Check out my rundown of the 2010 Senate races here

Saturday, May 9, 2009

House Recruitment Updates: 5/9

CA-47: Republicans are trying to go where they have not (recently) gone before, and targeting Democratic-leaning districts such as Loretta Sanchez's. The NRCC has recruited state Assemblyman Van Tran--who is Vietnamese--to run against Sanchez, in this heavily Vietnamese district. But Tran got off to a bad start, as he kicked off his campaign in the wrong district--CA-46.

OR-04: Following along those lines, the GOP has recruited Springfield Mayor Sid Leiken (R) to challenge Rep. Pete DeFazio (D). At this point, DeFazio does not look vulnerable, but he has not been seriously challenged in a long time (he ran unopposed in 2008). He is also reportedly considering running for governor, so the prospect of a tough challenger may nudge DeFazio in the direction of a gubernatorial run--and an open seat in this D+2 district would be a good pick-up opportunity for the GOP.

MN-06: Many Democrats are ready to pounce to get another go at ultra-conservative Rep. Michele Bachmann (R) in 2010, and two Democrats jumped in the race this week. The first is Elwyn Tinklenberg, the 2008 Democratic candidate who massively benefited financially from a series of inflammatory remarks that Bachmann made. The other Democrat that entered the race this week was Maureen Reed, the 2006 Independence Party candidate for Lieutenant Governor. The DCCC is not prepared to back either candidate, and expressed joy in the entries of both Democrats in the race against Bachmann.

CO-04: Republicans landed a credible challenger against vulnerable freshman Rep. Betsy Markey (D) in the form of state House Minority Leader Cory Gardner. But he will not have the primary field to himself, as University of Colorado Regent Tom Lucero has already entered the race.

ID-01: To the disappointment of the Idaho GOP, state Treasurer Ron Crane has opted out of a run against very vulnerable freshman Rep. Walt Minnick (D). But the GOP has a deep bench in this dark red district, with former Rep. Bill Sali, state Attorney General Lawrence Wasden and state Sen. John McGee as potential candidates.

Sunday, May 3, 2009

In Case You Missed It...

Here's some notable 2010 election developments since I last posted in early April. Oh yeah, and I'm covering 2010 House election news too now:

PA-Sen: Six-term Republican Sen. Arlen Specter announced that he will switch parties and run as a Democrat in 2010 after seeing abysmal polling that showed him losing by double digits to former Rep. Pat Toomey in the Republican primary. President Obama, Harry Reid, Bob Casey (Pennsylvania's other Democratic senator), and the rest of the Democratic establishment has lined up behind Specter. Democrat Joe Torsella, who announced his candidacy before Specter's switch, says he will stay in the race and Rep. Joe Sestak is considering jumping in the race. Meanwhile, the Republicans are trying to find someone more electable (i.e., moderate) to run against the ultra-conservative Toomey in the GOP primary. So far, they've come up with two names: Rep. Jim Gerlach and former Gov. Tom Ridge--both of whom would be strong recruits.

KY-Sen: After adamantly proclaiming that he would run for re-election in 2010 (despite the will of Senate Republicans), Sen. Jim Bunning (R) has hinted that he might retire next year. He reportedly encouraged Kentucky Secretary of State Trey Grayson to form an exploratory committee to run for his seat, almost anointing him as his successor. Bunning has been known to do unconventional things in the past, so we'll keep an eye out to see if he actually decides to step down.

NH-01: Republicans landed one of their first major recruits for 2010 in Manchester Mayor Frank Guinta, who will be challenging sophomore Rep. Carol Shea-Porter. He does have an advantage in that Manchester in the state's most populous city and he has remained relatively popular in his tenure as mayor--and he also benefits from the fact that Shea-Porter is one of the most vulnerable House Democrats. But Republicans have underestimated Shea-Porter in 2006 and 2008--both of which were Democratic wave elections--so they hope not to make the same mistake again. This district is the more Republican of New Hampshire's two House seats, yet it gave Barack Obama 53% of the vote in 2008.

DE-AL: Rep. Mike Castle (R), a moderate, will face the strongest challenge he has ever had to face in his sixteen years as Delaware's lone representative from former Lieutenant Governor John Carney. Despite the district's Democratic lean, Castle has always won re-election by wide margins, but this time the 70-year-old will have a harder time. Castle has been considering running for the state's open Senate seat in 2010 or just retiring outright. If he does not run for re-election for whatever reason, this seat will be an easy pick-up in 2010 for the Democrats.

IL-10: Rep. Mark Kirk (R), another moderate, drew his first Democratic challenger--state Sen. Michael Bond. Kirk is considering running for Senate in 2010, and if he does, this seat will be an easy pick-up for the Democrats. But if he chooses to run for re-election, it is now guaranteed that he will face a tough challenger--perhaps a tougher challenge than he has faced in 2006 and 2008.

FL-10: The DCCC is touting State Sen. Charlie Justice as a top recruit against Rep. Bill Young (R), another House Republican who is considering retiring. Young has not faced serious competition in quite some time, and a strong candidate like Justice could nudge him in the direction of retirement. If he did retire, the open seat would be a toss-up and would create another opportunity for the Democrats to pick up a seat.

AR-Sen: Sen. Blanche Lincoln (D), one of the most conservative Democrats in the Senate, has drawn her first Republican challenger in state Senate Minority Leader Kim Hendren. Hendren is in his 70's, and is not expected to give Lincoln a scare, but other Republicans are considering jumping in the race. Lincoln is not incredibly popular back home, and given the right political environment and the right candidate, this race could become competitive.