Iowa Fallout

Well, Iowa is finally over and done with. But that doesn't mean it's legacy is over.

There is much speculation on how much momentum Barack Obama and Mike Huckabee would carry out of victories in Iowa.

What does this mean for the two victors and the many losers coming into New Hampshire on Tuesday?

Iowa proved that young people and independents are major players in this process. Now more than ever. They came out to support Obama which helped him squash the competition in Iowa.

The equivalent on the GOP side was evangelicals, who made Huckabee the clear winner.

Going into New Hampshire, Obama's win seems more significant than Huckabee's. There is likely to be many young and independent voters on the Democratic side, who will most likely support Obama.

In response, Hillary Clinton and John Edwards, Obama's biggest competition, are trying to reach out to young voters in New Hampshire to try and make up the difference there.

With only five days in between the Iowa caucuses and the New Hampshire primaries, Clinton and Edwards are scrambling to claw their way back to the top and stop Obama's momentum. Clinton is expected to get very negative in the next three days to stop the bleeding.

Overall, Obama has better ground support in New Hampshire. He has met with more people and has better grassroots support and get-out-the-vote organization than Clinton.

His schedule up until Tuesday is filled with more public events than hers, which is surprising. I thought she would have been trying to meet with as many voters as possible like her husband did in 1992. This decision could prove fatal for her campaign if she loses again to Obama.

Meanwhile, on the Republican side, the man to beat is John McCain. He greatly benefited from Mitt Romney's loss, who is expected to drop in the polls after the devastating loss.

Romney has once again changed his message, and is focusing on change itself after Mike Huckabee won on that platform in Iowa. He attacked John McCain today saying that he is a Washington insider and would not change a thing.

Romney has changed his message over and over again, seemingly just to appeal to voters. But it has not worked. The people of Iowa saw right through him, and so will the people of New Hampshire.

There is also a battle for third place between Mike Huckabee, Ron Paul, and Rudy Giuliani. Huckabee expects his Iowa victory to land him to that position, but Ron Paul's massive fundraising and libertarian base in New Hampshire might challenge that.

Giuliani hasn't devoted all of his efforts to New Hampshire, but more so than in Iowa. He is hoping that a third place finish here could give him the media recognition he needs for running the national campaign that he intends to run.

Both Obama and McCain come into New Hampshire as front-runners, with more direct contact with voters. Clinton and Romney hope to defeat their respective opponents based on their credentials--despite their poor showing in Iowa.

Obama, Huckabee Win Big in Iowa

Well, just as I predicted (not intended with an arrogant tone), Barack Obama and Mike Huckabee won Iowa last night.

Not only did they win, but they won big last night in the long anticipated Iowa caucuses. Here are the official numbers.

Democrats:
Obama 38%
Edwards 30%
Clinton 29%
Richardson 2%
Biden 1%
Dodd 0%
Kucinich 0%
Gravel 0%

Republicans:
Huckabee 34%
Romney 25%
Thompson 13%
McCain 13%
Paul 10%
Giuliani 4%
Hunter 1%

There was record turnout on both sides with about 239,000 turning out on the Democratic side and about 120,000 on the Republican side.

This big showing greatly helped Obama win. Large numbers of independents and young voters--historically unreliable bases--came out in droves for Obama, propelling him to win by 8 percentage points.

Also, the second-choice supporters of Kucinich and Richardson may have helped him to a smaller degree.

Surprisingly, Obama defeated Clinton among women, which was thought to be her strong base. He also showed strong with first time caucus-goers and independents. They really took to his message of change and national unification that he made consistently in Iowa.

These results were also a major blow to John Edwards and Hillary Clinton.

Edwards poured almost all of his resources into Iowa, and did not really stop campaigning there after 2004. He proclaimed his second-place showing to be a victory, but it will really hurt him in the long-run. He will need a miracle to make a comeback in the states ahead.

Last night was especially disappointing to Clinton, who was told initially by some her advisers not to campaign in Iowa, and focus on a more national campaign.

Maybe she should have done just that. She spent a lot of her resources in this state where she knew she had high negative ratings.

Now she will campaign with Bill in New Hampshire, a state where independents make up 40% of the total New Hampshire electorate, who generally support Obama.

He will get a lot of momentum over the next five days, and it may well be enough to carry him to victory in New Hampshire.

In other news, Senators Chris Dodd and Joe Biden dropped out of the race after their poor showing in Iowa. They have yet to endorse any other candidates.

On the Republican side, Mike Huckabee beat out his main competitor, Mitt Romney, by 9 percentage points even though Romney outspent him by about 15 to 1 in Iowa.

Huckabee was largely helped by evangelical voters, who made up 60% of Iowa Republican voters. Now, they both turn to New Hampshire.

But this victory really makes the Republican race much more interesting. This loss will most likely hurt Mitt Romney in New Hampshire, as he will try to make a stand there.

These results greatly help John McCain, who was already on the rise in New Hampshire, even before yesterday. His major competitor in that state is the wounded Mitt Romney.

In Iowa, McCain tied Fred Thompson for third with 13% of the vote. Thompson confirmed that he would remain in the race. He is making his stand in South Carolina.

Meanwhile, Ron Paul finished with a strong 10%, finishing just behind McCain and Thompson. These results may help him secure a fourth or even third place finish in New Hampshire.

Giuliani finished with a resounding 4%, which is not really all that surprising considering he did not spend all that much time and money in the state. He is hoping that the field is still unsettled come Super Tuesday and he can emerge in the confusion.

We'll see how these results--and the spin--affect the New Hampshire results on both sides.

Iowa Predictions

My guess is really as good as anyone's as to who wins in Iowa. And it is very likely that I will be horribly wrong, but following this race very closely, here are my predictions for the January 3rd Iowa Caucuses.

Democrats
1.) Obama 31%
2.) Edwards 29%
3.) Clinton 28%
4.) Richardson 6%
5.) Biden 5%
6.) Dodd 1%
7.) Kucinich 0%
8.) Gravel 0%

Republicans
1.) Huckabee 31%
2.) Romney 29%
3.) McCain 13%
4.) Thompson 12%
5.) Paul 9%
6.) Giuliani 6%
7.) Hunter 0%

Both races will be extremely close, and the results will be a matter of turnout. I think that turnout will be larger than expected in Iowa--over 150,000 the Democratic side and about 100,000 on the Republican side.

I predict that Barack Obama will win Iowa by a very small margin over John Edwards and Hillary Clinton.

Independents and first-time caucus goers will show up in droves for Obama, catapulting him to first place. Edwards will finish a close second second because of the wide support he will receive as the second choice of also-ran candidates like Bill Richardson, Joe Biden, and Chris Dodd.

Kucinich supporters will caucus for Obama and he'll still do very will as a second choice candidate.

Both Obama and Edwards have gained momentum recently in Iowa, which definitely counts in Iowa--demonstrated by Kerry's come-from-behind win in 2004.

Clinton will do well after the first round of voting, but will fall into third place after the second choices of also-rans are counted. The high turnout of independents and young voters will hurt her and help the other two.

Richardson will come in a very distant fourth, followed closely by Biden, then Dodd. They will drop out after New Hampshire.

On the Republican side, I predict that the high turnout will favor Mike Huckabee and he will win in Iowa. First-time caucus goers will support him in great numbers and he will edge out Mitt Romney in Iowa.

Iowa Republicans are very concerned about character and social issues. They like Huckabee more in both of those categories and will give him enough votes to win. In the past, social issues candidates have fared well here.

He is also more likable than Romney and is more similar to most Iowans.

Mitt Romney, despite vastly outspending Huckabee, will finish in a close second here. The high turnout will hurt him badly here.

John McCain will edge out Fred Thompson for third because of his strong patriotism and consistency with the surge in Iraq and other major issues.

Ron Paul will get an surprising 9% in Iowa putting him just behind McCain and Thompson.

Like I said, these predictions are just about as good as anyone's, because both of these races are so close. We'll see how close I come to being right.

Kucinich Supports Obama in Iowa

Rep. Dennis Kucinich of Ohio asked his supporters yesterday to make Sen. Barack Obama their second choice in Iowa if he does not meet the 15% threshold in precincts in Iowa.

If a candidate does not meet this threshold in a particular precinct, their supporters must support a candidate who has reached that mark or they can go home (this is only true on the Democratic side).

This is why second choice candidates are so important in Iowa, and the top three candidates have been vying for Richardson, Biden, Dodd, and Kucinich's supporters to make them their second choice if they do not make 15%.

Kucinich is the first also-ran candidate to openly declare an alliance with another candidate. However, he is polling very poorly in Iowa as of late, coming in consistently at 1 or 2%.

Kucinich did say that this agreement with Obama was only relevant in Iowa and not New Hampshire or any other states.

But, this could be the boost Obama needed with 2 days to go before the Iowa caucuses and could just be enough to tip the balance for him in the very tight three-way race in Iowa.

We'll see how much impact this and other campaign alliances will have on January 3rd.

What If Edwards Wins Iowa?

Over the past few months, political pundits have been predicting the scenarios of a Clinton or Obama victory in Iowa. But they failed to address the ever-looming threat of John Edwards.

Each day, polls consistently show him getting closer to these two. And now, it's officially a tossup.

The leads among these three are well within the margin of error in these polls, making the outcome a matter of turnout and second choice candidates.

But what happens if Edwards comes up big and wins Iowa?

First, the media will label him as "The Comeback Kid," and they'll obsess over his gradual rise to the top despite a lack of funds. To the victor goes the media.

That positive spin will not necessarily boost him to a victory in New Hampshire, as he polls poorly there.

I personally don't think Edwards can win in New Hampshire under any circumstances, just because his populist message won't really resonate with New Hampshire independents.

A southern populist Baptist doesn't have much in common with a secular a free-thinking New Englander.

But if Edwards pulls it out in Iowa, this race will get a lot more interesting.

Let's go through a couple of scenarios.

Let's say that Edwards comes in first, Clinton in second, and Obama in third, and the final tally is pretty close.

I personally think that in Iowa, who loses is more important than who wins. In this case, Obama would lose big, and would probably lose New Hampshire to Clinton because of the spin the media and the Clintons would put on the outcome.

But if Obama places second and Clinton places third in Iowa, the media will talk about the "epic demise" of Hillary Clinton, and about the myth of her inevitability.

Her campaign would try to shrug it off, saying that Iowa is no big deal, even though it has spent millions of dollars and quite a bit of time there.

They would say, "Oh it's no big deal. They weren't her kind of people anyway." But ideologically, it would be a huge loss for her. Democrats around the country will think that if she can't win (or come close to winning) there, then she can't win anywhere.

A third place finish for her would hurt her more than one for Obama.

Edwards would have to duke it out with the winner of New Hampshire in states like Nevada and South Carolina. That is much too far away to predict. So much can and will happen from now until then.