State of the Race: 90 Minutes to Go

Well, it's finally here: election day. There have already been reports of long lines and voting problems, and I'm sure there's much more of that coming in the final few hours that the polls are open.

The first polls close at 6:00 P.M. eastern time in Indiana and Kentucky.

The good news for John McCain is that it is raining in Pennsylvania, Virginia and North Carolina. Rain lowers turnout and lower turnout usually helps Republicans because low-income voters--who tend to be Democrats--have historically been more discouraged from voting based on the weather. Now, this year may be different, but any little thing that affects turnout could make a difference.

Karl Rove predicted that Barack Obama would defeat John McCain 338 to 200 in the electoral college, and he also said that McCain would hang on to Indiana, North Carolina and Missouri by a thread, which means that he thinks that these states could conceivably go to Obama.

The final electoral prediction map at RealClearPolitics.com is Obama 338, McCain 200 as well. They also predict that Obama will win the popular vote by 7.6%.

Electoral-Vote.com predicts that Obama will win 353-174, with 11 (Missouri) tied. FiveThirtyEight.com projects that Obama will win 353-185, and they project that Obama will win the popular vote by 6.1%.

Yesterday I predicted that Obama would win 359 electoral votes to McCain's 179. My big shockers were Montana and North Dakota, which I predicted would both go to Obama by small margins. I also predicted that Obama would win the popular vote by 5.2%.

But now, let's take one last look at the average of the polls for each of the 20 battleground states and my final projection based on these numbers:

Missouri (11)--McCain +0.3
North Carolina (15)--Obama +0.5
Florida (27)--Obama +1.5
North Dakota (3)--McCain +1.6
Indiana (11)--McCain +1.6
Ohio (20)--Obama +3.0
Montana (3)--McCain +3.5
Georgia (15)--McCain +3.6
Arizona (10)--McCain +4.1
Virginia (13)--Obama +4.7
Nevada (5)--Obama +5.8
Colorado (9)--Obama +6.0
Pennsylvania (21)--Obama +7.8
New Mexico (5)--Obama +8.3
South Dakota--McCain +8.7
West Virginia (5)--McCain +9.9
Minnesota (10)--Obama +10.3
New Hampshire (4)--Obama +11.1
Wisconsin (10)--Obama +11.2
Iowa (7)--Obama +13.3

FINAL ELECTORAL VOTE PROJECTION:
Obama: 353
McCain: 185

FINAL POPULAR VOTE PROJECTION:
Obama +7.0

So the polls are showing that Missouri and North Carolina are going to be the tightest states tonight. They also expect the margins of victory in Florida, North Dakota, Indiana, Ohio, Montana, Georgia, Arizona, and Virginia to be within five points.

In addition, they expect the margins of victory in Nevada, Colorado, Pennsylvania, New Mexico, South Dakota, and West Virginia to be in 5-10 point range. They also seem to show that Obama will win Minnesota, New Hampshire, Wisconsin, and Iowa by over 10 points.

Now, if the polls are systematically wrong, of course the above prediction will be off by a lot. But the polls have been relatively reliable right in the days before the last few elections.

I think I have analyzed enough for now. I will let the results speak for themselves. If you have not voted yet, please do so and get a spot in line before its too late!

I know you've already heard this, but whatever happens tonight will be historic. America could elect its first African American president, or it could elect its first female to the position of Vice President.

In fact, the primaries alone were incredibly historic. Barack Obama defeated the "inevitable" Hillary Clinton (and her husband), and John McCain came back from being written off by nearly everyone to claim the Republican nomination. There will be full chapters written about this election in history textbooks everywhere.

Thank you to all of those who have consistently (or inconsistently) read this blog over the past 11 months, and to those who have not been too judgmental or accusatory of the "non-partisan" claim at the top of the page. I honestly have tried my best to keep this site "fair and balanced." Whatever happens in the next 5-10 hours will profoundly affect the future of this country, for better or for worse.

State of the Race: 1 Day to Go

It's so close I can almost taste it. Only 20 more hours until the first polls close in Indiana and Kentucky (6:00 EST).

We have 41 new state polls today. All I can say is that things do not look good for John McCain. Here are today's battleground state averages:

Missouri (11)--McCain +0.6
North Carolina (15)--Obama +0.7
North Dakota (3)--McCain +1.3
Indiana (11)--McCain +1.5
Florida (27)--Obama +2.3
Montana (3)--McCain +3.4
Ohio (20)--Obama +3.8
Georgia (15)--McCain +4.2
Arizona (10)--McCain +4.4
Virginia (13)--Obama +4.9
Nevada (5)--Obama +5.5
Colorado (9)--Obama +6.1
Pennsylvania (21)--Obama +7.9
New Mexico (5)--Obama +8.2
West Virginia (5)--McCain +8.7
South Dakota--McCain +8.7
Minnesota (10)--Obama +10.3
New Hampshire (4)--Obama +10.9
Wisconsin (10)--Obama +11.1
Iowa (7)--Obama +13.3

TODAY'S ELECTORAL VOTE PROJECTION:
Obama: 353
McCain: 185

The national polls converged today and it looks like Barack Obama has about a 6-7 point lead. All 14 of the national polls (plus the Research 2000 tracking poll) have Obama up by 5-11 points.

None of the battleground states have shifted drastically since yesterday, but Obama appears to have improved his standing by a fraction of a point in a number of states. And yes, that is significant, because one half of a point in one state could be the difference between President Obama and President McCain.

It's looking pretty clear that Obama will carry of all the states that John Kerry won in 2004. Despite the McCain campaign's strategy and all of the hype, Pennsylvania just does not seem in play, barring divine intervention. McCain is down by 8 points there still, which is far outside the margin of error.

It's also fairly certain that Obama will win Iowa and New Mexico. If he wins all of the states I just mentioned, he will have 264 electoral votes, and would need 5 more to tie or 6 more to win.

He has a lot, and I mean a LOT or different ways of getting those 5 or 6 electoral votes. The easiest state to get him there is Colorado, followed by Nevada, Virginia, Ohio, Florida, North Carolina, Missouri, Indiana, Georgia, or the combination of North Dakota and Montana.

If McCain loses Pennsylvania--and I really believe he will--he must win each and every one of those states. He is behind in many of those states going into election day, and does have a good shot of winning a few of them. But he will almost certainly not win all of them.

McCain's only hope now is that either the polls are all significantly wrong or that America is much more racist than everyone thinks it is and there is some kind of massive nationwide Bradley effect. And even that may not be enough to overcome the kind of deficit he has right now.

Let's just say--for kicks and giggles--that it's the best case scenario for McCain and the polls were way off and there's a Bradley effect and he does win Pennsylvania. He then only has 25 electoral votes of breathing room. Meaning that if Obama wins Colorado, Virginia, and Nevada--all states that he's up by 5 points or more in--he wins the election anyway. Or it could be any of the other must-win states for McCain that puts Obama over the top.

McCain has one, maybe two paths to 270. Obama has dozens. Let's just put it this way. If you're a McCain supporter, be afraid. Be very afraid.

I'll be back with my final "State of the Race" update sometime before 6:00 P.M. eastern time tomorrow. If you are eligible, please get out there and vote tomorrow!

State of the Race: 2 Days to Go

We have 20 new state polls today. And with two days to go, it looks like John McCain is finally closing. But not enough. Here are the battleground state numbers:

North Carolina (15)--Obama +0.9
Missouri (11)--McCain +1.0
Indiana (11)--McCain +1.4
North Dakota (3)--McCain +1.9
Florida (27)--Obama +2.4
Georgia (15)--McCain +3.9
Ohio (20)--Obama +4.1
Montana (3)--McCain +4.4
Arizona (10)--McCain +4.9
Nevada (5)--Obama +5.1
Virginia (13)--Obama +5.1
Colorado (9)--Obama +5.6
Pennsylvania (21)--Obama +7.4
New Mexico (5)--Obama +7.8
West Virginia (5)--McCain +8.9
South Dakota--McCain +9.4
New Hampshire (4)--Obama +10.2
Wisconsin (10)--Obama +10.4
Minnesota (10)--Obama +11.4
Iowa (7)--Obama +12.9

TODAY'S ELECTORAL VOTE PROJECTION:
Obama: 353
McCain: 185

The national polls stayed relatively still today, and Obama still has about a 5 or 6-point lead nationally.

McCain ticked up about a point in North Carolina, Ohio, Virginia, Colorado, and Pennsylvania since yesterday's update. And it's a good thing too, because those are all states that are critical to a McCain's best case electoral scenario.

McCain's increases in these five states are due to the flurry of Mason-Dixon battleground state polls that were released today. They give McCain a 3-point lead in NC and a 2-point lead in OH. They also gave Obama a 5-point lead in CO, a 4-point lead in PA and a 3-point lead in VA.

Some other polls they released today were in Florida (O+2), Missouri (M+1), and Nevada (O+4).

Now, Mason-Dixon's polls have leaned 2-3 points more toward McCain than the average of other polls taken in those states at the same time. This doesn't mean that they are biased or partisan. They are non-partisan, but they just have a different way of sampling the electorate than other pollsters, and they may turn out to be the most accurate on election day.

McCain also gets some more good numbers in Pennsylvania today. His deficit in the Morning Call tracker in down to 7 points, SurveyUSA has him down by 7 as well, and Rasmussen has him down by only 6. I'll keep an eye on the numbers coming out of this state tomorrow and Tuesday, but I still don't think that he will win the state. It very well could be close--even within 2 or 3 points--but I think he'll come short on election day.

The only state that Obama improved in was Iowa, where a Des Moines Register poll has him up by 17 points. And Ann Selzer, the pollster that conducted the poll, is usually pretty accurate when it comes to Iowa elections. But nonetheless, the McCain campaign thinks they have a shot there. McCain's campaign manager, Steve Schmidt, says that they're down by only a few points there based on internal polling. Somebody's gotta be wrong.

Expect a ton of polls to come out tomorrow, as is customary with the Mondays before election day. I will have a detailed analysis of those numbers as well as predictions for the 20 battleground states listed above on the morrow.

State of the Race: 3 Days to Go

It was a slow polling day, with only 15 new state polls. Here's today's battleground state averages with three days to go until election day:

Missouri (11)--McCain +0.7
Indiana (11)--McCain +1.3
North Dakota (3)--McCain +1.6
North Carolina (15)--Obama +1.9
Florida (27)--Obama +2.7
Montana (3)--McCain +4.1
Georgia (15)--McCain +4.2
Arizona (10)--McCain +4.9
Ohio (20)--Obama +5.0
Nevada (5)--Obama +5.7
Virginia (13)--Obama +6.3
Colorado (9)--Obama +6.3
Pennsylvania (21)--Obama +8.2
West Virginia (5)--McCain +8.8
New Mexico (5)--Obama +9.1
South Dakota--McCain +9.1
New Hampshire (4)--Obama +10.7
Wisconsin (10)--Obama +11.1
Iowa (7)--Obama +11.6
Minnesota (10)--Obama +12.3

TODAY'S ELECTORAL VOTE PROJECTION:
Obama: 353
McCain: 185

The national polls stayed still today, and Obama still has about a 6-point lead.

I know you'll all help me in welcoming South Dakota to our very exclusive battleground list! No applause needed. Especially if your first name is John and your last name is McCain. A new Rasmussen poll puts McCain up by only 9 points in the state. I don't think that Barack Obama will win here unless it is a nationwide landslide, but still, my model shows that South Dakota is a closer race that New Hampshire, Wisconsin, Iowa, and Minnesota, so I felt obliged to put it on there.

McCain gained about a point in Missouri since yesterday's update, but that was just a retrospective reaction from the favorable numbers he got yesterday in the state.

The real story today is Pennsylvania. Three polls came out and confirmed that McCain is indeed closing in this state. The Morning Call tracking poll gives Obama an 8-point lead, ARG gives Obama a 6-point lead, and Rasmussen gives Obama only a 4-point lead--but the latter's methodology and internals were fishy (as I wrote about earlier).

McCain jumped up about a point and a half since yesterday in the Keystone State. And it's a good thing because he now absolutely needs it to become president. He is going to lose Colorado since more than half of the state has voted already and the number of Democrats has dwarfed the number of Republicans who have already voted.

So even if McCain wins Ohio, Florida, North Carolina, Missouri, Nevada, Indiana, Georgia, and Virginia, it won't be enough for him to reach 270 electoral votes. He still needs Pennsylvania. But that is still no easy feat--he is still down by about 8 points, but I would expect that to close up a bit more in the next few days to around 6 or 7.

Since there has been a lot of talk about McCain "closing" nationally and in a bunch of swing states. So I looked into how much he had actually gained ground in the 18 battleground states (sorry Arizona and South Dakota) in the past week:

McCain gained 4 points in Indiana, 2.6 points in Pennsylvania, 2.1 points in Missouri, 1.6 points in Montana, and 1.4 points in West Virginia.

Obama gained 3.7 points in New Hampshire, 2.7 points in Nevada, 1.5 points in Minnesota, and 1.3 points in North Dakota.

The rest of the states did not change by more than one point in the past week in either direction. McCain has gained one point nationally in the last week.

Let's take a look at where each candidate has gained ground in the last month:

McCain has gained ground in only 1 of those 18 states in the last month: West Virginia. And that was only by one point.

Obama has gained significant ground in many of the other states such as North Dakota (+9.4), Georgia (+4.5), Nevada (+3.8), Wisconsin (+3.7), New Hampshire (+3.4), Minnesota (+3.2), Ohio (+3.0), Virginia (+2.9), Montana (+2.8), Colorado (+2.5), North Carolina (+1.5), and Missouri (+1.1) in the last month.

The rest of the states did not change by more than one point in the past month in either direction. Obama has gained 2.4 points nationally in the last month.

So in the past week, McCain has made some good gains in states like Indiana, Pennsylvania and Missouri. But over the past month, he has not really closed well in any state.

He still has some major ground to make up--not just in Pennsylvania, but in his other must-win states: Ohio, Florida, North Carolina, Nevada, and Virginia. And he's just about out of time.

State of the Race: 4 Days to Go

Many members of the media were talking today about how John McCain is "closing." Really? Because today's polls don't reflect that at all. In fact, Barack Obama increased his lead in the national tracking polls as well as in many state polls today. I guess the major networks want to say the race is getting closer so more people will watch.

We have 31 new state polls today. Here's the battleground state averages with four days to go before election day:

Missouri (11)--Obama +0.2
Indiana (11)--McCain +1.4
North Dakota (3)--McCain +1.4
North Carolina (15)--Obama +1.9
Florida (27)--Obama +2.9
Georgia (15)--McCain +3.8
Montana (3)--McCain +4.0
Ohio (20)--Obama +5.1
Arizona (10)--McCain +5.2
Nevada (5)--Obama +5.8
Colorado (9)--Obama +6.6
Virginia (13)--Obama +6.6
West Virginia (5)--McCain +8.5
New Mexico (5)--Obama +8.9
Pennsylvania (21)--Obama +9.6
New Hampshire (4)--Obama +11.0
Wisconsin (10)--Obama +11.3
Iowa (7)--Obama +11.7
Minnesota (10)--Obama +12.4

TODAY'S ELECTORAL VOTE PROJECTION:
Obama: 364
McCain: 174

John McCain really can't afford to have a day where he does not make up any ground in the battleground states, let alone lose ground in them.

Since yesterday's update, McCain has gone down by a half of a point in New Mexico, largely due to the latest PPP poll that has him down by 17 there. Now, PPP is a left-leaning pollster, so I would translate that margin into something more like 13 or 14, which is still very strong. McCain has gone down almost two points in North Dakota as a result of a Research 2000 poll that puts him up by only one point in the state. Obama has started airing advertisements there again.

McCain continues to lose ground in Arizona, and now states like Colorado, Virginia and Nevada are more competitive than his home state. The Obama campaign has started advertising in Arizona yesterday as a result of these hopeful new numbers. But I must say, that is a bit obnoxious. I mean, there's no way that Arizona is going to decide the election--they just want to add insult to injury. But, I guess they have more money than they know what to do with.

We had six polls from New Hampshire out today, where Obama is leading from anywhere between 7-15 points. I think this slew of evidence shows that he is right on track to win there.

On top of that, the majority of Colorado and New Mexico have already cast their ballots through early voting, and early totals show that far more Democrats have showed up than Republicans so far. That does not bode well for McCain.

The key states of Missouri, North Carolina, Florida, Ohio, Nevada, Colorado, and Virginia remain unchanged since yesterday. McCain needs to be closing in these states, but instead Obama still has small or even some large leads in some of these states.

The only states that are moving in McCain's direction are Indiana, Montana and Pennsylvania. Two recent polls from Montana show that McCain is gaining slightly there, and his lead is just outside the margin of error. The same goes for Indiana, which looks to be more and more promising for McCain.

The only evidence where I see McCain "closing" is in Pennsylvania. But his gains are nothing to write home about. The Morning Call tracking poll has him down by (only!) 10 points, down a point from yesterday, while a Strategic Vision poll has him down by 5 points. But keep in mind that Strategic Vision has had a Republican lean and some very erratic polling in Pennsylvania all year. This result is probably what his campaign's internal polls looked like when they decided to go all-in there last week.

So basically, Pennsylvania is McCain's last chance. Even if he does pull off a miracle and win the Keystone state, it does not automatically mean victory for him. Obama has something of a firewall in Colorado, Virginia, and Nevada--totaling 27 electoral votes to Pennsylvania's 21. Even if McCain wins Pennsylvania, Ohio, Florida, Missouri and North Carolina (all states he's currently behind in), all Obama needs is those three firewall states and he has 270 electoral votes.

I'm sure the electoral map and all of the different scenarios for an Obama victory is giving McCain campaign manager Steve Schmidt nightmares.

State of the Race: 5 Days to Go

We have 32 new state polls today. Here's the averages for the battleground states with five days to go before election day:

Missouri (11)--Obama +0.4
Indiana (11)--McCain +0.6
North Carolina (15)--Obama +1.8
Montana (3)--McCain +2.2
Florida (27)--Obama +2.7
North Dakota (3)--McCain +3.1
Georgia (15)--McCain +4.1
Ohio (20)--Obama +4.9
Nevada (5)--Obama +5.8
Arizona (10)--McCain +6.2
Colorado (9)--Obama +6.7
Virginia (13)--Obama +6.8
West Virginia (5)--McCain +8.0
New Mexico (5)--Obama +8.4
Pennsylvania (21)--Obama +10.1
Wisconsin (10)--Obama +10.4
New Hampshire (4)--Obama +11.1
Iowa (7)--Obama +11.2
Minnesota (10)--Obama +12.4

TODAY'S ELECTORAL VOTE PROJECTION:
Obama: 364
McCain: 174

Both candidates get some good news from today's state polls, but overall the status of the battleground states has not changed very much. The national polls (which mean close to nothing) show McCain down by about 6 points. He needs to close that lead by about one point per day to have a chance in many of these states--and that is no easy feat when you have inferior ground operations, an inferior advertising budget and no real central campaign theme.

Over the past few days, every battleground state (except for North Dakota) have been polled and many of the major battleground states (Colorado, Virginia, Ohio, Florida, Nevada, Pennsylvania, North Carolina etc.) have been polled extensively. So we have a pretty good idea of where the race stands.

The good news for the McCain campaign comes from Indiana, where a Reuters/Zogby poll puts McCain up by six points. Rasmussen has him up by 3. However, an Indy Star/Selzer poll puts Obama up by one point, but that poll has had a Democratic lean this cycle. Notice that Indiana was the first state in over a week to change hands in my model. McCain now leads by 0.4 points overall, and I still consider it to be a toss-up.

Good news for Obama comes out of the upper Midwest today. He improved his position in Minnesota by two points since yesterday, as a result of a new Minnesota Public Radio that has him up by 19 in the state. SurveyUSA puts Obama up by 15 points in Iowa and 16 points in Wisconsin. These three states look like they're all out of play for McCain.

Obama is maintaining his small but significant leads in North Carolina, Florida and Ohio. McCain is holding on for dear life in Georgia.

Even if McCain somehow pulls off an upset in Pennsylvania, Obama may still counteract that with wins in Colorado, Virginia and Nevada, which would give him 270 electoral votes and thus the presidency. Obama has leads of 6 points or more in those three states right now and they may be just out of reach for McCain.

There's also some embarrassing news for the McCain campaign: he's running robocalls in his home state of Arizona. The calls mean Republicans are sinking resources into a state that obviously should have been a complete lock for McCain, and are not spending those resources in states like Indiana and Missouri, which are dead heats.

State of the Race: 6 Days to Go

There has been a ton of polling so far this week, so lets get to it. Here's today's battleground state averages:

Missouri (11)--Obama +0.2
Indiana (11)--Obama +0.7
North Carolina (15)--Obama +1.3
Montana (3)--McCain +2.5
North Dakota (3)--McCain +2.6
Florida (27)--Obama +3.0
Georgia (15)--McCain +4.1
Ohio (20)--Obama +5.4
Nevada (5)--Obama +5.7
Arizona (10)--McCain +6.0
Colorado (9)--Obama +6.8
Virginia (13)--Obama +7.0
West Virginia (5)--McCain +8.1
New Mexico (5)--Obama +8.3
Pennsylvania (21)--Obama +10.3
Minnesota (10)--Obama +10.4
New Hampshire (4)--Obama +10.5
Wisconsin (10)--Obama +10.7
Iowa (7)--Obama +11.4


TODAY'S ELECTORAL VOTE PROJECTION:
Obama: 375
McCain: 163

From my last update on Saturday, there have been 82 state polls. Most of them have been great news for Barack Obama and terrible news for John McCain. The battleground states should be tightening up at this point in the race, but it appears that Obama is expanding his lead, or at least maintaining it, in most of these states.

Since Saturday's update, Obama is up four points in New Hampshire, three points in Nevada, and one point in Colorado and Florida. New Hampshire is essentially a safe state for him now and Pennsylvania looks pretty out of reach--and those are the only two states that McCain has a chance to flip. Obama has double digit leads in both states. Sorry, John. So much for the Hail Mary pass.

I think something that truly signifies McCain's decline in the polls on a national scale is the most recent numbers from Arizona, his home state. The last three polls from Arizona have McCain up by 5, 2, and 8 points respectively. My average shows him up by about six points there. How embarrassing would it be if he lost his home state?

McCain has only made some minor gains in a few states since Saturday. He's up about two points in Missouri and about one point in Indiana, and West Virginia since my last update. He's pulled about even in Missouri, which is a relatively big step in the right direction in a state that he must win.

West Virginia looks like it's leaning more and more towards McCain again, but Obama has won a victory there in a sense in that he got the RNC to spend advertising money there. The RNC also dished out advertising cash in Montana this past week. Montana. Bush won by 21 points there, so you know the Republicans are in trouble. As Rachel Maddow said last night, that's comparable to the Democrats defending Massachusetts.

McCain better pray that something drastic happens in the next six days, like when Osama bin Laden came out with that video a few days before the 2004 election. That scared a lot of undecided voters into supporting Bush in the last few days, and helped tip the election in his favor. But Al Qaeda already endorsed McCain, so I guess that's out.

State of the Race: 10 Days to Go

It was a slow polling day, with only a few new polls coming out today. Here are the numbers, and as always, the states are listed from most to least competitive.

North Carolina (15)--Obama +1.1
Missouri (11)--Obama +2.0
Florida (27)--Obama +2.0
Montana (3)--McCain +2.4
Indiana (11)--Obama +2.7
Nevada (5)--Obama +2.7
North Dakota (3)--McCain +2.7
Georgia (15)--McCain +4.0
Ohio (20)--Obama +5.3
Colorado (9)--Obama +5.8
New Hampshire (4)--Obama +6.3
Virginia (13)--Obama +6.8
West Virginia (5)--McCain +6.9
New Mexico (5)--Obama +8.3
Pennsylvania (21)--Obama +10.5
Minnesota (10)--Obama +11.1
Wisconsin (10)--Obama +11.2
Iowa (7)--Obama +11.3

TODAY'S ELECTORAL VOTE PROJECTION:
Obama: 375
McCain: 163

One poll that came out after yesterday's update was the Rasmussen poll in New Hampshire, and boy was it good news for John McCain. The poll showed him down by only four points, cutting the margin down considerably from the last batch of polls from the state. New Hampshire still remains McCain's best opportunity to pick off a Kerry state.

Another Rasmussen poll that came out after yesterday's update out of Iowa shows that the state is not totally out of play. According to that poll, McCain is only down by eight points, which is not terrible news for McCain. It shows that Obama has not yet sealed the deal, but it will still be very hard for McCain to win there. McCain is spending most of the weekend in Iowa, in search of some much-needed electoral votes, but his chances look grim.

The McCain campaign's decision to go all-out for Pennsylvania has not really moved the polls at all. Obama continues to hold a double-digit advantage over McCain according to the Morning Call Pennsylvania tracking poll.

Some more bad news for the McCain camp is the results from today's Rocky Mountain News poll, which has Obama up by 12 there. If McCain doesn't win Pennsylvania (and it looks like he's not), Colorado is one of the states he must win, along with Nevada, Missouri, Indiana, Ohio, Virginia, North Carolina, Georgia, and Florida.

Also, the reliable Ohio Newspaper poll puts Obama up by three in the Buckeye state, which is a definite improvement for McCain over the double digit deficits he got in the last two polls. This poll seems more logical than the last two--I do not for a second believe that Obama has a double-digit lead over McCain in Ohio.

State of the Race: 11 Days to Go

I'm a bit pressed for time, so I'd like to give you just the numbers and a brief analysis of them. Here are my averages for each of the 18 battleground states (I've removed Michigan from the list, Obama leads by over 15 points there) with 11 days to go before election day. The states are listed from most to least competitive.

North Carolina (15)--Obama +1.6
Missouri (11)--Obama +2.1
North Dakota (3)--McCain +2.1
Montana (3)--McCain +2.2
Florida (27)--Obama +2.3
Indiana (3)--Obama +2.7
Nevada (5)--Obama +2.8
Georgia (15)--McCain +5.1
Ohio (20)--Obama +5.4
Colorado (9)--Obama +5.6
Virginia (13)--Obama +6.9
West Virginia (5)--McCain +7.0
New Hampshire (4)--Obama +7.9
New Mexico (5)--Obama +8.4
Pennsylvania (21)--Obama +10.9
Wisconsin (10)--Obama +11.4
Minnesota (10)--Obama +11.6
Iowa (7)--Obama +13.1

TODAY'S ELECTORAL VOTE PROJECTION:
Obama: 375
McCain: 163

A batch of Big 10 Battleground polls from the University of Wisconsin that came out yesterday shows Obama up by double digits in Ohio, Pennsylvania, Michigan, Illinois, Minnesota, Wisconsin, Iowa, and even Indiana. Quinnipiac has Obama ahead by 14 points in Ohio, 13 points in Pennsylvania, and 5 points in Florida.

Some are saying that yesterday was McCain's worst polling day of the year. However, the national tracking polls did not change drastically--all of the action was at the state level. Polls showing him down double digits in Pennsylvania and Ohio--both of which have become must-win states for him--as well as in Indiana is really bad news for the McCain campaign.

Even more bad news comes from reliably red Montana, where a new poll from MSU-Billings shows Obama up by four points there. Also of note is the fact that Ron Paul is on the ballot in that state and he drew 4 percent of the vote in the same poll--the exact difference between Obama and McCain.

Also, a new Insider Advantage poll shows Obama with a lead (albeit an insignificant one) in Georgia. If McCain is having trouble defending deep red states such as this at this point in the campaign, it bodes ill for him on election night.

McCain does get some good news out of a Strategic Vision poll in Florida--where he leads by two points--and Ohio--where he leads by three. But take into account that Strategic Vision is a notoriously right-leaning pollster. McCain also gets some good news out of a Rasmussen poll in North Carolina, where he also leads Obama by two points. But my model still shows Obama with leads in all three of these states.

State of the Race: 12 Days to Go

So here's a quick look at where the 19 battleground states currently stand, in order from most to least competitive based on recent polling. I have averaged the totals of three poll averaging websites--RealClearPolitics.com, Electoral-Vote.com and FiveThirtyEight.com--for each of these states. Let's take a look.

Florida (27 EV's)--Obama +1.5
I thought that this classic swing state would have trended to John McCain at this point in the race, but Barack Obama has gotten some good numbers here in the most recent polls. He is also heavily outspending and out-advertising McCain in the state. But this is a must-win for McCain.

North Carolina (15 EV's)--Obama +1.8
Who would have thought that at this point in the race, a state that George Bush won by 12 and 13 points in 2000 and 2004, respectively, would still be in play? Obama is making a hard push to flip North Carolina's fifteen electoral votes that have not gone for a Democrat since Jimmy Carter in 1976. This state will be interesting to watch on election night, because not only is this state a tossup in the presidential race, but there are extremely close senatorial and gubernatorial races happening in this state. This is also a must-win state for McCain.

Missouri (11 EV's)--Obama +1.9
This state is typically a bellwether for the rest of the country, as it has voted for the winning candidate in the presidential election in the last 12 elections. This is another state McCain must carry if he wants any shot at reaching 270 electoral votes.

Indiana (11 EV's)--McCain +2.1
The Hoosier State is usually a reliable red state, but Obama has made a huge push for the state. This state's polls close at 6:00 P.M. on election day and the first results from the state will be an early indicator of just how bad things are going to be for McCain for the rest of the night.

Nevada (5 EV's)--Obama +2.7
Even though Nevada only has five electoral votes, victory in the state has become crucial in the McCain campaign's electoral math. The Hispanics vote will play a huge role in the state's final results, and right now they seem to be trending heavily towards Obama.

North Dakota (3 EV's)--McCain +3.0
Yeah, I'm surprised that this state is so high up on this list as well (or even the fact that's it's on this list at all). This is a state that Bush won by 27 and 28 points in the last two elections. Obama removed most of his resources and staff from the state earlier in the Fall, but now they're considering moving them back as a result of their surprisingly strong recent poll numbers.

Ohio (20 EV's)--Obama +3.4
Ah yes, the classic battleground and bellwether state, home of Joe the Plumber and a long history of indecisiveness. Obama's ground and turnout operation here are said to be massive and unprecedented. McCain absolutely needs this state to reach 270.

Montana (3 EV's)--McCain +4.6
Like North Dakota, this should be a state that McCain should win easily. But the most recent polls show the race nearly dead even there. This is a state with a high number of libertarians and traditional conservatives, yet it does have a Democratic governor and one Democratic senator.

Colorado (9 EV's)--Obama +5.2
Obama's lead has remained pretty steady here in the last month, and many think Obama has built a formidable firewall here. McCain recently stopped his advertising here, showing that he thinks the state is slipping too far away. I will be watching this state very closely on election night, because it may very well put Obama over the top.

Georgia (15 EV's)--McCain +6.4
I'm really surprised that the race is this close here this late in the game. The Obama team has been encouraged by the most recent poll numbers here and is considering upping the effort and making a real push for it before election day.

Virginia (13 EV's)--Obama +6.7
I also thought that this state would be a lot closer this late this close to election day, but Obama holds a strong lead here and has built up something of a firewall. His surge and main area of support is in the Washington, D.C. suburbs in Northern Virginia. This is yet another must-win state for McCain.

West Virginia (5 EV's)--McCain +7.3
For a little while, it looked like Obama could pick off this overwhelmingly white state where he got about a quarter of the vote in the primaries. But more recent polls have him down by a larger margin, and this state is not likely to switch hands this year.

New Hampshire (4 EV's)--Obama +7.6
This is one of the few states that switched hands between 2000 and 2004, and has always been very competitive. This state revived McCain's primary campaigns in 2000 and 2004, and he is liked and respected up there. But their fear of four more years of Bush might trump their affection for McCain. This is probably the best shot McCain has of picking off a blue state, and right now it is the most competitive Kerry state.

New Mexico (5 EV's)--Obama +8.2
It has been pretty well-established that this state, along with Iowa, were the two Bush states that were definitely going to change hands this year. The McCain campaign has essentially abandoned the state and Obama should carry it by a significant margin on election night.

Minnesota (10 EV's)--Obama +10.4
McCain and the Republicans held their convention here in September, but it's looking like they are not going to flip the state this year. They have recently dialed down their advertising and organizational efforts here in a sign that this state is essentially out of reach.

Wisconsin (10 EV's)--Obama +10.6
This state is very similar demographically to Minnesota, except that it has a larger population of independents and has a much stronger anti-Bush feel to it. McCain has also stopped his advertising here in the past week. I expect Obama to carry this state easily on November 4.

Pennsylvania (21 EV's)--Obama +10.8
Take a minute and look how far down this state is on this list. Then look at the lead Obama has. This is the state that McCain is placing all of his hope in. Not Colorado, not Virginia, but Pennsylvania. The most recent polls show Obama up by double digits here, despite a vastly increased effort in the state by the McCain campaign. Good luck picking this one off, guys.

Iowa (7 EV's)--Obama +12.2
As soon as McCain said that he was against ethanol subsidies, he basically conceded this state. During the primaries, McCain basically ignored the state and Obama essentially lived in the state for about a year. The Iowan voters that gave the early advantage over Hillary Clinton in the primaries know him very well. It has been a foregone conclusion for a while that Obama would carry Iowa by a significant margin.

Michigan (17 EV's)--Obama +14.4
I don't even know why I'm still calling this a battleground state. Ever since McCain pulled out of this state last month, his poll numbers have taken a serious nose dive. He has almost zero chance of carrying the state now.