Rundown of the 2010 Senate Races, Part I (Updated)

The following is a rundown of the 37 Senate seats that are up for election in 2010 as well as my rating (Safe, Likely, Lean, or Toss-Up) for each one of them.

Given, a lot can and will change between now and 2010: the mood of the country, the success of things such as the stimulus package, and whether or not top-tier candidates jump into these races. And we will not know all of that for a quite a while, so take these descriptions with a grain of salt.

The races are listed in alphabetical order by state. All Republicans are in red and all Democrats are in blue. The potential challengers/candidates names in bold are the ones that are attracting the most speculation at this time; the ones in italics are unlikely to run.

First, we'll start with the Republican-held seats.

Alabama (Richard Shelby)--SAFE GOP
Dick Shelby is a deeply entrenched incumbent with huge campaign war chest. Barring some scandal or major gaffe, Shelby is safely on his way to a fifth term.
Potential Challengers: Rep. Bobby Bright, 2004 Senatorial Candidate Wayne Sowell
Announced Challengers: None

Alaska (Lisa Murkowski)--SAFE GOP
Most of the excitement in this race, if there is any, will come from the Republican primary. If Sarah Palin challenges Murkowski in the primary in order to catch the spotlight leading up to a 2012 presidential run, Murkowski could be in trouble. The only Democrat who could make this race remotely competitive is former Gov. Tony Knowles, but even he would have a hard time unseating Murkowski, who defeated him six years ago.
Potential Challengers: Gov. Sarah Palin, Former Gov. Tony Knowles, Former State Rep. Ethan Berkowitz, State Sen. Hollis French
Announced Challengers: None

Arizona (John McCain)--SAFE GOP
McCain's only real threat was Gov. Janet Napolitano, but she will now be Secretary of Homeland Security. Most of the remaining viable Democrats are going to focus on the governor's race.
Potential Challengers: Former Rep. J.D. Hayworth, Rep. Gabrielle Giffords, Phoenix Mayor Phil Gordon, Attorney Gen. Terry Goddard
Announced Challengers: None

Florida (Open)--TOSS-UP unless Charlie Crist (R) runs
Republican Sen. Mel Martinez announced that he would not seek a second term, resulting in an open seat opportunity for the Democrats. On the Democratic side, Rep. Kendrick Meek, state Sen. Dan Gelber and North Miami Mayor Kevin Burns have already entered the race, and we're still waiting on Tampa Mayor Pam Iorio and Rep. Ron Klein to announce their plans for 2010 (Klein has said that he is running for reelection, but is leaving the door open for a Senate run). The National Republican Senatorial Committee (NRSC) is trying to recruit popular Gov. Charlie Crist to run for the seat instead of running for reelection, but he said he would not make a decision until spring. Polls have shown that he would crush any Democrat in the general election. Other potential Republican candidates--like Rep. Connie Mack, Rep. Vern Buchanan and former state House Speaker Marco Rubio--are probably waiting on Crist to announce his intentions for 2010 before making decisions of their own.
Potential Candidates: Gov. Charlie Crist, Former State House Speaker Marco Rubio, Rep. Vern Buchanan, Former State House Speaker Allan Bense, Tampa Mayor Pam Iorio, Rep. Ron Klein
Announced Candidates: Former Sen. Bob Smith, Rep. Kendrick Meek, State Sen. Dan Gelber, North Miami Mayor Kevin Burns

Georgia (Johnny Isakson)--SAFE GOP
The Democrats don't have much of a bench in Georgia, so it seems highly unlikely that he will be unseated. However, a PPP poll showed that he might be more vulnerable than most think, showing him leading Attorney Gen. Thurbert Baker and Rep. Jim Marshall by 6 and 9 points, respectively. But it is unlikely that either of these Democrats give up their current positions to challenge a popular Republican incumbent. However, there have been rumors floating around that Isakson might face a primary challenge, possibly in the form of Rep. Paul Broun (R-GA).
Potential Challengers: Rep. Paul Broun, Attorney Gen. Thurbert Baker, Rep. Jim Marshall, Former Sec. of State Cathy Cox, State Labor Commissioner Mike Thurmond
Announced Challengers: None

Idaho (Mike Crapo)--SAFE GOP
Crapo (pronounced Cray-po) will cruise to re-election without a shadow of a doubt, his last name aside. The Democrats didn't even put up a challenger against him last time.
Potential Challengers: None
Announced Challengers: None

Iowa (Chuck Grassley)--SAFE GOP unless he retires
Grassley will be 77 in 2010, so he is on everyone's retirement watch. If he does retire, this race will become one of the Democrats' top takeover opportunities, as there will be no shortage of strong Democratic challengers who will be interested in the seat with Rep. Bruce Braley leading the way. But if he decides to run for reelection, he's safe.
Potential Challengers: Rep. Steve King, Rep. Bruce Braley, Former Lt. Gov. Sally Pederson, State Senate Majority Leader Mike Gronstal, Former Rep. Mike Blouin, Former Assemblyman Ed Fallon
Announced Challengers: None

Kansas (Open)--SAFE GOP
Gov. Kathleen Sebelius (D)--who will be term-limited in 2010--was widely thought to be the Democrat's only hope to make this seat competitive. But she was tapped as President Obama's Secretary of Health and Human Services, which eliminates the possibility of her running for the seat. Meanwhile, state Republicans are gearing up for a heated primary battle between Reps. Jerry Moran and Todd Tiahrt. Assuming Sebelius doesn't run, the winner of the GOP will likely become the next U.S. Senator from the state of Kansas.
Potential Candidates: Former Lt. Gov. John Moore, Former Rep. Nancy Boyda, State Sen. Chris Steineger
Announced Candidates: Rep. Jerry Moran, Rep. Todd Tiahrt

Kentucky (Jim Bunning)--TOSS-UP
Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell (R-KY) and NRSC chair John Cornyn (R-TX) are trying to get Bunning to retire, because they are concerned about his reelection prospects and think that they may have a better shot of retaining the seat if another Republican ran in his place. But Bunning has taken on McConnell, calling him "deaf, " fervently insisting that he will run again. Lt. Gov. Dan Mongiardo, who narrowly lost to Bunning in 2004, has announced his candidacy, ensuring a competitive race. But he will first have to face a tough primary against state Attorney General Jack Conway (D).
Potential Challengers: State Senate President David Williams
Announced Challengers: Lt. Gov. Dan Mongiardo, Attorney Gen. Jack Conway,Former US Customs Agent Darlene Fitzgerald

Louisiana (David Vitter)--LIKELY GOP
Vitter's involvement in the DC Madam scandal will undoubtedly complicate his reelection bid. He may even face a serious primary challenge from Secretary of State Jay Dardenne. But Vitter is positioning himself so far to right (he was one of two Senators that voted against confirming Hillary Clinton as Secretary of State) so that someone like Dardenne would have a hard time running against him from the right. He clearly think that his major test will be the primary, not in the general election, as the Democrats' bench is pretty weak in Louisiana.
Potential Challengers: Sec. of State Jay Dardenne, Porn Star Stormy Daniels, State Sen. Eric LaFleur, Shaw Group CEO Jim Bernhard, District Attorney Paul Connick, State Sen. Rob Marioneaux, Lt. Gov. Mitch Landrieu, Former Rep. Chris John
Announced Challengers: None

Missouri (Open)--TOSS-UP
Republican Sen. Kit Bond announced that he will not seek a fifth term, so the seat will be open in 2010. Rep. Roy Blunt (R) announced that he would run for the seat, and has the backing of the GOP's state and national establishment. He might face opposition in the primary from former state Treasurer Sarah Steelman, who would run a bruising insider/outsider campaign against Blunt. Secretary of State Robin Carnahan, who is thought to be the strongest Democratic candidate, announced her candidacy and is likely to clear the Democratic primary field. If its a Blunt vs. Carnahan race, as expected, it will be one of the most competitive races in the country, and the DSCC will make this a top pickup target.
Potential Candidates: Former State Treasurer Sarah Steelman, Rep. William Lacy Clay
Announced Candidates: Rep. Roy Blunt, Sec. of State Robin Carnahan

New Hampshire (Open)--TOSS-UP
All of the drama surrounding Gregg and withdrawal from Commerce Secretary has resulted in a wash since Gregg has agreed not to run for reelection, so it will be an open seat in 2010. Rep. Paul Hodes (D) announced that he will run for the seat, and the Democratic establishment appears to be behind him--and now that Rep. Carol Shea-Porter (D) has backed down, he is the likely Democratic nominee. tate Republicans are trying to get former Sen. John Sununu (R-NH)--who was defeated by Democrat Jeanne Shaheen in 2008--to enter the race, but he no longer lives in New Hampshire, and might not want to run two years after getting ousted by the same voters. If Sununu opts out, the GOP bench gets very thin.
Potential Candidates: Former Sen. John Sununu, Former Gov. Steve Merrill, Former Rep. Charlie Bass, Former Attorney Gen. Tom Rath, Businessman Sean Mahoney, 2008 Congressional Candidate Jennifer Horn, Attorney Gen. Kelly Ayotte, Former State Supreme Court Justice Joseph Nadeau
Announced Candidates: Rep. Paul Hodes

North Carolina (Richard Burr)--LEAN GOP unless Roy Cooper (D) runs
This is North Carolina's "buyer's remorse seat," having changed hands in the last five elections. Burr has tepid approval ratings and he could be in some trouble if the DSCC recruits a top-tier challenger. State Attorney General Roy Cooper (D) has matched up well against Burr well in early polling and would be probably be the strongest Democratic candidate.
Potential Challengers: Attorney Gen. Roy Cooper, Rep. Mike McIntyre
Announced Challengers: None

Ohio (Open)--TOSS-UP
Sen. George Voinovich announced in early January that he would not run for reelection in 2010, and former Bush appointee and Rep. Rob Portman (R) announced that he would run for his seat. He has the backing of state and national Republicans and will almost definitely be the Republican nominee. Two of the state's top Democrats--Lt. Gov. Lee Fisher and Sec. of State Jennifer Brunner--announced that they would run, setting up a contentious primary.
Potential Candidates: State Auditor Mary Taylor, Hamilton County Commissioner Todd Portune, Cuyahoga County Commissioner Peter Lawson Jones
Announced Candidates: Former Rep. Rob Portman, Lt. Gov. Lee Fisher, Sec. of State Jennifer Brunner, State Rep. Tyrone Yates

Oklahoma (Tom Coburn)--SAFE GOP unless Brad Henry (D) runs
This race probably won't be competitive unless popular governor Gov. Brad Henry, who will be term-limited in 2010, jumps in the race. But that is very unlikely.
Potential Challengers: Gov. Brad Henry, State Sen. Andrew Rice
Announced Challengers: None

Pennsylvania (Arlen Specter)--LEAN GOP unless Pat Toomey (R) wins the GOP nomination
Club For Growth President and former Rep. Pat Toomey (R), a staunch conservative, announced that he will seek a rematch against Sen. Arlen Specter (R). He is expected to pose a very strong challenge to Specter from the right with plenty of fundraising and establish support, and may very well defeat him and get the GOP nomination. At least that's what the Democrats are hoping for, as Toomey is seen as a much weaker general election candidate than Specter. If Specter comes out on top, he will still be weakened financially and will have veered to the right in order to appease Pennsylvania Republicans after the primary, thus making him a weaker general election candidate. In fact, Toomey's entrance in the race could make potential candidates like Rep. Allyson Schwartz and Auditor Gen. Jack Wagner more likely to jump into the race. Of course, there's always the possibility that Specter switches to an Independent before then, complicating matters further.
Potential Challengers: Rep. Allyson Schwartz, Auditor Gen. Jack Wagner, Rep. Patrick Murphy, State Rep. Josh Shapiro, Rep. Joe Sestak, Philadelphia District Attorney Lynne Abraham
Announced Challengers: Former Rep. Pat Toomey, Anti-Abortion Rights Activist Peg Luksik, Larry Murphy, Joe Torsella

South Carolina (Jim DeMint)--SAFE GOP
The top viable candidates in both parties will be focused on the governor's race. Also, the Democrats have a weak bench in South Carolina, so DeMint is completely safe.
Potential Challengers: None
Announced Challengers: None

South Dakota (John Thune)--SAFE GOP
Thune is very popular, and all of the prominent Democrats are going to be focused on the governor's race. Statewide Rep. Stephanie Herseth Sandlin could be a potentially viable challenger, but if she gives up her House seat, it will be to run for governor, not the Senate.
Potential Challengers: Rep. Stephanie Herseth Sandlin
Announced Challengers: None

Texas (Unknown)--LIKELY GOP
Popular Sen. Kay Bailey Hutchinson will challenge fellow Republican Rick Perry for governor in 2010. She has said that she will likely resign her seat sometime in 2009, and Perry will appoint a Republican to replace her until the 2010 special election. On the Democratic side, Houston Mayor Bill White has declared his candidacy and former state comptroller John Sharp will probably jump in as well.
Potential Candidates: State Rep. Rafael Anchia, Lt. Gov. David Dewhurst, Attorney Gen. Greg Abbott, State Sen. Florence Shapiro
Announced Challengers: Houston Mayor Bill White, Former State Comptroller John Sharp

Utah (Bob Bennett)--SAFE GOP
Utah is as red as it gets, so there is not a chance for any Democrat. He might, however, get a challenge from the right in the form of Attorney David Leavitt, who is best known for his successful prosecution of polygamist Tom Green. But if he gets past the primary, he will win a fourth term easily.
Potential Challengers: Attorney David Leavitt, Attorney Gen. Mark Shurtleff
Announced Challengers: None

And now for the seats held by Democrats.

Arkansas (Blanche Lincoln)--SAFE DEM
Even though Arkansas goes red in presidential elections, it is very Democratic at the state level. The probable GOP candidate is former US Attorney Tim Griffin, who is unlikely to defeat Lincoln.
Potential Challengers: Former US Attorney Tim Griffin, State Sen. Gilbert Baker
Announced Challengers: State Sen. Minority Leader Kim Hendren

California (Barbara Boxer)--SAFE DEM
Former Hewlett-Packard CEO Carly Fiorina appears to be the only Republican who could make this race interesting. But even if she did run, a recent Field poll showed that she would not come close to defeating Boxer, despite Boxer's wavering popularity back home.
Potential Challengers: Businesswoman Carly Fiorina, Rep. Dana Rohrabacher
Announced Challengers: Assemblyman Chuck DeVore

Colorado (Michael Bennet)--LEAN DEM
Sen. Ken Salazar was picked by Barack Obama to be his Secretary of the Interior, so Gov. Bill Ritter (D) tapped Denver Public Schools Superintendent Michael Bennet to replace him. Bennet has made it clear that he will run for the seat outright in 2010. The top Republican recruit in the state, Attorney Gen. John Suthers, announced that he will not run again Bennet, further weakening the Republicans' chances of flipping the seat. The top potential GOP candidates are now former Gov. Bill Owens (who is unlikely to run) and former Rep. Bob Beauprez.
Potential Challengers: State House Speaker Andrew Romanoff, Former Rep. Bob Beauprez, Weld County District Attorney Ken Buck, Aurora City Councilman Ryan Frazier, Former US Attorney Troy Eid, Former Gov. Bill Owens, Former football star John Elway, Former Rep. Tom Tancredo
Announced Challengers: None

Connecticut (Chris Dodd)--TOSS-UP
Dodd is in deep trouble. He's under fire for recent allegations that he received a sweetheart mortgage deal from Countrywide Financial, he is still suffering--financially and with supporters back home--from his unsuccessful presidential campaign where he camped out in Iowa for several months, and is being blamed by most Connecticut voters for the AIG bonuses fiasco. A recent Quinnipiac poll shows his negatives skyrocketing at 59% and his favorables bottoming out at 33%, while he trails likely GOP nominee former Rep. Rob Simmons 50-34. Dodd is now clearly the most vulnerable Democratic incumbent in 2010 and will need all the help he can get to win a sixth term in the Senate.
Potential Challengers: Former Ambassador Tom Foley
Announced Challengers: Former Rep. Rob Simmons, State Sen. Sam Caligiuri

Delaware (Open)--SAFE DEM
The governor appointed Joe Biden's old staffer, Ted Kaufman, to replace him, but he has indicated that he won't run in 2010. The front-runner for the Democrats will be state Attorney General Beau Biden, who is currently serving in Iraq. Republican hopes rely on statewide Rep. Mike Castle, but he is unlikely to run--he is old, has health issues, and has a relative safe House seat. The chance that he will jump in the race greatly decreased after Christine O'Donnell, the GOP's 2008 Senate nominee, announced that she will run. O'Donnell is seen as a much weaker opponent than Castle. Assuming Castle passes on the race and O'Donnell is the Republican nominee, the winner of the Democratic primary will undoubtedly go on to win the general election. If Biden doesn't run, the DSCC would try to recruit former Lt. Gov. John Carney, but Carney is said to be more interested in running for the House seat currently held by Castle.
Potential Candidates: Attorney Gen. Beau Biden, Rep. Mike Castle
Announced Candidates: Christine O'Donnell

Hawaii (Daniel Inouye)--SAFE DEM unless Gov. Linda Lingle (R) runs
Despite his very old age, Inouye has announced that he will seek reelection. The GOP's only hope is with Gov. Linda Lingle, who will be term-limited in 2010. But a recent Research 2000 poll showed Lingle trailing Inouye in a hypothetical match-up, 53-42. Even though Lingle is popular, Hawaii is a staunchly Democratic state and Inouye has been serving in Congress since Hawaii achieved statehood in the 1950s and is a fixture in the state. Plus, Lingle is likely to wait for a senatorial retirement to try her luck.
Potential Challengers: Gov. Linda Lingle
Announced Challengers: None

Illinois (Roland Burris)--LIKELY DEM
Roland Burris has not made up his mind about 2010 despite the controversy that surrounds him and the multiple calls for him to resign. But if he does run, he will have an incredibly hard time in 2010 in the Democratic primary, let alone the general election. State Treasurer Alexi Giannoulias has already announced that he will run for the seat in 2010, whether Burris runs or not. He might be joined in the Democratic primary by political powerhouses such as Rep. Jan Schakowsky and former Commerce Secretary William Daley. Republicans' hope seems to lie with Rep. Mark Kirk, but a recent poll shows that he has net negative favorability ranking and doesn't fare well hypothetical general election match-ups--even against Burris. But with the recent scandals, lies, and further incriminating developments, it is becoming very clear how 2010 will shape up: if Burris is the Democratic nominee, the seat will flip to the GOP; if someone else (i.e. Giannoulias, Schakowsky) wins the nomination, the seat will most likely stay in Democratic hands. It's also possible that Burris will leave office--whether he resigns or is impeached--before 2010, in which case there would be a special election within four months of him leaving office.
Potential Challengers: Rep. Jan Schakowsky, Former Commerce Secretary William Daley, Rep. Jesse Jackson Jr., Rep. Mark Kirk, Rep. Peter Roskam
Announced Challengers: State Treasurer Alexi Giannoulias

Indiana (Evan Bayh)--SAFE DEM
Indiana is turning bluer and Bayh has $11 million on hand if by some miracle the GOP puts up a viable challenger. He's a shoo-in.
Potential Challengers: None
Announced Challengers: None

Maryland (Barbara Mikulski)--SAFE DEM
Mikulski will be 74 in 2010, but even if she retires the Democrats would still start with the upper-hand. If she runs again, she will be re-elected no matter what. There are rumors that she might replace Tom Daschle as President Obama's nominee for Secretary of Health and Human services, in which case Gov. Martin O'Malley (D) would get to appoint her replacement.
Potential Challengers: None
Announced Challengers: None

Nevada (Harry Reid)--LEAN DEM
Reid's approval ratings are just awful and he'll take a lot of flak as Majority Leader in his bid for re-election, and the GOP is going to put in a lot of money to try and bring him down. However, the Republicans aren't in a great position to unseat him. Nevada is turning bluer and Reid can use his position to raise a ton of money. His two major potential challengers just suffered major setbacks--Rep. John Porter just lost his bid for reelection, and Lt. Gov. Brian Krolicki just got indicted. However, a Research 2000 poll showed that Reid only led Porter by an uncomfortable six points in a hypothetical match-up, and Krolicki is still seriously considering running against Reid despite his impending indictment charges. But whoever the GOP puts forth to challenge Reid, you can expect them to mount a solid challenge to Reid with a lot of help from the NRSC, and he is clearly the most vulnerable Democratic incumbent.
Potential Challengers: Rep. Dean Heller, Former Rep. Jon Porter, Lt. Gov. Brian Krolicki
Announced Challengers: None

New York (Chuck Schumer)--SAFE DEM
The races for the governor's mansion and Hillary Clinton's vacant senate seat will draw all of the competition away from Schumer's race, so he is as safe as can be. He might even run unopposed.
Potential Challengers: None
Announced Challengers: None

New York (Kirsten Gillibrand)--SAFE DEM unless Former Gov. George Pataki (R) runs
Gov. David Paterson (D-NY) appointed Rep. Kirsten Gillibrand, a moderate Democrat, to fill Hillary Clinton's open Senate seat in January. Gillibrand, who is only 42, is a prodigious fundraiser and a fierce campaign opponent. Rep. Peter King (R-NY), who would be the GOP front-runner if he ran (unless former Gov. George Pataki jumped in), has said that he will wait until the summer to decide whether or not he will run against her in 2010. Meanwhile, Rep. Carolyn McCarthy (D-NY), representing the liberal wing of the party, has said that she would run against Gillibrand in the Democratic primary if no one else did, citing Gillibrand's support of gun owners' rights. However, Gillibrand is expected to move farther to the left because she is now representing New York as a whole, which is far more liberal than her old congressional district. Groups like EMILY's List have already started to coalesce around Gillibrand, and majority of New Yorkers now approve of the appointment.
Potential Challengers: Rep. Carolyn McCarthy, Rep. Carolyn Maloney, Rep. Steve Israel, Manhattan Borough President Scott Stringer, Former Gov. George Pataki, Rep. Peter King
Announced Challengers: None

North Dakota (Byron Dorgan)--SAFE DEM unless Gov. John Hoeven (R) runs
Dorgan is very popular and will probably win re-election unless popular Gov. John Hoeven runs against him, which is unlikely.
Potential Challengers: Gov. John Hoeven, Duane Sand
Announced Challengers: None

Oregon (Ron Wyden)--SAFE DEM
Wyden is very popular, and any credible Republican opposition is going to focus on the governor's race.
Potential Challengers: Former Sen. Gordon Smith
Announced Challengers: None

Vermont (Patrick Leahy)--SAFE DEM
Unless Leahy retires, his seat is untouchable. Republican Gov. Jim Douglas is the only Republican who could potentially make this race interesting, but a Research 2000 poll showed that Leahy would handily defeat Douglas if he ran. But Douglas is up for reelection in 2010, so he is unlikely to challenge Leahy in what would be a very difficult race for the Republican.
Potential Challengers: Gov. Jim Douglas
Announced Challengers: None

Washington (Patty Murray)--SAFE DEM
Murray, who is often underestimated as she was in 2004, is pretty much a shoo-in to win a fourth term in this increasingly Democratic state. So most credible Republicans will probably wait for a better cycle to try their luck.
Potential Challengers: Rep. Dave Reichert, Attorney Gen. Rob McKenna, Former State Sen. Dino Rossi
Announced Challengers: None

Wisconsin (Russ Feingold)--LIKELY DEM
Feingold, who has been one of the Senate's most liberal members since he joined in 1993, is a perennial target for Republicans, so we can be sure that they'll put at least a halfway decent candidate. Feingold's approval numbers have worsened of late, leaving an opening for a top-tier challenger such as Rep. Paul Ryan. If Ryan takes a pass on the race, the GOP bench becomes much thinner, and Feingold will have an easier path to winning a fourth term.
Potential Challengers: Rep. Paul Ryan, Attorney Gen. John Van Hollen, Green Bay Mayor Jim Schmitt
Announced Challengers: None