John McCain has defeated Barack Obama in Missouri--the last state to be called in the 2008 presidential election, according to the Associated Press and several other major news organizations.
And boy it was close one. According to unofficial results, McCain leads Obama by 3,632 votes out of nearly 3 million cast--a margin of 0.12 percentage points.
McCain's win in Missouri breaks its tradition as a bellwether for the rest of the country--Missourians had picked the winning presidential candidate in every election since 1956.
Missouri's 11 electoral votes make the final electoral count: Obama 365, McCain 173.
Showing posts with label 2008 President. Show all posts
Showing posts with label 2008 President. Show all posts
Wednesday, November 19, 2008
Saturday, November 8, 2008
Obama Wins Omaha Electoral Vote
The Omaha World-Herald and several other news organizations have called Nebraska 2nd congressional district for president-elect Barack Obama, splitting the state's electoral votes for the first time in history.
The 2nd district is home to the city of Omaha and its surrounding suburbs, where there is a higher percentage of African Americans and registered Democrats than the rest of Nebraska. Obama poured resources, sent 16 paid staffers and opened three offices in the district.
It is truly amazing that in this landslide, Obama managed to pick up an electoral vote in perhaps the most solidly red region in the country. There will now be a blue circle amidst a sea of red in the Great Plains on national electoral maps.
These results give Obama his 365th electoral vote, while McCain's tally stands at 162. The only electoral votes that are left outstanding are the 11 from Missouri, where John McCain currently leads. MSNBC and FiveThirtyEight.com have called the state for McCain while CNN, Politico, RealClearPolitics have yet to declare a winner.
The 2nd district is home to the city of Omaha and its surrounding suburbs, where there is a higher percentage of African Americans and registered Democrats than the rest of Nebraska. Obama poured resources, sent 16 paid staffers and opened three offices in the district.
It is truly amazing that in this landslide, Obama managed to pick up an electoral vote in perhaps the most solidly red region in the country. There will now be a blue circle amidst a sea of red in the Great Plains on national electoral maps.
These results give Obama his 365th electoral vote, while McCain's tally stands at 162. The only electoral votes that are left outstanding are the 11 from Missouri, where John McCain currently leads. MSNBC and FiveThirtyEight.com have called the state for McCain while CNN, Politico, RealClearPolitics have yet to declare a winner.
Thursday, November 6, 2008
Obama Likely to Win One Nebraska Electoral Vote
That's right. Nebraska. The Omaha World-Herald reports:
This would mark the first time that Nebraska has split its electoral votes. Maine, the other state to award some of its electoral votes by Congressional District, has yet to do so.
Good news for Barack Obama supporters.
His odds of bagging an electoral vote in Nebraska grew stronger this morning, with word that 10,000 to 12,000 early ballots and 5,200 provisional ballots are left to count in Douglas County.
Obama won about 61 percent of the early votes counted before Tuesday's election. If that percentage holds with the early ballots left to count, Obama stands a strong chance of winning the Omaha-area 2nd Congressional District.
Republicans did not concede defeat this morning, but they acknowledged the long odds.
John McCain held a 569-vote lead over Obama in the 2nd District at the end of Tuesday.
"I will remain cautiously hopeful but not cautiously optimistic," said Hal Daub, state director for McCain. "I'm disappointed (in the numbers). We really worked hard here, against substantial resources being poured into Nebraska."
The final results in the 2nd District won't be known until next week, but election officials planned to begin counting the early ballots Friday, said David Phipps, Douglas County election commissioner.
This would mark the first time that Nebraska has split its electoral votes. Maine, the other state to award some of its electoral votes by Congressional District, has yet to do so.
Thursday Morning Update
Even though we know that the Democrats will control the executive and legislative branch, the 2008 election is not yet over, and the Obama people don't know exactly what kind of Congress they will be working with, as several races still hang in the balance:
Politico.com and FiveThirtyEight.com have just projected that Barack Obama will win reliably red North Carolina and its 15 electoral votes. Right now, Obama has 49.9% to McCain's 49.5% with 100% of the precincts reporting, yet Politico is the only major site or network to project a winner.
MSNBC has called Missouri for McCain, who leads Obama by 0.2% with 100% of the precincts reporting. If these two projections are valid, Obama will have won the electoral college 364-173 (Nebraska's 2nd Congressional district is still too close to call).
In the Senate, Democrat Jeff Merkley has been projected to narrowly beat out Republican Gordon Smith by The Oregonian. But three more races have yet to called.
In Minnesota, Republican Sen. Norm Coleman leads Al Franken by 477 votes out of 2.9 million cast, so the race is transitioning into a statewide automatic recount. The National Republican Senatorial Committee sent out several statements congratulating Coleman for his win, but both the Franken and Coleman campaigns have hired legal teams to represent them in the recount, a sign that this one is far from over. The recounts will begin in mid-November are might continue into December.
Alaska Senator and convicted felon Ted Stevens still leads Democrat Mark Begich by about 3,300 votes out of more than 208,000 cast, and with just 1% of precincts left to report. There are still at least 40,000 absentee ballots, 9,000 early voting ballots, and an undetermined number of questionable ballots that need to be counted, according to Roll Call. But things don't look good for Begich.
In Georgia, Republican Sen. Saxby Chambliss has not reached the 50% needed to win, so he will face Democrat Jim Martin in a run-off election on December 2. Organizers and volunteers on both sides have begun to buy plane tickets to come down to Georgia. This battle won't be for a 60th seat, but it will be a seat nonetheless.
In other news, about 133.3 million people cast ballots, or about 62.5% of eligible voters, according to George Mason University expert Michael McDonald. That's the highest turnout for any election since 1960, when 63.8% voted in the contest between John F. Kennedy and Richard Nixon.
Politico.com and FiveThirtyEight.com have just projected that Barack Obama will win reliably red North Carolina and its 15 electoral votes. Right now, Obama has 49.9% to McCain's 49.5% with 100% of the precincts reporting, yet Politico is the only major site or network to project a winner.
MSNBC has called Missouri for McCain, who leads Obama by 0.2% with 100% of the precincts reporting. If these two projections are valid, Obama will have won the electoral college 364-173 (Nebraska's 2nd Congressional district is still too close to call).
In the Senate, Democrat Jeff Merkley has been projected to narrowly beat out Republican Gordon Smith by The Oregonian. But three more races have yet to called.
In Minnesota, Republican Sen. Norm Coleman leads Al Franken by 477 votes out of 2.9 million cast, so the race is transitioning into a statewide automatic recount. The National Republican Senatorial Committee sent out several statements congratulating Coleman for his win, but both the Franken and Coleman campaigns have hired legal teams to represent them in the recount, a sign that this one is far from over. The recounts will begin in mid-November are might continue into December.
Alaska Senator and convicted felon Ted Stevens still leads Democrat Mark Begich by about 3,300 votes out of more than 208,000 cast, and with just 1% of precincts left to report. There are still at least 40,000 absentee ballots, 9,000 early voting ballots, and an undetermined number of questionable ballots that need to be counted, according to Roll Call. But things don't look good for Begich.
In Georgia, Republican Sen. Saxby Chambliss has not reached the 50% needed to win, so he will face Democrat Jim Martin in a run-off election on December 2. Organizers and volunteers on both sides have begun to buy plane tickets to come down to Georgia. This battle won't be for a 60th seat, but it will be a seat nonetheless.
In other news, about 133.3 million people cast ballots, or about 62.5% of eligible voters, according to George Mason University expert Michael McDonald. That's the highest turnout for any election since 1960, when 63.8% voted in the contest between John F. Kennedy and Richard Nixon.
Wednesday, November 5, 2008
Quick Election Night Roundup
Last night, Barack Obama became the first African American president-elect in United States history. And he did so by a fairly wide margin in comparison with the last two elections.
He won the popular vote by a fairly significant margin, 52% to 46% over John McCain nationwide, and he won almost every single battleground state.
The only battleground states he lost were Georgia, Montana, and West Virginia (if you can even call those states battlegrounds). McCain also appears on his way to winning Missouri, but it is very close and not quite all of the votes have been counted.
Obama won Nevada, New Mexico, Minnesota, Wisconsin, Pennsylvania, and New Hampshire by more than 10 points. He won Iowa by 9, Colorado by 8 and Virginia by 6 . And he squeaked by in Indiana, Ohio, Florida, and probably North Carolina (has not been officially called yet for Obama, but he holds a lead there).
I'll be honest, it is a bit hard to write today as I'm feeling a bizarre mix of emotions. But don't worry, I'll be back with the full and final results in the next few days as well as several post-mortem posts on why Obama won and exit poll analysis and the like.
I'm just glad they called the election relatively early last night and there were no legal debacles as there were in the last two elections. I really can't tell you how relieved I am about that.
He won the popular vote by a fairly significant margin, 52% to 46% over John McCain nationwide, and he won almost every single battleground state.
The only battleground states he lost were Georgia, Montana, and West Virginia (if you can even call those states battlegrounds). McCain also appears on his way to winning Missouri, but it is very close and not quite all of the votes have been counted.
Obama won Nevada, New Mexico, Minnesota, Wisconsin, Pennsylvania, and New Hampshire by more than 10 points. He won Iowa by 9, Colorado by 8 and Virginia by 6 . And he squeaked by in Indiana, Ohio, Florida, and probably North Carolina (has not been officially called yet for Obama, but he holds a lead there).
I'll be honest, it is a bit hard to write today as I'm feeling a bizarre mix of emotions. But don't worry, I'll be back with the full and final results in the next few days as well as several post-mortem posts on why Obama won and exit poll analysis and the like.
I'm just glad they called the election relatively early last night and there were no legal debacles as there were in the last two elections. I really can't tell you how relieved I am about that.
BARACK OBAMA ELECTED PRESIDENT
At 11:00 P.M. eastern time, the networks officially projected that Barack Obama would get the 270 electoral votes needed to win the presidency.The current electoral count is Obama 338, McCain 156 according the CNN.com. Indiana, North Carolina, Missouri, Montana, and --get this--Nebraska's 2nd Congressional District are still too close to call. Alaska's polls just closed and it is too early to call.
CNN has the popular vote count at Obama 52% and McCain 47%.
It is very late, but I will have the full state-by-state election results for you tomorrow as well as an analysis of exit poll data over the next few days.
Tuesday, November 4, 2008
State of the Race: 90 Minutes to Go
Well, it's finally here: election day. There have already been reports of long lines and voting problems, and I'm sure there's much more of that coming in the final few hours that the polls are open.
The first polls close at 6:00 P.M. eastern time in Indiana and Kentucky.
The good news for John McCain is that it is raining in Pennsylvania, Virginia and North Carolina. Rain lowers turnout and lower turnout usually helps Republicans because low-income voters--who tend to be Democrats--have historically been more discouraged from voting based on the weather. Now, this year may be different, but any little thing that affects turnout could make a difference.
Karl Rove predicted that Barack Obama would defeat John McCain 338 to 200 in the electoral college, and he also said that McCain would hang on to Indiana, North Carolina and Missouri by a thread, which means that he thinks that these states could conceivably go to Obama.
The final electoral prediction map at RealClearPolitics.com is Obama 338, McCain 200 as well. They also predict that Obama will win the popular vote by 7.6%.
Electoral-Vote.com predicts that Obama will win 353-174, with 11 (Missouri) tied. FiveThirtyEight.com projects that Obama will win 353-185, and they project that Obama will win the popular vote by 6.1%.
Yesterday I predicted that Obama would win 359 electoral votes to McCain's 179. My big shockers were Montana and North Dakota, which I predicted would both go to Obama by small margins. I also predicted that Obama would win the popular vote by 5.2%.
But now, let's take one last look at the average of the polls for each of the 20 battleground states and my final projection based on these numbers:
Missouri (11)--McCain +0.3
North Carolina (15)--Obama +0.5
Florida (27)--Obama +1.5
North Dakota (3)--McCain +1.6
Indiana (11)--McCain +1.6
Ohio (20)--Obama +3.0
Montana (3)--McCain +3.5
Georgia (15)--McCain +3.6
Arizona (10)--McCain +4.1
Virginia (13)--Obama +4.7
Nevada (5)--Obama +5.8
Colorado (9)--Obama +6.0
Pennsylvania (21)--Obama +7.8
New Mexico (5)--Obama +8.3
South Dakota--McCain +8.7
West Virginia (5)--McCain +9.9
Minnesota (10)--Obama +10.3
New Hampshire (4)--Obama +11.1
Wisconsin (10)--Obama +11.2
Iowa (7)--Obama +13.3
FINAL ELECTORAL VOTE PROJECTION:
Obama: 353
McCain: 185
FINAL POPULAR VOTE PROJECTION:
Obama +7.0
So the polls are showing that Missouri and North Carolina are going to be the tightest states tonight. They also expect the margins of victory in Florida, North Dakota, Indiana, Ohio, Montana, Georgia, Arizona, and Virginia to be within five points.
In addition, they expect the margins of victory in Nevada, Colorado, Pennsylvania, New Mexico, South Dakota, and West Virginia to be in 5-10 point range. They also seem to show that Obama will win Minnesota, New Hampshire, Wisconsin, and Iowa by over 10 points.
Now, if the polls are systematically wrong, of course the above prediction will be off by a lot. But the polls have been relatively reliable right in the days before the last few elections.
I think I have analyzed enough for now. I will let the results speak for themselves. If you have not voted yet, please do so and get a spot in line before its too late!
I know you've already heard this, but whatever happens tonight will be historic. America could elect its first African American president, or it could elect its first female to the position of Vice President.
In fact, the primaries alone were incredibly historic. Barack Obama defeated the "inevitable" Hillary Clinton (and her husband), and John McCain came back from being written off by nearly everyone to claim the Republican nomination. There will be full chapters written about this election in history textbooks everywhere.
Thank you to all of those who have consistently (or inconsistently) read this blog over the past 11 months, and to those who have not been too judgmental or accusatory of the "non-partisan" claim at the top of the page. I honestly have tried my best to keep this site "fair and balanced." Whatever happens in the next 5-10 hours will profoundly affect the future of this country, for better or for worse.
The first polls close at 6:00 P.M. eastern time in Indiana and Kentucky.
The good news for John McCain is that it is raining in Pennsylvania, Virginia and North Carolina. Rain lowers turnout and lower turnout usually helps Republicans because low-income voters--who tend to be Democrats--have historically been more discouraged from voting based on the weather. Now, this year may be different, but any little thing that affects turnout could make a difference.
Karl Rove predicted that Barack Obama would defeat John McCain 338 to 200 in the electoral college, and he also said that McCain would hang on to Indiana, North Carolina and Missouri by a thread, which means that he thinks that these states could conceivably go to Obama.
The final electoral prediction map at RealClearPolitics.com is Obama 338, McCain 200 as well. They also predict that Obama will win the popular vote by 7.6%.
Electoral-Vote.com predicts that Obama will win 353-174, with 11 (Missouri) tied. FiveThirtyEight.com projects that Obama will win 353-185, and they project that Obama will win the popular vote by 6.1%.
Yesterday I predicted that Obama would win 359 electoral votes to McCain's 179. My big shockers were Montana and North Dakota, which I predicted would both go to Obama by small margins. I also predicted that Obama would win the popular vote by 5.2%.
But now, let's take one last look at the average of the polls for each of the 20 battleground states and my final projection based on these numbers:
Missouri (11)--McCain +0.3
North Carolina (15)--Obama +0.5
Florida (27)--Obama +1.5
North Dakota (3)--McCain +1.6
Indiana (11)--McCain +1.6
Ohio (20)--Obama +3.0
Montana (3)--McCain +3.5
Georgia (15)--McCain +3.6
Arizona (10)--McCain +4.1
Virginia (13)--Obama +4.7
Nevada (5)--Obama +5.8
Colorado (9)--Obama +6.0
Pennsylvania (21)--Obama +7.8
New Mexico (5)--Obama +8.3
South Dakota--McCain +8.7
West Virginia (5)--McCain +9.9
Minnesota (10)--Obama +10.3
New Hampshire (4)--Obama +11.1
Wisconsin (10)--Obama +11.2
Iowa (7)--Obama +13.3
FINAL ELECTORAL VOTE PROJECTION:
Obama: 353
McCain: 185
FINAL POPULAR VOTE PROJECTION:
Obama +7.0
So the polls are showing that Missouri and North Carolina are going to be the tightest states tonight. They also expect the margins of victory in Florida, North Dakota, Indiana, Ohio, Montana, Georgia, Arizona, and Virginia to be within five points.
In addition, they expect the margins of victory in Nevada, Colorado, Pennsylvania, New Mexico, South Dakota, and West Virginia to be in 5-10 point range. They also seem to show that Obama will win Minnesota, New Hampshire, Wisconsin, and Iowa by over 10 points.
Now, if the polls are systematically wrong, of course the above prediction will be off by a lot. But the polls have been relatively reliable right in the days before the last few elections.
I think I have analyzed enough for now. I will let the results speak for themselves. If you have not voted yet, please do so and get a spot in line before its too late!
I know you've already heard this, but whatever happens tonight will be historic. America could elect its first African American president, or it could elect its first female to the position of Vice President.
In fact, the primaries alone were incredibly historic. Barack Obama defeated the "inevitable" Hillary Clinton (and her husband), and John McCain came back from being written off by nearly everyone to claim the Republican nomination. There will be full chapters written about this election in history textbooks everywhere.
Thank you to all of those who have consistently (or inconsistently) read this blog over the past 11 months, and to those who have not been too judgmental or accusatory of the "non-partisan" claim at the top of the page. I honestly have tried my best to keep this site "fair and balanced." Whatever happens in the next 5-10 hours will profoundly affect the future of this country, for better or for worse.
Monday, November 3, 2008
State of the Race: 1 Day to Go
It's so close I can almost taste it. Only 20 more hours until the first polls close in Indiana and Kentucky (6:00 EST).
We have 41 new state polls today. All I can say is that things do not look good for John McCain. Here are today's battleground state averages:
Missouri (11)--McCain +0.6
North Carolina (15)--Obama +0.7
North Dakota (3)--McCain +1.3
Indiana (11)--McCain +1.5
Florida (27)--Obama +2.3
Montana (3)--McCain +3.4
Ohio (20)--Obama +3.8
Georgia (15)--McCain +4.2
Arizona (10)--McCain +4.4
Virginia (13)--Obama +4.9
Nevada (5)--Obama +5.5
Colorado (9)--Obama +6.1
Pennsylvania (21)--Obama +7.9
New Mexico (5)--Obama +8.2
West Virginia (5)--McCain +8.7
South Dakota--McCain +8.7
Minnesota (10)--Obama +10.3
New Hampshire (4)--Obama +10.9
Wisconsin (10)--Obama +11.1
Iowa (7)--Obama +13.3
TODAY'S ELECTORAL VOTE PROJECTION:
Obama: 353
McCain: 185
The national polls converged today and it looks like Barack Obama has about a 6-7 point lead. All 14 of the national polls (plus the Research 2000 tracking poll) have Obama up by 5-11 points.
None of the battleground states have shifted drastically since yesterday, but Obama appears to have improved his standing by a fraction of a point in a number of states. And yes, that is significant, because one half of a point in one state could be the difference between President Obama and President McCain.
It's looking pretty clear that Obama will carry of all the states that John Kerry won in 2004. Despite the McCain campaign's strategy and all of the hype, Pennsylvania just does not seem in play, barring divine intervention. McCain is down by 8 points there still, which is far outside the margin of error.
It's also fairly certain that Obama will win Iowa and New Mexico. If he wins all of the states I just mentioned, he will have 264 electoral votes, and would need 5 more to tie or 6 more to win.
He has a lot, and I mean a LOT or different ways of getting those 5 or 6 electoral votes. The easiest state to get him there is Colorado, followed by Nevada, Virginia, Ohio, Florida, North Carolina, Missouri, Indiana, Georgia, or the combination of North Dakota and Montana.
If McCain loses Pennsylvania--and I really believe he will--he must win each and every one of those states. He is behind in many of those states going into election day, and does have a good shot of winning a few of them. But he will almost certainly not win all of them.
McCain's only hope now is that either the polls are all significantly wrong or that America is much more racist than everyone thinks it is and there is some kind of massive nationwide Bradley effect. And even that may not be enough to overcome the kind of deficit he has right now.
Let's just say--for kicks and giggles--that it's the best case scenario for McCain and the polls were way off and there's a Bradley effect and he does win Pennsylvania. He then only has 25 electoral votes of breathing room. Meaning that if Obama wins Colorado, Virginia, and Nevada--all states that he's up by 5 points or more in--he wins the election anyway. Or it could be any of the other must-win states for McCain that puts Obama over the top.
McCain has one, maybe two paths to 270. Obama has dozens. Let's just put it this way. If you're a McCain supporter, be afraid. Be very afraid.
I'll be back with my final "State of the Race" update sometime before 6:00 P.M. eastern time tomorrow. If you are eligible, please get out there and vote tomorrow!
We have 41 new state polls today. All I can say is that things do not look good for John McCain. Here are today's battleground state averages:
Missouri (11)--McCain +0.6
North Carolina (15)--Obama +0.7
North Dakota (3)--McCain +1.3
Indiana (11)--McCain +1.5
Florida (27)--Obama +2.3
Montana (3)--McCain +3.4
Ohio (20)--Obama +3.8
Georgia (15)--McCain +4.2
Arizona (10)--McCain +4.4
Virginia (13)--Obama +4.9
Nevada (5)--Obama +5.5
Colorado (9)--Obama +6.1
Pennsylvania (21)--Obama +7.9
New Mexico (5)--Obama +8.2
West Virginia (5)--McCain +8.7
South Dakota--McCain +8.7
Minnesota (10)--Obama +10.3
New Hampshire (4)--Obama +10.9
Wisconsin (10)--Obama +11.1
Iowa (7)--Obama +13.3
TODAY'S ELECTORAL VOTE PROJECTION:
Obama: 353
McCain: 185
The national polls converged today and it looks like Barack Obama has about a 6-7 point lead. All 14 of the national polls (plus the Research 2000 tracking poll) have Obama up by 5-11 points.
None of the battleground states have shifted drastically since yesterday, but Obama appears to have improved his standing by a fraction of a point in a number of states. And yes, that is significant, because one half of a point in one state could be the difference between President Obama and President McCain.
It's looking pretty clear that Obama will carry of all the states that John Kerry won in 2004. Despite the McCain campaign's strategy and all of the hype, Pennsylvania just does not seem in play, barring divine intervention. McCain is down by 8 points there still, which is far outside the margin of error.
It's also fairly certain that Obama will win Iowa and New Mexico. If he wins all of the states I just mentioned, he will have 264 electoral votes, and would need 5 more to tie or 6 more to win.
He has a lot, and I mean a LOT or different ways of getting those 5 or 6 electoral votes. The easiest state to get him there is Colorado, followed by Nevada, Virginia, Ohio, Florida, North Carolina, Missouri, Indiana, Georgia, or the combination of North Dakota and Montana.
If McCain loses Pennsylvania--and I really believe he will--he must win each and every one of those states. He is behind in many of those states going into election day, and does have a good shot of winning a few of them. But he will almost certainly not win all of them.
McCain's only hope now is that either the polls are all significantly wrong or that America is much more racist than everyone thinks it is and there is some kind of massive nationwide Bradley effect. And even that may not be enough to overcome the kind of deficit he has right now.
Let's just say--for kicks and giggles--that it's the best case scenario for McCain and the polls were way off and there's a Bradley effect and he does win Pennsylvania. He then only has 25 electoral votes of breathing room. Meaning that if Obama wins Colorado, Virginia, and Nevada--all states that he's up by 5 points or more in--he wins the election anyway. Or it could be any of the other must-win states for McCain that puts Obama over the top.
McCain has one, maybe two paths to 270. Obama has dozens. Let's just put it this way. If you're a McCain supporter, be afraid. Be very afraid.
I'll be back with my final "State of the Race" update sometime before 6:00 P.M. eastern time tomorrow. If you are eligible, please get out there and vote tomorrow!
My Presidential Election Predictions
Drumroll please. Here are my final predictions for the 20 battleground states as well as the national popular vote for the presidential election. The states are listed in alphabetical order. Here we go.
Arizona (10)--
John McCain: 53%
Barack Obama: 47%
Notes: Obama will give McCain a bit of a scare here when the networks don't immediately call the state for McCain, but he will indeed carry his home state.
Colorado (9)--
Barack Obama: 52%
John McCain: 47%
Notes: Obama will benefit heavily from early voting and a hefty advantage in enthusiasm. Hispanic and younger voters will show up to the polls in unprecedented numbers here.
Florida (27)--
Barack Obama: 50%
John McCain: 49%
Notes: Barack Obama will squeak out a win in here due to the impressive and unprecedented support he received from early voting. The networks will not project this state until late in the night, making sure they do not get this state wrong again. For the record, this state along with North Carolina were the hardest states to predict the winner in.
Georgia (15)--
John McCain: 50%
Barack Obama: 48%
Notes: An incredibly large surge in African American turnout won't be enough for Obama to steal this state away from McCain, but it'll be close. However, Obama will overperform the polls here like he did in the primaries. Libertarian candidate Bob Barr will get around 2% of the vote here in his home state--the best result he will get nationwide.
Indiana (11)--
John McCain: 51%
Barack Obama: 49%
Notes: This state is too red to change hands this election cycle. The undecideds in this state will swing to McCain at the last minute, although Obama will do well in Gary County and the northwest part of the state. I also predict that there will be a small Bradley effect here.
Iowa (7)--
Barack Obama: 54%
John McCain: 45%
Notes: I don't know why the McCain campaign ever thought they could have won this state. Their candidate basically ignored the Iowa caucuses in 2000 and 2008, and he opposes subsidies for ethanol (and there are a lot of corn farmers in Iowa) while Obama basically lived here for a year before the caucuses in January.
Minnesota (10)--
Barack Obama: 55%
John McCain: 44%
Notes: The presidential race will not be close here and the networks will call it for Obama soon after the polls close at 9:00 Eastern time. The real race to watch in this state will be the three-way Senate race that could not be closer.
Missouri (11)--
John McCain: 50%
Barack Obama: 49%
Notes: This state will lose its status as a bellwether for the rest of the country. McCain will only very slightly edge out Obama here, and black voters in St. Louis and Kansas City will come out in huge numbers to support Obama.
Montana (3)--
Barack Obama: 48%
John McCain: 47%
Notes: This state will be one the biggest shockers of the night. The rain that is expected there will cause many Republicans who are indifferent to McCain to stay home. Ron Paul, who is on the ballot as the state's Constitution Party candidate will receive 4% of the vote here, while Bob Barr will get 1%. That 5% that normally would have gone to McCain will give Obama just enough to win the state's three electoral votes.
Nevada (5)--
Barack Obama: 51%
John McCain: 48%
Notes: A surge of Hispanic voters as well as massive turnout in the more liberal southern part of the state will propel Obama to victory here.
New Hampshire (4)--
Barack Obama: 53%
John McCain: 46%
Notes: A statewide Democratic sweep will occur here on election day, much like it did in 2006. New Hampshire voters' frustration and hatred of the Bush administration will overrule their affection for John McCain dating back to the 2000 Republican primaries. But McCain will outperform the polls here because of his history with the state and his "maverick" status.
New Mexico (5)--
Barack Obama: 54%
John McCain: 46%
Notes: Hispanics will be the big story here. They will come out in droves for Barack Obama by a three-to-one margin.
North Carolina (15)--
Barack Obama: 50%
John McCain: 49%
Notes: Unlike Georgia, the immense surge in African American voters will be enough for Obama to take this state away from the Republican column. Also, the enthusiasm of Obama supporters during early voting will play heavily to his advantage. This was a very tough call for me, but I refuse to second guess myself about this prediction.
North Dakota (3)--
Barack Obama: 50%
John McCain: 49%
Notes: This will be the other big election night surprise, and it will be insult to injury for John McCain. Obama will benefit heavily from same-day registration, which is one of the cornerstones of the state's voting tradition.
Ohio (20)--
Barack Obama: 51%
John McCain: 49%
Notes: Even Joe the Plumber can't save John McCain in this, the swingiest of swing states. The hard toll the economy has had on state will overrule whatever inhibitions Ohioans will have about Barack Obama. Ohio, along with Indiana, Pennsylvania, and West Virginia, will have a small Bradley effect, but it will not be significant enough to cause Obama to lose the state.
Pennsylvania (21)--
Barack Obama: 53%
John McCain: 47%
Notes: McCain's last minute all-out effort in the state, coupled with a minor Bradley effect in central and western Pennsylvania, will fall short in denying Obama the Keystone state.
South Dakota (3)--
John McCain: 53%
Barack Obama: 46%
Notes: Unlike its partner to the north, South Dakota will stay firmly in the Republican column this time around.
Virginia (13)--
Barack Obama: 52%
John McCain: 48%
Notes: Once again, the heavy African American turnout will make a huge difference in this new swing state. Obama will carry the Washington suburbs in northern Virginia by large margins and put the state's 13 electoral votes in the Democratic column for the first time since 1964.
West Virginia (5)--
John McCain: 56%
Barack Obama: 44%
Notes: Contrary to what many polls indicated, West Virginia was never in play. White voters (which make up the vast majority here) will end up voting for McCain in the end, despite their concerns about the economy. There will be a significant Bradley effect in West Virginia, a state where Obama got about a quarter of the vote during the primaries.
Wisconsin (10)--
Barack Obama: 54%
John McCain: 45%
Notes: Dissatisfaction with President Bush and Republicans in general along with Obama's progressive and populist message will cause the Democrat to win this state easily.
Final Electoral Count:
Barack Obama: 359
John McCain: 179
Final Popular Vote:
Barack Obama: 52.3%
John McCain: 47.1%
Other: 0.6%
Arizona (10)--
John McCain: 53%
Barack Obama: 47%
Notes: Obama will give McCain a bit of a scare here when the networks don't immediately call the state for McCain, but he will indeed carry his home state.
Colorado (9)--
Barack Obama: 52%
John McCain: 47%
Notes: Obama will benefit heavily from early voting and a hefty advantage in enthusiasm. Hispanic and younger voters will show up to the polls in unprecedented numbers here.
Florida (27)--
Barack Obama: 50%
John McCain: 49%
Notes: Barack Obama will squeak out a win in here due to the impressive and unprecedented support he received from early voting. The networks will not project this state until late in the night, making sure they do not get this state wrong again. For the record, this state along with North Carolina were the hardest states to predict the winner in.
Georgia (15)--
John McCain: 50%
Barack Obama: 48%
Notes: An incredibly large surge in African American turnout won't be enough for Obama to steal this state away from McCain, but it'll be close. However, Obama will overperform the polls here like he did in the primaries. Libertarian candidate Bob Barr will get around 2% of the vote here in his home state--the best result he will get nationwide.
Indiana (11)--
John McCain: 51%
Barack Obama: 49%
Notes: This state is too red to change hands this election cycle. The undecideds in this state will swing to McCain at the last minute, although Obama will do well in Gary County and the northwest part of the state. I also predict that there will be a small Bradley effect here.
Iowa (7)--
Barack Obama: 54%
John McCain: 45%
Notes: I don't know why the McCain campaign ever thought they could have won this state. Their candidate basically ignored the Iowa caucuses in 2000 and 2008, and he opposes subsidies for ethanol (and there are a lot of corn farmers in Iowa) while Obama basically lived here for a year before the caucuses in January.
Minnesota (10)--
Barack Obama: 55%
John McCain: 44%
Notes: The presidential race will not be close here and the networks will call it for Obama soon after the polls close at 9:00 Eastern time. The real race to watch in this state will be the three-way Senate race that could not be closer.
Missouri (11)--
John McCain: 50%
Barack Obama: 49%
Notes: This state will lose its status as a bellwether for the rest of the country. McCain will only very slightly edge out Obama here, and black voters in St. Louis and Kansas City will come out in huge numbers to support Obama.
Montana (3)--
Barack Obama: 48%
John McCain: 47%
Notes: This state will be one the biggest shockers of the night. The rain that is expected there will cause many Republicans who are indifferent to McCain to stay home. Ron Paul, who is on the ballot as the state's Constitution Party candidate will receive 4% of the vote here, while Bob Barr will get 1%. That 5% that normally would have gone to McCain will give Obama just enough to win the state's three electoral votes.
Nevada (5)--
Barack Obama: 51%
John McCain: 48%
Notes: A surge of Hispanic voters as well as massive turnout in the more liberal southern part of the state will propel Obama to victory here.
New Hampshire (4)--
Barack Obama: 53%
John McCain: 46%
Notes: A statewide Democratic sweep will occur here on election day, much like it did in 2006. New Hampshire voters' frustration and hatred of the Bush administration will overrule their affection for John McCain dating back to the 2000 Republican primaries. But McCain will outperform the polls here because of his history with the state and his "maverick" status.
New Mexico (5)--
Barack Obama: 54%
John McCain: 46%
Notes: Hispanics will be the big story here. They will come out in droves for Barack Obama by a three-to-one margin.
North Carolina (15)--
Barack Obama: 50%
John McCain: 49%
Notes: Unlike Georgia, the immense surge in African American voters will be enough for Obama to take this state away from the Republican column. Also, the enthusiasm of Obama supporters during early voting will play heavily to his advantage. This was a very tough call for me, but I refuse to second guess myself about this prediction.
North Dakota (3)--
Barack Obama: 50%
John McCain: 49%
Notes: This will be the other big election night surprise, and it will be insult to injury for John McCain. Obama will benefit heavily from same-day registration, which is one of the cornerstones of the state's voting tradition.
Ohio (20)--
Barack Obama: 51%
John McCain: 49%
Notes: Even Joe the Plumber can't save John McCain in this, the swingiest of swing states. The hard toll the economy has had on state will overrule whatever inhibitions Ohioans will have about Barack Obama. Ohio, along with Indiana, Pennsylvania, and West Virginia, will have a small Bradley effect, but it will not be significant enough to cause Obama to lose the state.
Pennsylvania (21)--
Barack Obama: 53%
John McCain: 47%
Notes: McCain's last minute all-out effort in the state, coupled with a minor Bradley effect in central and western Pennsylvania, will fall short in denying Obama the Keystone state.
South Dakota (3)--
John McCain: 53%
Barack Obama: 46%
Notes: Unlike its partner to the north, South Dakota will stay firmly in the Republican column this time around.
Virginia (13)--
Barack Obama: 52%
John McCain: 48%
Notes: Once again, the heavy African American turnout will make a huge difference in this new swing state. Obama will carry the Washington suburbs in northern Virginia by large margins and put the state's 13 electoral votes in the Democratic column for the first time since 1964.
West Virginia (5)--
John McCain: 56%
Barack Obama: 44%
Notes: Contrary to what many polls indicated, West Virginia was never in play. White voters (which make up the vast majority here) will end up voting for McCain in the end, despite their concerns about the economy. There will be a significant Bradley effect in West Virginia, a state where Obama got about a quarter of the vote during the primaries.
Wisconsin (10)--
Barack Obama: 54%
John McCain: 45%
Notes: Dissatisfaction with President Bush and Republicans in general along with Obama's progressive and populist message will cause the Democrat to win this state easily.
Final Electoral Count:
Barack Obama: 359
John McCain: 179
Final Popular Vote:
Barack Obama: 52.3%
John McCain: 47.1%
Other: 0.6%
Sunday, November 2, 2008
State of the Race: 2 Days to Go
We have 20 new state polls today. And with two days to go, it looks like John McCain is finally closing. But not enough. Here are the battleground state numbers:
North Carolina (15)--Obama +0.9
Missouri (11)--McCain +1.0
Indiana (11)--McCain +1.4
North Dakota (3)--McCain +1.9
Florida (27)--Obama +2.4
Georgia (15)--McCain +3.9
Ohio (20)--Obama +4.1
Montana (3)--McCain +4.4
Arizona (10)--McCain +4.9
Nevada (5)--Obama +5.1
Virginia (13)--Obama +5.1
Colorado (9)--Obama +5.6
Pennsylvania (21)--Obama +7.4
New Mexico (5)--Obama +7.8
West Virginia (5)--McCain +8.9
South Dakota--McCain +9.4
New Hampshire (4)--Obama +10.2
Wisconsin (10)--Obama +10.4
Minnesota (10)--Obama +11.4
Iowa (7)--Obama +12.9
TODAY'S ELECTORAL VOTE PROJECTION:
Obama: 353
McCain: 185
The national polls stayed relatively still today, and Obama still has about a 5 or 6-point lead nationally.
McCain ticked up about a point in North Carolina, Ohio, Virginia, Colorado, and Pennsylvania since yesterday's update. And it's a good thing too, because those are all states that are critical to a McCain's best case electoral scenario.
McCain's increases in these five states are due to the flurry of Mason-Dixon battleground state polls that were released today. They give McCain a 3-point lead in NC and a 2-point lead in OH. They also gave Obama a 5-point lead in CO, a 4-point lead in PA and a 3-point lead in VA.
Some other polls they released today were in Florida (O+2), Missouri (M+1), and Nevada (O+4).
Now, Mason-Dixon's polls have leaned 2-3 points more toward McCain than the average of other polls taken in those states at the same time. This doesn't mean that they are biased or partisan. They are non-partisan, but they just have a different way of sampling the electorate than other pollsters, and they may turn out to be the most accurate on election day.
McCain also gets some more good numbers in Pennsylvania today. His deficit in the Morning Call tracker in down to 7 points, SurveyUSA has him down by 7 as well, and Rasmussen has him down by only 6. I'll keep an eye on the numbers coming out of this state tomorrow and Tuesday, but I still don't think that he will win the state. It very well could be close--even within 2 or 3 points--but I think he'll come short on election day.
The only state that Obama improved in was Iowa, where a Des Moines Register poll has him up by 17 points. And Ann Selzer, the pollster that conducted the poll, is usually pretty accurate when it comes to Iowa elections. But nonetheless, the McCain campaign thinks they have a shot there. McCain's campaign manager, Steve Schmidt, says that they're down by only a few points there based on internal polling. Somebody's gotta be wrong.
Expect a ton of polls to come out tomorrow, as is customary with the Mondays before election day. I will have a detailed analysis of those numbers as well as predictions for the 20 battleground states listed above on the morrow.
North Carolina (15)--Obama +0.9
Missouri (11)--McCain +1.0
Indiana (11)--McCain +1.4
North Dakota (3)--McCain +1.9
Florida (27)--Obama +2.4
Georgia (15)--McCain +3.9
Ohio (20)--Obama +4.1
Montana (3)--McCain +4.4
Arizona (10)--McCain +4.9
Nevada (5)--Obama +5.1
Virginia (13)--Obama +5.1
Colorado (9)--Obama +5.6
Pennsylvania (21)--Obama +7.4
New Mexico (5)--Obama +7.8
West Virginia (5)--McCain +8.9
South Dakota--McCain +9.4
New Hampshire (4)--Obama +10.2
Wisconsin (10)--Obama +10.4
Minnesota (10)--Obama +11.4
Iowa (7)--Obama +12.9
TODAY'S ELECTORAL VOTE PROJECTION:
Obama: 353
McCain: 185
The national polls stayed relatively still today, and Obama still has about a 5 or 6-point lead nationally.
McCain ticked up about a point in North Carolina, Ohio, Virginia, Colorado, and Pennsylvania since yesterday's update. And it's a good thing too, because those are all states that are critical to a McCain's best case electoral scenario.
McCain's increases in these five states are due to the flurry of Mason-Dixon battleground state polls that were released today. They give McCain a 3-point lead in NC and a 2-point lead in OH. They also gave Obama a 5-point lead in CO, a 4-point lead in PA and a 3-point lead in VA.
Some other polls they released today were in Florida (O+2), Missouri (M+1), and Nevada (O+4).
Now, Mason-Dixon's polls have leaned 2-3 points more toward McCain than the average of other polls taken in those states at the same time. This doesn't mean that they are biased or partisan. They are non-partisan, but they just have a different way of sampling the electorate than other pollsters, and they may turn out to be the most accurate on election day.
McCain also gets some more good numbers in Pennsylvania today. His deficit in the Morning Call tracker in down to 7 points, SurveyUSA has him down by 7 as well, and Rasmussen has him down by only 6. I'll keep an eye on the numbers coming out of this state tomorrow and Tuesday, but I still don't think that he will win the state. It very well could be close--even within 2 or 3 points--but I think he'll come short on election day.
The only state that Obama improved in was Iowa, where a Des Moines Register poll has him up by 17 points. And Ann Selzer, the pollster that conducted the poll, is usually pretty accurate when it comes to Iowa elections. But nonetheless, the McCain campaign thinks they have a shot there. McCain's campaign manager, Steve Schmidt, says that they're down by only a few points there based on internal polling. Somebody's gotta be wrong.
Expect a ton of polls to come out tomorrow, as is customary with the Mondays before election day. I will have a detailed analysis of those numbers as well as predictions for the 20 battleground states listed above on the morrow.
Some Early Voting Numbers
Here are some of the early voting numbers from battleground states (and Louisiana), courtesy of CNN:
North Carolina (as of 10/31):
Democrats: 1,092,687 (52.3%)
Republicans: 615,184 (29.6%)
Florida (as of 10/31):
Democrats: 1,532,200 (45.6%)
Republicans: 1,283,554 (38.2%)
Louisiana (as of 10/29):
Democrats: 156,084 (58.5%)
Republicans: 75,818 (28.4%)
Iowa (as of 10/29):
Democrats: 193,600 (48.3%)
Republicans: 114,637 (28.6%)
New Mexico (as of 10/30):
Democrats: 86,757 (53.4%)
Republicans: 53,490 (32.9%)
Colorado (as of 10/31):
Democrats: 488,575 (37.8%)
Republicans: 465,869 (35.9%)
So, Democrats are vastly outnumbering Republicans in early voting, even in solid red states like Louisiana. Republicans will probably come out in large numbers in states like Louisiana, North Carolina and Florida and close the gap, but these numbers are impressive for the Obama campaign and show that they have a large advantage in enthusiasm and get-out-the-vote programs.
If you want to see the numbers for all of the early voting states, click here.
North Carolina (as of 10/31):
Democrats: 1,092,687 (52.3%)
Republicans: 615,184 (29.6%)
Florida (as of 10/31):
Democrats: 1,532,200 (45.6%)
Republicans: 1,283,554 (38.2%)
Louisiana (as of 10/29):
Democrats: 156,084 (58.5%)
Republicans: 75,818 (28.4%)
Iowa (as of 10/29):
Democrats: 193,600 (48.3%)
Republicans: 114,637 (28.6%)
New Mexico (as of 10/30):
Democrats: 86,757 (53.4%)
Republicans: 53,490 (32.9%)
Colorado (as of 10/31):
Democrats: 488,575 (37.8%)
Republicans: 465,869 (35.9%)
So, Democrats are vastly outnumbering Republicans in early voting, even in solid red states like Louisiana. Republicans will probably come out in large numbers in states like Louisiana, North Carolina and Florida and close the gap, but these numbers are impressive for the Obama campaign and show that they have a large advantage in enthusiasm and get-out-the-vote programs.
If you want to see the numbers for all of the early voting states, click here.
Saturday, November 1, 2008
Blacks Give Dems Edge in Early Florida Voting
The Miami Herald gives us a good run-down of early voting in Florida. Here are some highlights:
A huge increase in early voting has given Democrats a decided advantage over Republicans in Florida -- a major departure from statewide voting trends four years ago, according to a Miami Herald analysis of early and absentee ballots cast so far this year.
Through Thursday, Democrats cast 46 percent of the 3.4 million early and absentee votes in Florida, while Republicans cast 38 percent.
That's a big shift since 2004, when Democrats were outvoted 44 percent to 41 percent by Republicans in early and absentee ballots, according to a study of Florida voting data.
The recent Democratic gains have been most pronounced in early voting, where Democrats have outnumbered Republicans by 432,000 out of nearly two million voters.
Black voters have made the difference, accounting for 16 percent of the early and absentee voters so far -- with 86 percent of them registered Democrats. In 2004, black turnout for early and absentee voting was a bit more than 10 percent of the total.
By Thursday, early-voting numbers for the state already had smashed the total 2004 turnout by nearly 38 percent. Absentee ballots so far have also exceeded the total cast four years ago.
Already, nearly one-third of all registered Democrats and Republicans in Florida have cast a ballot. Duval elections supervisor Jerry Holland said he expects as many as 45 percent of the state's votes could be in before Election Day.
State of the Race: 3 Days to Go
It was a slow polling day, with only 15 new state polls. Here's today's battleground state averages with three days to go until election day:
Missouri (11)--McCain +0.7
Indiana (11)--McCain +1.3
North Dakota (3)--McCain +1.6
North Carolina (15)--Obama +1.9
Florida (27)--Obama +2.7
Montana (3)--McCain +4.1
Georgia (15)--McCain +4.2
Arizona (10)--McCain +4.9
Ohio (20)--Obama +5.0
Nevada (5)--Obama +5.7
Virginia (13)--Obama +6.3
Colorado (9)--Obama +6.3
Pennsylvania (21)--Obama +8.2
West Virginia (5)--McCain +8.8
New Mexico (5)--Obama +9.1
South Dakota--McCain +9.1
New Hampshire (4)--Obama +10.7
Wisconsin (10)--Obama +11.1
Iowa (7)--Obama +11.6
Minnesota (10)--Obama +12.3
TODAY'S ELECTORAL VOTE PROJECTION:
Obama: 353
McCain: 185
The national polls stayed still today, and Obama still has about a 6-point lead.
I know you'll all help me in welcoming South Dakota to our very exclusive battleground list! No applause needed. Especially if your first name is John and your last name is McCain. A new Rasmussen poll puts McCain up by only 9 points in the state. I don't think that Barack Obama will win here unless it is a nationwide landslide, but still, my model shows that South Dakota is a closer race that New Hampshire, Wisconsin, Iowa, and Minnesota, so I felt obliged to put it on there.
McCain gained about a point in Missouri since yesterday's update, but that was just a retrospective reaction from the favorable numbers he got yesterday in the state.
The real story today is Pennsylvania. Three polls came out and confirmed that McCain is indeed closing in this state. The Morning Call tracking poll gives Obama an 8-point lead, ARG gives Obama a 6-point lead, and Rasmussen gives Obama only a 4-point lead--but the latter's methodology and internals were fishy (as I wrote about earlier).
McCain jumped up about a point and a half since yesterday in the Keystone State. And it's a good thing because he now absolutely needs it to become president. He is going to lose Colorado since more than half of the state has voted already and the number of Democrats has dwarfed the number of Republicans who have already voted.
So even if McCain wins Ohio, Florida, North Carolina, Missouri, Nevada, Indiana, Georgia, and Virginia, it won't be enough for him to reach 270 electoral votes. He still needs Pennsylvania. But that is still no easy feat--he is still down by about 8 points, but I would expect that to close up a bit more in the next few days to around 6 or 7.
Since there has been a lot of talk about McCain "closing" nationally and in a bunch of swing states. So I looked into how much he had actually gained ground in the 18 battleground states (sorry Arizona and South Dakota) in the past week:
McCain gained 4 points in Indiana, 2.6 points in Pennsylvania, 2.1 points in Missouri, 1.6 points in Montana, and 1.4 points in West Virginia.
Obama gained 3.7 points in New Hampshire, 2.7 points in Nevada, 1.5 points in Minnesota, and 1.3 points in North Dakota.
The rest of the states did not change by more than one point in the past week in either direction. McCain has gained one point nationally in the last week.
Let's take a look at where each candidate has gained ground in the last month:
McCain has gained ground in only 1 of those 18 states in the last month: West Virginia. And that was only by one point.
Obama has gained significant ground in many of the other states such as North Dakota (+9.4), Georgia (+4.5), Nevada (+3.8), Wisconsin (+3.7), New Hampshire (+3.4), Minnesota (+3.2), Ohio (+3.0), Virginia (+2.9), Montana (+2.8), Colorado (+2.5), North Carolina (+1.5), and Missouri (+1.1) in the last month.
The rest of the states did not change by more than one point in the past month in either direction. Obama has gained 2.4 points nationally in the last month.
So in the past week, McCain has made some good gains in states like Indiana, Pennsylvania and Missouri. But over the past month, he has not really closed well in any state.
He still has some major ground to make up--not just in Pennsylvania, but in his other must-win states: Ohio, Florida, North Carolina, Nevada, and Virginia. And he's just about out of time.
Missouri (11)--McCain +0.7
Indiana (11)--McCain +1.3
North Dakota (3)--McCain +1.6
North Carolina (15)--Obama +1.9
Florida (27)--Obama +2.7
Montana (3)--McCain +4.1
Georgia (15)--McCain +4.2
Arizona (10)--McCain +4.9
Ohio (20)--Obama +5.0
Nevada (5)--Obama +5.7
Virginia (13)--Obama +6.3
Colorado (9)--Obama +6.3
Pennsylvania (21)--Obama +8.2
West Virginia (5)--McCain +8.8
New Mexico (5)--Obama +9.1
South Dakota--McCain +9.1
New Hampshire (4)--Obama +10.7
Wisconsin (10)--Obama +11.1
Iowa (7)--Obama +11.6
Minnesota (10)--Obama +12.3
TODAY'S ELECTORAL VOTE PROJECTION:
Obama: 353
McCain: 185
The national polls stayed still today, and Obama still has about a 6-point lead.
I know you'll all help me in welcoming South Dakota to our very exclusive battleground list! No applause needed. Especially if your first name is John and your last name is McCain. A new Rasmussen poll puts McCain up by only 9 points in the state. I don't think that Barack Obama will win here unless it is a nationwide landslide, but still, my model shows that South Dakota is a closer race that New Hampshire, Wisconsin, Iowa, and Minnesota, so I felt obliged to put it on there.
McCain gained about a point in Missouri since yesterday's update, but that was just a retrospective reaction from the favorable numbers he got yesterday in the state.
The real story today is Pennsylvania. Three polls came out and confirmed that McCain is indeed closing in this state. The Morning Call tracking poll gives Obama an 8-point lead, ARG gives Obama a 6-point lead, and Rasmussen gives Obama only a 4-point lead--but the latter's methodology and internals were fishy (as I wrote about earlier).
McCain jumped up about a point and a half since yesterday in the Keystone State. And it's a good thing because he now absolutely needs it to become president. He is going to lose Colorado since more than half of the state has voted already and the number of Democrats has dwarfed the number of Republicans who have already voted.
So even if McCain wins Ohio, Florida, North Carolina, Missouri, Nevada, Indiana, Georgia, and Virginia, it won't be enough for him to reach 270 electoral votes. He still needs Pennsylvania. But that is still no easy feat--he is still down by about 8 points, but I would expect that to close up a bit more in the next few days to around 6 or 7.
Since there has been a lot of talk about McCain "closing" nationally and in a bunch of swing states. So I looked into how much he had actually gained ground in the 18 battleground states (sorry Arizona and South Dakota) in the past week:
McCain gained 4 points in Indiana, 2.6 points in Pennsylvania, 2.1 points in Missouri, 1.6 points in Montana, and 1.4 points in West Virginia.
Obama gained 3.7 points in New Hampshire, 2.7 points in Nevada, 1.5 points in Minnesota, and 1.3 points in North Dakota.
The rest of the states did not change by more than one point in the past week in either direction. McCain has gained one point nationally in the last week.
Let's take a look at where each candidate has gained ground in the last month:
McCain has gained ground in only 1 of those 18 states in the last month: West Virginia. And that was only by one point.
Obama has gained significant ground in many of the other states such as North Dakota (+9.4), Georgia (+4.5), Nevada (+3.8), Wisconsin (+3.7), New Hampshire (+3.4), Minnesota (+3.2), Ohio (+3.0), Virginia (+2.9), Montana (+2.8), Colorado (+2.5), North Carolina (+1.5), and Missouri (+1.1) in the last month.
The rest of the states did not change by more than one point in the past month in either direction. Obama has gained 2.4 points nationally in the last month.
So in the past week, McCain has made some good gains in states like Indiana, Pennsylvania and Missouri. But over the past month, he has not really closed well in any state.
He still has some major ground to make up--not just in Pennsylvania, but in his other must-win states: Ohio, Florida, North Carolina, Nevada, and Virginia. And he's just about out of time.
Weather on Election Day
I thought I'd look at what the weather forecast is for Tuesday because in the past, bad weather has driven town turnout and generally favored Republicans, who are generally more enthusiastic about their candidate. But this year, it looks like Democrats are more enthusiastic about their candidate and more likely to stick it out in the rain (or snow) to vote for their man.
So here's the weather forecast for all of the states in which a competitive presidential or senatorial race is expected:
Arizona--Clear; 51-83°
Colorado--Clear in the east, rainy in the west; 45-65°
Florida--Rainy on the eastern coast, clear everywhere else; 74-83°
Georgia--Rainy on the coast, clear everywhere else; 65-73°
Indiana--Clear; 66-74°
Iowa--Clear, showers in Sioux City; 64-70°
Kentucky--Clear, 69-74°
Michigan--Clear; 58-66°
Minnesota--Rainy; 57-63°
Mississippi--Clear; 72-78°
Missouri--Clear; 68-74°
Montana--Rainy; 41-53°
Nevada--Rainy in the northeast, clear everywhere else
New Jersey--Clear; 61-66°
New Mexico--Clear, 57-80°
North Carolina--Rainy on the coast, clear everywhere else; 61-68°
North Dakota--Rainy; 56-60°
Ohio--Clear; 64-73°
Oregon--Rainy; 43-53°
Pennsylvania--Clear; 63-67°
South Dakota--Rainy; 59-64°
Texas--Clear; 74-84°
Virginia--Clear; 64-68°
Washington--Rainy; 45-52°
West Virginia--Clear; 61-72°
Wisconsin--Rainy in the north, clear everywhere else; 59-66°
So overall, the weather looks pretty good for election day.
The only states where there might be problems with the weather throughout the state are Minnesota, Montana, North Dakota, Oregon, South Dakota, and Washington.
States that might have rain in a certain part of the state are Colorado, Florida, Georgia, Iowa, Nevada, North Carolina, and Wisconsin.
The bad weather might affect turnout in southeastern states of Florida, Georgia, and North Carolina. It is expected to rain on the coasts and on the eastern part of these states, which tend to lean Democratic. The rain may drive turnout down, depending on how enthusiastic the Democrats are.
Another place where the rain might have an effect is Montana, where the Democrats are much more enthusiastic. The Republican have no hope at the Governor, Senate or House levels, and Republicans might just decide to stay home, causing Barack Obama to win the state's three electoral votes.
Other than that, the weather should not play a huge role on election day--thank God.
Where They Are and Where They've Been
NBC/Wall Street Jounal co-pollster Peter Hart gave us this crunchy nougat to think about today on NBC's First Read:
John McCain and Sarah Palin have spent/will spend this week in North Carolina, Florida, Ohio, Virginia, and Pennsylvania.
Barack Obama and Joe Biden have spent/will spend this week in Missouri, Indiana, North Carolina, Florida, Ohio, Nevada, Colorado, Virginia, Pennsylvania, and Iowa.
The McCain-Palin campaign seems to be focused on the swing states with the most electoral votes (FL, OH, PA) and they seem worried about their standing in Virginia and North Carolina. Their internal polls probably have them slightly down or slightly head in these states.
Notice that neither McCain or Palin is campaigning in the West, which means that they are probably either giving up or taking their chances on Colorado, Nevada and New Mexico.
Meanwhile, Obama and Biden are campaigning in a wide variety of states across the country, from Nevada to Pennsylvania. It looks like their internal polls probably show a tighter race in Pennsylvania and Iowa, so they want to shore up their support their in the last week. Their internals are also showing a very close race in Indiana, North Carolina, Florida, Ohio, Nevada, and Virginia. Obama will be making his last campaign stop in Virginia on Monday night, showing that he thinks that this will be one of the most important races on Tuesday.
“Forget the polls, just look at what the candidates are doing and where they are spending money.” At this time in 2004, he notes, Kerry-Edwards were campaigning in Pennsylvania, Ohio, Wisconsin, Minnesota, Iowa, and Florida. In 2000, Gore-Lieberman were in the states of Missouri and Ohio, as well as in Florida. But in 2008, Obama and Biden AREN'T campaigning in Pennsylvania, Minnesota or Wisconsin. Instead, they're in Nevada, Colorado, Indiana, as well as the perennials of Ohio and Florida. “You do not have to read poll numbers -- just look at their travel schedule.”I think what Hart is saying is really interesting. Of course, I wouldn't forget the polls entirely, but where the candidates spend their last week really speaks volumes about where they think they have a shot of winning.
John McCain and Sarah Palin have spent/will spend this week in North Carolina, Florida, Ohio, Virginia, and Pennsylvania.
Barack Obama and Joe Biden have spent/will spend this week in Missouri, Indiana, North Carolina, Florida, Ohio, Nevada, Colorado, Virginia, Pennsylvania, and Iowa.
The McCain-Palin campaign seems to be focused on the swing states with the most electoral votes (FL, OH, PA) and they seem worried about their standing in Virginia and North Carolina. Their internal polls probably have them slightly down or slightly head in these states.
Notice that neither McCain or Palin is campaigning in the West, which means that they are probably either giving up or taking their chances on Colorado, Nevada and New Mexico.
Meanwhile, Obama and Biden are campaigning in a wide variety of states across the country, from Nevada to Pennsylvania. It looks like their internal polls probably show a tighter race in Pennsylvania and Iowa, so they want to shore up their support their in the last week. Their internals are also showing a very close race in Indiana, North Carolina, Florida, Ohio, Nevada, and Virginia. Obama will be making his last campaign stop in Virginia on Monday night, showing that he thinks that this will be one of the most important races on Tuesday.
Regarding Rasmussen's Pennsylvania Poll
Rasmussen came out with a new poll from Pennsylvania earlier today that showed that Obama is only ahead in the state by 4 points there, 51-47. This is a large leap from the 7-point lead that Obama had in a poll that they took two days ago. This struck me as bizarre, so I looked into how the poll was conducted.
Here are some of the internals from the Pennsylvania poll they took today, and the internals from the poll they took three days ago are in parentheses:
Overall:
Obama--51% (53%)
McCain--47% (46%)
Among Whites:
Obama--46% (46%)
McCain--52% (53%)
Among Blacks:
Obama--80% (93%)
McCain--20% (5%)
Notice that the totals among whites remain virtually unchanged. But are we really supposed to believe that McCain jumped 15% among African Americans in three days? No.
These numbers are fishy to say the least. Nothing drastic has changed the race in the last three days, and even if it did, I would expect Obama's support among whites to go down, not among blacks. This is just a sampling error that Rasmussen made, and should be taken into account before all you Democrats start worrying too much.
Now, I have always thought that Pennsylvania was closer than the polls were indicating. I did not believe that Obama had a double digit lead over McCain a week ago. It is apparent that McCain is closing in the state to some extent--the Morning Call tracking poll in Pennsylvania shows that McCain has gained 3 points on Obama in the last two days. They have McCain down by 8 points in the Keystone State.
I believe that the margin is somewhere in the middle of these two polls, and Obama has a 6 or 7-point lead over McCain. But seeing as this where the race is likely to be decided, let's look at some Pennsylvania voting history real quick. In every election since 1984, Pennsylvania has gone bluer than the rest of the country. Take a look.
1984
Pennsylvania--7.3% Republican Spread
National--18.2% Republican Spread
1988
Pennsylvania--2.3% Republican Spread
National--7.7% Republican Spread
1992
Pennsylvania--9.0% Democratic Spread
National--5.3% Democratic Spread
1996
Pennsylvania--9.2% Democratic Spread
National--8.5% Democratic Spread
2000
Pennsylvania--4.2% Democratic Spread
National--0.5% Democratic Spread
2004
Pennsylvania--2.5% Democratic Spread
National--2.4% Republican Spread
Now, let's take a look at the 2008 Pennsylvania and National averages based on recent polling:
2008
Pennsylvania--9.0% Democratic Spread
National--6.2% Democratic Spread
So basically, if Obama wins the popular vote, he will win Pennsylvania. Barack Obama's campaign manager David Axelrod announced today that Obama will not be visiting Pennsylvania in the last three days, which shows that they are fairly confident in winning the state. McCain's internals probably look a lot like the Rasmussen numbers, and that is why they are making this last-minute push.
Also, in 2004, John Kerry overperformed the polls by about 1.5% in Pennsylvania, so that should be taken into account when analyzing these numbers.
So, it still appears as though Obama does have some breathing room and I do think that he will win here. But I wouldn't take the state for granted.
Here are some of the internals from the Pennsylvania poll they took today, and the internals from the poll they took three days ago are in parentheses:
Overall:
Obama--51% (53%)
McCain--47% (46%)
Among Whites:
Obama--46% (46%)
McCain--52% (53%)
Among Blacks:
Obama--80% (93%)
McCain--20% (5%)
Notice that the totals among whites remain virtually unchanged. But are we really supposed to believe that McCain jumped 15% among African Americans in three days? No.
These numbers are fishy to say the least. Nothing drastic has changed the race in the last three days, and even if it did, I would expect Obama's support among whites to go down, not among blacks. This is just a sampling error that Rasmussen made, and should be taken into account before all you Democrats start worrying too much.
Now, I have always thought that Pennsylvania was closer than the polls were indicating. I did not believe that Obama had a double digit lead over McCain a week ago. It is apparent that McCain is closing in the state to some extent--the Morning Call tracking poll in Pennsylvania shows that McCain has gained 3 points on Obama in the last two days. They have McCain down by 8 points in the Keystone State.
I believe that the margin is somewhere in the middle of these two polls, and Obama has a 6 or 7-point lead over McCain. But seeing as this where the race is likely to be decided, let's look at some Pennsylvania voting history real quick. In every election since 1984, Pennsylvania has gone bluer than the rest of the country. Take a look.
1984
Pennsylvania--7.3% Republican Spread
National--18.2% Republican Spread
1988
Pennsylvania--2.3% Republican Spread
National--7.7% Republican Spread
1992
Pennsylvania--9.0% Democratic Spread
National--5.3% Democratic Spread
1996
Pennsylvania--9.2% Democratic Spread
National--8.5% Democratic Spread
2000
Pennsylvania--4.2% Democratic Spread
National--0.5% Democratic Spread
2004
Pennsylvania--2.5% Democratic Spread
National--2.4% Republican Spread
Now, let's take a look at the 2008 Pennsylvania and National averages based on recent polling:
2008
Pennsylvania--9.0% Democratic Spread
National--6.2% Democratic Spread
So basically, if Obama wins the popular vote, he will win Pennsylvania. Barack Obama's campaign manager David Axelrod announced today that Obama will not be visiting Pennsylvania in the last three days, which shows that they are fairly confident in winning the state. McCain's internals probably look a lot like the Rasmussen numbers, and that is why they are making this last-minute push.
Also, in 2004, John Kerry overperformed the polls by about 1.5% in Pennsylvania, so that should be taken into account when analyzing these numbers.
So, it still appears as though Obama does have some breathing room and I do think that he will win here. But I wouldn't take the state for granted.
Friday, October 31, 2008
State of the Race: 4 Days to Go
Many members of the media were talking today about how John McCain is "closing." Really? Because today's polls don't reflect that at all. In fact, Barack Obama increased his lead in the national tracking polls as well as in many state polls today. I guess the major networks want to say the race is getting closer so more people will watch.
We have 31 new state polls today. Here's the battleground state averages with four days to go before election day:
Missouri (11)--Obama +0.2
Indiana (11)--McCain +1.4
North Dakota (3)--McCain +1.4
North Carolina (15)--Obama +1.9
Florida (27)--Obama +2.9
Georgia (15)--McCain +3.8
Montana (3)--McCain +4.0
Ohio (20)--Obama +5.1
Arizona (10)--McCain +5.2
Nevada (5)--Obama +5.8
Colorado (9)--Obama +6.6
Virginia (13)--Obama +6.6
West Virginia (5)--McCain +8.5
New Mexico (5)--Obama +8.9
Pennsylvania (21)--Obama +9.6
New Hampshire (4)--Obama +11.0
Wisconsin (10)--Obama +11.3
Iowa (7)--Obama +11.7
Minnesota (10)--Obama +12.4
TODAY'S ELECTORAL VOTE PROJECTION:
Obama: 364
McCain: 174
John McCain really can't afford to have a day where he does not make up any ground in the battleground states, let alone lose ground in them.
Since yesterday's update, McCain has gone down by a half of a point in New Mexico, largely due to the latest PPP poll that has him down by 17 there. Now, PPP is a left-leaning pollster, so I would translate that margin into something more like 13 or 14, which is still very strong. McCain has gone down almost two points in North Dakota as a result of a Research 2000 poll that puts him up by only one point in the state. Obama has started airing advertisements there again.
McCain continues to lose ground in Arizona, and now states like Colorado, Virginia and Nevada are more competitive than his home state. The Obama campaign has started advertising in Arizona yesterday as a result of these hopeful new numbers. But I must say, that is a bit obnoxious. I mean, there's no way that Arizona is going to decide the election--they just want to add insult to injury. But, I guess they have more money than they know what to do with.
We had six polls from New Hampshire out today, where Obama is leading from anywhere between 7-15 points. I think this slew of evidence shows that he is right on track to win there.
On top of that, the majority of Colorado and New Mexico have already cast their ballots through early voting, and early totals show that far more Democrats have showed up than Republicans so far. That does not bode well for McCain.
The key states of Missouri, North Carolina, Florida, Ohio, Nevada, Colorado, and Virginia remain unchanged since yesterday. McCain needs to be closing in these states, but instead Obama still has small or even some large leads in some of these states.
The only states that are moving in McCain's direction are Indiana, Montana and Pennsylvania. Two recent polls from Montana show that McCain is gaining slightly there, and his lead is just outside the margin of error. The same goes for Indiana, which looks to be more and more promising for McCain.
The only evidence where I see McCain "closing" is in Pennsylvania. But his gains are nothing to write home about. The Morning Call tracking poll has him down by (only!) 10 points, down a point from yesterday, while a Strategic Vision poll has him down by 5 points. But keep in mind that Strategic Vision has had a Republican lean and some very erratic polling in Pennsylvania all year. This result is probably what his campaign's internal polls looked like when they decided to go all-in there last week.
So basically, Pennsylvania is McCain's last chance. Even if he does pull off a miracle and win the Keystone state, it does not automatically mean victory for him. Obama has something of a firewall in Colorado, Virginia, and Nevada--totaling 27 electoral votes to Pennsylvania's 21. Even if McCain wins Pennsylvania, Ohio, Florida, Missouri and North Carolina (all states he's currently behind in), all Obama needs is those three firewall states and he has 270 electoral votes.
I'm sure the electoral map and all of the different scenarios for an Obama victory is giving McCain campaign manager Steve Schmidt nightmares.
We have 31 new state polls today. Here's the battleground state averages with four days to go before election day:
Missouri (11)--Obama +0.2
Indiana (11)--McCain +1.4
North Dakota (3)--McCain +1.4
North Carolina (15)--Obama +1.9
Florida (27)--Obama +2.9
Georgia (15)--McCain +3.8
Montana (3)--McCain +4.0
Ohio (20)--Obama +5.1
Arizona (10)--McCain +5.2
Nevada (5)--Obama +5.8
Colorado (9)--Obama +6.6
Virginia (13)--Obama +6.6
West Virginia (5)--McCain +8.5
New Mexico (5)--Obama +8.9
Pennsylvania (21)--Obama +9.6
New Hampshire (4)--Obama +11.0
Wisconsin (10)--Obama +11.3
Iowa (7)--Obama +11.7
Minnesota (10)--Obama +12.4
TODAY'S ELECTORAL VOTE PROJECTION:
Obama: 364
McCain: 174
John McCain really can't afford to have a day where he does not make up any ground in the battleground states, let alone lose ground in them.
Since yesterday's update, McCain has gone down by a half of a point in New Mexico, largely due to the latest PPP poll that has him down by 17 there. Now, PPP is a left-leaning pollster, so I would translate that margin into something more like 13 or 14, which is still very strong. McCain has gone down almost two points in North Dakota as a result of a Research 2000 poll that puts him up by only one point in the state. Obama has started airing advertisements there again.
McCain continues to lose ground in Arizona, and now states like Colorado, Virginia and Nevada are more competitive than his home state. The Obama campaign has started advertising in Arizona yesterday as a result of these hopeful new numbers. But I must say, that is a bit obnoxious. I mean, there's no way that Arizona is going to decide the election--they just want to add insult to injury. But, I guess they have more money than they know what to do with.
We had six polls from New Hampshire out today, where Obama is leading from anywhere between 7-15 points. I think this slew of evidence shows that he is right on track to win there.
On top of that, the majority of Colorado and New Mexico have already cast their ballots through early voting, and early totals show that far more Democrats have showed up than Republicans so far. That does not bode well for McCain.
The key states of Missouri, North Carolina, Florida, Ohio, Nevada, Colorado, and Virginia remain unchanged since yesterday. McCain needs to be closing in these states, but instead Obama still has small or even some large leads in some of these states.
The only states that are moving in McCain's direction are Indiana, Montana and Pennsylvania. Two recent polls from Montana show that McCain is gaining slightly there, and his lead is just outside the margin of error. The same goes for Indiana, which looks to be more and more promising for McCain.
The only evidence where I see McCain "closing" is in Pennsylvania. But his gains are nothing to write home about. The Morning Call tracking poll has him down by (only!) 10 points, down a point from yesterday, while a Strategic Vision poll has him down by 5 points. But keep in mind that Strategic Vision has had a Republican lean and some very erratic polling in Pennsylvania all year. This result is probably what his campaign's internal polls looked like when they decided to go all-in there last week.
So basically, Pennsylvania is McCain's last chance. Even if he does pull off a miracle and win the Keystone state, it does not automatically mean victory for him. Obama has something of a firewall in Colorado, Virginia, and Nevada--totaling 27 electoral votes to Pennsylvania's 21. Even if McCain wins Pennsylvania, Ohio, Florida, Missouri and North Carolina (all states he's currently behind in), all Obama needs is those three firewall states and he has 270 electoral votes.
I'm sure the electoral map and all of the different scenarios for an Obama victory is giving McCain campaign manager Steve Schmidt nightmares.
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