Some Early Voting Numbers

Here are some of the early voting numbers from battleground states (and Louisiana), courtesy of CNN:

North Carolina (as of 10/31):
Democrats: 1,092,687 (52.3%)
Republicans: 615,184 (29.6%)

Florida (as of 10/31):
Democrats: 1,532,200 (45.6%)
Republicans: 1,283,554 (38.2%)

Louisiana (as of 10/29):
Democrats: 156,084 (58.5%)
Republicans: 75,818 (28.4%)

Iowa (as of 10/29):
Democrats: 193,600 (48.3%)
Republicans: 114,637 (28.6%)

New Mexico (as of 10/30):
Democrats: 86,757 (53.4%)
Republicans: 53,490 (32.9%)

Colorado (as of 10/31):
Democrats: 488,575 (37.8%)
Republicans: 465,869 (35.9%)

So, Democrats are vastly outnumbering Republicans in early voting, even in solid red states like Louisiana. Republicans will probably come out in large numbers in states like Louisiana, North Carolina and Florida and close the gap, but these numbers are impressive for the Obama campaign and show that they have a large advantage in enthusiasm and get-out-the-vote programs.

If you want to see the numbers for all of the early voting states, click here.

Blacks Give Dems Edge in Early Florida Voting

The Miami Herald gives us a good run-down of early voting in Florida. Here are some highlights:

A huge increase in early voting has given Democrats a decided advantage over Republicans in Florida -- a major departure from statewide voting trends four years ago, according to a Miami Herald analysis of early and absentee ballots cast so far this year.

Through Thursday, Democrats cast 46 percent of the 3.4 million early and absentee votes in Florida, while Republicans cast 38 percent.

That's a big shift since 2004, when Democrats were outvoted 44 percent to 41 percent by Republicans in early and absentee ballots, according to a study of Florida voting data.

The recent Democratic gains have been most pronounced in early voting, where Democrats have outnumbered Republicans by 432,000 out of nearly two million voters.

Black voters have made the difference, accounting for 16 percent of the early and absentee voters so far -- with 86 percent of them registered Democrats. In 2004, black turnout for early and absentee voting was a bit more than 10 percent of the total.

By Thursday, early-voting numbers for the state already had smashed the total 2004 turnout by nearly 38 percent. Absentee ballots so far have also exceeded the total cast four years ago.

Already, nearly one-third of all registered Democrats and Republicans in Florida have cast a ballot. Duval elections supervisor Jerry Holland said he expects as many as 45 percent of the state's votes could be in before Election Day.

Obama Dominating Early Voting

Last week, SurveyUSA started polling in states in which some form of early voting was already underway. They asked respondents: "Have you already voted?" If the answer was yes, they asked: "For whom?"

Here are their results among early voters from five key swing states, all of which George W. Bush carried in 2004 (in parentheses are the percentages of respondents in the state who voted early):

Georgia--Obama +6 (18% voted early)
Iowa--Obama +34 (14% voted early)
New Mexico--Obama +23 (10% voted early)
North Carolina--Obama +34 (5% voted early)
Ohio--Obama +18 (12% voted early)

Remember that these numbers are only estimates and are subject to same kind of statistical inconsistencies as other polls, such as response bias and small sample sizes (the number of early voters polled in Ohio was only about 60).

In addition, early voters are probably not representative of the state as a whole. These voters tend to be more partisan and already have their minds made up, while the swing voters will probably wait until November 4 (only 1-2 percent of early voters in 2000 and 2004 reported that they would have voted differently if they'd waited until election day). So take these results with a grain of salt.

But, there is no doubt that these numbers are good news for Barack Obama. One thing that these results do show is a massive advantage for Democrats in enthusiasm and voter turnout. These results imply that, as expected, Obama is turning out his base in very large numbers, and so far it looks like John McCain is lagging in rallying up his base.

Bush carried these five states by an average of 6.5% in 2004, and now Obama leads in them by an average of 23% among early voters. That alone is reason for the Obama campaign to celebrate.

Another bit of good news that this result brings us is the fact that early voters tend to be older and more male than the voting population as a whole, factors which would seem to cut against Obama, who is strongest among women and younger voters.

From these numbers we can expect a large Democratic turnout on election day, one that McCain and the Republicans might struggle to match, affecting not only the outcome of the presidential race, but also many competitive down-ticket Congressional and Gubernatorial races in favor of the Democrats.