FL: Mack Won't Run For Senate

Rep. Connie Mack (R-FL) wrote a letter to Florida Gov. Charlie Crist (R) today informing him that he will not be running for the state's open Senate seat in 2010, according to the Associated Press.

Crist is openly considering running for the seat next year instead of seeking re-election as governor, and Mack had been one the top Florida Republicans publicly taking a look at jumping in--but instead, he is throwing his full support behind Crist.

Mack wrote to Crist: "I will be your strongest supporter and champion -- regardless of whether you seek re-election or election to the Senate."

This further fuels the speculation that Crist is indeed planning on running for Senate rather than for another term in Tallahassee. The only Republican who might stand up to Crist in the GOP primary is former state House Speaker Marco Rubio, who formed an exploratory committee earlier this month. But he has said earlier that if Crist jumped in the race, he would probably run for governor.

Whether it is Rubio or somebody else, Crist--if he runs--will almost undoubtedly face some sort of opposition from the right in the Republican primary, as he has been getting a bit chummy with President Obama and the left of late.

Thursday Afternoon Tidbits

Florida: Former Florida House Speaker Marco Rubio (R) "has formed an exploratory committee to prepare running for the Senate, becoming the first credible Republican candidate to formally prepare for a campaign to succeed retiring Sen. Mel Martinez," the Scorecard reports. Of course, Rubio and other top Republicans considering running for the open seat--such as Reps. Connie Mack and Vern Buchanan--will wait until popular Gov. Charlie Crist (R) announces if he is running for the seat before making an official move of their own. Crist has said that he will not make his decision until May, but if he does jump into the Senate race, expect the primary field to clear for him--and expect Rubio, along with other top Florida Republicans, to run for governor.

Illinois: The Hill reports that former Commerce Secretary William Daley (D) is strongly leaning towards running for Sen. Roland Burris' (D) seat in 2010. Daley's brother is the mayor of Chicago, so he would instantly have establishment support--but he would also bear the burden of the Chicago machine. If he enters the race, he will face off against state Treasurer Alexi Giannoulias (D) and possibly Burris himself in the Democratic primary, so while he would start off as a front-runner, he would by no means be shoo-in to win the nomination. Rep. Jan Schakowsky (D) has also not yet ruled out a run, but she was more keen on the idea of running in a special election, which is looking less and less likely.

New York-B: Rep. Steve Israel is yet another downstate Democrat that is considering challenging Sen. Kirsten Gillibrand in a Democratic primary, according to the New York Times. Israel joins Rep. Carolyn Maloney, Rep. Carolyn McCarthy and Manhattan Borough President Scott Stringer, who are all openly considering bids for 2010.

Wednesday Night Updates

Nevada: Former Rep. Jon Porter (R) has reportedly taken a new, high-paying job at a lobbying firm. Porter has often been mentioned as a potential challenger to Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid (D) in 2010, but this new gig may be a sign that Porter wants out of elected office for good (tip: Senate Guru)

Utah: State Attorney General Mark Shurtleff (R) appears to be laying the foundation for a primary challenge to incumbent Sen. Bob Bennett (R) next year. He met with fundraisers today in D.C. to discuss his fundraising capabilities--he has not formally announced his candidacy but will make a final decision soon. All of the buzz surrounding this race is in the GOP primary, as whoever goes on to win the nomination will undoubtedly go on to win the general election--this is Utah after all.

Florida: Bill Clinton will hold a second fundraiser for Rep. Kendrick Meek (D), who is running for the open Senate seat in Florida. He will be squaring off against state Sen. Dan Gelber and North Miami Mayor Kevin Burns in the Democratic primary. We are still waiting to hear from Tampa Mayor Pam Iorio and Rep. Ron Klein on their plans for 2010--I missed this last week, but Klein said that he plans on running for reelection to his current seat at this point, but is leaving his options open for a Senate bid.

California/Wisconsin: Sen. Barbara Boxer (D-CA) and Sen. Russ Feingold's (D-WI) approval ratings took nose dives this month in SurveyUSA's monthly 50-state tracking poll. Boxer looks like she's safe for her 2010 reelection bid unless Gov. Arnold Schwarzenegger (R) or businesswoman Carly Fiorina (R) run against her, but their entries seem unlikely at this point (Schwarzenegger has shown no interest in the race, while Fiorina just underwent surgery for breast cancer). In Wisconsin, Feingold seems more vulnerable, and the Republican name that is floated around the most to challenge Feingold--up-and-comer Rep. Paul Ryan--might just be encouraged enough by these numbers to jump in the race.

FL: Fate of Seat Lies With Crist

A new Strategic Vision poll confirms that Gov. Charlie Crist (R-FL) is only candidate in either party who could move this race into the safe column--and that if he wants the seat, it is his for the taking. If he decides to run for another term as governor, this race will sink into complete chaos, as none of the other potential candidates have any kind of statewide name recognition.

Republican Primary with Crist: If Crist runs, he would get 54% of the Republican vote, while his close competitor--Rep. Connie Mack--would get 16%.

Republican Primary without Crist: If Crist stays out, Mack leads the pack with 21%, followed by Rep. Vern Buchanan (11%), former state House Speaker Allen Bense (8%), and another former state House Speaker Marco Rubio (5%). The most important number here is that 55% of Republicans say they are undecided.

Democratic Primary: The four candidates tested--Rep. Ron Klein, Tampa Mayor Pam Iorio, Rep. Kendrick Meek, and state Sen. Dan Gelber--all have very low name recognition, and 66% of respondents say they are undecided. That said, Klein gets 12%, Meek gets 10%, Iorio gets 8%, and Gelber gets 4%.

General Election: The poll also tested 20 general election match-ups, which followed a similiar pattern. Here is a table from Campaign Diaries that makes things clearer. The Republican's number comes first.

	Crist	Mack	Buchanan	Bense	Rubio
Klein	58-24	32-27	24-28	22-27	18-29
Iorio	57-29	32-30	26-30	24-30	19-32
Meek	60-26	35-25	29-23	28-21	26-24
Gelber	58-27	33-27	23-20	27-25	17-22

Here's what Campaign Diaries gathered from these results:

• Not only does Charlie Crist have huge leads (between 28% and 34%), he is also hovering around 58% - a high number that makes it hard to see how Democrats could defeat him. (That does not mean that Democrats should dread the prospect of his candidacy. For Crist to run for Senate would create a highly competitive gubernatorial election, and that would have huge consequences for redistricting and for next decade’s House races.)

• Connie Mack looks to be a highly competitive competitor, as he beats all four Democrats - though one of the match-ups leaves him within the margin of error.

• Both Pam Iorio and Ron Klein have relatively good numbers, as they edge out three of the five Republicans - including Rep. Vern Buchanan. Pam Iorio’s numbers are particularly encouraging, since she is the only Democrat to hold Mack within the margin of error and to hold Crist under… 30%.

• Marco Rubio, Allen Bense and Dan Gelber: All are state legislators, and in a state as large as Florida it is not realistic to expect them to be known by a wide public - and it’s very hard to make much of their results.

• Kendrick Meek is the only contender to lose every single one of his match-ups, and that is a particularly dreadful result given that two of his opponents are state legislators. Compared to fellow Rep. Ron Klein, for instance, Meek underperforms by 12% against Bense and 13% against Rubio! That he even loses against Marco Rubio should be particularly worrisome to Meek.

FL: Crist Considers Senate Bid

Roll Call is reporting that Florida's popular Republican governor, Charlie Crist, is "giving serious consideration to running for Senate." Crist, if he entered the race, would be running to replace the retiring Sen. Mel Martinez (R-FL) in 2010.

Crist already "has had multiple serious conversations about running for Senate with both Martinez and National Republican Senatorial Committee Chairman John Cornyn," so it looks like he's really seriously considering running. Also, the Democratic field is looking fairly weak now that the Democrats' top recruit, state CFO Alex Sink, opted out of running for the Senate seat.

Crist may be emboldened to run for the seat after looking at Research 2000's latest poll, which shows that he has astronomical favorables and that he would crush any primary and general election opposition.

The other top potential Republican contenders--namely former state House Speaker Marco Rubio and Rep. Connie Mack--are widely thought to be waiting for Crist to announce what he is doing before deciding their own plans for 2010.

Right now, I have this open Florida race categorized as a "Toss-Up", but if Crist entered the race it would quickly change to "Safe GOP." The seat is his for the taking. If he opts out, the Republican primary will be a free-for-all. The only question is: will he be willing to give up the governor's mansion so soon when he could easily be reelected to that position in the same year?

Politico's Josh Kraushaar reports that several Florida Republican operatives are saying that a Crist Senate run is unlikely, "but no one would close the door on the possibility."

Florida Republican party chairman Jim Greer said that Crist won't make any decisions until May.

FL: Boyd, McCollum Not Running

Rep. Allen Boyd (D-FL) and state Attorney General Bill McCollum (R-FL) announced today that they will not be running for the open Senate seat in Florida in 2010.

Now that Boyd is out the of running, the remaining Democrats interested in the seat are Rep. Kendrick Meek and state Sen. Dan Gelber (who have both announced their candidacies), and Rep. Ron Klein and Tampa Mayor Pam Iorio (who are still mulling runs).

On the Republican side, McCollum--who has lost two previous Senate bids--was thought to be one of the top three contenders for the nomination, but now it looks like there could be a battle between the other two: former state House Speaker Marco Rubio and Rep. Connie Mack. "Neither candidate has officially announced their candidacy, but both are preparing campaigns behind the scene," Politico reports.

FL: Poll Shows No Clear Favorite in Either Party

A new poll from Quinnipiac confirms that the Florida Senate race remains a wide-open contest:

The decision by CFO Sink to walk away from the Senate race leaves a wide open scramble for the Democrat nomination. Because the survey was in the field when she announced her decision not to run, she was left on the list from which respondents were asked to choose for the rest of the polling. In a trial heat among Democratic candidates, she gets 15 percent, while U.S. Rep. Kendrick Meek has 13 percent, followed by U.S. Rep. Ron Klein at 9 percent, U.S. Rep. Allen Boyd with 8 percent and State Sen. Dan Gelber at 1 percent. Even with a ballot that includes Sink, 54 percent of registered Democrats say they do not have a candidate.

In the Republican trial heat, McCollum gets 22 percent to Mack's 21 percent, with 10 percent for U.S. Rep. Vern Buchanan, 6 percent for former Florida House Speaker Marco Rubio, 2 percent for former Florida House Speaker Allan Bense, and 40 percent undecided.

Its far too early to take these numbers very seriously, because in the end the nominees of both parties will be the ones who can raise enough money and get the most support to run the best statewide race. But as of right now, we have no idea who is favored to be the nominee of either party will be, let alone who is favored in the general election.

FL: Sink Rules Out Run

In a major blow to the DSCC, state CFO Alex Sink (D) announced Friday morning that she would not run for Florida's open Senate seat in 2010. In her announcement she announced that she had ruled out a run for governor and she will seek reelection for her current position.

Sink clearly would have been the strongest candidate on the Democratic side, and Florida Republicans were openly afraid of her potential candidacy, especially after Jeb Bush announced that he wouldn't run. She was thought to be the only Democrat who could have cleared a divisive primary field. Now it looks like the race is wide open on both sides.

On the Democratic side, Rep. Kendrick Meek and state Sen. Dan Gelber have already announced their candidacies, setting up a primary challenge--but potential candidates like Reps. Ron Klein and Allen Boyd (who says he's very close to making a decision about running) are still considering bids.

On the Republican side, former state House Speaker Marco Rubio and Attorney General Bill McCollum are the most often mentioned as potential candidates--and now they might be more likely to run now that Sink has ruled out a run.

FL-Sen: Kendrick Meek Will Run

Rep. Kendrick Meek (D-FL) officially announced earlier today that he will be running for retiring Sen. Mel Martinez's (R-FL) Senate seat.

He is the first Democrat to enter the race, while most other prominent Democrats in the state--namely Reps. Allen Boyd and Ron Klein--are waiting on state CFO Alex Sink to announce her intentions for 2010. If Sink runs, she will face a primary challenge from Meek, who will be a probably mount a competitive campaign.

Meek has already hired some talent to his campaign in the form of Steve Hildebrand, Barack Obama's deputy national campaign manager and the former political director of the DSCC. It is clear that he is very serious about running and should not be taken lightly by Sink or any other Democratic candidates.

Chris Cillizza's Top 10 to Watch in 2010

The Washington Post's Chris Cillizza has compiled a list of the top ten candidates/politicians to watch in 2010. Here are the five that are relevant to the 2010 Senate election and what Cillizza has to say about them:

• Michael Bennet: The common reaction -- even among political junkies -- when Gov. Bill Ritter (D) named Bennet as the next senator for Colorado was, "Who?" Bennet, the head of the Denver school system and the brother of Atlantic editor James Bennet, is an unknown in Washington who is likely to be overshadowed by the other two appointed Democratic senators from Illinois and New York for the first months of the 111th Congress. But, of all the appointed senators, it is Bennet who will almost certainly have the toughest challenge in holding his seat in 2010. The reviews out of Denver say Bennet is a star-in-the-making. He'll have a chance to prove it over the next two years.

• Robin Carnahan: Anyone who knows anything about Missouri politics knows the name "Carnahan." The first family of Missouri Democratic politics has experienced its share of triumph and tragedy (the death of the late Gov. Mel Carnahan and his son in a plane crash, the election of Rep. Russ Carnahan to Congress) over the last decade but 2010 seems to be shaping up as a banner year thanks to the near-certain Senate candidacy of Robin Carnahan. Carnahan currently serves as the secretary of state in Missouri and is seen by political insiders as the most talented politician the family has ever produced. While she was considering a race against Sen. Kit Bond (R) in 2010, his retirement yesterday makes a Carnahan bid almost certain.

• Paul Hodes: The conversion of New Hampshire from a swing state to a Democratic stronghold is nearly complete. In 2006 Democrats defeated both Republican members of the House; two years later Obama won by nine points at the presidential level and Jeanne Shaheen (D) knocked off Sen. John Sununu (R). The last Republican standing is Sen. Judd Gregg and Democrats are gunning for him in the form of Hodes, who, after two terms in Congress, is likely to make the race. Hodes, who is well regarded among Washington campaign sharps, might have to get past fellow Rep. Carol Shea Porter in the primary but if he does he will be an even-money bet to beat Gregg in 2010.

• Mark Kirk: If ever there was a time when Illinois Republicans could reverse their long electoral skid in statewide races, the appointment imbroglio surrounding sort-of-senator Roland Burris is it. And, if ever there was a GOP candidate who can win, it is Kirk, a moderate who has held the Democratic-leaning 10th district despite a serious of tough Democratic challenges. Kirk seems ready to make the leap for the Senate in 2010 although he could face a primary challenge in the form of Rep. Pete Roskam. Much of Kirk's chances depend on how the Burris appointment plays out. If Burris winds up being seated and running again, Kirk can make the case that he carries the taint of Blagojevich and run against the Democratic machine that has controlled Chicago politics forever. If Burris bows out in 2010 and the race is an open seat, Kirk's task is more difficult.

• Marco Rubio: With former Florida Gov. Jeb Bush out of the race for the seat of retiring Sen. Mel Martinez (R), Rubio is almost certainly in. Rubio, who served as speaker of the Florida state House from 2006 to 2008, is a fascinating potential candidate. He was the first Cuban-American to hold the top job in the state legislature and his political base in traditionally Democratic South Florida makes him someone to be reckoned with in a general election. And, for a party desperately in need of leaders who can appeal to the rapidly growing Hispanic vote across the country, Rubio may be just what Republicans at the national level have been dreaming of.

FL-Sen: CFO Alex Sink Ponders Senate Run

From Campaign Diaries:

Former Governor Jeb Bush’s decision not to run for Florida’s open Senate race has freed up other Republicans who are now considering a bid; but Democrats are still waiting for their towering figure, state CFO Alex Sink. The latest speculation was sparked by an interview Sink gave to St. Petersburg Times. She notes that “open seats like this don’t come around very often” and describes herself as “very strongly considering” running. It would be hard to blame the DSCC if they got excited by such comments, and it does sound like Sink is leaning towards a run.

FL-Sen: Jeb Bush Will Not Run

To the surprise of myself and countless other political pundits, former Florida Gov. Jeb Bush announced today that he will not run for retiring Sen. Mel Martinez's seat in 2010, the AP reports.

Bush said, "now is not the right time to return to elected office."

This announcement clears the field for several other prominent potential Republican candidates such as state House Speaker Marco Rubio, state Attorney General Bill McCollum, and state Senate President Jeff Atwater--who were all thought unlikely to announce their candidacies if Bush had decided to run.

Now, the primary on the Republican side should prove to be messy and as of now there is no clear favorite. The DSCC is trying to get state CFO Alex Sink to run, who will now probably be more likely to throw her hat in the ring now that Bush has made it clear he will not run.

Bush was thought to be the Republicans' strongest candidate, and they were openly hoping that he would run. Democrats are sure to be rejoicing as a result of this latest development, as their chance of flipping this seat has just increased greatly.