Nevada Predictions

Here are my predictions for the Nevada caucuses that take place tomorrow.

Democrats:
1.) Obama 40%
2.) Clinton 37%
3.) Edwards 22%
4.) Kucinich 1%

Republicans:
1.) Romney 35%
2.) McCain 28%
3.) Huckabee 15%
4.) Paul 9%
5.) Giuliani 8%
6.) Thompson 5%

On the Democratic side, it's about two things: unions and Latinos. Hillary Clinton and Barack Obama (and John Edwards) have been vying for these votes that make up so much of the constituency of Nevada Democrats.

Obama has received the most union backing thus far, followed by Clinton, then Edwards. The union workers should give Obama a big boost tomorrow.

However, I think that Clinton will carry the majority of the Latino vote because of her strong ties to that community. In addition, the Latino community, whether they admit or not, may be uncomfortable voting for a black because of the hushed racial tension between them.

Now, there are many Latino union workers, which I think in the end, will ally themselves with their union rather than their views on race. Thus, Obama should win--but not by much.

On the Republican side, this race has been vastly overshadowed by the South Carolina primary taking place on the same day. Mitt Romney and Ron Paul are the only candidates who campaigned there. The rest are focused on winning South Carolina.

Mitt Romney has basically ceded South Carolina to John McCain, Mike Huckabee, and Fred Thompson and is focused on the state that everyone is ignoring (Nevada actually has more delegates than South Carolina).

Being the only real first-tier candidate to campaign here, and with the help of Mormons in the eastern part of the state, Mitt Romney should win here tomorrow--pretty handily.