Check out my rundown of the 2010 Senate races here

Tuesday, January 1, 2008

Electability: The Republicans

Here's my take on how electable the major contenders would fare in the general election.

First, the Republicans.

1.) John McCain
McCain is one of the only Republican contenders who could unite the party against the Democrats and put up a strong fight in November. He is a true conservative (except on immigration), has not wavered on any major issues (except the Bush tax cuts), and is experienced and well-known. He has supported the Iraq War and the surge from the start and has stood by it even when it was unpopular to do so. And, he could woo plenty of independents in the general election which could prove key in the swing states. On the other hand, the man will be 72 come election and may not be in any shape to campaign widely.

2.) Rudy Giuliani
Yes, Giuliani is a social liberal, but he could easily get the support of most conservatives and a good deal of moderates, especially in the New York metropolitan area. With an emphasis on national security, terrorism and how he handled 9/11 in NYC, he could put states like New Jersey and Pennsylvania into play. But, his social liberalness could give way to a 3rd party candidate with emphasis on moral values. And he has a lot of baggage coming into the race.

3.) Mitt Romney
Romney has faltered a bit so far on the campaign trail, but he's working hard to put himself out there as a true conservative. He can definitely rally the conservative base (mostly Bushies), and maybe some moderates. But his flip-flopping on abortion, gay rights, and other things he said to get elected governor of Massachusetts and his Mormonism would turn off a lot of voters. Expect a 3rd party with emphasis on "true" Christian values to emerge should he get the nomination. He is also wildly unpopular with young voters as well as poor voters and would alienate much of the moderates with his old-style Reagan-esque conservatism.

4.) Mike Huckabee
As an ex-minister, he could swoop up just about every evangelical in the country along with many grass roots conservatives. However, he has not proven to have a great fiscal record, including getting rid of the IRS and having the Arkansas economy plummet, and would alienate many fiscal conservatives and moderates--even if he does have Chuck Norris's support.

5.) Fred Thompson
There is just nothing special about Fred Thompson. He would do little more than keep on the true conservative base. Moderates and independents would look the other way.

6.) Ron Paul
No way. Sorry guys.