MO: Carnahan Leading in GOP Internal Poll

A new Republican internal poll commissioned by Wilson Research Strategies out of Missouri shows Secretary of State Robin Carnahan (D) leading both of her potential Republican opponents--Rep. Roy Blunt and former state Treasurer Sarah Steelman--for the state's open Senate seat in 2010. The poll was commissioned as Republican internal poll.

Carnahan leads Blunt 47% to 44%, and she leads Steelman 47% to 39%. The survey has a 4% margin of error. The poll also found that Blunt has very high negatives among Democrats and Independents, presumably from his partisan past as a House Republican leader.

On the Democratic side, Carnahan will likely not face any trouble in the primary, and with the announcement of her candidacy she immediately became the probable Democratic nominee.

On the Republican side, things won't be that simple. Blunt has already announced his candidacy and Steelman has shown signs that she will jump in as well, setting up a fierce and probably nasty GOP primary that could drive up the negatives and drain the cash of the eventual nominee.

The Republican establishment is lining up behind Blunt, while Steelman would run as an Washington outsider and a reformer. The two have already had nasty exchanges (Steelman called Blunt "another white guy in a suit") even though Steelman has not officially entered the contest.

The bloodier the fight is for the Republican nomination, the better the chances are that Robin Carnahan will be headed off to Washington in 2011.

MO: Blunt Announces Candidacy

As expected, Rep. Roy Blunt (R-MO)announced today that he will be running for Missouri's open Senate seat in 2010.

Blunt was until recently the House minority whip and is from one of Missouri's most prominent political families. He has the support of the GOP establishment in Missouri and Washington and will start out as the front-runner for the Republican nomination.

He faces the prospect of a tough primary challenge from former state Treasurer Sarah Steelman, who has long been critical of the Republican establishment and ran a reform-minded campaign for governor in 2008, losing in the primary. If she jumped in the race, things could easily turn ugly as she would paint herself as the "outsider" while depicting Blunt as the "ultra-partisan-Washington-loving-insider."

The primary will end in mid-August of 2010, so if it is bruising, as expected, the nominee will only have less than three months to recover in time for the general election.

Whoever comes out on top in the primary will likely face Missouri's Democratic Secretary of State Robin Carnahan--also a member of a prominent Missouri political family--in the general election, who announced her candidacy at the end of January. She is expected to face little competition in the Democratic primary.

Early head-to-head polls show that Blunt does better than Steelman when matched up against Carnahan, but that could be attributed to Blunt's superior name recognition.

We should know for sure whether Steelman will jump in the race this weekend, as she is expected to make an announcement at the annual Missouri Lincoln Day event in Kansas City this weekend. Stay tuned.

UPDATE: In an interview with Politico, Steelman said that she is "in the process of laying the groundwork that I need to get done before making an official announcement," and that she is "definitely strongly leaning towards doing this."

MO: Talent is Out

Former Sen. Jim Talent (R-MO) announced yesterday that he will not be running for retiring Republican Sen. Kit Bond's Senate seat in 2010.

“There are other qualified Republicans who are seriously investigating the race, and it is vital to prevent the kind of dissension that hurt my party’s ticket so greatly in 2008,” Talent said in a statement.

Now the Republican field has essentially come down to two candidates: Rep. Roy Blunt and former state Treasurer Sarah Steelman. Blunt, who would be the state GOP's establishment pick, is set to announce his candidacy very soon. Steelman, who would be the anti-establishment candidate, is thought very likely to enter the race.

Talent’s allusion to “other qualified Republicans” means that he's not ready to take a side yet, and has not yet counted out Steelman.

Blunt has been consolidating financial and GOP establishment support the past few weeks, and has been pressuring Talent not to challenge him in the primary. Steelman, in the meantime, has wasted no time in calling Blunt "an insider," while portraying herself as an "outsider."

The Scorecard points out: "Steelman ran unsuccessfully for governor last year, but has strong support from conservatives for her vocal criticism of earmarks and wasteful spending."

If Steelman enters the race, as expected, the Republican primary will likely turn very divisive and negative. The more the attacks escalate and the more advertisement money is spent in the primary, the happier Missouri Secretary of State Robin Carnahan--the expected Democratic nominee--will be.

Steelman Likely To Run in MO; Fisher Close to a Decision in OH

In Missouri, former state Treasurer Sarah Steelman (R) is "very, very likely" to run for the Senate in 2010, according to two Republican sources close to Steelman.

If Steelman decides to run, as expected, there will be a bruising top-notch GOP primary battle between her and Rep. Roy Blunt, who is expected to announce his candidacy soon. It is clear that Blunt would have the support of the Republican establishment, and that Steelman would be the anti-establishment candidate. Former Sen. Jim Talent is also pondering running for the seat, but Blunt's people are reportedly trying to get Talent to wait his turn.

The longer and more drawn out the GOP primary battle becomes, the better it is for Missouri Secretary of State Robin Carnahan--the likely Democratic nominee--as the two Republicans spend more and more money against each other while turning increasingly negative.

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In Ohio, Lt. Gov. Lee Fisher (D) told OhioDaily that his decision on a 2010 Senate bid will come in the next 45 days.

Fisher is seen by many Democrats--including his boss, Gov. Ted Strickland--to be the strongest candidate to face off against former Rep. Rob Portman, the likely Republican nominee. Recent polls like this one and this one confirm that Fisher would probably be the strongest Democrat in the general election.

Other potential Democratic candidates include Ohio Sec. of State Jennifer Brunner and Rep. Tim Ryan.

MO: Carnahan is In

Missouri Secretary of State Robin Carnahan (D) officially announced earlier today that she will be running for the Senate in 2010 to succeed retiring Sen. Kit Bond (R-MO).

This announcement was widely anticipated, as Carnahan was thought to be the Democrats' strongest recruit to flip the seat. Politico points out that "last year, she received over 1.74 million votes in her reelection bid for Secretary of State--more votes than any other candidate in statewide history."

Carnahan comes from Missouri's most prominent Democratic family, and isn't expected to face serious (if any) opposition for the Democratic nomination.

Carnahan will likely face Rep. Roy Blunt (R-MO)--who has been gathering financial, state and national establishment support--in the general election in what will be a clash of the titans, and will make for one of the most competitive Senate races in the country.

Blunt could be significantly weakened in the primary if former state Treasurer Sarah Steelman enters the race. Steelman has already blasted Blunt as "an insider" and seems serious about running for Republican nomination.

If Blunt comes out on top, his campaign cash will be depleted and he will have been bruised by a barrage of attack from the Steelman camp portraying him as a Washington insider. If Steelman somehow magically manages to win the nomination, then she will be weakened by establishment-funded attacks and will probably fall to Carnahan in the general election. Blunt is trying to dissuade former Sen. Jim Talent (R) from entering the race, but if he jumps in, things get a lot more complicated and the Democrats will have a lot more to cheer about.

Poll: Carnahan Leads Potential GOP Candidates

Only six days after Sen. Kit Bond (R-MO) announced his retirement, PPP released the first poll for his potential successors in the 2010 election.

According to the poll, Missouri Secretary of State Robin Carnahan (D) would lead three potential Republican candidates--Rep. Roy Blunt, former Sen. Jim Talent and former state Treasurer Sarah Steelman--in Missouri's 2010 open-seat Senate race, if she decides to run. Here are the numbers.

Carnahan--45%
Blunt--44%

Carnahan--47%
Talent--43%

Carnahan--47%
Steelman--36%

These numbers show that Carnahan would start off in a strong position if she ran, even against the strongest Republican challengers, but she would not be a shoo-in by any means for the seat. Currently 45% of voters having a favorable opinion of her and 36% view her unfavorably.

Blunt, who runs the most competitively with Carnahan (most likely because of his high name recognition), is also viewed less favorably by Missourians, with only a negative favorability rating (40% view him favorably and 43% view him unfavorably).

Talent has the highest favorable rating of the three Republicans included in the poll, with 45% viewing him favorably and 39% viewing him unfavorably.

Steelman is the least known of the three, with 35% of the poll's respondents saying that they have no opinion of her either way, which means that she could potentially have room to improve her numbers once Missourians get to know her better.

But in any case, this early poll shows us that the race for this open seat will undoubtedly be very competitive.

Chris Cillizza's Top 10 to Watch in 2010

The Washington Post's Chris Cillizza has compiled a list of the top ten candidates/politicians to watch in 2010. Here are the five that are relevant to the 2010 Senate election and what Cillizza has to say about them:

• Michael Bennet: The common reaction -- even among political junkies -- when Gov. Bill Ritter (D) named Bennet as the next senator for Colorado was, "Who?" Bennet, the head of the Denver school system and the brother of Atlantic editor James Bennet, is an unknown in Washington who is likely to be overshadowed by the other two appointed Democratic senators from Illinois and New York for the first months of the 111th Congress. But, of all the appointed senators, it is Bennet who will almost certainly have the toughest challenge in holding his seat in 2010. The reviews out of Denver say Bennet is a star-in-the-making. He'll have a chance to prove it over the next two years.

• Robin Carnahan: Anyone who knows anything about Missouri politics knows the name "Carnahan." The first family of Missouri Democratic politics has experienced its share of triumph and tragedy (the death of the late Gov. Mel Carnahan and his son in a plane crash, the election of Rep. Russ Carnahan to Congress) over the last decade but 2010 seems to be shaping up as a banner year thanks to the near-certain Senate candidacy of Robin Carnahan. Carnahan currently serves as the secretary of state in Missouri and is seen by political insiders as the most talented politician the family has ever produced. While she was considering a race against Sen. Kit Bond (R) in 2010, his retirement yesterday makes a Carnahan bid almost certain.

• Paul Hodes: The conversion of New Hampshire from a swing state to a Democratic stronghold is nearly complete. In 2006 Democrats defeated both Republican members of the House; two years later Obama won by nine points at the presidential level and Jeanne Shaheen (D) knocked off Sen. John Sununu (R). The last Republican standing is Sen. Judd Gregg and Democrats are gunning for him in the form of Hodes, who, after two terms in Congress, is likely to make the race. Hodes, who is well regarded among Washington campaign sharps, might have to get past fellow Rep. Carol Shea Porter in the primary but if he does he will be an even-money bet to beat Gregg in 2010.

• Mark Kirk: If ever there was a time when Illinois Republicans could reverse their long electoral skid in statewide races, the appointment imbroglio surrounding sort-of-senator Roland Burris is it. And, if ever there was a GOP candidate who can win, it is Kirk, a moderate who has held the Democratic-leaning 10th district despite a serious of tough Democratic challenges. Kirk seems ready to make the leap for the Senate in 2010 although he could face a primary challenge in the form of Rep. Pete Roskam. Much of Kirk's chances depend on how the Burris appointment plays out. If Burris winds up being seated and running again, Kirk can make the case that he carries the taint of Blagojevich and run against the Democratic machine that has controlled Chicago politics forever. If Burris bows out in 2010 and the race is an open seat, Kirk's task is more difficult.

• Marco Rubio: With former Florida Gov. Jeb Bush out of the race for the seat of retiring Sen. Mel Martinez (R), Rubio is almost certainly in. Rubio, who served as speaker of the Florida state House from 2006 to 2008, is a fascinating potential candidate. He was the first Cuban-American to hold the top job in the state legislature and his political base in traditionally Democratic South Florida makes him someone to be reckoned with in a general election. And, for a party desperately in need of leaders who can appeal to the rapidly growing Hispanic vote across the country, Rubio may be just what Republicans at the national level have been dreaming of.

MO-Sen: Kit Bond Will Not Run for Re-Election

Sen. Kit Bond (R-MO) announced today that he will not be running for a fifth term in 2010. This is a big blow to Senate Republicans, who have already been greatly weakened by the last two election cycles and it gives the Democrats a greater chance of picking up the seat.

Senate Republicans now officially have three of their incumbents not running for reelection--Sam Brownback of Kansas, Mel Martinez of Florida, and now Kit Bond of Missouri. A fourth GOP Senator, Kay Bailey Hutchinson of Texas, is almost certain to resign her Senate seat to run for governor but has not yet made a formal announcement. It is now abundantly clear that the GOP will be in for another tough election cycle.

Recent elections show that the Democrats are gaining ground in the state--Democrat Claire McCaskill defeated then-incumbent Republican Jim Talent in the 2006 Senate election and Democrat Jay Nixon was elected governor in 2008. The state also only gave John McCain a narrow 5,000-vote victory over Barack Obama. These losses for the GOP may have indicated to Bond would be vulnerable if he ran again in 2010.

Now that Bond is backing down, there is sure to be a very competitive primary on both sides. On the Republican side, potential candidates include former House Minority Whip Roy Blunt and former Sen. Jim Talent, who are both rumored to be interested in the seat.

On the Democratic side, potentially strong candidates include Secretary of State Robin Carnahan, Rep. Russ Carnahan, and State Auditor Susan Montee. Robin Carnahan has polled well against Bond, and looks like she would be an especially strong candidate.

You can expect the candidates mentioned above among others to take a much closer look at the race now that Bond has announced that he will step down.