New Hampshire Predictions

Well, here I go again, putting my reputation on the line. The following are my predictions for tomorrow's New Hampshire primary.

Democrats:
1.) Obama 41%
2.) Clinton 32%
3.) Edwards 19%
4.) Richardson 7%
5.) Kucinich 1%
6.) Gravel 0%

Republicans:
1.) McCain 36%
2.) Romney 30%
3.) Huckabee 14%
4.) Paul 11%
5.) Giuliani 8%
6.) Thompson 3%
7.) Hunter 0%

First, I'll go through the Democrats.

Change change change change change. If I hear that word one more time, I might lose it. Barack Obama, Hillary Clinton, and John Edwards have all tried to explain to voters that they would be the best fit to bring change to America.

Well, the voters have decided. That agent of change is Barack Obama. In Iowa, the overwhelming majority supported him because of that message. Now he is leading in double digits in most recent New Hampshire polls.

Clinton just can't seem to convince people that she is the best fit to bring about change, and Edwards just has no money or northern appeal.

Let me say this right now. This is a two person race. Edwards is gone. After I saw that he did not come in first in Iowa, I knew he was a goner.

Independents should be the big story tomorrow. 44% of the likely New Hampshire voters are registered as independents, but may vote in either primary. Independents absolutely adore Obama. More so than McCain, who won New Hampshire in 2000 because of them.

They don't seem to respond to Clinton (or Edwards for that matter). And it is for this reason that I think Obama will once again surge ahead of these two and this contest won't even be close.

Edwards should finish at around 20% and Richardson will do better than expected at 7%, putting in good position for the eventual nominee's running mate.

Now, the more interesting side: the Republicans.

Let me start by saying that this race is wide open. However Mike Huckabee fares tomorrow night, he is still a prominent figure in this race because of his win in Iowa and his current lead in South Carolina.

The best case scenario for him is to come in a strong third in New Hampshire and Michigan. Then, he will be in a fairly good position to face the survivor of those two states in South Carolina.

But let's get back to New Hampshire. This is also a two person race between John McCain and Mitt Romney.

Right now, Romney has the slight edge over Republicans, but with independents factored in, McCain has a good lead. Unfortunately for Romney, independents will play a key role tomorrow.

McCain will lose the majority of independent voters to Obama tomorrow, but will still carry enough of them to slide comfortably by Mitt Romney.

Romney suddenly became the candidate of change once he landed in New Hampshire on Wednesday, and Republicans and independents alike will see right through it, like they saw through his opportunism in Iowa. He'll be rooting for Obama tomorrow night.

There is also a 3-way battle for third place among the Republicans between Mike Huckabee, Ron Paul, and Rudy Giuliani. This is what I will be watching for tomorrow night.

All of them are polling with 5 percentage points of each other, with Huckabee generally receiving the slight lead. But Paul's strong libertarian base in New Hampshire and massive fundraising ability should propel him into fourth place right behind Huckabee.

Giuliani's national campaign won't do him any good here, especially after receiving less than 4% in Iowa.

I think that Mike Gravel and maybe Duncan Hunter will drop out after tomorrow.

Those are my predictions. Hopefully my prediction success will continue.