KY: A Democratic Proxy War's A-Brewin'

It appears that Kentucky Democrats are already taking sides in what is likely to be a hotly contested primary to take on the highly vulnerable Sen. Jim Bunning (R) next year.

In a rather unsurprising move, Gov. Steve Beshear (D) endorsed his lieutenant governor, Dan Mongiardo, for his 2010 Senate campaign--despite the fact that Mongiardo will likely face prominent opposition for the Democratic nomination.

Politico reports that state Attorney General Jack Conway (D) is set to announce his candidacy in the coming weeks. Conway has recently talked with two other Democrats who have been considering jumping in the race--state Auditor Crit Luallen and Rep. Ben Chandler--and it appears that they will stay out of the race and line up behind him.

Thus, a proxy fight emerges between Beshear-Mongiardo and Conway-Luallen-Chandler. The uglier this fight gets, the better it is for Bunning, who will need all the help he can get to win what will be the toughest re-election challenge of his life.

Friday Updates

Illinois: The Chicago Sun-Times reports that Commerce Secretary William Daley (D)--who is also the brother of Chicago Mayor Richard Daley--is considering running for Sen. Roland Burris' (D-IL) Senate seat--regardless of whether the embattled Senator runs again for the seat. If Daley jumps in the race, he will likely face off against state Treasurer Alexi Giannoulias, who has not yet announced his candidacy but is rumored to be Senate Minority Whip Dick Durbin's top pick for the post.

Louisiana: Bayou Buzz reports that former Rep. John Cooksey is considering challenging Sen. David Vitter (R-LA)--who is plagued by his involvement in the DC Madam scandal last year. We not have three Republicans--Secretary of State Jay Dardenne, Family Research Council President Tony Perking and Cooksey--eying a primary challenge to Vitter.

Kentucky: Angry over the way Republican leaders have been treating him these past few months, Sen. Jim Bunning (R-KY) is reportedly considering resigning from the Senate to let Kentucky's Democratic governor, Steve Beshear, appoint a replacement--thus giving the Democrats their 60th seat in the Senate (assuming Al Franken prevails in Minnesota). Now, I think that this is an empty threat from Bunning that came out of frustration, in order to get treated better by the Senate Republican leadership. But if he does go through with it--and Bunning is crazy enough to do it--we can expect Gov. Beshear to appoint his Democratic lieutenant governor, Dan Mongiardo, to the seat. Mongiardo has already announced that he will run for the seat in 2010, so it seems like a natural pick.

UPDATE: Bunning denied the report in a statement. "It's not true. I intend to fulfill my obligation to the people of Kentucky. If you are going to write something like this, you better make your sources known, because they are lying," Bunning said. But one of his staffers didn't deny that he said it.

Oh, Jim, between calling your minority leader "deaf," predicting Ruth Bader Ginsburg's death, and now this, I think it's safe to say that it's going to be a hoot watching you these next two years.

Tuesday Recap

Illinois: Yesterday, Roland Burris met with Senate Majority Whip Dick Durbin to discuss his future. Durbin suggested that Burris resign, but the Chicago Sun-Times' Lynn Sweet reported that Burris strongly suggested that he would not resign due to the current controversies that surround him, but he also suggested that he would not run for the seat outright in 2010. Then, a Burris spokesman said that Burris had made no decisions about 2010. The saga continues...

Kentucky: NRSC chair John Cornyn said that the last week's meeting with state Senate President David Williams (R) was just a courtesy visit, and that he is not recruiting anyone to challenge the unpopular and vulnerable Sen. Jim Bunning (R) in a primary. He also added:“As long as he is running, I will be supportive of him.” Bunning rejected this olive branch: “I don’t believe anything John Cornyn says. I’ve had miscommunications with John Cornyn from, I guess, the first week of this current session of the Senate.” He then added this firecracker: “If they recruited someone to run in a primary against me, I would sue them because they are not following their bylaws.” So it looks like Bunning's going to be the GOP Senate nominee in Kentucky. The DSCC can start celebrating now.

Pennsylvania: RNC Chairman Michael Steele threatened to withhold RNC funds from Sen. Arlen Specter (R) and is open to supporting more conservative primary challengers over Specter for his 2010 reelection bid--mainly because of his vote on the stimulus package. Then the chair of the Pennsylvania Republican Party suggested that the state party might not support Specter in a contested primary. He is gonna face one hell of a primary challenge from the right yet again this election cycle.

KY: NRSC Setting Up Primary Challenge for Bunning?

KYPolitics reports:

A political bombshell this weekend from several well-placed GOP sources, in Frankfort and Washington: State senate President David Williams met with officials at the National Republican Senatorial Committee (NRSC) on Friday to discuss his interest in running for the U.S. Senate seat currently held by Jim Bunning. Williams, in town for the National Governor's Association winter meeting, impressed GOP officials, who called his interest "serious."

It's no secret that NRSC chair John Cornyn and Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell don't want Bunning to run for reelection, but it is almost unheard of for a campaign committee to actively support another candidate over the incumbent in a primary.

Bunning is unpopular, but not so unpopular within his own party that he would automatically lose to someone like Williams in the GOP primary.

As the folks over at Swing State Project point out, Williams supported a tax increase on alcohol and tobacco, "something that wouldn't go over well with the GOP rank-and-file." Bunning, meanwhile, has pretty good conservative bona fides and might be hard to take down in the primary, much to the dismay of Senate Republicans.

KY: Poll Shows Dead Heat

A new Research 2000 poll shows a statistical dead heat between the six major potential candidates for the 2010 Senate race in Kentucky.

The poll pitted two Republicans (incumbent Sen. Jim Bunning and Sec. of State Trey Grayson) against four Democrats (Rep. Ben Chandler, state Attorney Gen. Jack Conway, state Auditor Crit Luallen, and Lt. Gov. Dan Mongiardo) in hypothetical general election match-ups.

The poll actually had some good news for Bunning regarding his electability, even as Republican leaders are pressuring him to retire. That said, his leads over all four Democrats are within the margin of error, and he would face the race of his life against any of these four Democrats. The head-to-heads with Grayson and the four Democrats yield even tighter results. Here are the numbers:

Bunning--45%
Chandler--42%

Bunning--46%
Conway--42%

Bunning--45%
Luallen--41%

Bunning--46%
Mongiardo--42%

Grayson--42%
Chandler--42%

Grayson--42%
Conway--41%

Grayson--42%
Luallen--42%

Grayson--43%
Mongiardo--42%

These results are bizarre because Bunning only holds a 41% favorability rating among Kentucky voters, while 47% view him unfavorably. That’s a lower favorability rating than President Obama, who lost the state by 19 points in November.

He still holds relatively stong support in Kentucky despite his poor favorability rating most likely because of the state's strong conservative leanings. Kentuckyans are relatively familiar with the four Democrats tested in the poll.

Mongiardo, the only announced Democratic candidate so far, holds a favorability rating of 50/40 and is most well-known among the four.

The next Democrat that is most likely to jump in is Conway, who holds a 48/27 favorability rating, which is stronger than Mongiardo's numbers, but he is more unknown to Kentucky voters at this point.

Chandler and Luallen, who both hold excellent approval ratings, are thought to be less likely to enter the race, but could still give Bunning a good challenge if they decided to run.

Grayson polls at least evenly with all four Democrats despite the fact he has very low name recognition, which means that he potentially has room to make gains. He would probably the stronger general election candidate for the GOP, but will probably only enter the race if Bunning chooses to retire (which is unlikely because Bunning has reiterated time and time again that he is running).

So to sum up, Bunning--despite his unpopularity--could still potentially hold his seat given how conservative Kentucky is. But at best it would be a nail biter, as all four of the Democrats included in the poll have the potential to defeat him. Bunning is still undoubtedly the most vulnerable incumbent of the 2010 cycle.

KY: Mongiardo to Challenge Bunning

Kentucky Lieutenant Governor Dan Mongiardo is the first Democrat to formally announce that he will be challenging the unpopular and underfunded incumbent, Sen. Jim Bunning (R-KY), in 2010.

Mongiardo was the Democratic nominee that faced off against Bunning in 2004, but back then he was only a little-known state senator. No one thought the race was going to be competitive, but despite the lack of attention and funds from the DSCC and being vastly outspent by Bunning, Mongiardo just barely lost to him, 51% to 49%.

Now Mongiardo, if he is the Democratic nominee, is much more well-known and has a higher profile in the state as the lieutenant governor, and he will receive plenty of cash and support from the state and national party, including that of the DSCC.

In a complete reversal from 2004, Bunning seems to be the one who is underfunded. He filed a campaign finance report last week which listed only $27,357 in campaign contributions between October 1 and December 1, and showed that he only had $150,000 on hand. As the Cincinnati Enquirer notes, “the next closest Republican had about $900,000 in the bank." Bunning has said that he will need to raise $10 million to win reelection. Yikes.

For those of us that have been following the 2010 Senate elections closely, it is clear that Bunning is the most vulnerable incumbent in next year's election. So vulnerable in fact that national Republicans have been urging him not to run for reelection, thinking that they will have a better shot of holding the seat with another Republican on the ticket. It is very rare that a party wants one of its incumbents to quit, but Bunning is so politically weak that he is an exception.

Shortly after the 2008 elections, Bunning announced that he would run for reelection in 2010 but few are holding him to his word, given his age (he will be 79 on Election Day) and his awful fundraising. If he doesn't retire, Republicans should field a very strong primary challenger to take him down. If that fails, they should be very very worried.

But whether he runs or retires, Mongiardo's candidacy ensures that this race will be one of the most competitive in the country, and arguably the Democrats' best pick-up opportunity.

That said, Mongiardo could face fierce competition in the Democratic primary, as state Attorney General Jack Conway and state Auditor Crit Luallen have been mulling a run. Rep. Ben Chandler has also been mentioned as a potential candidate, but is considered less likely to run than the other three Democrats.

KY: GOP Urges Bunning to Retire

Unnamed Republican sources are "privately urging" Sen. Jim Bunning (R-KY) to retire at the end of his term in 2010 amid concerns that he would have a very hard time winning reelection.

Politico reports:

Some Republicans are privately urging Sen. Jim Bunning (R-Ky.) to step down at the end of his term amid growing concerns that he can’t win reelection in 2010.

According to two GOP sources, leading Republican fundraisers in Kentucky are hesitant to raise money for Bunning and have told him he should not seek a third term.

“They want him to realize he’s had a good run but that it’s time to move on. These people want to win, and they realize he could easily lose this seat,” said one leading Kentucky Republican operative who requested anonymity to speak candidly.

While national campaign officials usually urge their incumbents to remain in office — recognizing it’s tougher to defend an open seat — even leading Republicans seem unconvinced Bunning can win reelection.

Asked if Bunning was the best candidate to run or if there were better GOP candidates, National Republican Senatorial Committee Chairman John Cornyn of Texas demurred: “I don’t know. I think it’s really up to Sen. Bunning."

In a statement, Bunning said:

“It’s a free country. Anybody can run for anything they choose. I am gearing up, and I look forward to the challenge of taking on whoever comes out of the Democrat primary in May of 2010."