Super Tuesday Predictions

I know it's a lot, and it'll probably be very wrong, but here are my predictions for the 43 contests taking place tomorrow night.

Democrats: (2,075)
Alabama (60)--Obama
Alaska (18)--Obama
Arizona (67)--Obama
Arkansas (47)--Clinton
California (441)--Obama
Colorado (71)--Obama
Connecticut (60)--Obama
Delaware (23)--Clinton
Georgia (103)--Obama
Idaho (23)--Obama
Illinois (185)--Obama
Kansas (41)--Obama
Massachusetts (121)--Clinton
Minnesota (88)--Obama
Missouri (88)--Clinton
New Jersey (127)--Clinton
New Mexico (38)--Clinton
New York (281)--Clinton
North Dakota (21)--Clinton
Oklahoma (47)--Clinton
Tennessee (85)--Clinton
Utah (29)--Clinton

Republicans: (1,081)
Alabama (48)--McCain
Alaska (29)--McCain
Arizona (53)--McCain
Arkansas (34)--Huckabee
California (173)--McCain
Colorado (46)--Romney
Connecticut (30)--McCain
Delaware (18)--McCain
Georgia (72)--Huckabee
Illinois (70)--McCain
Massachusetts (43)--Romney
Minnesota (41)--McCain
Missouri (58)--McCain
Montana (25)--Romney
New Jersey (52)--McCain
New York (101)--McCain
North Dakota (26)--McCain
Oklahoma (41)--McCain
Tennessee (55)--McCain
Utah (36)--Romney
West Virginia (30)--McCain

So first, the more exciting race: the Democrats.

I think we'll see a pretty even delegate split after tomorrow, and the race will go on for a very long time.

Overall, I think Barack Obama will carry most of the red states such as Alabama, Colorado, Georgia, Alaska, and Kansas tomorrow night. He has a lot of crossover appeal, especially in those states.

Hillary Clinton should carry most of the blue states, and will compete in all the places that Obama wins, giving her plenty of delegates.

I think that the states that will have the most impact tomorrow are the ones with the most delegates. Duh. But each state is different within this category.

For instance, Illinois is an Obama stronghold and has lots of delegates. Obama needs to crush Hillary there and take a strong majority of those delegates.

The same goes in New York and New Jersey for Hillary. The bigger the margin of victory, the more delegates for her, and the less for Obama. Big wins in these states could give one candidate a clear advantage going into Wednesday.

But California is the big wild card. A few weeks ago, it was thought to be Hillary country, but new polls show that Obama has come close, tied, or passed Hillary in the biggest state to vote tomorrow.

I personally think that Obama will win there, and that his current momentum will be evident when the votes are tallied tomorrow. But I don't think he'll win by much, and the delegate total will be pretty much even. But if either candidate can pull off a big win there, then they will have a clear advantage going forward.

Remember to keep your eye on the delegate total tomorrow, not on the percentages or who wins what state. In the end, delegates alone are the key to the nomination.

Now, the Republicans. I think this is much more boring, because as soon as John McCain won Florida, he won the nomination.

I predict that he will win across the board, save a few states that demographically favor his rivals. Those states being Arkansas and Georgia for Mike Huckabee, and Massachusetts, Utah, Colorado, and Montana for Mitt Romney.

McCain should rack up plenty of delegates, leaving both Romney and Huckabee in the dust going into February 6th. After tomorrow, McCain will be the clear nominee for the Republican party.