Chambliss Wins Runoff

With 93% of precincts reporting, Republican Sen. Saxby Chambliss (left) leads Democratic challenger Jim Martin 58 to 42%. AP, CNN, and most of the other major news organizations have called the race for Chambliss.

African Americans did not come out in as large numbers as they did in November, and Chambliss's message seemed to have resonated with many Georgians.

This is certainly a disappointing night for Democrats, whose dreams of a 60-seat supermajority in the Senate were dashed tonight by Chambliss's victory.

But this election can be a learning lesson for Democrats for future election years. As Nate Silver of FiveThirtyEight.com said, "I think the Democrats need to think carefully about what went wrong here as they begin to gear up for 2010."

The current count of the new Senate is 58 to 41 in the Democrats favor (including Joe Lieberman and Bernie Sanders on the Democratic side).

The only race that has yet to be decided is the one in Minnesota, where the recount is still going on. The the Canvassing Board will have to look over at least 6,000 challenged ballots, one-by-one, before we know the winner. And that probably won't be until late December at the earliest.

For those of you out there who still crave more elections, the last two races of this year will be on Saturday, as LA-02 and LA-04 hold their postponed elections. I will delve into those races later in the week.

Georgia Senate Runoff Prediction

The polls in Georgia close in a few hours, and I thought I'd give my last minute prediction--my last one until 2010--right about now. So for old time's sake, here we go.

Right now the polls have Chambliss up by about 5 points over Martin going into election day, but it is nearly impossible to run an accurate poll in a runoff election because it is very hard to predict turnout (which is supposed to be way down from November 4). But here's my prediction anyway:

Saxby Chambliss* (R)--53%
Jim Martin (D)--47%

Let's put it this way. On the day before the runoff election, Chambliss had Sarah Palin campaigning for him and Martin had the rapper Ludacris. That fact alone should speak volumes about what the outcome of this race will likely be.

Overall, the national GOP has put a lot more effort into this race, contributing money and sending Republican stars like John McCain, Mitt Romney, Mike Huckabee, Rudy Giuliani, Newt Gingrich, and of course, Sarah Palin to stump for Chambliss.

On the Democratic side, only Bill Clinton, Al Gore and Donna Brazile have made appearances for Martin.

And to be fair, the Republicans have been making a much stronger argument to Georgia voters in their attempt to "stop rampant liberalism" by preventing the Democrats from attaining that 60-seat filibuster-proof majority in the Senate.

There has been some anecdotal evidence that Martin does have a better ground game and get-out-the-vote effort than Chambliss, which is probably because hundreds of volunteers and paid campaign workers from the Obama campaign swooped down to Georgia to work for Martin right after the November 4 election.

But the bad news for Martin is the group that saved him from losing outright to Chambliss on the first election day--African Americans--have dropped off, according to polling data of early voters. 35% of early voters were African Americans in the first election because of the excitement with Obama, but now that number has dropped to 23%. That's going to be a big problem for Martin.

Martin's campaign is saying that unlike the Obama campaign's emphasis on early voting, they did not do a gigantic early and absentee voting push, instead opting for a big December 2 turnout. They had better hope so, or they really don't have a prayer.

I think that between Chambliss's argument that he's the firewall between the Democrats and their 60-seat majority, the GOP star power in Georgia, and the drop in African American turnout, Chambliss will win the seat comfortably by six points over Martin.

Since Chambliss did finish 3 points ahead of Martin on November 4, he is still the favorite, but is by no means a shoe-in. It is true that anything can happen in the runoff, and they notoriously hard to predict. But it does seem as though there is a strong motivation among Georgia Republicans to come back and win this one.

Runoffs are usually a battle of the bases, and to me, it looks like their base is more enthusiastic and will come out in larger numbers to keep their guy, Saxby Chambliss, in the Senate.

Georgia Senate Runoff Update

It's coming down to the wire for Republican Sen. Saxby Chambliss and Democrat Jim Martin as they prepare for their runoff election on Tuesday.

John McCain, Mitt Romney, Mike Huckabee, and Rudy Giuliani, and Zell Miller have already come down and campaigned for Chambliss, and Sarah Palin will make several stops for him on Monday. Their message is simple--electing Chambliss might be the last chance at stopping the Democrats from having that 60-seat filibuster-proof majority and thus complete control in Washington.

Bill Clinton, Al Gore and Donna Brazile have campaigned for Martin, but he has yet to get a visit from the greatest marquee name in the party--President-elect Barack Obama. And that visit is unlikely to come, seeing as if he campaigns for Martin and he loses, he will have appeared to already have lost some of his political capital. However, he did cut a radio for Martin, and Martin is still riding the Obama wave, mentioning his name as much as he can in ads and speeches.

Chambliss defeated Martin by three points on Nov. 4, but was two-tenths of a percentage point shy of winning outright. In that race, Libertarian candidate Allen Buckley received about 3% of the vote, and who his supporters line up behind could decide the outcome of the runoff.

The polls so far show that Chambliss has a lead of about five points over Martin, but runoff elections are notoriously hard to poll because the turnout is generally much lower than on Election Day, and is thus hard to predict.

The winner of Tuesday's election will really be determined by which party turns out its base more, and as of right now it appears that Chambliss has the edge over Martin.

Ted Stevens Concedes

Republican Sen. Ted Stevens of Alaska conceded to Democrat Mark Begich earlier today, and has announced that he will not seek a recount.

With nearly all the votes counted, Begich leads by 3,724 votes, or 1.2%, over Stevens. Thus ends Stevens's forty-year long reign in the Senate.

It also dashes Sarah Palin's hope of becoming a Senator before 2012.

Now, the Democrats have officially picked up seven seats, and Sen. Joe Lieberman of Connecticut will remain in the Democratic caucus, giving them 58 seats (including Independent Sen. Bernie Sanders of Vermont).

In Minnesota, all of the ballots have been counted and Republican Sen. Norm Coleman leads Democrat Al Franken by 215 votes. However, an automatic manual recount (that's by hand) of all 2.9 million votes started today and thousands of contested ballots will be fought over one by one in the coming weeks. The recount will be overseen by a five-man board consisting of Minnesota secretary of state Mark Richie (a Democrat) and four state judges. It is being reported that it could take up to a month.

In Georgia, both sides are gearing up for the December 2 runoff election between Republican Sen. Saxby Chambliss and Democrat Jim Martin. John McCain and other marquee Republican names have been or will be down there campaigning for Chambliss, while Bill Clinton will hold a rally with Martin in Atlanta. It should be close, but I'd give the edge to Chambliss.

If the Democrats pull off a miracle and win both of these seats, then they will have their 60-seat filibuster-proof majority. But it is still highly unlikely.

Big Names Called Down for Georgia Senate Runoff

Since Republican Sen. Saxby Chambliss (left) failed to get the 50% needed to claim victory against Democrat Jim Martin, his campaign is calling in all the big Republican guns to help. John McCain, Sarah Palin, Mitt Romney, Rudy Giuliani, and Newt Gingrich are expected to go down to the Peach State and stump for Chambliss in a desperate attempt to keep as many Senate seats out of Democratic hands as humanly possible.

High-profile Democrats have not been enthusiastic about getting down to Georgia and campaigning for their guy. Martin has been in contact with Barack Obama, trying to get him to come down and stump for him, but he is in a bit of a bind.

He would love an extra seat in the Senate, but the last thing he wants right now is to fail one of his first tests and appear like he has no sway as president-elect.

There is an eerie similarity between this situation and the situation that Bill Clinton was in when he was first elected president. The Democrats had taken control of the the White House and Congress and there was a run-off election happening in Georgia. The Republican candidate framed his candidacy as a last stand against Democratic filibuster-proof majority in the Senate. Clinton and Gore ended up campaigning on behalf of the Democratic candidate, but he lost and Republicans said it was a signal of Clinton's already weakening political standing.

So, I think it's best that Obama plays it safe and sits this one out. It is far too risky for and he has more to lose than to gain. And it is unlikely that the Democrats will reach that 60-seat majority anyway. Of course it would be nice to have another Democrat in the Senate, but at what cost? And it's not like he doesn't have enough to do--he's got his hands full and then some. And I just think for those reasons, he will not campaign for Martin.

However, Martin might be able to get one of the Clintons to help him out. Bill Clinton won the state in 1992 and might still have some sway in the state as a fellow southerner.

Still, by all measures, it looks like Chambliss is still the favorite to hold his seat.