatively popular in his tenure as mayor--and he also benefits from the fact that Shea-Porter is one of the most vulnerable House Democrats. But Republicans have underestimated Shea-Porter in 2006 and 2008--both of which were Democratic wave elections--so they hope not to make the same mistake again. This district is the more Republican of New Hampshire's two House seats, yet it gave Barack Obama 53% of the vote in 2008.

DE-AL: Rep. Mike Castle (R), a moderate, will face the strongest challenge he has ever had to face in his sixteen years as Delaware's lone representative from former Lieutenant Governor John Carney. Despite the district's Democratic lean, Castle has always won re-election by wide margins, but this time the 70-year-old will have a harder time. Castle has been considering running for the state's open Senate seat in 2010 or just retiring outright. If he does not run for re-election for whatever reason, this seat will be an easy pick-up in 2010 for the Democrats.

IL-10: Rep. Mark Kirk (R), another moderate, drew his first Democratic challenger--state Sen. Michael Bond. Kirk is considering running for Senate in 2010, and if he does, this seat will be an easy pick-up for the Democrats. But if he chooses to run for re-election, it is now guaranteed that he will face a tough challenger--perhaps a tougher challenge than he has faced in 2006 and 2008.

FL-10: The DCCC is touting State Sen. Charlie Justice as a top recruit against Rep. Bill Young (R), another House Republican who is considering retiring. Young has not faced serious competition in quite some time, and a strong candidate like Justice could nudge him in the direction of retirement. If he did retire, the open seat would be a toss-up and would create another opportunity for the Democrats to pick up a seat.

AR-Sen: Sen. Blanche Lincoln (D), one of the most conservative Democrats in the Senate, has drawn her first Republican challenger in state Senate Minority Leader Kim Hendren. Hendren is in his 70's, and is not expected to give Lincoln a scare, but other Republicans are considering jumping in the race. Lincoln is not incredibly popular back home, and given the right political environment and the right candidate, this race could become competitive.

AK: Palin Won't Challenge Murkowski

Gov. Sarah Palin (R) announced that she will be holding a fundraiser for the re-election campaign of Sen. Lisa Murkowski (R)--ending speculation that she will challenge Murkowski in the GOP primary in 2010.

This essentially clears the path for Murkowski to win re-election and makes it so the Republican party will not have to deal with a media-frenzied, expensive and nasty primary next year.

Palin has not yet announced if she plans on running for re-election in 2010 as she gears up for the 2012 presidential race.

NY: Gillibrand Raises $2.3 Million

In an email to her supporters, Sen. Kirsten Gillibrand (D-NY) announced that she has raised $2.3 million in the two months since she has been appointed.

Gillibrand is proving her mettle as a prodigious fundraiser with this impressive sum. And figures like these may prove to deter other Democrats, such as Reps. Carolyn McCarthy and Carolyn Maloney, from challenging Gillibrand in the primary--and it proves that taking her on won't be cheap.

But as of now, she is still not well-known in the state. According to a new Quinnipiac poll, nearly two-thirds of New Yorkers don't know enough about her to form an opinion of her. So she clearly has some work to do to pick up these lagging name recognition numbers.

The poll also found that Gillibrand narrowly trails McCarthy in a Democratic primary match-up, 33% to 29%, but--much like Gillibrand--68% don't know enough about McCarthy to form an opinion of her.

In a general election match-up, Gillibrand leads Rep. Peter King (R-NY) 40% to 28%.

FL: Mack Won't Run For Senate

Rep. Connie Mack (R-FL) wrote a letter to Florida Gov. Charlie Crist (R) today informing him that he will not be running for the state's open Senate seat in 2010, according to the Associated Press.

Crist is openly considering running for the seat next year instead of seeking re-election as governor, and Mack had been one the top Florida Republicans publicly taking a look at jumping in--but instead, he is throwing his full support behind Crist.

Mack wrote to Crist: "I will be your strongest supporter and champion -- regardless of whether you seek re-election or election to the Senate."

This further fuels the speculation that Crist is indeed planning on running for Senate rather than for another term in Tallahassee. The only Republican who might stand up to Crist in the GOP primary is former state House Speaker Marco Rubio, who formed an exploratory committee earlier this month. But he has said earlier that if Crist jumped in the race, he would probably run for governor.

Whether it is Rubio or somebody else, Crist--if he runs--will almost undoubtedly face some sort of opposition from the right in the Republican primary, as he has been getting a bit chummy with President Obama and the left of late.

Is Chris Dodd the New Jim Bunning?

The results of a new Quinnipiac poll should be sending shivers down the spines of Sen. Chris Dodd (D-CT) and the DSCC. The survey finds Dodd in deep trouble for 2010, with only 33% of voters approving of the job he is doing and 58% disapproving--truly scary sign for a 30-year incumbent, especially one in a blue state like Connecticut.

A whopping 74% blamed Dodd for the AIG bonuses, while 54% don’t believe Dodd is honest and trustworthy. Dodd also only garners the support of half of his own party.

He also shows some poor numbers when matched up against some Republicans in the general election. He trails former Rep. Rob Simmons, the likely Republican nominee, by 16 points, 50-34. He also trails little-known state Sen. Sam Caligiuri 41-37 and former ambassador Tom Foley 43-35.

These terrible numbers can be attributed to the firestorm of criticism regarding his role in the AIG bonuses fiasco, his ties to Countrywide, and his failed 2008 presidential bid that seemed to piss off his constituents in Connecticut.

Because we are still in the midst of the financial crisis and Dodd plays a central role in the process of doling out money to banks and companies like AIG as chairman of the Senate Banking Committee, we can be sure that these numbers aren't likely to improve much in the near future.

Thus, Dodd's position is starting to look more and more like Sen. Jim Bunning's (R-KY). Both are clearly the most endangered incumbents of their respective parties and have extremely high negatives. Both are from states that--given their political leanings--should give them inherent advantages for re-election. And in both cases, another candidate from their party would have a better shot of retaining the seat that they would.

The Republican establishment not-so-secretly tried to get Bunning to retire, and it turned into a nasty back-and-forth between Bunning and the leaders of his own party. Their next thought was to possibly support a primary opponent to Bunning, but the Senator threatened to sue the NRSC for going against their pledge of supporting Republican incumbents, turning into yet another nasty exchange. Finally, NRSC chairman John Cornyn publicly agreed to back Bunning in 2010, but the situation was handled very poorly by Cornyn and Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell and there still appears to be bad blood between them and Bunning.

The Democrats can learn from the mistakes of the way that the GOP handled Bunning when trying to figure out what to do about Dodd. They have already said that they will not try to ask him to step down before 2010. Said one senior Democratic operative: “It’s up to Senator Dodd, there’s no indication that he’s willing to do that. We’re not going to have a Jim Bunning situation our hands."

Another option they might have to get around having Dodd run against someone like Simmons in 2010 is to primary him, presumably with a popular statewide official like state Attorney General Richard Blumenthal, but Democratic insiders seem to think that there is no way Blumenthal would challenge Dodd in a primary.

Some other options for Democratic alternatives to Dodd can be found in the state's congressional delegation. Rep. John Larson would be unlikely to run because of his position in the House leadership, and Rep. Jim Himes has direct ties to the very financial world that has recently come under fire. But Reps. Rosa DeLauro, Chris Murphy and Joe Courtney could all be compelling alternatives.

But the only other option besides asking Dodd to step down and supporting a primary challenger that the DSCC has left--and the one they will most likely take--is to rally around the embattled Senator and hope that this is his point of rock bottom. His numbers have nowhere to go but up...right?

Anyway, I think that there is a good possibility that Dodd and Bunning--now indisputably the two most vulnerable incumbents of the 2010 cycle--will both lose their seats next November, effectively canceling each other's losses out. If that is the case, the Democrats will have to look elsewhere for their 60th seat.

P.S. I'm officially moving this race into the "Toss-Up" category.

Update: When asked if he might seek a new candidate, DSCC chairman Bob Menendez replied, "Are you serious? Chris Dodd is going to be re-elected. He's a great senator."

No Winner Yet in NY-20

After a long, bitterly fought, expensive special election campaign to replace Kirsten Gillibrand in New York's 20th congressional district--we still have no winner.

Democrat Scott Murphy leads Republican Jim Tedisco by 65 votes, 77,344 to 77,279, with 100% of precincts reporting. That lead is merely symbolic at this point, because between 6,000 and 10,000 absentee and military ballots have yet to be counted, and probably won't be counted until at least April 13.

Neither side won or lost big here, but in this case a tie goes to the Democrats. But overall, maintaining the status quo is not good news for the Republicans, especially in a conservative upstate district in NY-20. They invested a lot of money into this race, and they really should have won back a district that should rightfully be theirs.

So neither side really gets to spin this their way--Republicans can't say that this is a sign of the people's rejections of Obama's policies, and Democrats can't say this is validation of their leadership.

This one isn't over and won't be for at least two weeks, but expect updates and analysis of the results of this race to be few and far between until then.

Update: Due to the carelessness of some election officials and some recounting, Scott Murphy's lead has shrunk to 13 votes. The Scorecard reports: "Three counties--Essex, Greene and Delaware--haven't re-canvassed the vote yet, and won't do so until later in the week." That could alter the vote total even more.

Hodes Leads Sununu in NH; Dodd Draws Second Challenger

A new American Research Group poll out of New Hampshire shows Rep. Paul Hodes, the likely Democratic nominee, leading former Sen. John Sununu (R) 42% to 36%.

Further, Hodes leads Sununu 38% to 31% among independents--a tell-tale sign for the rest of the independently-minded (if not libertarian) state.

The Scorecard reports: "Sununu has not yet announced his intentions, but New Hampshire GOP operatives are skeptical he will run after losing his seat to Sen. Jeanne Shaheen last year. These numbers probably won’t encourage him."

Over in Connecticut, Sen. Chris Dodd (D)--arguably the most endangered Democratic incumbent in 2010--drew a second challenger today in the form of state Sen. Sam Caligiuri (R).

Caligiuri, a conservative, will first have to get past former Rep. Rob Simmons, a moderate, in the Republican primary. That will be no easy task, as the GOP establishment seems to be behind Simmons, believing that in a blue state like Connecticut, a moderate Republican will have a better shot at the seat rather than a conservative.

A Recap of NY-20

Tuesday's special election in New York's 20th congressional district--for Sen. Kirsten Gillibrand's (D) old House seat--is all the buzz right now, so I thought I'd spend today recapping everyone on what the outlook is for Team Red and Team Blue going into tomorrow.

The race features Democrat Scott Murphy--a businessman and venture capitalist (i.e., rich guy)--squaring off against Republican Jim Tedisco--the state Assembly Minority Leader.

NY-20 is pretty evenly split between Democrats and Republicans, with the GOP having the slight edge in voter registration. The district has typically leaned slightly to the right, but Barack Obama carried the district 51% to 48% in 2008 and Gillibrand won her reelection bid by an impressive margin--showing that there are a significant number of cross-over Republicans.

But as is the case with all special elections, ground game and getting the base out to vote will be the deciding factors--factors which were originally thought would favor Tedisco.

Last month, Tedisco led by 12% in a Siena poll and was showing no signs of vulnerability. But then as the campaign went on, that all started to change. His biggest mistake was refusing to take a side regarding President Obama's stimulus package--which made him look like he had no backbone and was not willing to make tough decisions. He later came out against it.

Two weeks passed and he significantly dropped in another Siena poll, which showed that he now only led Murphy by 4%. Since then it's been nothing but good press for Murphy and bad press for Tedisco. Obama cut a radio ad for Murphy--getting him some positive media coverage in the district--while the Libertarian candidate was forced out of the race and endorsed Murphy, which was a slap in the face to Tedisco.

The most recent poll from Siena shows Murphy with a 4% lead over Tedisco, just outside the margin of error. Internal polls from both sides yielded similar results and show the race to be a complete toss-up.

So Tedisco's relatively strong advantage at the outset of this campaign has essentially evaporated leading up to election day, so much so that he revamped his entire campaign two weeks ago. And from the recent polling, it appears that undecided voters are breaking for Murphy.

But be wary with all of this poll analysis because it is notoriously difficult to poll accurately for special elections, mainly because of the unpredictable turnout.

Either way this thing turns out--and it really could go either way--the victorious party is going to spin the hell out of it. If Tedisco wins, the GOP will tout it as a rejection of Obama's policies, and how a district represented by a Democrat flipped to a Republican because the people no longer support him and his "big spending." If Murphy wins, the Democrats will trumpet it as support for Obama's presidency thus far.

But in reality, the Republican have much more to lose than the Democrats from this election.

The Republicans were expected to win this race, and it would be a terrible sign for a party who is already in the midst of a civil war and an identity crisis to suffer this big of a moral (and financial) defeat. Republicans would call for RNC chairman Michael Steele's head, and start pointing fingers at each other--further igniting the civil war within the party. Conservatives would blame Tedisco for being too moderate, and the bickering and scapegoating would self-perpetuate.

If Murphy loses, the Democrats lose a House seat--which they can afford to lose with their large majority--and they waste some money and let the Republican base cheer for a day. But since their party is currently stable and united around Obama, they won't go into panic mode, but will just use this race as a lesson for the 2010 midterms.

KY: A Democratic Proxy War's A-Brewin'

It appears that Kentucky Democrats are already taking sides in what is likely to be a hotly contested primary to take on the highly vulnerable Sen. Jim Bunning (R) next year.

In a rather unsurprising move, Gov. Steve Beshear (D) endorsed his lieutenant governor, Dan Mongiardo, for his 2010 Senate campaign--despite the fact that Mongiardo will likely face prominent opposition for the Democratic nomination.

Politico reports that state Attorney General Jack Conway (D) is set to announce his candidacy in the coming weeks. Conway has recently talked with two other Democrats who have been considering jumping in the race--state Auditor Crit Luallen and Rep. Ben Chandler--and it appears that they will stay out of the race and line up behind him.

Thus, a proxy fight emerges between Beshear-Mongiardo and Conway-Luallen-Chandler. The uglier this fight gets, the better it is for Bunning, who will need all the help he can get to win what will be the toughest re-election challenge of his life.

MO: Carnahan Leading in GOP Internal Poll

A new Republican internal poll commissioned by Wilson Research Strategies out of Missouri shows Secretary of State Robin Carnahan (D) leading both of her potential Republican opponents--Rep. Roy Blunt and former state Treasurer Sarah Steelman--for the state's open Senate seat in 2010. The poll was commissioned as Republican internal poll.

Carnahan leads Blunt 47% to 44%, and she leads Steelman 47% to 39%. The survey has a 4% margin of error. The poll also found that Blunt has very high negatives among Democrats and Independents, presumably from his partisan past as a House Republican leader.

On the Democratic side, Carnahan will likely not face any trouble in the primary, and with the announcement of her candidacy she immediately became the probable Democratic nominee.

On the Republican side, things won't be that simple. Blunt has already announced his candidacy and Steelman has shown signs that she will jump in as well, setting up a fierce and probably nasty GOP primary that could drive up the negatives and drain the cash of the eventual nominee.

The Republican establishment is lining up behind Blunt, while Steelman would run as an Washington outsider and a reformer. The two have already had nasty exchanges (Steelman called Blunt "another white guy in a suit") even though Steelman has not officially entered the contest.

The bloodier the fight is for the Republican nomination, the better the chances are that Robin Carnahan will be headed off to Washington in 2011.

CT: Dodd Edges Out Simmons in Poll

A new Research 2000 poll finds that Sen. Chris Dodd (D) is vulnerable in his 2010 re-election race, but his outlook is not as bleak as the recent negative headlines and controversies surrounding the Senator would indicate.

His favorable-unfavorable numbers clock in at 47-40, which is not great, but that fact that he is still in the black in the midst of all the this controversy is good news for Dodd.

When matched up against former Rep. Rob Simmons (R) (who has already announced his candidacy and started taking shots at Dodd), Dodd edges him out 45% to 40%. Simmons' favorable-unfavorable clocks in at 41-18.

When matched up against the even lesser known state Sen. Sam Caligiuri (R), Dodd trounces him 51% to 30%.

Is this great news for the Dodd camp? Absolutely not. Being under 50% as a well-entrenched and long-standing incumbent is never good news.

But with the recent intense outlash against Dodd--who has the displeasure of being the chairman of the Senate Banking Committee in a time of bank failure--Team Dodd will take any kind of lead over someone like Simmons, who led Dodd in a poll earlier this month.

Thursday Catch-Up

Pennsylvania: A new Quinnipiac poll shows former Rep. Pat Toomey leading Sen. Arlen Specter 41% to 27% in a Republican primary match-up, with 28% of Republicans undecided. It's no surprise that Specter has already been jolting to the right.

Arkansas: A new poll from Public Policy Polling shows incumbent Sen. Blanche Lincoln (D) leading two potential Republican challengers, former US Attorney Tim Griffin and state Sen. Gilbert Baker. Lincoln leads Griffin 46-38 and leads Baker 48-37. However, these numbers are not all entirely encouraging for Lincoln, as she is under 50% in both contests and she only has a 45-40 approve-disapprove rating.

North Carolina: This is the last poll of this post, I promise. A new Civitas poll has state Attorney General Roy Cooper (D) narrowly leading incumbent Sen. Richard Burr (R), 41% to 38%. But note that 57% of respondents have no opinion of Burr, so take this poll with a grain of salt.

Connecticut: CNBC host Larry Kudlow announced on his show that he will not be running against Sen. Chris Dodd (D) in 2010. Kudlow, who would have run as a Republican, might have been scared off by the fact that a top-tier Republican candidate--former Rep. Rob Simmons--has already jumped in the race. But Kudlow maintains that he never seriously entertained the possibility of running.

California: In what must be a sigh of relief to California Democrats, Gov. Arnold Schwarzenegger (R) announced that he will not run against incumbent Sen. Barbara Boxer (D) in 2010. Said Schwarzenegger: "I am not running for anything, so no one could threaten me, because I'm not running for Senate, I'm not running for Congress, I'm not running for another term as governor." There you have it folks. Looks like the only Republican Boxer has to potentially worry about is former Hewlett-Packard CEO Carly Fiorina, and recent polls have shown that even she wouldn't be a threat.

NC: Burr Still Looks Vulnerable

A new Public Policy Polling survey in North Carolina shows that incumbent Sen. Richard Burr (R) continues to look vulnerable as he gears up for his first re-election challenge in 2010.

The first bit of troubling numbers lie in his approval ratings. Only 35% of respondents approve of his performance while 32% disapprove and 33% have no opinion either way. That means one-third of North Carolina voters don't know enough about him to have any kind of opinion of him after more than four years in office. It's really bad if you have to spread awareness about yourself as an incumbent.

The next bit of troubling numbers come in the hypothetical general election match-ups. When matched up against Secretary of State Elaine Marshall (D), Burr leads 43% to 35%. When matched up against a generic Democratic opponent Burr fares worse, leading 42% to 38%.

Burr has consistently been under the 50% threshold in all of the polls released so far, a tell-tale sign of vulnerability and a chance for the Democrats to flip yet another southern seat. The Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee is trying to get state Attorney Gen. Roy Cooper (D) to run, seeing him as their strongest challenger to Burr.

In an earlier PPP poll Cooper led Burr by 5 points, doing much better against the Senator than any other Democrat. So far Cooper has said that he is still considering jumping in the race, but he will wait a few more months before a final decision.

OH: Poll Shows Candidates With Low Name ID

A new Quinnipiac poll out of Ohio shows that most voters are unfamiliar with the major contenders for the state's open Senate seat.

In a Republican primary, former Rep. Rob Portman leads state Auditor Mary Taylor 31% to 14%, with 52% undecided. Portman has already announced his candidacy, has the establishment support, and is widely expected to be the GOP nominee. Taylor has not made her intentions clear yet, but has not ruled out a run.

In a Democratic primary, Lt. Gov. Lee Fisher leads Secretary of State Jennifer Brunner 18% to 14%, with 46% undecided. Both Fisher and Brunner have already formally announced their candidacies, setting up a competitive primary with lots of undecided voters left to win over.

Here are the head-to-head numbers:

Fisher--41%
Portman--33%

Fisher--41%
Taylor--31%

Brunner--39%
Portman--34%

Brunner--38%
Taylor--31%

It looks like either Democrat starts off with the slight advantage over either Republican, but it is still very very early and the name identification is low for all four of the aforementioned candidates.

67% of Ohioans don't know who Portman is, while over half of voters are not familiar with Fisher or Brunner. Clearly these candidates have a lot of room to work with to improve their numbers.

So until name identification shoots up for these three, we can basically ignore the majority of results of polls for this race.

Monday Recap

Connecticut: Former Rep. Rob Simmons (R), emboldened by a recent poll that showed him running evenly with Sen. Chris Dodd (D), announced that he will be challenging the longtime incumbent in 2010. Simmons was undoubtedly the NRSC's top recruit to run against Dodd, and Simmons' entry in the race is a huge get for them. Dodd will now be one of the NRSC's top targets to take down in 2010. In other Connecticut Senate news, Sen. Joe Lieberman (I) announced that he will back Dodd in 2010 even thought Dodd supported Ned Lamont--Lieberman's Democratic rival--in 2006.

New Hampshire: Rep. Carol Shea-Porter (D) announced that she will not run for New Hampshire's open Senate seat in 2010. Shea-Porter was reportedly taking a serious look at the race and her candidacy was attracting much speculation. But now that she's out of the picture, it looks like Rep. Paul Hodes (D)--who has already announced his candidacy--is the likely Democratic nominee for the seat. No Republican candidates have emerged yet, but it appears as though the GOP's bench is pretty thin.

Louisiana: Sen. David Vitter (R)--who is plagued by his involvement in the 2007 DC Madam prostitution scandal--caught a big break this weekend when Family Research Council President Tony Perkins (R) announced that he would not challenge Vitter in the 2010 GOP primary and that he will be supporting the Senator. Perkins would have have been a formidable opponent with both his strong conservative bona fides and strong institutional support. He is the second Republican to back down from a primary challenge to Vitter in recent weeks as former Rep. John Cooksey withdrew his name from consideration earlier this month. Now only one big-name Republican--Secretary of State Jay Dardenne--is still considering challenging Vitter in the GOP primary.

California: A new Rasmussen poll shows Sen. Barbara Boxer (D) leading two Republicans--Gov. Arnold Schwarzenegger and former Hewlett Packard CEO Carly Fiorina--by comfortable margins. Boxer leads Schwarzenegger 50-34 and she leads Fiorina 47-38. This poll confirms the results of a Field poll released last week which showed Boxer leading these two Republicans by similar margins.

Tuesday Rundown

Connecticut: A new Quinnipiac poll shows Sen. Chris Dodd (D) in some serious trouble in his 2010 bid for re-election. Dodd trails former Rep. Rob Simmons (R) 43% to 42% in a hypothetical match-up, while he fares better against other Republicans such as CNBC host Larry Kudlow and state Sen. Sam Caligiuri. Simmons appears to be leaning towards running against Dodd next year, spelling out trouble for the Senator. The only good news for Dodd in this poll is that his approval-disapproval rating jumped to 49-40 from a 41-48 rating in February.

Delaware: A new PPP poll has more bad news for Democrats as it shows that statewide Rep. Mike Castle (R) would lead state Attorney General Beau Biden (D) 44% to 36% in a hypothetical match-up for the open Senate seat once held by Beau's father, Joe. Neither candidate has announced their plans for 2010. So if Castle (who is moderate) ran, he could have a real shot of flipping the seat, but he is 71 years old and we have not yet heard whether or not he is seriously mulling a run, despite pleas from John Cornyn. If Castle passes on the race, we can be sure that the Democrats will hold on to this seat--as the GOP has a weak bench in Delaware outside of Castle.

Pennsylvania: Sen. Arlen Specter (R) caught a big break today when conservative activist Peg Luksik (R) told the Johnstown Tribune-Democrat that she is planning on running against him in 2010. Now, this may seem like bad news for Specter on the surface as Luksik has had varying amounts of success in previous runs for statewide office. But given the fact that former Rep. Pat Toomey (R)--a fellow conservative--has all but declared his candidacy, Specter has a better chance of sneaking through the Republican primary with a plurality of moderate Republicans while Toomey and Luksik split the conservative vote. In Specter's mind, the more votes Luksik draws away from Toomey, the better.

NC: Shuler Won't Run Against Burr

Rep. Heath Shuler (D-NC) has said that he will not run against incumbent Sen. Richard Burr (R-NC) in 2010, according the Associated Press.

Shuler is considered to be a conservative Democrat, and is a member of the Blue Dog coalition in the House. His center-right political leanings would have been appealing in a statewide Senate race, and he has good name recognition across the state and "broad support in his western North Carolina district," which is very conservative.

His choice to stay in the House must be a sigh of relief to the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee because Shuler's district would almost undoubtedly elect a Republican in his absence. He won re-election in 2008 year by a margin of 62% to 36%.

This move appears to free up a run for state Attorney General Roy Cooper (D), and it appears at this point that he would face no serious primary challengers if he jumped in the race. His only other potentially competitive primary opponents were former state Treasurer Richard Moore (who has said he has no interest in the race) and Shuler.

But so far Cooper has stayed mum on the subject--but even if he passes on the race, the Democrats have a deep bench in the state, and they will certainly put up a strong candidate against the vulnerable Burr next year.

PA: Will Specter Switch Parties?

The Hill has an interesting article on Sen. Arlen Specter's (R-PA) options for what will most likely be the political challenge of his life in his 2010 re-election bid.

Specter will face former Rep. Pat Toomey (R) in the Republican primary, a "conservative firebrand" that came within 7,000 votes of taking down Specter in the 2004 GOP primary and one that will likely prove an even bigger threat to Specter this time around. But last time, Specter had the support of President Bush, then-Sen. Rick Santorum (R-PA), and most of the Republican establishment. This time, the RNC is threatening to hold funds from him and the state Republicans' dissatisfaction with him has grown exponentially in recent years. This time, it looks like he is alone.

Specter has always drawn much of his support from independents, moderate Republicans and many of the state's Democrats--three groups that have fueled his re-election victories for decades. But many (hundreds of thousands) of the state's Independents and moderate Republicans have registered with the Democratic Party since the 2008 election, which hurts Specter in the closed Republican primary, in which only registered Republicans can vote. So the Republican electorate is much more conservative than it was in 2004. His buddies in the middle can't help him out in the primary.

So then, the prospect of Specter switching parties comes up. Pennsylvania law prohibits him from pulling a Lieberman--which is having the option of falling back and running as an independent should he lose in the primary.

But one option that he does have, according to this article, is to switch his party affiliation before the election and run either as an Independent or Democrat. He would probably have a better shot of beating Toomey--who is viewed as too right-wing for a bluish purple state like Pennsylvania--if he ran as an Independent or Democrat (if he did that he would still have to win the Democratic nomination which is no easy feat).

But in a three-way race with Toomey as the GOP candidate, Specter as an Independent, and a Democrat running, the whole thing would become incredibly unpredictable.

I mean, it's a long shot. But it's still something that we can speculate about, because there is a chance that Specter is at least considering this right now. Stay tuned.

CA: Poll Shows That Boxer is Safe

A new Field Poll out of California shows that Sen. Barbara Boxer (D) is safe for her 2010 reelection bid, no matter who were Republican challenger is.

The poll tested her against Gov. Arnold Schwarzenegger (R) and businesswoman Carly Fiorina (R), as well as a hypothetical Republican primary including Schwarzenegger, Fiorina and Assemblyman Chuck DeVore and one primary match-up with just Fiorina and DeVore. Here are the numbers:

Boxer--54%
Schwarzenegger--30%

Boxer--55%
Fiorina--25%

Schwarzenegger--31%
Fiorina--24%
DeVore--9%

Fiorina--31%
DeVore--19%

Schwarzenegger has not shown any interest in the race and is considered unlikely to run, and Fiorina is undergoing treatment for breast cancer--making her entry in the race very unlikely.

But even if by some miracle one of those two Republicans jumps in the race, this poll confirms that Boxer would cruise to reelection anyway. DeVore--who has already officially announced his candidacy--won't be a threat at all to Boxer if he gets the nomination.

So barring any major gaffes or scandals in the next year and a half, it looks like Boxer will easily win a fourth term in the Senate.

PA: Toomey Will Run Against Specter

Both conservatives and Democrats have something to celebrate tonight in Pennsylvania: former Rep. Pat Toomey (R-PA) will run against Sen. Arlen Specter in the 2010 Republican primary, the Allentown Morning Call reports.

"Pat's formal announcement will be forthcoming," said a GOP official close to Toomey.

So first let's tackle why conservatives are happy about this development. Arlen Specter has always been seen as a moderate-to-liberal Republican and a RINO (Republican In Name Only) since he was first elected to the Senate. He provided President Obama and Harry Reid the deciding cloture vote on the stimulus package, and has voted with Democrats on many occasions. In short: conservative despise him.

Pat Toomey, who now heads the conservative Club For Growth, is revered by the conservative wing of the Republican Party. Toomey narrowly lost to Specter in the 2004 Republican primary, but Specter had the full support of then-Sen. Rick Santorum (R) and then-President Bush back then. This time around, Specter doesn't have too many buddies left to back him up--in fact, RNC chairman Michael Steele threatened to withhold funds from his reelection campaign because of his support of the stimulus.

Toomey, as head of the Club For Growth--which is solely devoted to helping get conservative candidates elected--has a broad political network and a national support base that will make him flush with campaign cash, just ready and rearing to go after the Senator.

Specter was also in trouble before this whole Toomey thing started. A poll released last week showed that 53% of all Pennsylvanians--and 66% of Republicans--want someone to replace Specter. If you're starting off with two-thirds of your own party against you, you're in some deep...stuff.

Now, let's get into why Democrats are cheering about Toomey's candidacy. Toomey will undoubtedly pose a very strong challenge to Specter in the primary, which will at the very least draw Specter to the right--making him less enticing to those independent voters who have been crucial in keeping him in office all these years, and an overall weaker general election candidate.

Their best case scenario is facing off against Toomey in the general election. Let's be honest here, Toomey is (probably) way too conservative for a bluish purple state like Pennsylvania. He would thus be much easier to defeat in the general election than a deeply entrenched incumbent with significant support from across the aisle. Also, whoever comes out with the GOP nomination will have severely depleted campaign funds and higher disapproval ratings, as is customary with competitive primary fights.

Also, other top-tier Democrats who are actively taking a look at the race--namely Rep. Patrick Murphy, Rep. Allyson Schwartz and Auditor General Jack Wagner--might be more encouraged to run for the seat now that they know Specter will have to deal with a challenge from the right before he tries to re-sell himself in the general election.

The only thing that we can say for sure is that Specter's voting record in the Senate will take a sharp turn to the right over next year or so in order to make him seem more appealing to Republicans back home--yet another thing that conservatives can cheer about as a result of Toomey's candidacy.

LA: Poll Shows Vitter Could Be in Trouble

Sen. David Vitter (R-LA) could face a tough reelection battle in the Republican primary as well as the general election in 2010, a new Research 2000 poll shows.

The poll included hypothetical primary and general election match-ups with one Republican (Secretary of State Jay Dardenne) and two Democrats (Rep. Charlie Melancon and former Rep. Don Cazayoux). Here are the numbers:

Vitter--43%
Dardenne--32%

Vitter--48%
Melancon--41%

Vitter--48%
Cazayoux--39%

Dardenne--49%
Melancon--40%

Dardenne--50%
Cazayoux--38%

Notice that Vitter is below 50% in all of his match-ups (even in his own party's primary), which is a tell-tale sign of vulnerability for any incumbent. Vitter's favorability ratings are also mediocre, with 49% viewing him favorably and 42% viewing him unfavorably.

Vitter holds a similar single-digit lead over both Democrats tested in the poll, but neither one is likely to run in 2010. Melancon disavowed any interest in running, while Cazayoux has not even been in the conversation for the most part. But given how similar their numbers are, we can assume that their share of the vote is for the generic Democratic candidate--whomever that may be. So if the Democrats can get their act together and nominate a credible candidate, they have a chance at taking Vitter down.

Meanwhile, Dardenne fares well against Vitter in the GOP primary, but still trails him by nine points, showing that Vitter still has a significant following with the conservative wing of the state's Republican Party. After all, Dardenne is seen as moderate compared to the right-wing Vitter.

But one other ultra-conservative Republican name that has been floating around as possible candidate, Family Research Council President Tony Perkins, was not tested in the poll--so we don't really know how much of the conservative vote he would siphon off from Vitter.

Oh yeah, I almost forgot: porn star Stormy Daniels received 1% of the vote in the Republican primary. Finally some good news for you, Dave!

Thursday Afternoon Tidbits

Florida: Former Florida House Speaker Marco Rubio (R) "has formed an exploratory committee to prepare running for the Senate, becoming the first credible Republican candidate to formally prepare for a campaign to succeed retiring Sen. Mel Martinez," the Scorecard reports. Of course, Rubio and other top Republicans considering running for the open seat--such as Reps. Connie Mack and Vern Buchanan--will wait until popular Gov. Charlie Crist (R) announces if he is running for the seat before making an official move of their own. Crist has said that he will not make his decision until May, but if he does jump into the Senate race, expect the primary field to clear for him--and expect Rubio, along with other top Florida Republicans, to run for governor.

Illinois: The Hill reports that former Commerce Secretary William Daley (D) is strongly leaning towards running for Sen. Roland Burris' (D) seat in 2010. Daley's brother is the mayor of Chicago, so he would instantly have establishment support--but he would also bear the burden of the Chicago machine. If he enters the race, he will face off against state Treasurer Alexi Giannoulias (D) and possibly Burris himself in the Democratic primary, so while he would start off as a front-runner, he would by no means be shoo-in to win the nomination. Rep. Jan Schakowsky (D) has also not yet ruled out a run, but she was more keen on the idea of running in a special election, which is looking less and less likely.

New York-B: Rep. Steve Israel is yet another downstate Democrat that is considering challenging Sen. Kirsten Gillibrand in a Democratic primary, according to the New York Times. Israel joins Rep. Carolyn Maloney, Rep. Carolyn McCarthy and Manhattan Borough President Scott Stringer, who are all openly considering bids for 2010.

Wednesday Night Updates

Nevada: Former Rep. Jon Porter (R) has reportedly taken a new, high-paying job at a lobbying firm. Porter has often been mentioned as a potential challenger to Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid (D) in 2010, but this new gig may be a sign that Porter wants out of elected office for good (tip: Senate Guru)

Utah: State Attorney General Mark Shurtleff (R) appears to be laying the foundation for a primary challenge to incumbent Sen. Bob Bennett (R) next year. He met with fundraisers today in D.C. to discuss his fundraising capabilities--he has not formally announced his candidacy but will make a final decision soon. All of the buzz surrounding this race is in the GOP primary, as whoever goes on to win the nomination will undoubtedly go on to win the general election--this is Utah after all.

Florida: Bill Clinton will hold a second fundraiser for Rep. Kendrick Meek (D), who is running for the open Senate seat in Florida. He will be squaring off against state Sen. Dan Gelber and North Miami Mayor Kevin Burns in the Democratic primary. We are still waiting to hear from Tampa Mayor Pam Iorio and Rep. Ron Klein on their plans for 2010--I missed this last week, but Klein said that he plans on running for reelection to his current seat at this point, but is leaving his options open for a Senate bid.

California/Wisconsin: Sen. Barbara Boxer (D-CA) and Sen. Russ Feingold's (D-WI) approval ratings took nose dives this month in SurveyUSA's monthly 50-state tracking poll. Boxer looks like she's safe for her 2010 reelection bid unless Gov. Arnold Schwarzenegger (R) or businesswoman Carly Fiorina (R) run against her, but their entries seem unlikely at this point (Schwarzenegger has shown no interest in the race, while Fiorina just underwent surgery for breast cancer). In Wisconsin, Feingold seems more vulnerable, and the Republican name that is floated around the most to challenge Feingold--up-and-comer Rep. Paul Ryan--might just be encouraged enough by these numbers to jump in the race.

Recruitment Updates: Pennsylvania and Louisiana

In Pennsylvania, Republican businessman Glen Meakem announced that he will not run against incumbent Sen. Arlen Specter (R-PA) in 2010.

In his statement, Meakem made it clear that he does not agree with or support Specter, and that he is "confident the people of Pennsylvania will replace him in 2010." It looks like Meakem is deferring to former Rep. Pat Toomey (R-PA), who has shown renewed interest in challenging Specter in the GOP primary. Meakem is widely seen as the next strongest Republican challenger after Toomey.

In other news, Specter got his first official primary challenger yesterday in the form of Larry Murphy (R). Murphy challenged Specter in 1998, and received a solid 18% of the vote--not a bad starting block. Murphy will almost undoubtedly be overshadowed by a more high-profile Republican challenger like Toomey, but he might be able to siphon off enough conservative votes from Toomey to let Specter slide by with a win.

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Over in Louisiana, Rep. Charlie Melancon--the only Democratic member of Louisiana's House delegation--says that he probably won't run for Senate next year against Sen. David Vitter (R-LA), who was involved in the 2007 D.C. Madam prostitution scandal.

“Never say never,” Melancon said, “but I’m not contemplating a run at this time.” Melancon was thought to be the DSCC's top choice to challenge Vitter.

The Democrats keep saying that they're going to bring the fight hard to Vitter because of his scandalous past, but they have yet to unite around one candidate, let alone a strong one.

Lt. Gov. Mitch Landrieu's name is often brought up, but it is unlikely that Louisianans will send two Landrieus to represent them in the Senate (his sister Mary is the state's other Senator), and he has thus far shown no interest in running.

The other two oft-mentioned Democrats are businessmen Jim Bernhard and former Rep. Chris John--who ran against Vitter in 2004. But Bernhard is untested politically and John would not be as formidable of a candidate as he once was and has been out of the world of politics for six years--not to mention he has shown no interest in a rematch.

I've always been of the opinion that despite Vitter's past, he is a relatively safe incumbent--as long as he gets past the GOP primary. Louisiana is one of the few states that has been turning redder while the rest of the country turns bluer, and the Democrats have a weak bench.

This race is staying in the "Likely GOP" category barring any further developments. After all, this is Louisiana we're talking about.

Electile Dysfunction Can Now Project...

...that Cook County Commissioner Mike Quigley will go on to win the Democratic primary in the special election for Illinois' 5th Congressional District. I thought it would be state Rep. Sara Feigenholtz. Oh well.

Here are the numbers with 82% of the precincts reporting:

Quigley--23%
Fritchey--18%
Feigenholtz--16%
O'Connor--13%
Forys--10%

And it looks like Quigley will face off against Republican Rosanna Pulido in the special general election on April 7. Quigley will be heavily favored to win.

Here are the results from the Republican primary:

Pulido--25%
Hanson--20%
Anderson--20%
Bedell--16%

Matt Reichel will be the Green Party's nominee. Click here for minute-to-minute precinct results.

UPDATE (10:15): WBBM Radio reports that Fritchey and Feigenholtz have called Quigley to concede.

UPDATE (11:19): The AP has called the race for Quigley.

IL-05 Primary is Today

I'm going to take a brief hiatus from my usual coverage of the 2010 Senate races for the special primary election taking placing today for the House seat vacated by now-Chief of Staff Rahm Emanuel in Illinois' 5th congressional district (I will do the same for the special elections in NY-20 and CA-32).

IL-05 is heavily Democratic, and whoever comes out as the Democratic nominee will likely win in the general election, which is taking place on April 7.

There are twelve Democrats vying for their party's nomination (the Chicago Tribune has a good rundown on all of them), while there are nearly two-dozen candidates running overall--combined from the Democratic, Republican, and Green Parties.

Polls close at 8 PM Eastern Time, and I'll report back here with the results later tonight.

For the record, my money is on state Rep. Sara Feigenholtz for the Democratic nomination (whom I'm sure you've all heard of...right?).

She has the backing of EMILY's List, the SEIU, and Rahm Emanuel's front lawn; she's the only major female candidate, which should help her out with women voters; she's the only Jewish candidate, which should help because there are a lot of Jews in the district; she's very liberal, which suits the district well; and she probably has the highest name recognition of all the candidates, as she has represented the area for a while.

But what do I know? Anything can happen when you have eleven candidates and low turnout.

Poll Watch: Pennsylvania and New York

In Pennsylvania, a new Susquehanna poll shows that Sen. Arlen Specter (R-PA) could be in some serious trouble in his 2010 reelection bid--particularly in the Republican primary.

Specter is widely viewed as a moderate Republican, which would seem to fit the bill of Pennsylvania well. But many of the moderate Republican voters that have supported him in previous bids have either moved out of the state or have switched registration to the Democratic Party.

And that's significant because in Pennsylvania the primaries are closed (meaning that only registered members of the party can vote in their own primary) so Democrats and Independents can't vote in the Republican primary.

This poll shows that 53% of all Pennsylvanians--and 66% of Republicans--want someone to replace Specter after 2010, spelling trouble for him in the primary against a (much) more conservative candidate like former Rep. Pat Toomey--who almost defeated Specter in the 2004 Republican primary and just re-declared his interest in next year's race.

If Specter survives the primary, he is in good position to win in the general election, as 49% of Democrats said that they would back Specter. However, if a conservative like Toomey wins the GOP nomination, the Democratic nominee would have a much better shot of consolidating the Democratic race and taking the seat.

So in short, liberal Democrats should be cheering at the prospect of a Toomey candidacy, as long as they get a top-tier candidate of their own.

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In New York, a new Marist poll shows a statistical dead heat between incumbent Sen. Kirsten Gillibrand (D-NY) and Rep. Carolyn McCarthy, who has said that she would challenge Gillibrand in the 2010 primary over the issue of gun control.

The poll shows Gillibrand leading McCarthy 36% to 33%, which is in the margin of error. 50% of New Yorkers have no opinion either way of Gillibrand, while 18% say she is doing an excellent/good job and 32% say she is doing a fair/poor job.

Gillibrand has been positioning herself farther to the left on issues like gun control since she joined the Senate, in part to avoid a primary battle with someone like McCarthy.

In a general election match-up, Gillibrand trounces Rep. Peter King (R) by a margin of 49-28--as she has done in three previous polls against him. King would clearly be a weak general election candidate, even against someone as unknown/unpopular as Gillibrand.

It looks like the NRSC's only hope of picking up the seat in the 2010 special election lies with former Gov. George Pataki (R), although his entry in the race is seen as unlikely. In the poll, Gillibrand leads Pataki 45% to 41%.

LA: Cooksey Rules Out Run

A few days after he said he was considering running against Sen. David Vitter (R-LA) in the 2010 Republican primary, former Rep. John Cooksey (R) announced that he will not be challenging Vitter.

“While I do not always agree with David Vitter's position on social issues, I believe David Vitter does a good job representing the people of Louisiana on fiscal matters,” Cooksey said. “If David Vitter emerges as the Republican nominee in the 2010 Senate race in Louisiana, I will vote for him."

But Vitter's not off the hook for a primary challenger yet--Family Research Council President Tony Perkins told Politico that he was considering running against him. If Perkins did run, he would likely emphasize the issue of family values and social conservatism--and he would not let the public forget about Vitter's involvement in the 2007 D.C. Madam prostitution scandal.

IL: Schakowsky Would Run in a Special Election

The Hill reports that Rep. Jan Schakowsky (D-IL) would jump in the Illinois Senate race for embattled Sen. Roland Burris' (D-IL) seat if there is a special election for the seat before 2010.

Schakowsky told The Hill that if the race is held on its scheduled date in November 2010, she will make decision in the next two months.

If she ran for the Senate seat in the November election, she would have to give up her House seat, which she may not think is worth the risk. However, if a special election is held before that time, she has nothing to lose.

If she did join the race--which is expected to draw many candidates on both sides--she would square off against state Treasurer Alexi Giannoulias (who officially announced that he would run for Burris' seat regardless of the date) and possibly Burris himself, who has not yet announced whether he will run for the seat outright in 2010, but just set up a campaign website.

On the Republican side, the two names that are attracting the most buzz--Reps. Mark Kirk and Peter Roskam--may be faced with the same dilemma as Schakowsky, as they may not want to run for the Senate seat if it means giving up their House seats.

My guess is that Burris won't resign and that there will be no special election--and that he'll run in the regularly scheduled 2010 election. So if that's the case, we'll see what Schakowsky, Kirk and Roskam decide to do.

PA: Toomey Reconsidering Run Against Specter

GrassrootsPA and the Allentown Morning Call are reporting that former Rep. Pat Toomey is reconsidering challenging incumbent Sen. Arlen Specter (R-PA) in the 2010 Republican primary.

In January, Toomey--who now heads the conservative Club For Growth--announced that he would not challenge Specter and was instead more focused on a 2010 gubernatorial bid. But Specter's support of President Obama's stimulus package puts a possible primary challenge "back on the table" for Toomey.

Both RNC chair Michael Steele and the chairman of the state Republican Party have threatened to support a conservative alternative to Specter in the GOP primary, and Toomey would fit that bill perfectly.

Businessman Glen Meakem and anti-abortion rights activist Peg Luksik are among other Republicans to Specter's right that are eying a challenge to Specter.

UPDATE: Toomey just released this statement: "As this disastrous recession worsens, I have become increasingly concerned about the future of our state and national economy. Unfortunately, the recent extraordinary response of the federal government – more corporate bailouts, unprecedented spending and debt, higher taxes – is likely to make things worse. I think we are on a dangerously wrong path."

He added: "Pennsylvanians want a US Senator focused on real and sustainable job creation that gets our economy growing again. That is why I am considering becoming a candidate for the US Senate."

Toomey's serious and eager. Watch out Arlen.

Mrs. Sebelius Goes to Washington

Kansas Gov. Kathleen Sebelius (D) has reportedly accepted President Obama's offer to become his Secretary of Health and Human Services. This was not unexpected, as The New York Times reported ten days ago that she was the all-but-certain nominee.

Nevertheless, this is a big blow to the Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee--as they hoped that Sebelius would run for her state's open Senate seat in 2010. She was the Democrats' only hope of winning the seat (a Research 2000 poll even showed her leading the two Republican candidates--Reps. Jerry Moran and Todd Tiahrt--by double-digits), and now it is safe to say that the seat will stay in the GOP's hands.

Now, the August 3 primary between Moran and Tiahrt--which is expected to be highly competitive--will be "the de facto general election," as Taniel of Campaign Diaries puts it. I will have more on that primary battle in the months to come.

IL: Giannoulias Announces Run

Illinois Treasurer Alexi Giannoulias plans to announce on Monday that he will seek the Democratic nomination for the Senate seat currently held by Sen. Roland Burris (D-IL).

Giannoulias, a wealthy 32-year old son of Greek immigrants, is said to be the favorite of the Democratic establishment--particularly Senate Minority Whip Dick Durbin (D-IL)--mainly because of his impressive fundraising abilities. Giannoulias is also personally close with Durbin and President Obama, which can only help him.

They Democratic leader might also like the fact that he poured $3 million of his own money in his 2006 bid for treasurer. They can only expect that he would pour in a lot more for a Senate run.

However, as is customary with nearly every Illinois politician, Giannoulias has baggage. The Hill points out that he has ties to Rod Blagojevich, Tony Rezko, and the Mafia. Yikes.

Republicans also may point to the Illinois's $9 billion budget deficit if Giannoulias is the nominee--as he is running hard on the fiscal responsibility angle.

The young treasurer is likely to face opposition in the Democratic primary. Burris has not made it clear if he plans to run for the seat outright in 2010, and Rep. Jan Schakowsky has refused to rule out a run and would be a formidable candidate. Former Commerce Secretary William Daley has also expressed interest in running for the nomination, and would receive the support of the Chicago political machine because his brother just happens to be mayor of Chicago.

I would keep an eye on those three over the next few months, and see if Giannoulias scares any of them away.

Friday Updates

Illinois: The Chicago Sun-Times reports that Commerce Secretary William Daley (D)--who is also the brother of Chicago Mayor Richard Daley--is considering running for Sen. Roland Burris' (D-IL) Senate seat--regardless of whether the embattled Senator runs again for the seat. If Daley jumps in the race, he will likely face off against state Treasurer Alexi Giannoulias, who has not yet announced his candidacy but is rumored to be Senate Minority Whip Dick Durbin's top pick for the post.

Louisiana: Bayou Buzz reports that former Rep. John Cooksey is considering challenging Sen. David Vitter (R-LA)--who is plagued by his involvement in the DC Madam scandal last year. We not have three Republicans--Secretary of State Jay Dardenne, Family Research Council President Tony Perking and Cooksey--eying a primary challenge to Vitter.

Kentucky: Angry over the way Republican leaders have been treating him these past few months, Sen. Jim Bunning (R-KY) is reportedly considering resigning from the Senate to let Kentucky's Democratic governor, Steve Beshear, appoint a replacement--thus giving the Democrats their 60th seat in the Senate (assuming Al Franken prevails in Minnesota). Now, I think that this is an empty threat from Bunning that came out of frustration, in order to get treated better by the Senate Republican leadership. But if he does go through with it--and Bunning is crazy enough to do it--we can expect Gov. Beshear to appoint his Democratic lieutenant governor, Dan Mongiardo, to the seat. Mongiardo has already announced that he will run for the seat in 2010, so it seems like a natural pick.

UPDATE: Bunning denied the report in a statement. "It's not true. I intend to fulfill my obligation to the people of Kentucky. If you are going to write something like this, you better make your sources known, because they are lying," Bunning said. But one of his staffers didn't deny that he said it.

Oh, Jim, between calling your minority leader "deaf," predicting Ruth Bader Ginsburg's death, and now this, I think it's safe to say that it's going to be a hoot watching you these next two years.

UT: Bennett is Safe

A new Research 2000 poll confirms that Sen. Robert Bennett (R-UT) is firmly entrenched is his ruby red state of Utah, and will have an easy time being reelected in 2010.

The poll tested Bennett against Rep. Jim Matheson (D-UT), legendary Jeopardy contestant Ken Jennings (D), Attorney David Leavitt (R), and state Attorney Gen. Mark Shurtleff (R). Here are the numbers:

Bennett--55%
Matheson--32%

Bennett--57%
Jennings--21%

Bennett--44%
Leavitt--23%

Bennett--46%
Shurtleff--20%

Bottom line? Bennett has nothing to worry about.

Oh, and Research 2000: you had to put Ken Jennings in there? Seriously? How about some mayors or former mayors of Salt Lake City next time?

TX: Poll Shows GOP Has Early Edge For Hutchinson's Seat

A new PPP poll tested several possible match-ups for Sen. Kay Bailey Hutchinson's (R-TX) Senate seat, which she is expected to resign from for a 2010 gubernatorial bid (thus sparking a special election).

The poll tested two Democrats--Houston Mayor Bill White and former state Comptroller John Sharp--against three Republicans--Lt. Gov. David Dewhurst, state Attorney Gen. Greg Abbott and state Sen. Florence Shapiro. Here are the numbers:

White--37%
Dewhurst--42%

White--36%
Abbott--42%

White--36%
Shapiro--37%

Sharp--36%
Dewhurst--42%

Sharp--36%
Abbott--44%

Sharp--37%
Shapiro--34%

This poll is, overall, good news for Republicans as they would start out with the upper-hand in the special election. But it also shows that this deep south seat is not out of reach for the Democrats.

The Democrats have two relatively strong candidates in White and Sharp, (who both announced that they will run) who have a shot of making this race competitive. They both start out on equal footing--posting similar numbers against the Republicans, having similar approval ratings and relatively low name recognition--leaving room to grow.

The GOP's two top candidates appear to be Dewhurst and Abbott, but neither of them have expressed any interest thus far. But keep in mind that it is Texas, home of George W. Bush, Tom DeLay and the Alamo--you can be sure that the GOP will put a top-tier candidate to face either White or Sharp.

Tuesday Recap

Illinois: Yesterday, Roland Burris met with Senate Majority Whip Dick Durbin to discuss his future. Durbin suggested that Burris resign, but the Chicago Sun-Times' Lynn Sweet reported that Burris strongly suggested that he would not resign due to the current controversies that surround him, but he also suggested that he would not run for the seat outright in 2010. Then, a Burris spokesman said that Burris had made no decisions about 2010. The saga continues...

Kentucky: NRSC chair John Cornyn said that the last week's meeting with state Senate President David Williams (R) was just a courtesy visit, and that he is not recruiting anyone to challenge the unpopular and vulnerable Sen. Jim Bunning (R) in a primary. He also added:“As long as he is running, I will be supportive of him.” Bunning rejected this olive branch: “I don’t believe anything John Cornyn says. I’ve had miscommunications with John Cornyn from, I guess, the first week of this current session of the Senate.” He then added this firecracker: “If they recruited someone to run in a primary against me, I would sue them because they are not following their bylaws.” So it looks like Bunning's going to be the GOP Senate nominee in Kentucky. The DSCC can start celebrating now.

Pennsylvania: RNC Chairman Michael Steele threatened to withhold RNC funds from Sen. Arlen Specter (R) and is open to supporting more conservative primary challengers over Specter for his 2010 reelection bid--mainly because of his vote on the stimulus package. Then the chair of the Pennsylvania Republican Party suggested that the state party might not support Specter in a contested primary. He is gonna face one hell of a primary challenge from the right yet again this election cycle.

KY: NRSC Setting Up Primary Challenge for Bunning?

KYPolitics reports:

A political bombshell this weekend from several well-placed GOP sources, in Frankfort and Washington: State senate President David Williams met with officials at the National Republican Senatorial Committee (NRSC) on Friday to discuss his interest in running for the U.S. Senate seat currently held by Jim Bunning. Williams, in town for the National Governor's Association winter meeting, impressed GOP officials, who called his interest "serious."

It's no secret that NRSC chair John Cornyn and Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell don't want Bunning to run for reelection, but it is almost unheard of for a campaign committee to actively support another candidate over the incumbent in a primary.

Bunning is unpopular, but not so unpopular within his own party that he would automatically lose to someone like Williams in the GOP primary.

As the folks over at Swing State Project point out, Williams supported a tax increase on alcohol and tobacco, "something that wouldn't go over well with the GOP rank-and-file." Bunning, meanwhile, has pretty good conservative bona fides and might be hard to take down in the primary, much to the dismay of Senate Republicans.

Quinn Calls On Burris to Resign

Politico reports:

CHICAGO -- Illinois Gov. Pat Quinn said Friday that Roland Burris should resign from the United States Senate and the vacancy should then be filled by a special election.

Quinn joins a chorus of state legislators and two Democratic House members in calling on Burris to resign, saying his Jan. 8 answers before a state legislative committee defied the public's trust about the appointment.

"At this time, we have a senator who has a cloud over his head," Quinn said.

Burris has so far remained defiant, saying he's done nothing wrong and said he'd fully cooperate with state and federal probes about the circumstances of his appointment by ousted former Gov. Rod Blagojevich.

The special election would take place within 115 days after Burris leaves office--assuming he does leave.

UPDATE: Burris's Chief of Staff resigned today, following the resignation of his spokesman yesterday. Clearly Burris' days are numbered in the Senate.

WA: Poll Shows Murray in Good Shape

A new Research 2000 poll shows Sen. Patty Murray (D-WA) crushing two top potential Republican candidates--Rep. Dave Reichert and state Attorney Gen. Rob McKenna--in hypothetical general election match-ups. Here are the numbers:

Murray--53%
Reichert--40%

Murray--55%
McKenna--39%

The Scorecard reports: "Neither Republican is expected to run: Reichert isn’t likely to abandon his House seat for a tough challenge against Murray, while McKenna is eying a gubernatorial race in 2012."

Murray also holds strong favorable ratings, with 55% of respondents viewing her favorable while 40% view her unfavorably.

NY-B: Pataki For Senate?

The Associated Press reports that Sen. John Cornyn, the chair of the National Republican Senatorial Committee, approached former New York Gov. George Pataki (R) this Tuesday about running for the Senate in 2010.

If he were to enter the race, Pataki would be challenging Democrat Kirsten Gillibrand, who was recently appointed to succeed Hillary Clinton in the Senate.

It is clear that Cornyn prefers the possibility of a Pataki candidacy over the candidacy of Rep. Peter King (R-NY), who has been trailing Gillibrand by double-digits in recent polling.

A Marist poll released that month found Gillibrand and Pataki in a statistical dead heat, with Gillibrand leading Pataki 44-42.

However, a 2010 Senate bid is seen as unlikely according to officials close to Pataki:

Former Rep. Thomas Reynolds, a close Pataki friend, told Gannett News Service that he spoke to Pataki for about 20 minutes Wednesday and the topic never came up.

"George Pataki as a mayor, as an assemblyman, as a senator and as a three-term governor, should he ever choose to re-enter public life, that's the most formidable Republican candidate we would have in the state," Reynolds said.

But Reynolds said Pataki, 63, of Garrison is enjoying the private sector as an attorney and spending time with his family, and "I just don't know that George Pataki wants to pursue a senatorial race."

Even if Pataki does run, there is no need for Democrats to panic. He left office in 2006 with a mediocre-to-low favorability rating, and might not have enough pull in New York anymore to defeat Gillibrand next year, given how blue the state has become.

Poll: Burr Leads Two Low-Profile Dems in NC

Public Policy Polling has released their third poll of the 2010 North Carolina Senate race. Each poll pits incumbent Sen. Richard Burr (R) against a different Democratic opponent in a hypothetical general election match-up.

The first two polls pitted Burr against the two high-profile Democrats who are thought to be eying the race. The first poll, from December, found Burr trailing state Attorney General Roy Cooper by 5%. The second poll found Burr leading Rep. Heath Shuler by 11%.

This new poll pitted Burr against two low-profile Democrats--investment banker Jim Neal (who lost the 2008 Democratic Senatorial nomination to Kay Hagan) and former state Sen. Cal Cunningham. Burr leads Neal 44% to 30%, while he leads Cunningham 46% to 27%.

Burr's approval ratings should give Republicans hope of holding the seat, as 41% of respondents approve of his performance while 33% disapprove--which is a net 5% improvement from the previous poll.

Nevertheless, it looks like the DSCC can put this seat in play if they recruit a top tier candidate like Cooper, or to a lesser extent, Shuler. If they are stuck with anyone with a lower profile than Cooper and Shuler, this race will likely slip away from them.

MO: Blunt Announces Candidacy

As expected, Rep. Roy Blunt (R-MO)announced today that he will be running for Missouri's open Senate seat in 2010.

Blunt was until recently the House minority whip and is from one of Missouri's most prominent political families. He has the support of the GOP establishment in Missouri and Washington and will start out as the front-runner for the Republican nomination.

He faces the prospect of a tough primary challenge from former state Treasurer Sarah Steelman, who has long been critical of the Republican establishment and ran a reform-minded campaign for governor in 2008, losing in the primary. If she jumped in the race, things could easily turn ugly as she would paint herself as the "outsider" while depicting Blunt as the "ultra-partisan-Washington-loving-insider."

The primary will end in mid-August of 2010, so if it is bruising, as expected, the nominee will only have less than three months to recover in time for the general election.

Whoever comes out on top in the primary will likely face Missouri's Democratic Secretary of State Robin Carnahan--also a member of a prominent Missouri political family--in the general election, who announced her candidacy at the end of January. She is expected to face little competition in the Democratic primary.

Early head-to-head polls show that Blunt does better than Steelman when matched up against Carnahan, but that could be attributed to Blunt's superior name recognition.

We should know for sure whether Steelman will jump in the race this weekend, as she is expected to make an announcement at the annual Missouri Lincoln Day event in Kansas City this weekend. Stay tuned.

UPDATE: In an interview with Politico, Steelman said that she is "in the process of laying the groundwork that I need to get done before making an official announcement," and that she is "definitely strongly leaning towards doing this."

NYT: Obama Set to Pick Sebelius for HHS

The New York Times is reporting that President Obama will appoint Kansas Gov. Kathleen Sebelius (D) as his Secretary of Health and Human Services.

The Times reports that the only reason that the announcement has not been made official is that the administration wants to conduct as thorough a vetting process as possible to avoid another Tom Daschle-esque cabinet controversy.

Of course, if Sebelius is appointed, that would effectively eliminate the possibility that she would run for her state's open Senate seat in 2010. Early polling showed that she would have a double-digit lead over Rep. Jerry Moran and Rep. Todd Tiahrt--the two leading Republican candidates for the seat.

Sebelius was considered to be the only Democrat who could have any chance of putting the seat in the play for them. So if she joins Obama's cabinet, this race will be permanently fall in the "Safe GOP" category, and whoever comes out of the Republican primary--whether it be Moran or Tiahrt--will be the next U.S. Senator from the state of Kansas.

OH: Two Top Democrats to Face Off in Primary

On Tuesday, two of Ohio's top Democrats--Lt. Gov. Lee Fisher and Secretary of State Jennifer Brunner--announced that they would be running for the state's open Senate seat in 2010, setting up a contentious primary.

Another Democrat attracting a lot of Senate buzz, Rep. Tim Ryan, announced soon after that he would not run for the seat and that he would be endorsing Fisher. Ohio Gov. Ted Strickland (D) has already said that he would back Fisher over Brunner in the Democratic primary, giving Fisher instantaneous establishment and financial support.

As far as electability is concerned, polls like this and this show that both candidates match up equally against Rob Portman, the likely Republican nominee.

Now that two heavyweight Democrats have announced their candidacies, I think it is reasonably safe to say that none of the other members of the Ohio congressional delegation (Reps. Zack Space, Betty Sutton, Marcy Kaptur, etc.) will enter the race.

Competitive primaries always have the potential to leave the party's nominee bruised, so there is just reason for Democrats to have concern.

However, Taniel of Campaign Diaries makes the case that this kind of primary could potentially be a good thing for the Democrats, citing that the primary is in May--so there is plenty of time to recover in time for the general election--and it allows them to stay in the media spotlight while Portman will fall out of the public eye. He also compares this race to the primary battle between Barack Obama and Hillary Clinton, and how it strengthened Obama's campaign in the long run. It's worth a read if you're interested.

Poll: Dorgan Strong Against Hoeven in North Dakota

A new Research 2000 poll finds Sen. Byron Dorgan (D-ND) holding up very well against in a hypothetical 2010 match-up against popular Republican Gov. John Hoeven.

Dorgan crushes Hoeven by 22 points, 57% to 35%, even though both men enjoy similarly strong approval ratings across nearly every demographic.

Hoeven is the only Republican who could even have a remote shot of taking down Dorgan, but he is widely thought to be very unlikely to run. Looking at numbers like these might further convince him to stay out of the race.

DE: O'Donnell Will Run

Christine O'Donnell, the 2008 Republican nominee for Senate who lost to then-Sen. Joe Biden (as he concurrently ran for re-election to the Senate while he was on the Presidential ticket) by a margin of 65-35, has announced that she will run for the Senate again in 2010.

She will be running in the special election for Joe Biden's Senate seat, which is currently held by placeholder Ted Kaufman. State Attorney General Beau Biden--the Vice President's son--is expected to run on the Democratic side, and will face little to no opposition in the primary.

O'Donnell's entrance in the race decreases the likelihood that Rep. Mike Castle (R-DE)--the NRSC's top recruit to run for the seat--will jump in the race, as he will not likely want to tussle with someone like O'Donnell in the GOP primary.

O'Donnell is seen as a much weaker candidate than Castle, and if she is the Republican nominee facing off against Beau Biden, the Democrats should hold the seat with ease.

Gregg Withdraws Nomination, Announces He Won't Run for Reelection

In a stunning unexpected move, Sen. Judd Gregg (R-NH) withdrew his nomination to become President Obama's Commerce Secretary, citing "irresolvable conflicts" over the economic stimulus package and the 2010 census.

The move clearly caught the White House by surprise, and they issued this harsh statement while Obama was making a campaign-esque stop selling his stimulus package to the public:

Senator Gregg reached out to the President and offered his name for Secretary of Commerce. He was very clear throughout the interviewing process that despite past disagreements about policies, he would support, embrace, and move forward with the President’s agenda. Once it became clear after his nomination that Senator Gregg was not going to be supporting some of President Obama’s key economic priorities, it became necessary for Senator Gregg and the Obama administration to part ways. We regret that he has had a change of heart.

In a conference call later that night, Gregg indicated that he will not run for reelection to the Senate in 2010.

So all things considered, this whole fiasco didn't really have any major effects regarding 2010. This seat will still be open in 2010, Rep. Paul Hodes will still run for the seat on the Democratic side and still has the backing of the party establishment, and New Hampshire's other representative, Carol Shea-Porter (D) might still make a go for it, but it is still unlikely.

Republicans still need to start their recruitment process in New Hampshire, which wouldn't have been any different had Gregg gone on to become Commerce Secretary--so they still need a candidate like former Sen. John Sununu or former Rep. Charlie Bass to make this race competitive.

The person that is perhaps most effected by Gregg's decision in Bonnie Newman, who was set to replace Gregg as a placeholder until 2010, and now won't get to be a Senator.

FL: Fate of Seat Lies With Crist

A new Strategic Vision poll confirms that Gov. Charlie Crist (R-FL) is only candidate in either party who could move this race into the safe column--and that if he wants the seat, it is his for the taking. If he decides to run for another term as governor, this race will sink into complete chaos, as none of the other potential candidates have any kind of statewide name recognition.

Republican Primary with Crist: If Crist runs, he would get 54% of the Republican vote, while his close competitor--Rep. Connie Mack--would get 16%.

Republican Primary without Crist: If Crist stays out, Mack leads the pack with 21%, followed by Rep. Vern Buchanan (11%), former state House Speaker Allen Bense (8%), and another former state House Speaker Marco Rubio (5%). The most important number here is that 55% of Republicans say they are undecided.

Democratic Primary: The four candidates tested--Rep. Ron Klein, Tampa Mayor Pam Iorio, Rep. Kendrick Meek, and state Sen. Dan Gelber--all have very low name recognition, and 66% of respondents say they are undecided. That said, Klein gets 12%, Meek gets 10%, Iorio gets 8%, and Gelber gets 4%.

General Election: The poll also tested 20 general election match-ups, which followed a similiar pattern. Here is a table from Campaign Diaries that makes things clearer. The Republican's number comes first.

	Crist	Mack	Buchanan	Bense	Rubio
Klein	58-24	32-27	24-28	22-27	18-29
Iorio	57-29	32-30	26-30	24-30	19-32
Meek	60-26	35-25	29-23	28-21	26-24
Gelber	58-27	33-27	23-20	27-25	17-22

Here's what Campaign Diaries gathered from these results:

• Not only does Charlie Crist have huge leads (between 28% and 34%), he is also hovering around 58% - a high number that makes it hard to see how Democrats could defeat him. (That does not mean that Democrats should dread the prospect of his candidacy. For Crist to run for Senate would create a highly competitive gubernatorial election, and that would have huge consequences for redistricting and for next decade’s House races.)

• Connie Mack looks to be a highly competitive competitor, as he beats all four Democrats - though one of the match-ups leaves him within the margin of error.

• Both Pam Iorio and Ron Klein have relatively good numbers, as they edge out three of the five Republicans - including Rep. Vern Buchanan. Pam Iorio’s numbers are particularly encouraging, since she is the only Democrat to hold Mack within the margin of error and to hold Crist under… 30%.

• Marco Rubio, Allen Bense and Dan Gelber: All are state legislators, and in a state as large as Florida it is not realistic to expect them to be known by a wide public - and it’s very hard to make much of their results.

• Kendrick Meek is the only contender to lose every single one of his match-ups, and that is a particularly dreadful result given that two of his opponents are state legislators. Compared to fellow Rep. Ron Klein, for instance, Meek underperforms by 12% against Bense and 13% against Rubio! That he even loses against Marco Rubio should be particularly worrisome to Meek.