Canvassing Board Certifies Franken as Winner

Today was not a great day for now-former Senator Norm Coleman.

First, the state Supreme Court rejected his request to include about 650 additional wrongfully rejected absentee ballots (most of which were in Coleman-friendly territory) to the final count and to delay the Canvassing Board from certifying a winner until that request was met. This lawsuit was what many thought was his last hope, and it was a Hail Mary pass at that.

The majority opinion of the court said that the Coleman campaign's attempt to include these additional ballots did not meet the criteria for counting ballots which was laid out in a previous ruling, in which they declared that both sides had to agree for any additional wrongfully rejected absentee ballots to be counted.

Then, later in the day, the Canvassing Board certified the results of the recount and declared Democrat Al Franken (above) as the winner by a margin of 225 votes.

Franken declared victory a short time after: "After 62 days, after the careful and painstaking hand inspection of nearly 3 million ballots, after hours and hours of hard work by elections officials and volunteers across the state, I am proud and humbled to stand before you as the next Senator from Minnesota," Franken told supporters today.

He also carefully called on Coleman to bow down and concede from the race so that Minnesota could seat two Senators as soon as possible.

But the Coleman campaign had different ideas. Coleman's attorney, Tony Trimble, confirmed earlier today that the campaign will be filing a formal lawsuit contesting the results of the Canvassing Board.

Even though Franken has now been declared the winner by the Canvassing Board, he will likely not be seated for some time. In Minnesota, an election's certification is not considered final and absolute if a legal contest is filed with one week. And you can bet the farm that Coleman will file his lawsuit in that 7-day window.

Also, Sen. John Cornyn (R-TX), the chairman of the National Republican Senatorial Committee, threatened a Republican filibuster if the Senate Democrats try to seat Franken provisionally before all legal matters are attended to. He said that the GOP will also block Franken until Gov. Tim Pawlenty (R-MN) cosigns Minnesota Secretary of State Mark Ritchie's election certificate.

But today's certification by the Canvassing Board was clearly a big step towards resolution of this endless Senate contest. Like I said yesterday, it's basically up to Coleman when this thing will end because it's all based on how long he wants to drag this thing out.

Schumer: Franken Won

Sen. Chuck Schumer (D-NY), who just stepped down as the chairman of the Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee, declared today that Al Franken has defeated incumbent Republican Sen. Norm Coleman in the Minnesota Senate recount.

“With the Minnesota recount complete, it is now clear that Al Franken won the election. The Canvassing Board will meet tomorrow to wrap up its work and certify him the winner, and while there are still possible legal issues that will run their course, there is no longer any doubt who will be the next Senator from Minnesota,” Schumer said in a statement.

The Canvassing Board is set to declare Franken the winner when they meet tomorrow, and then it is just a matter of time and lawsuits until Coleman gives up. That could be a matter of weeks or even months, depending on how long Coleman is willing to fight on.

With Recount Complete, Franken Leads By 225

With the help of the 933 wrongfully rejected absentee that were counted today by the Minnesota Canvassing Board, Democrat Al Franken gained a net 176 votes putting his overall lead over Sen. Norm Coleman (R-MN) at 225. This was the final step of the vote-counting process, and the recount is now officially over.

Now all eyes are turned to the Minnesota Supreme Court, which is considering a request from the Coleman campaign to include additional ballots that they believe were improperly rejected (which are from areas where Coleman did better). The Coleman campaign has also said that they will be challenging the results if and when Franken is certified as the winner.

Coleman is basically just grasping at some very short straws at this point, and barring a miracle, he will lose his seat to Franken just as soon as his court challenges are dealt with (and probably rejected).

Republican Gov. Tim Pawlenty has declared that the state will not certify a winner until all legal challenges are completed, so it could be a while until Minnesota seats two Senators on Capitol Hill.

It now seems highly unlikely that Harry Reid and the Senate Democrats will try to seat Franken until he is officially certified as the winner.

But all things told, it looks like Franken's eventual victory is all but certain at this point. The only thing holding me back from calling him Senator-elect Franken is that it still sounds really weird.

MN Supreme Court Denies Coleman on Duplicate Ballots

The Minnesota Supreme Court unanimously denied Norm Coleman's request to prevent the state Canvassing Board from certifying the results of the recount until they deal with the issues regarding the 150 or so ballots (in Democratic areas) that they claim were counted twice.

They decided that Coleman just didn't have enough evidence, and what evidence they did have was circumstantial at best.

This law suit was really Coleman's last shot at winning this race. As of right now, he is trailing Al Franken by 46 votes, and the only votes that have not yet been counted are the 1,600 wrongfully rejected absentee ballots, which are expected to favor Franken (the Coleman campaign went to court to try and stop these from being counted).

The race will not be certified until January 5 at the earliest, and Franken should be declared the winner on or around that date. But the Coleman campaign has indicated that they will contest Franken's victory in court after it is certified.

This thing might drag on deep into January, and it looks increasingly likely that when the next Congress convenes on January 6, Minnesota will only seat one Senator--at least until this whole mess is finally resolved.

Franken Leads Coleman by 48 Votes

From the Star Tribune:

MINNEAPOLIS - Democrat Al Franken is poised to hold on to a 48-vote lead over Republican Sen. Norm Coleman as Minnesota's Canvassing Board awards a final pile of votes in the state's unsettled U.S. Senate race. But the counting isn't over yet.

The board on Tuesday is to award votes from about 5,000 challenges that had been withdrawn by both campaigns. Based on a draft report released late Monday by the Secretary of State's office, once those votes are awarded Franken will have 48 more votes than Coleman.

The two campaigns and the Secretary of State's office still have to agree how to handle an estimated 1,600 improperly rejected absentee ballots. And the state Supreme Court on Tuesday will hear arguments over a Coleman claim that some ballots were counted twice.

The Coleman campaign made the claim this afternoon to reporters that Coleman will regain the lead in the race if the court upholds their request to review the alleged "double-counted" ballots. In response, the Franken campaign said, "There is no evidence that any ballot has been counted twice. None."

Nevertheless, the Minnesota Supreme Court's decision about if or how to deal with the 130 ballots or so that were allegedly double-counted might actually be the deciding factor in this race.

Don't you just love it when the courts get the final say in a close election? Oh the memories...

Franken Expects to Beat Coleman By 35-50 Votes

From Politico:

Al Franken’s campaign is as close to declaring victory as it has throughout the weeks-long recount in the Minnesota Senate race.

Franken’s campaign attorney Marc Elias said he expects Franken to be leading Sen. Norm Coleman (R-Minn.) by “between 35 and 50 votes” when the Canvassing Board finishes counting all the disputed ballots on Tuesday.

“On Tuesday, I will stand before you with that work completed. Al Franken will have a lead of between 35 and 50 votes. And, at some point not too long after that, Al Franken will stand before you as the senator-elect from Minnesota,” Elias said at a press conference Saturday.

Currently, Franken leads Coleman by 251 votes, but his campaign expects that his lead will dwindle after the rest of the withdrawn challenges are sorted out and counted. His lead will also likely grow after the some 1,600 wrongfully rejected absentee ballots are counted--which the Coleman campaign tried very hard to prevent from happening in court.

Franken's range is a bit more conservative than the Star Tribune's estimate that he will win by 78 votes, so Franken's claim seems credible. The Coleman campaign is saying that they'll have the lead once the recount is "fully completed," but they have to say that in order to stay credible.

But in reality, in seems as though Coleman's only path to victory is that the counting of the absentee ballots nets only a few votes for Franken and the state Supreme Court sides with him and mandates a review of the some 150 ballots that his campaign claims were counted twice and that re-tabulation favors him enough to overcome Franken's lead of 35-50 votes. But there is no indication that removing these duplicate ballots will favor him, because they seemed to arise essentially at random during the counting process.

The Canvassing Board will review the remaining disputed ballots Monday and Tuesday, but the counting of the absentee ballots and the matter of the duplicates might drag on into the new year.

But essentially, Norm Coleman needs a miracle on top of a Hail Mary to win this one.

Franken Wins Two Key Canvassing Board Decisions

From Politico:

Al Franken’s campaign won two key rulings today that may help him overcome a tiny deficit against Sen. Norm Coleman in the Minnesota Senate recount.

The Minnesota Canvassing Board unanimously recommended that all counties include the absentee ballots that were unfairly rejected on Election Day in the recount. Election officials throughout the state have been sorting absentee ballots based on why they were rejected – and putting aside a fifth group (called the “fifth pile”) with those unfairly rejected ballots.

Minnesota’s Deputy Secretary of State predicted over 1,500 ballots fall in this category. If they’re included, they could potentially overturn Coleman’s razor-thin lead. Coleman leads Franken by 192 votes, according to the Secretary of State’s official count.

Earlier, the Canvassing Board voted unanimously to include the 133 missing ballots from a Minneapolis precinct that voted overwhelmingly for Franken -- another victory for the Franken camp. Coleman’s campaign argued the ballots may never have existed in the first place, and shouldn’t have been counted.

Next week, the Canvassing Board will pore over as many as 4,000 ballots that both campaigns have disputed.

Search for Misplaced 133 Ballots Called Off

From the Minneapolis Star-Tribune:

The missing 133 ballots in a Minneapolis precinct are going to stay missing - at least for now.

City spokesman Matt Laible said today that officials had suspended the search for the ballots that began after they turned up missing in the waning hours of last week's U.S. Senate recount.

The matter will be turned over to the state Canvassing Board, which will decide whether the 133 will be officially counted, Laible said.

The ballots at issue are from the Dinkytown neighborhood, a heavily Democratic area, and a comparison of Election Day results and recount totals indicates that not counting them could cost Al Franken a net of 46 votes. That has prompted his campaign to complain loudly about the disappearance. The campaign of Republican Sen. Norm Coleman, however, expressed skepticism that the ballots were truly lost.

Franken campaign attorney Marc Elias is now saying that the Franken campaign wants to switch back to the original election night tally, instead of just throwing away the 133 votes, which would essentially cut Franken's losses.

Chambliss Wins Runoff

With 93% of precincts reporting, Republican Sen. Saxby Chambliss (left) leads Democratic challenger Jim Martin 58 to 42%. AP, CNN, and most of the other major news organizations have called the race for Chambliss.

African Americans did not come out in as large numbers as they did in November, and Chambliss's message seemed to have resonated with many Georgians.

This is certainly a disappointing night for Democrats, whose dreams of a 60-seat supermajority in the Senate were dashed tonight by Chambliss's victory.

But this election can be a learning lesson for Democrats for future election years. As Nate Silver of FiveThirtyEight.com said, "I think the Democrats need to think carefully about what went wrong here as they begin to gear up for 2010."

The current count of the new Senate is 58 to 41 in the Democrats favor (including Joe Lieberman and Bernie Sanders on the Democratic side).

The only race that has yet to be decided is the one in Minnesota, where the recount is still going on. The the Canvassing Board will have to look over at least 6,000 challenged ballots, one-by-one, before we know the winner. And that probably won't be until late December at the earliest.

For those of you out there who still crave more elections, the last two races of this year will be on Saturday, as LA-02 and LA-04 hold their postponed elections. I will delve into those races later in the week.

Georgia Senate Runoff Prediction

The polls in Georgia close in a few hours, and I thought I'd give my last minute prediction--my last one until 2010--right about now. So for old time's sake, here we go.

Right now the polls have Chambliss up by about 5 points over Martin going into election day, but it is nearly impossible to run an accurate poll in a runoff election because it is very hard to predict turnout (which is supposed to be way down from November 4). But here's my prediction anyway:

Saxby Chambliss* (R)--53%
Jim Martin (D)--47%

Let's put it this way. On the day before the runoff election, Chambliss had Sarah Palin campaigning for him and Martin had the rapper Ludacris. That fact alone should speak volumes about what the outcome of this race will likely be.

Overall, the national GOP has put a lot more effort into this race, contributing money and sending Republican stars like John McCain, Mitt Romney, Mike Huckabee, Rudy Giuliani, Newt Gingrich, and of course, Sarah Palin to stump for Chambliss.

On the Democratic side, only Bill Clinton, Al Gore and Donna Brazile have made appearances for Martin.

And to be fair, the Republicans have been making a much stronger argument to Georgia voters in their attempt to "stop rampant liberalism" by preventing the Democrats from attaining that 60-seat filibuster-proof majority in the Senate.

There has been some anecdotal evidence that Martin does have a better ground game and get-out-the-vote effort than Chambliss, which is probably because hundreds of volunteers and paid campaign workers from the Obama campaign swooped down to Georgia to work for Martin right after the November 4 election.

But the bad news for Martin is the group that saved him from losing outright to Chambliss on the first election day--African Americans--have dropped off, according to polling data of early voters. 35% of early voters were African Americans in the first election because of the excitement with Obama, but now that number has dropped to 23%. That's going to be a big problem for Martin.

Martin's campaign is saying that unlike the Obama campaign's emphasis on early voting, they did not do a gigantic early and absentee voting push, instead opting for a big December 2 turnout. They had better hope so, or they really don't have a prayer.

I think that between Chambliss's argument that he's the firewall between the Democrats and their 60-seat majority, the GOP star power in Georgia, and the drop in African American turnout, Chambliss will win the seat comfortably by six points over Martin.

Since Chambliss did finish 3 points ahead of Martin on November 4, he is still the favorite, but is by no means a shoe-in. It is true that anything can happen in the runoff, and they notoriously hard to predict. But it does seem as though there is a strong motivation among Georgia Republicans to come back and win this one.

Runoffs are usually a battle of the bases, and to me, it looks like their base is more enthusiastic and will come out in larger numbers to keep their guy, Saxby Chambliss, in the Senate.

Georgia Senate Runoff Update

It's coming down to the wire for Republican Sen. Saxby Chambliss and Democrat Jim Martin as they prepare for their runoff election on Tuesday.

John McCain, Mitt Romney, Mike Huckabee, and Rudy Giuliani, and Zell Miller have already come down and campaigned for Chambliss, and Sarah Palin will make several stops for him on Monday. Their message is simple--electing Chambliss might be the last chance at stopping the Democrats from having that 60-seat filibuster-proof majority and thus complete control in Washington.

Bill Clinton, Al Gore and Donna Brazile have campaigned for Martin, but he has yet to get a visit from the greatest marquee name in the party--President-elect Barack Obama. And that visit is unlikely to come, seeing as if he campaigns for Martin and he loses, he will have appeared to already have lost some of his political capital. However, he did cut a radio for Martin, and Martin is still riding the Obama wave, mentioning his name as much as he can in ads and speeches.

Chambliss defeated Martin by three points on Nov. 4, but was two-tenths of a percentage point shy of winning outright. In that race, Libertarian candidate Allen Buckley received about 3% of the vote, and who his supporters line up behind could decide the outcome of the runoff.

The polls so far show that Chambliss has a lead of about five points over Martin, but runoff elections are notoriously hard to poll because the turnout is generally much lower than on Election Day, and is thus hard to predict.

The winner of Tuesday's election will really be determined by which party turns out its base more, and as of right now it appears that Chambliss has the edge over Martin.

Ted Stevens Concedes

Republican Sen. Ted Stevens of Alaska conceded to Democrat Mark Begich earlier today, and has announced that he will not seek a recount.

With nearly all the votes counted, Begich leads by 3,724 votes, or 1.2%, over Stevens. Thus ends Stevens's forty-year long reign in the Senate.

It also dashes Sarah Palin's hope of becoming a Senator before 2012.

Now, the Democrats have officially picked up seven seats, and Sen. Joe Lieberman of Connecticut will remain in the Democratic caucus, giving them 58 seats (including Independent Sen. Bernie Sanders of Vermont).

In Minnesota, all of the ballots have been counted and Republican Sen. Norm Coleman leads Democrat Al Franken by 215 votes. However, an automatic manual recount (that's by hand) of all 2.9 million votes started today and thousands of contested ballots will be fought over one by one in the coming weeks. The recount will be overseen by a five-man board consisting of Minnesota secretary of state Mark Richie (a Democrat) and four state judges. It is being reported that it could take up to a month.

In Georgia, both sides are gearing up for the December 2 runoff election between Republican Sen. Saxby Chambliss and Democrat Jim Martin. John McCain and other marquee Republican names have been or will be down there campaigning for Chambliss, while Bill Clinton will hold a rally with Martin in Atlanta. It should be close, but I'd give the edge to Chambliss.

If the Democrats pull off a miracle and win both of these seats, then they will have their 60-seat filibuster-proof majority. But it is still highly unlikely.

Begich Will Win Alaska Senate Race

With 14,626 of the 24,000 ballots left to count today, Democrat Mark Begich now has a 2,374 vote lead over Republican Ted Stevens. The remaining results are expected to be counted by the end of the day, but Stevens would need to win the remaining votes by more than a 65-35 margin, and so far the early, absentee and provisional ballots (which are the votes that are still being counted) have heavily favored Begich.

Begich currently has a 0.77% lead over Stevens, and the only way a recount funded by the state can occur is if the margin is within 0.5%. Stevens might pay the $15,000 needed to pay for a privately funded recount. And that is chump change for Stevens.

But that's just going to be one last desperate attempt to prolong the process and salvage his long-held seat.

Nevertheless, barring a miracle, Mark Begich will be the next U.S. Senator from the weird state of Alaska.

Update (9:38 PM): Begich now leads Stevens by 3,724 votes.

Senate Races Update

After 41 more ballots were counted to today in Minnesota, Republican Sen. Norm Coleman now leads Democrat Al Franken by 215, gaining a net 9 votes from the previous count. Now the race will go to an automatic recount, and expect there to be a giant legal battle.

In Alaska, Democrat Mark Begich now leads convicted felon Sen. Ted Stevens by 1,022 votes. The results will be finalized tomorrow, and if Begich's lead is under 1,500 votes, there is a good possibility that there will be an automatic hand recount there as well.

In Georgia, big-name Republicans like John McCain are stumping for Republican Sen. Saxby Chambliss, and both the Republican and Democratic National Senatorial Committees have started ads there. Turnout is expected to be low--probably half of the number of people who voted on November 4. Its going to be a battle of the bases, and my guess is that the Republican base is stronger down there. The runoff election is scheduled for December 2.

Begich Takes Lead in Alaska Senate Race

Alaska's division of elections counted about 60,000 of the absentee, early and questioned ballots yesterday, and they broke heavily in Democrat Mark Begich's favor.

Before yesterday's count, Begich (left) trailed Sen. Ted Stevens by 3,353 votes. But now, Begich leads Stevens by 814 votes--132,196 to 131,382.

And according to FiveThirtyEight.com, "the remaining votes come from Begich-friendly districts." State elections chief Gail Fenumiai confirmed this by saying that the state's most populous region, based in Anchorage, won't count its ballots until either Monday or Wednesday. Begich is currently the mayor of Anchorage, so he is expected to do very well there, further boosting his chances of winning the seat.

The state still needs to count at least 15,000 questioned ballots and an estimated 25,000 absentees, so this thing is far from over. But it is safe to say that Begich is the overwhelming favorite to win the contested Alaska Senate seat.

It is unclear whether the Republican Party really wants Stevens to win reelection. They want a clean break from the Bush administration as well as corruption, and many Republican Senators do not want their party to be associated with the man. One of the most conservative members of the Senate, Republican Senator Jim DeMint of South Carolina has said that he will vote to expel Stevens from the Republican caucus if he wins reelection. On the other hand, a Stevens loss does get the Democrats one step closer to that 60-seat filibuster-proof majority.

If Begich does end up winning this thing, it effectively shuts the door on Sarah Palin's chances of becoming a U.S. Senator, thus helping keep her out of national politics until 2012. If Stevens was expelled from the Senate, she could have ran for the seat in the 2010 special election that would have taken place, and could have boasted that she had executive and legislative experience. But then again, she would lost her credibility as a Washington outsider. And we all know how much she loves to tote that title.

Meanwhile, the Senate race in Minnesota is getting ugly and bitter. Republican Sen. Norm Coleman leads Democrat Al Franken by 206 votes but the vote total has changed drastically since last Tuesday. Coleman was up by about 700 votes at one point, but that lead has shrunk considerably. Minnesota election officials are still counting votes.

An automatic hand recount of nearly 3 million vote will start on Nov. 18, and both Coleman and Franken have hired literally hundreds of lawyers each to deal with the inevitable legal debacle. The recount is expected to stretch into mid-December. Coleman's people have already started accusing Minnesota Secretary of State Mark Ritchie, who is a Democrat, to be biased. They are also tying him to acorn in attempt to try and invalidate him. Expect this thing to get really ugly over the next month.

Big Names Called Down for Georgia Senate Runoff

Since Republican Sen. Saxby Chambliss (left) failed to get the 50% needed to claim victory against Democrat Jim Martin, his campaign is calling in all the big Republican guns to help. John McCain, Sarah Palin, Mitt Romney, Rudy Giuliani, and Newt Gingrich are expected to go down to the Peach State and stump for Chambliss in a desperate attempt to keep as many Senate seats out of Democratic hands as humanly possible.

High-profile Democrats have not been enthusiastic about getting down to Georgia and campaigning for their guy. Martin has been in contact with Barack Obama, trying to get him to come down and stump for him, but he is in a bit of a bind.

He would love an extra seat in the Senate, but the last thing he wants right now is to fail one of his first tests and appear like he has no sway as president-elect.

There is an eerie similarity between this situation and the situation that Bill Clinton was in when he was first elected president. The Democrats had taken control of the the White House and Congress and there was a run-off election happening in Georgia. The Republican candidate framed his candidacy as a last stand against Democratic filibuster-proof majority in the Senate. Clinton and Gore ended up campaigning on behalf of the Democratic candidate, but he lost and Republicans said it was a signal of Clinton's already weakening political standing.

So, I think it's best that Obama plays it safe and sits this one out. It is far too risky for and he has more to lose than to gain. And it is unlikely that the Democrats will reach that 60-seat majority anyway. Of course it would be nice to have another Democrat in the Senate, but at what cost? And it's not like he doesn't have enough to do--he's got his hands full and then some. And I just think for those reasons, he will not campaign for Martin.

However, Martin might be able to get one of the Clintons to help him out. Bill Clinton won the state in 1992 and might still have some sway in the state as a fellow southerner.

Still, by all measures, it looks like Chambliss is still the favorite to hold his seat.

Something Smells Funny in Alaska

It really does, and I don't think it's that dead moose that Sarah Palin shot from a helicopter. Wouldn't you expect that turnout in Alaska to increase with their first native daughter on a national ticket and an extremely close Senate race? Yeah, I would think so too.

But according to initial reports, turnout in Alaska is down 14% from 2004. On top of that, the polls taken right before presidential election showed John McCain up by 14 points, but he won by 25 points. The polls also showed that Democratic Senate candidate Mark Begich ahead by between 8-22 points. But with most of the votes counted, convicted felon Sen. Ted Stevens (above) narrowly leads Begich. Those same polls also showed Democrat Ethan Berkowitz leading Rep. Don Young--another Alaskan politician under investigation--but Young is handily beating Berkowitz.

So there seems to be an across-the-board polling failure in Alaska, while the polls were very accurate everywhere else in the country. I don't really know what to make of it, but something isn't right.

Meanwhile, Ted Stevens leads Mark Begich by 3,353 votes with 100% of the precincts reporting, but there are currently at least 9,500 early votes remaining to be counted in Alaska. In addition, there are more than 50,000 absentee votes. Lastly, there are at least 18,000 "questioned" ballots, which consist principally of voters who may have cast ballots away from their home precincts. Begich has led so far among early and absentee votes, meaning that it is very possible that he could close the gap or even pull ahead of Stevens. So this race is still a toss-up. Nate Silver has a good piece on this race.

Senate Republicans and Democrats alike are calling for Stevens's expulsion from the Senate during the lame duck session--regardless of whether or not he is re-elected. If they get the two-thirds majority that is needed to expel him, guess who gets to appoint a new senator? You guessed it: Sarah Palin.

And no, Palin cannot appoint herself to the Senate. But, she can resign as governor so Lieutenant Governor Sean Parnell will then become governor, and then have him appoint her to the Senate. Thus, she could become a more central figure in national politics and stay in the spotlight leading up to her probable run for the presidency in 2012. There is a lot more riding on this seat than people think.

And with all of this corruption and ethics scandals and reverse Bradley effect with convicted felons going on in America's frozen tundra, I am considering joining the Alaskan Independence Party.

Franken Gaining on Coleman in Minn.

Minnesota Sen. Norm Coleman's lead over Democratic challenger Al Franken has been shrinking since election day, as state election officials continue to count provisional and absentee ballots. Here are the vote results from the Minnesota Secretary of State's office at various points throughout the day:

9:15 AM
Coleman: 1,211,520
Franken: 1,211,077

10:15 AM
Coleman: 1,211,525
Franken: 1,211,088

1:20 PM
Coleman: 1,211,527
Franken: 1,211,190

9:00 PM
Coleman: 1,211,542
Franken: 1,211,306

So as the day wore on, Coleman's lead has gone down from 443, to 437, to 337, to 236. After all of the votes are counted, regardless of who's ahead, an statewide automatic recount will be triggered. But legally speaking, it is important who has the lead going into the recount. Remember Bush v. Gore?

Coleman has been urging Franken to concede, but the Democrat has adamantly refused and wants all the votes to be counted, then recounted. We will probably not know the winner of this race until December.

Merkley Wins Oregon Senate Seat

According to the Portland Oregonian, Democrat Jeff Merkley has defeated Republican Sen. Gordon Smith for the closely contested Senate seat in Oregon.

As of right now, Merkley is 6,359 votes ahead of Smith with 78% of the precincts reporting, and most of the votes that are left to be counted are from more Democratic areas of the state.

The Democrats have now picked up six Senate seats, putting their total at 57 to the Republicans' 40. Three races--in Alaska, Minnesota and Georgia--are still too close to call. If by some miracle the Democrats win all three of those races, they will have their 60-seat filibuster-proof majority. But I wouldn't bet more than a dime on that happening.

Preliminary Senate Results

The real election night drama was and still is in the Senate. Right now, most of the networks have projected that the Democrats will get 56 seats (including the two independents) and the Republicans will get 40. Four races are still too close to call.

Perhaps the biggest story last night was the loss of Republican Sen. Elizabeth Dole to Democrat Kay Hagan in North Carolina. Dole had run a nasty, culture-war type of race displaying Hagan as an atheist in a vicious and blatantly untrue ad. Well, it seemed to have backfired. Hagan defeated Dole 53% to 44% last night with 100% precincts reporting.

Former Democratic Gov. Jeanne Shaheen of New Hampshire defeated Republican Sen. John Sununu last night 52% to 45% with 93% precincts reporting.

Sen. Roger Wicker held off Democrat Ronnie Musgrove in Mississippi by a margin of 55% to 45%. Also, Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell barely hung on to defeat Democrat Bruce Lunsford 53% to 47% in Kentucky.

And as expected, Democrats Mark Warner, and Tom and Mark Udall defeated their Republican opponents easily in Virginia, Colorado and New Mexico, respectively. These three races were for open seats and the Democrats picked up all of them.

Now, there's still four races that are too close to call: Minnesota, Oregon, Alaska, and Georgia. Here's the current totals for each of these races (asterisk denotes an incumbent).

MINNESOTA--100% Precincts Reporting
Coleman* (R): 42.0%
Franken (D): 42.0%
Notes: The votes are all counted here, and Coleman is up by 475 votes. But, that's close enough to trigger a statewide automatic recount, which will start in mid-November and could go on to December. We won't know the winner of this race for a while.

ALASKA--99.9% Precincts Reporting
Stevens* (R): 48.2%
Begich (D): 46.7%
Notes: Despite having been convicted on seven criminal charges last week, Ted Stevens looks like he will (narrowly) win re-election. He is up by 3,353 votes and almost all of the votes have been counted. If he is forced out of the Senate because of ethics charges, there will be a special election for his seat in 2010. Is it possible that Sarah Palin will run?

OREGON--73% Precincts Reporting
Smith* (R): 47.4%
Merkley (D): 46.9%
Notes: Smith leads Merkley by less than 7,000 votes, but there are still a lot of votes that have yet to be counted, and many of those votes are from more the Democratic counties.

GEORGIA--99% Precincts Reporting
Chambliss* (R): 49.8%
Martin (D): 46.8%
Notes: It looks as though Libertarian candidate Allen Buckley has siphoned off enough votes from Sen. Saxby Chambliss to keep his total percentage under 50%. Of course, Georgia law states that if no candidate gets to that 50% mark, a run-off election will be held between the top two candidates 4 weeks after election day, which in this case would be December 2. Allen Buckley is Jim Martin's best friend today, because now he will get a second shot at defeating Chambliss, although it will be very difficult for him to succeed.