Georgia Senate Runoff Prediction

The polls in Georgia close in a few hours, and I thought I'd give my last minute prediction--my last one until 2010--right about now. So for old time's sake, here we go.

Right now the polls have Chambliss up by about 5 points over Martin going into election day, but it is nearly impossible to run an accurate poll in a runoff election because it is very hard to predict turnout (which is supposed to be way down from November 4). But here's my prediction anyway:

Saxby Chambliss* (R)--53%
Jim Martin (D)--47%

Let's put it this way. On the day before the runoff election, Chambliss had Sarah Palin campaigning for him and Martin had the rapper Ludacris. That fact alone should speak volumes about what the outcome of this race will likely be.

Overall, the national GOP has put a lot more effort into this race, contributing money and sending Republican stars like John McCain, Mitt Romney, Mike Huckabee, Rudy Giuliani, Newt Gingrich, and of course, Sarah Palin to stump for Chambliss.

On the Democratic side, only Bill Clinton, Al Gore and Donna Brazile have made appearances for Martin.

And to be fair, the Republicans have been making a much stronger argument to Georgia voters in their attempt to "stop rampant liberalism" by preventing the Democrats from attaining that 60-seat filibuster-proof majority in the Senate.

There has been some anecdotal evidence that Martin does have a better ground game and get-out-the-vote effort than Chambliss, which is probably because hundreds of volunteers and paid campaign workers from the Obama campaign swooped down to Georgia to work for Martin right after the November 4 election.

But the bad news for Martin is the group that saved him from losing outright to Chambliss on the first election day--African Americans--have dropped off, according to polling data of early voters. 35% of early voters were African Americans in the first election because of the excitement with Obama, but now that number has dropped to 23%. That's going to be a big problem for Martin.

Martin's campaign is saying that unlike the Obama campaign's emphasis on early voting, they did not do a gigantic early and absentee voting push, instead opting for a big December 2 turnout. They had better hope so, or they really don't have a prayer.

I think that between Chambliss's argument that he's the firewall between the Democrats and their 60-seat majority, the GOP star power in Georgia, and the drop in African American turnout, Chambliss will win the seat comfortably by six points over Martin.

Since Chambliss did finish 3 points ahead of Martin on November 4, he is still the favorite, but is by no means a shoe-in. It is true that anything can happen in the runoff, and they notoriously hard to predict. But it does seem as though there is a strong motivation among Georgia Republicans to come back and win this one.

Runoffs are usually a battle of the bases, and to me, it looks like their base is more enthusiastic and will come out in larger numbers to keep their guy, Saxby Chambliss, in the Senate.

My Presidential Election Predictions

Drumroll please. Here are my final predictions for the 20 battleground states as well as the national popular vote for the presidential election. The states are listed in alphabetical order. Here we go.

Arizona (10)--
John McCain: 53%
Barack Obama: 47%
Notes: Obama will give McCain a bit of a scare here when the networks don't immediately call the state for McCain, but he will indeed carry his home state.

Colorado (9)--
Barack Obama: 52%
John McCain: 47%
Notes: Obama will benefit heavily from early voting and a hefty advantage in enthusiasm. Hispanic and younger voters will show up to the polls in unprecedented numbers here.

Florida (27)--
Barack Obama: 50%
John McCain: 49%
Notes: Barack Obama will squeak out a win in here due to the impressive and unprecedented support he received from early voting. The networks will not project this state until late in the night, making sure they do not get this state wrong again. For the record, this state along with North Carolina were the hardest states to predict the winner in.

Georgia (15)--
John McCain: 50%
Barack Obama: 48%
Notes: An incredibly large surge in African American turnout won't be enough for Obama to steal this state away from McCain, but it'll be close. However, Obama will overperform the polls here like he did in the primaries. Libertarian candidate Bob Barr will get around 2% of the vote here in his home state--the best result he will get nationwide.

Indiana (11)--
John McCain: 51%
Barack Obama: 49%
Notes: This state is too red to change hands this election cycle. The undecideds in this state will swing to McCain at the last minute, although Obama will do well in Gary County and the northwest part of the state. I also predict that there will be a small Bradley effect here.

Iowa (7)--
Barack Obama: 54%
John McCain: 45%
Notes: I don't know why the McCain campaign ever thought they could have won this state. Their candidate basically ignored the Iowa caucuses in 2000 and 2008, and he opposes subsidies for ethanol (and there are a lot of corn farmers in Iowa) while Obama basically lived here for a year before the caucuses in January.

Minnesota (10)--
Barack Obama: 55%
John McCain: 44%
Notes: The presidential race will not be close here and the networks will call it for Obama soon after the polls close at 9:00 Eastern time. The real race to watch in this state will be the three-way Senate race that could not be closer.

Missouri (11)--
John McCain: 50%
Barack Obama: 49%
Notes: This state will lose its status as a bellwether for the rest of the country. McCain will only very slightly edge out Obama here, and black voters in St. Louis and Kansas City will come out in huge numbers to support Obama.

Montana (3)--
Barack Obama: 48%
John McCain: 47%
Notes: This state will be one the biggest shockers of the night. The rain that is expected there will cause many Republicans who are indifferent to McCain to stay home. Ron Paul, who is on the ballot as the state's Constitution Party candidate will receive 4% of the vote here, while Bob Barr will get 1%. That 5% that normally would have gone to McCain will give Obama just enough to win the state's three electoral votes.

Nevada (5)--
Barack Obama: 51%
John McCain: 48%
Notes: A surge of Hispanic voters as well as massive turnout in the more liberal southern part of the state will propel Obama to victory here.

New Hampshire (4)--
Barack Obama: 53%
John McCain: 46%
Notes: A statewide Democratic sweep will occur here on election day, much like it did in 2006. New Hampshire voters' frustration and hatred of the Bush administration will overrule their affection for John McCain dating back to the 2000 Republican primaries. But McCain will outperform the polls here because of his history with the state and his "maverick" status.

New Mexico (5)--
Barack Obama: 54%
John McCain: 46%
Notes: Hispanics will be the big story here. They will come out in droves for Barack Obama by a three-to-one margin.

North Carolina (15)--
Barack Obama: 50%
John McCain: 49%
Notes: Unlike Georgia, the immense surge in African American voters will be enough for Obama to take this state away from the Republican column. Also, the enthusiasm of Obama supporters during early voting will play heavily to his advantage. This was a very tough call for me, but I refuse to second guess myself about this prediction.

North Dakota (3)--
Barack Obama: 50%
John McCain: 49%
Notes: This will be the other big election night surprise, and it will be insult to injury for John McCain. Obama will benefit heavily from same-day registration, which is one of the cornerstones of the state's voting tradition.

Ohio (20)--
Barack Obama: 51%
John McCain: 49%
Notes: Even Joe the Plumber can't save John McCain in this, the swingiest of swing states. The hard toll the economy has had on state will overrule whatever inhibitions Ohioans will have about Barack Obama. Ohio, along with Indiana, Pennsylvania, and West Virginia, will have a small Bradley effect, but it will not be significant enough to cause Obama to lose the state.

Pennsylvania (21)--
Barack Obama: 53%
John McCain: 47%
Notes: McCain's last minute all-out effort in the state, coupled with a minor Bradley effect in central and western Pennsylvania, will fall short in denying Obama the Keystone state.

South Dakota (3)--
John McCain: 53%
Barack Obama: 46%
Notes: Unlike its partner to the north, South Dakota will stay firmly in the Republican column this time around.

Virginia (13)--
Barack Obama: 52%
John McCain: 48%
Notes: Once again, the heavy African American turnout will make a huge difference in this new swing state. Obama will carry the Washington suburbs in northern Virginia by large margins and put the state's 13 electoral votes in the Democratic column for the first time since 1964.

West Virginia (5)--
John McCain: 56%
Barack Obama: 44%
Notes: Contrary to what many polls indicated, West Virginia was never in play. White voters (which make up the vast majority here) will end up voting for McCain in the end, despite their concerns about the economy. There will be a significant Bradley effect in West Virginia, a state where Obama got about a quarter of the vote during the primaries.

Wisconsin (10)--
Barack Obama: 54%
John McCain: 45%
Notes: Dissatisfaction with President Bush and Republicans in general along with Obama's progressive and populist message will cause the Democrat to win this state easily.

Final Electoral Count:
Barack Obama: 359
John McCain: 179

Final Popular Vote:
Barack Obama: 52.3%
John McCain: 47.1%
Other: 0.6%

My Senate Predictions

Here are my official and final predictions for the seven most competitive Senate races in order from the closest to the most lopsided margin of victory. An asterisk denotes an incumbent. Here goes nothing.

Minnesota--
Al Franken (D): 44%
Norm Coleman (R)*: 43%
Dean Barkley (I): 13%

Georgia--
Saxby Chambliss (R)*: 49%
Jim Martin (D): 46%
Allen Buckley (L): 5%
(Note: The failure of any candidate to reach 50% will result in a run-off election between Saxby Chambliss and Jim Martin on Dec. 4)

North Carolina--
Kay Hagan (D): 52%
Elizabeth Dole (R)*: 48%

Kentucky--
Mitch McConnell (R)*: 53%
Bruce Lunsford (D): 47%

Mississippi (Special)--
Roger Wicker (R)*: 54%
Ronnie Musgrove (D): 46%

Oregon--
Jeff Merkley (D): 53%
Gordon Smith (R)*: 44%
David Brownlow (C): 3%

New Hampshire--
Jeanne Shaheen (D): 55%
John Sununu (R)*: 44%

The New Senate:
Democrats: 57
Republicans: 41
Independents: 2

The Democrats will not reach the 60-seat threshold on election night, but in the Georgia run-off election in December, they will have an opportunity to pick up that 60th seat.

Texas and Ohio Predictions

Alright. I'm 55 for 70 so far with predictions this primary season. Here's my predictions for tomorrow's primaries in Texas, Ohio, Rhode Island, and Vermont.

Texas:
1.) Obama 52%
2.) Clinton 48%

Ohio:
1.) Clinton 53%
2.) Obama 47%

Vermont:
1.) Obama 63%
2.) Clinton 37%

Rhode Island:
1.) Clinton 54%
2.) Obama 46%

Tomorrow is the real Super Tuesday. Everything is at stake for Hillary Clinton. She's behind by over 100 delegates by most counts, and Barack Obama has all of the momentum.

This is visible in the polls where her lead in the polls in Ohio and Texas--her supposed firewall states--are now within the margin of error. In most Texas polls, she has been overtaken by Obama.

This is also visible in the massive shift of superdelegates towards Obama's side since his Potomac Primary victories. Superdelegates such as Rep. John Lewis have switched from Clinton to Obama, and many more are under immense pressure to do so.

She needs to win big in both states tomorrow to get some momentum and delegates back. And with each day, that's looking less and less likely. So here's the thinking behind my predictions.

The Texas primary should be pretty even. Obama should carry about 85% of the black vote, Clinton should carry about 60% of the Latino vote, and whites should be pretty even leaning slightly to Clinton.

That should all balance out to about a tie. But then comes the caucus. Texas has this bizarre and complicated voting system where you can vote twice if you so wish: in the primary and the caucus. And you can only vote in the caucus if you've already voted in the primary. Yikes.

But given the strength Obama has shown in caucuses--especially in the West--he should win that with a decent margin, giving him the overall majority and should allow him to come away with the most delegates.

Now, on to Ohio. This state is tailor-made for Clinton. Despite Obama's momentum, I think she will carry the state by a small margin but the delegate split will be about even.

Here's why I think she'll win. I think she'll do well with lower income voters, and Ohio has plenty of them.

I also think although most of the major unions have endorsed Obama, the endorsements don't have as much sway with voting as they used to. For example, Obama got almost all of the union endorsements in Nevada--a state with plenty of unions--and he lost.

I also think that Gov. Ted Strickland's endorsement will help with her grassroots operations because he has so many people at his disposal. This will especially help in the rural southeast part of the state that she needs to carry.

Vermont should go heavily for Obama because it is progressive, liberal, and just a perfect state for Obama.

Rhode Island is more like Massachusetts. It will tilt towards Clinton but will not produce a large enough margin to really make a difference in the delegate count.

So here it is again. Texas and Vermont go to Obama; Ohio and Rhode Island go to Clinton. The overall delegate count won't change much, in face it will probably tilt more towards Obama.

Clinton will stay in the race despite not achieving the big wins she needed to get in order to weaken Obama's margin in the delegate count.

Super Tuesday Predictions

I know it's a lot, and it'll probably be very wrong, but here are my predictions for the 43 contests taking place tomorrow night.

Democrats: (2,075)
Alabama (60)--Obama
Alaska (18)--Obama
Arizona (67)--Obama
Arkansas (47)--Clinton
California (441)--Obama
Colorado (71)--Obama
Connecticut (60)--Obama
Delaware (23)--Clinton
Georgia (103)--Obama
Idaho (23)--Obama
Illinois (185)--Obama
Kansas (41)--Obama
Massachusetts (121)--Clinton
Minnesota (88)--Obama
Missouri (88)--Clinton
New Jersey (127)--Clinton
New Mexico (38)--Clinton
New York (281)--Clinton
North Dakota (21)--Clinton
Oklahoma (47)--Clinton
Tennessee (85)--Clinton
Utah (29)--Clinton

Republicans: (1,081)
Alabama (48)--McCain
Alaska (29)--McCain
Arizona (53)--McCain
Arkansas (34)--Huckabee
California (173)--McCain
Colorado (46)--Romney
Connecticut (30)--McCain
Delaware (18)--McCain
Georgia (72)--Huckabee
Illinois (70)--McCain
Massachusetts (43)--Romney
Minnesota (41)--McCain
Missouri (58)--McCain
Montana (25)--Romney
New Jersey (52)--McCain
New York (101)--McCain
North Dakota (26)--McCain
Oklahoma (41)--McCain
Tennessee (55)--McCain
Utah (36)--Romney
West Virginia (30)--McCain

So first, the more exciting race: the Democrats.

I think we'll see a pretty even delegate split after tomorrow, and the race will go on for a very long time.

Overall, I think Barack Obama will carry most of the red states such as Alabama, Colorado, Georgia, Alaska, and Kansas tomorrow night. He has a lot of crossover appeal, especially in those states.

Hillary Clinton should carry most of the blue states, and will compete in all the places that Obama wins, giving her plenty of delegates.

I think that the states that will have the most impact tomorrow are the ones with the most delegates. Duh. But each state is different within this category.

For instance, Illinois is an Obama stronghold and has lots of delegates. Obama needs to crush Hillary there and take a strong majority of those delegates.

The same goes in New York and New Jersey for Hillary. The bigger the margin of victory, the more delegates for her, and the less for Obama. Big wins in these states could give one candidate a clear advantage going into Wednesday.

But California is the big wild card. A few weeks ago, it was thought to be Hillary country, but new polls show that Obama has come close, tied, or passed Hillary in the biggest state to vote tomorrow.

I personally think that Obama will win there, and that his current momentum will be evident when the votes are tallied tomorrow. But I don't think he'll win by much, and the delegate total will be pretty much even. But if either candidate can pull off a big win there, then they will have a clear advantage going forward.

Remember to keep your eye on the delegate total tomorrow, not on the percentages or who wins what state. In the end, delegates alone are the key to the nomination.

Now, the Republicans. I think this is much more boring, because as soon as John McCain won Florida, he won the nomination.

I predict that he will win across the board, save a few states that demographically favor his rivals. Those states being Arkansas and Georgia for Mike Huckabee, and Massachusetts, Utah, Colorado, and Montana for Mitt Romney.

McCain should rack up plenty of delegates, leaving both Romney and Huckabee in the dust going into February 6th. After tomorrow, McCain will be the clear nominee for the Republican party.

Florida Prediction (GOP)

Republicans:
1.) Romney 33%
2.) McCain 31%
3.) Giuliani 18%
4.) Huckabee 14%
5.) Paul 4%
6.) Hunter 0%

I have a feeling that this will be a very close race, but I think that Mitt Romney will win in Florida tomorrow night for these reasons:

1.) The economy is in shambles right now. There is massive panic about the stock market, the mortgage crisis, and growing fear of a recession.

This just happens to be Mitt Romney's favorite issue. As a business executive, and as the man responsible for turning around the financially doomed 2002 Winter Olympics, Floridians will see him as the best candidate to fix the economy.

John McCain knows this, so recently he's tried to take Florida's attention off of the economy, and onto Iraq, his strong suit. In the end, I think the voters will go with the economy, and thus, Romney.

2.) Florida is having a closed primary, meaning that independents won't be allowed to vote, which will hurt McCain.

3.) Money. Romney has outspent McCain by a ton in Florida, which means more air time, which means a more direct appeal to more voters in this very large state.

4.) Giuliani. He and McCain are battling over largely the same voting block: moderates and foreign policy conservative. I think that Giuliani will siphon off enough of those supporters and will cost McCain the victory.

Things to watch for:
-Exit polling on what is the most important issue to voters
-The Giuliani factor
-Results from absentee ballots (should benefit Romney and Giuliani)

South Carolina Prediction (Dem)

Democrats:
1.) Obama 47%
2.) Clinton 38%
3.) Edwards 15%

This shouldn't be too close of a contest. Barack Obama will run away with the African American vote, and Hillary will do well with the whites.

John Edwards kind of gets ignored in this whole discussion, and I think most voters have already ruled him out as a viable option. If he doesn't reach 15%, expect him to consider dropping out.

Even if Obama wins, it won't help him all that much because he was expected to win. Hillary will spin it as the blacks coming out and supporting one of their own.

She will still have the advantage on Super Tuesday, even if she loses by a lot. She has been running much more of a national campaign than Obama and has the name recognition and the establishment behind her.

Something big would have to happen to make her the underdog going into February 5th.

South Carolina Prediction (GOP)

Here's my South Carolina Republican primary prediction.

Republicans:
1.) McCain 30%
2.) Huckabee 28%
3.) Thompson 18%
4.) Romney 15%
5.) Paul 5%
6.) Giuliani 4%

This one is a toughie. It's a lot harder to call than the Democratic primary.

McCain now has the support of the establishment that was against him in his crippling 2004 loss here. His war hero past and his experience in foreign policy will turn out a lot of veterans and other South Carolinians to vote for him.

However, I think that he will do poorly among evangelicals. That's where Mike Huckabee comes in.

He should rack up most of the evangelical vote--about 62% of the South Carolina Republican electorate--and should convert some people who are looking for a radical change to the tax system after all of this talk of recession.

McCain should edge out Huckabee, but expect it to be close. It could go either way.

Even though Romney is ceding South Carolina to his three competitors, he should finish in a distant fourth, right behind Fred Thompson.

This loss won't really affect the Romney campaign because he didn't really compete here. Thompson will drop out and probably endorse McCain. Although Huckabee won't win, he will finish close enough to first to battle on in Florida, and probably on Super Tuesday.

Should he win tomorrow, McCain will be in a good position in Florida and the delegate-rich states that vote on Super Tuesday.

Nevada Predictions

Here are my predictions for the Nevada caucuses that take place tomorrow.

Democrats:
1.) Obama 40%
2.) Clinton 37%
3.) Edwards 22%
4.) Kucinich 1%

Republicans:
1.) Romney 35%
2.) McCain 28%
3.) Huckabee 15%
4.) Paul 9%
5.) Giuliani 8%
6.) Thompson 5%

On the Democratic side, it's about two things: unions and Latinos. Hillary Clinton and Barack Obama (and John Edwards) have been vying for these votes that make up so much of the constituency of Nevada Democrats.

Obama has received the most union backing thus far, followed by Clinton, then Edwards. The union workers should give Obama a big boost tomorrow.

However, I think that Clinton will carry the majority of the Latino vote because of her strong ties to that community. In addition, the Latino community, whether they admit or not, may be uncomfortable voting for a black because of the hushed racial tension between them.

Now, there are many Latino union workers, which I think in the end, will ally themselves with their union rather than their views on race. Thus, Obama should win--but not by much.

On the Republican side, this race has been vastly overshadowed by the South Carolina primary taking place on the same day. Mitt Romney and Ron Paul are the only candidates who campaigned there. The rest are focused on winning South Carolina.

Mitt Romney has basically ceded South Carolina to John McCain, Mike Huckabee, and Fred Thompson and is focused on the state that everyone is ignoring (Nevada actually has more delegates than South Carolina).

Being the only real first-tier candidate to campaign here, and with the help of Mormons in the eastern part of the state, Mitt Romney should win here tomorrow--pretty handily.

My Michigan Prediction (GOP)

Here are my predictions for tomorrow's Michigan Republican Primary.

Republicans:
1.) McCain 35%
2.) Romney 32%
3.) Huckabee 17%
4.) Giuliani 6%
5.) Paul 6%
6.) Thompson 4%

Despite Romney's first two losses, he and McCain should finish neck and neck here.

The economy is the hot button issue among Michigan Republicans. Michigan's economy is very reliant upon the automobile industry and is getting hit hard by the mortgage crisis.

Also, Michigan now has the highest unemployment rate in the country, at 7.4%. There is much concern about the Michigan's economy and the fear of job loss and further recession in the state.

Mitt Romney may have roots in Michigan, but his appeal among Michigan Republicans is his expertise and experience on the economy is the driving force behind his campaign here.

However, I think that McCain's momentum from New Hampshire will prove to be insurmountable.

Among Republicans, it should be a fairly even split between the two.

But Democrats and independents--who tend to side with McCain--may prove to be a factor because the Democratic National Committee stripped Michigan of all of its delegates because it moved its primary ahead of February 5th without permission. This means that many Democrats and independents alike are likely to vote in the Republican primary.

I think that their vote will give McCain enough of an edge to defeat Romney, who will have a tough time recovering after winning his third "silver."

Mike Huckabee, who does not have too much appeal among Michigan Republicans, should finish in a solid third, while Rudy Giuliani and Ron Paul will duke it out for a distant fourth.

Huckabee, however, should be rooting for Romney--his sworn enemy from Iowa--tomorrow night. A Romney win means a McCain loss, which is just what Huckabee needs going into South Carolina. The two are essentially tied there according to the most recent polls.

Right now my gut is telling me Romney will win and my brain is telling me McCain will win.

But if Romney wins tomorrow, this race will be even more wide open than it already is.

New Hampshire Predictions

Well, here I go again, putting my reputation on the line. The following are my predictions for tomorrow's New Hampshire primary.

Democrats:
1.) Obama 41%
2.) Clinton 32%
3.) Edwards 19%
4.) Richardson 7%
5.) Kucinich 1%
6.) Gravel 0%

Republicans:
1.) McCain 36%
2.) Romney 30%
3.) Huckabee 14%
4.) Paul 11%
5.) Giuliani 8%
6.) Thompson 3%
7.) Hunter 0%

First, I'll go through the Democrats.

Change change change change change. If I hear that word one more time, I might lose it. Barack Obama, Hillary Clinton, and John Edwards have all tried to explain to voters that they would be the best fit to bring change to America.

Well, the voters have decided. That agent of change is Barack Obama. In Iowa, the overwhelming majority supported him because of that message. Now he is leading in double digits in most recent New Hampshire polls.

Clinton just can't seem to convince people that she is the best fit to bring about change, and Edwards just has no money or northern appeal.

Let me say this right now. This is a two person race. Edwards is gone. After I saw that he did not come in first in Iowa, I knew he was a goner.

Independents should be the big story tomorrow. 44% of the likely New Hampshire voters are registered as independents, but may vote in either primary. Independents absolutely adore Obama. More so than McCain, who won New Hampshire in 2000 because of them.

They don't seem to respond to Clinton (or Edwards for that matter). And it is for this reason that I think Obama will once again surge ahead of these two and this contest won't even be close.

Edwards should finish at around 20% and Richardson will do better than expected at 7%, putting in good position for the eventual nominee's running mate.

Now, the more interesting side: the Republicans.

Let me start by saying that this race is wide open. However Mike Huckabee fares tomorrow night, he is still a prominent figure in this race because of his win in Iowa and his current lead in South Carolina.

The best case scenario for him is to come in a strong third in New Hampshire and Michigan. Then, he will be in a fairly good position to face the survivor of those two states in South Carolina.

But let's get back to New Hampshire. This is also a two person race between John McCain and Mitt Romney.

Right now, Romney has the slight edge over Republicans, but with independents factored in, McCain has a good lead. Unfortunately for Romney, independents will play a key role tomorrow.

McCain will lose the majority of independent voters to Obama tomorrow, but will still carry enough of them to slide comfortably by Mitt Romney.

Romney suddenly became the candidate of change once he landed in New Hampshire on Wednesday, and Republicans and independents alike will see right through it, like they saw through his opportunism in Iowa. He'll be rooting for Obama tomorrow night.

There is also a 3-way battle for third place among the Republicans between Mike Huckabee, Ron Paul, and Rudy Giuliani. This is what I will be watching for tomorrow night.

All of them are polling with 5 percentage points of each other, with Huckabee generally receiving the slight lead. But Paul's strong libertarian base in New Hampshire and massive fundraising ability should propel him into fourth place right behind Huckabee.

Giuliani's national campaign won't do him any good here, especially after receiving less than 4% in Iowa.

I think that Mike Gravel and maybe Duncan Hunter will drop out after tomorrow.

Those are my predictions. Hopefully my prediction success will continue.

Iowa Predictions

My guess is really as good as anyone's as to who wins in Iowa. And it is very likely that I will be horribly wrong, but following this race very closely, here are my predictions for the January 3rd Iowa Caucuses.

Democrats
1.) Obama 31%
2.) Edwards 29%
3.) Clinton 28%
4.) Richardson 6%
5.) Biden 5%
6.) Dodd 1%
7.) Kucinich 0%
8.) Gravel 0%

Republicans
1.) Huckabee 31%
2.) Romney 29%
3.) McCain 13%
4.) Thompson 12%
5.) Paul 9%
6.) Giuliani 6%
7.) Hunter 0%

Both races will be extremely close, and the results will be a matter of turnout. I think that turnout will be larger than expected in Iowa--over 150,000 the Democratic side and about 100,000 on the Republican side.

I predict that Barack Obama will win Iowa by a very small margin over John Edwards and Hillary Clinton.

Independents and first-time caucus goers will show up in droves for Obama, catapulting him to first place. Edwards will finish a close second second because of the wide support he will receive as the second choice of also-ran candidates like Bill Richardson, Joe Biden, and Chris Dodd.

Kucinich supporters will caucus for Obama and he'll still do very will as a second choice candidate.

Both Obama and Edwards have gained momentum recently in Iowa, which definitely counts in Iowa--demonstrated by Kerry's come-from-behind win in 2004.

Clinton will do well after the first round of voting, but will fall into third place after the second choices of also-rans are counted. The high turnout of independents and young voters will hurt her and help the other two.

Richardson will come in a very distant fourth, followed closely by Biden, then Dodd. They will drop out after New Hampshire.

On the Republican side, I predict that the high turnout will favor Mike Huckabee and he will win in Iowa. First-time caucus goers will support him in great numbers and he will edge out Mitt Romney in Iowa.

Iowa Republicans are very concerned about character and social issues. They like Huckabee more in both of those categories and will give him enough votes to win. In the past, social issues candidates have fared well here.

He is also more likable than Romney and is more similar to most Iowans.

Mitt Romney, despite vastly outspending Huckabee, will finish in a close second here. The high turnout will hurt him badly here.

John McCain will edge out Fred Thompson for third because of his strong patriotism and consistency with the surge in Iraq and other major issues.

Ron Paul will get an surprising 9% in Iowa putting him just behind McCain and Thompson.

Like I said, these predictions are just about as good as anyone's, because both of these races are so close. We'll see how close I come to being right.