AK: Palin Won't Challenge Murkowski

Gov. Sarah Palin (R) announced that she will be holding a fundraiser for the re-election campaign of Sen. Lisa Murkowski (R)--ending speculation that she will challenge Murkowski in the GOP primary in 2010.

This essentially clears the path for Murkowski to win re-election and makes it so the Republican party will not have to deal with a media-frenzied, expensive and nasty primary next year.

Palin has not yet announced if she plans on running for re-election in 2010 as she gears up for the 2012 presidential race.

AK-Sen: Palin vs. Murkowski Polls Show Vast Contradiction

About two weeks ago, a Research 2000 poll was released that showed that Gov. Sarah Palin would crush Sen. Lisa Murkowski (R-AK) in a Republican primary by a margin of 55% to 31%. At that point, I noted that the seat was Palin's for the taking, referencing those numbers.

But then, in a complete 48-point reversal, a new Dittman Research poll shows Murkowski leading Palin 57% to 33% in a hypothetical match-up between the two among Republican primary voters.

So what the hell is going on here?

Well first, there's reason to be suspicious of the Dittman poll. It turns out it was commissioned by conservative radio host Dan Fagan, not KTUU, the local TV station who's name was in the title of the poll. And Fagan is most certainly not a fan of Palin and is a big fan of Murkowski, who he knows personally. So I wouldn't put my complete faith in this poll.

Second, Alaska has proven to be the most difficult state in the country to poll. In the 2008 election, the polls were off by a long shot in the presidential, Senate, and House races. Here's Nate Silver's theory:

[Alaska's] residents are in a strange time zone and keep strange schedules; it has very high rates of cellphone usage; it has highly unusual demographics. Several pollsters, including Research 2000, had no idea that Don Young would hang on to defeat Ethan Berkowitz in November, nor that Ted Stevens would come so close to Mark Begich.

So in sum, I have learned not to trust any poll from Alaska, but I'd say the Research 2000 poll is more viable and legitimate. But the real preference of Alaska Republicans in a Palin v. Murkowski race is probably somewhere in the middle of these two nearly polar opposite polls.

If I were Sarah Palin, I would think long and hard about challenging Murkowski for her Senate seat and giving up her own seat in the governor's mansion leading up to a 2012 run.

AK-Sen: Palin Would Beat Murkowski in Senate Primary

According to a new Research 2000 poll, Sarah Palin would defeat incumbent Sen. Lisa Murkowski (R-AK) in a Republican senatorial primary by 24 points. Here are the numbers.

Palin--55%
Murkowski--31%

So it looks like if Palin wants to go to Washington leading up to a 2012 run for the presidency, the job is hers. Murkowski has already warned Palin to stay away from the race, and that she would give Palin a "tough election."

This Research 2000 poll also pitted Palin and Murkowski against two potential Democratic candidates, former Gov. Tony Knowles and state Sen. Hollis French. Here are those numbers.

Murkowski--49%
Knowles--41%

Murkowski--56%
French--27%

Palin--53%
Knowles--39%

Palin--58%
French--27%

So it looks as though Palin would be more electable than Murkowski as well against at least these two Democrats in a general election. Murkowski better hope that Palin doesn't run.

The poll was taken December 15-17 and has a 4% margin of error.

Ted Stevens Concedes

Republican Sen. Ted Stevens of Alaska conceded to Democrat Mark Begich earlier today, and has announced that he will not seek a recount.

With nearly all the votes counted, Begich leads by 3,724 votes, or 1.2%, over Stevens. Thus ends Stevens's forty-year long reign in the Senate.

It also dashes Sarah Palin's hope of becoming a Senator before 2012.

Now, the Democrats have officially picked up seven seats, and Sen. Joe Lieberman of Connecticut will remain in the Democratic caucus, giving them 58 seats (including Independent Sen. Bernie Sanders of Vermont).

In Minnesota, all of the ballots have been counted and Republican Sen. Norm Coleman leads Democrat Al Franken by 215 votes. However, an automatic manual recount (that's by hand) of all 2.9 million votes started today and thousands of contested ballots will be fought over one by one in the coming weeks. The recount will be overseen by a five-man board consisting of Minnesota secretary of state Mark Richie (a Democrat) and four state judges. It is being reported that it could take up to a month.

In Georgia, both sides are gearing up for the December 2 runoff election between Republican Sen. Saxby Chambliss and Democrat Jim Martin. John McCain and other marquee Republican names have been or will be down there campaigning for Chambliss, while Bill Clinton will hold a rally with Martin in Atlanta. It should be close, but I'd give the edge to Chambliss.

If the Democrats pull off a miracle and win both of these seats, then they will have their 60-seat filibuster-proof majority. But it is still highly unlikely.

Begich Will Win Alaska Senate Race

With 14,626 of the 24,000 ballots left to count today, Democrat Mark Begich now has a 2,374 vote lead over Republican Ted Stevens. The remaining results are expected to be counted by the end of the day, but Stevens would need to win the remaining votes by more than a 65-35 margin, and so far the early, absentee and provisional ballots (which are the votes that are still being counted) have heavily favored Begich.

Begich currently has a 0.77% lead over Stevens, and the only way a recount funded by the state can occur is if the margin is within 0.5%. Stevens might pay the $15,000 needed to pay for a privately funded recount. And that is chump change for Stevens.

But that's just going to be one last desperate attempt to prolong the process and salvage his long-held seat.

Nevertheless, barring a miracle, Mark Begich will be the next U.S. Senator from the weird state of Alaska.

Update (9:38 PM): Begich now leads Stevens by 3,724 votes.

Begich Takes Lead in Alaska Senate Race

Alaska's division of elections counted about 60,000 of the absentee, early and questioned ballots yesterday, and they broke heavily in Democrat Mark Begich's favor.

Before yesterday's count, Begich (left) trailed Sen. Ted Stevens by 3,353 votes. But now, Begich leads Stevens by 814 votes--132,196 to 131,382.

And according to FiveThirtyEight.com, "the remaining votes come from Begich-friendly districts." State elections chief Gail Fenumiai confirmed this by saying that the state's most populous region, based in Anchorage, won't count its ballots until either Monday or Wednesday. Begich is currently the mayor of Anchorage, so he is expected to do very well there, further boosting his chances of winning the seat.

The state still needs to count at least 15,000 questioned ballots and an estimated 25,000 absentees, so this thing is far from over. But it is safe to say that Begich is the overwhelming favorite to win the contested Alaska Senate seat.

It is unclear whether the Republican Party really wants Stevens to win reelection. They want a clean break from the Bush administration as well as corruption, and many Republican Senators do not want their party to be associated with the man. One of the most conservative members of the Senate, Republican Senator Jim DeMint of South Carolina has said that he will vote to expel Stevens from the Republican caucus if he wins reelection. On the other hand, a Stevens loss does get the Democrats one step closer to that 60-seat filibuster-proof majority.

If Begich does end up winning this thing, it effectively shuts the door on Sarah Palin's chances of becoming a U.S. Senator, thus helping keep her out of national politics until 2012. If Stevens was expelled from the Senate, she could have ran for the seat in the 2010 special election that would have taken place, and could have boasted that she had executive and legislative experience. But then again, she would lost her credibility as a Washington outsider. And we all know how much she loves to tote that title.

Meanwhile, the Senate race in Minnesota is getting ugly and bitter. Republican Sen. Norm Coleman leads Democrat Al Franken by 206 votes but the vote total has changed drastically since last Tuesday. Coleman was up by about 700 votes at one point, but that lead has shrunk considerably. Minnesota election officials are still counting votes.

An automatic hand recount of nearly 3 million vote will start on Nov. 18, and both Coleman and Franken have hired literally hundreds of lawyers each to deal with the inevitable legal debacle. The recount is expected to stretch into mid-December. Coleman's people have already started accusing Minnesota Secretary of State Mark Ritchie, who is a Democrat, to be biased. They are also tying him to acorn in attempt to try and invalidate him. Expect this thing to get really ugly over the next month.

Something Smells Funny in Alaska

It really does, and I don't think it's that dead moose that Sarah Palin shot from a helicopter. Wouldn't you expect that turnout in Alaska to increase with their first native daughter on a national ticket and an extremely close Senate race? Yeah, I would think so too.

But according to initial reports, turnout in Alaska is down 14% from 2004. On top of that, the polls taken right before presidential election showed John McCain up by 14 points, but he won by 25 points. The polls also showed that Democratic Senate candidate Mark Begich ahead by between 8-22 points. But with most of the votes counted, convicted felon Sen. Ted Stevens (above) narrowly leads Begich. Those same polls also showed Democrat Ethan Berkowitz leading Rep. Don Young--another Alaskan politician under investigation--but Young is handily beating Berkowitz.

So there seems to be an across-the-board polling failure in Alaska, while the polls were very accurate everywhere else in the country. I don't really know what to make of it, but something isn't right.

Meanwhile, Ted Stevens leads Mark Begich by 3,353 votes with 100% of the precincts reporting, but there are currently at least 9,500 early votes remaining to be counted in Alaska. In addition, there are more than 50,000 absentee votes. Lastly, there are at least 18,000 "questioned" ballots, which consist principally of voters who may have cast ballots away from their home precincts. Begich has led so far among early and absentee votes, meaning that it is very possible that he could close the gap or even pull ahead of Stevens. So this race is still a toss-up. Nate Silver has a good piece on this race.

Senate Republicans and Democrats alike are calling for Stevens's expulsion from the Senate during the lame duck session--regardless of whether or not he is re-elected. If they get the two-thirds majority that is needed to expel him, guess who gets to appoint a new senator? You guessed it: Sarah Palin.

And no, Palin cannot appoint herself to the Senate. But, she can resign as governor so Lieutenant Governor Sean Parnell will then become governor, and then have him appoint her to the Senate. Thus, she could become a more central figure in national politics and stay in the spotlight leading up to her probable run for the presidency in 2012. There is a lot more riding on this seat than people think.

And with all of this corruption and ethics scandals and reverse Bradley effect with convicted felons going on in America's frozen tundra, I am considering joining the Alaskan Independence Party.