Check out my rundown of the 2010 Senate races here

Friday, January 25, 2008

South Carolina Prediction (Dem)

Democrats:
1.) Obama 47%
2.) Clinton 38%
3.) Edwards 15%

This shouldn't be too close of a contest. Barack Obama will run away with the African American vote, and Hillary will do well with the whites.

John Edwards kind of gets ignored in this whole discussion, and I think most voters have already ruled him out as a viable option. If he doesn't reach 15%, expect him to consider dropping out.

Even if Obama wins, it won't help him all that much because he was expected to win. Hillary will spin it as the blacks coming out and supporting one of their own.

She will still have the advantage on Super Tuesday, even if she loses by a lot. She has been running much more of a national campaign than Obama and has the name recognition and the establishment behind her.

Something big would have to happen to make her the underdog going into February 5th.

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