NY: Gillibrand Raises $2.3 Million

In an email to her supporters, Sen. Kirsten Gillibrand (D-NY) announced that she has raised $2.3 million in the two months since she has been appointed.

Gillibrand is proving her mettle as a prodigious fundraiser with this impressive sum. And figures like these may prove to deter other Democrats, such as Reps. Carolyn McCarthy and Carolyn Maloney, from challenging Gillibrand in the primary--and it proves that taking her on won't be cheap.

But as of now, she is still not well-known in the state. According to a new Quinnipiac poll, nearly two-thirds of New Yorkers don't know enough about her to form an opinion of her. So she clearly has some work to do to pick up these lagging name recognition numbers.

The poll also found that Gillibrand narrowly trails McCarthy in a Democratic primary match-up, 33% to 29%, but--much like Gillibrand--68% don't know enough about McCarthy to form an opinion of her.

In a general election match-up, Gillibrand leads Rep. Peter King (R-NY) 40% to 28%.

Thursday Afternoon Tidbits

Florida: Former Florida House Speaker Marco Rubio (R) "has formed an exploratory committee to prepare running for the Senate, becoming the first credible Republican candidate to formally prepare for a campaign to succeed retiring Sen. Mel Martinez," the Scorecard reports. Of course, Rubio and other top Republicans considering running for the open seat--such as Reps. Connie Mack and Vern Buchanan--will wait until popular Gov. Charlie Crist (R) announces if he is running for the seat before making an official move of their own. Crist has said that he will not make his decision until May, but if he does jump into the Senate race, expect the primary field to clear for him--and expect Rubio, along with other top Florida Republicans, to run for governor.

Illinois: The Hill reports that former Commerce Secretary William Daley (D) is strongly leaning towards running for Sen. Roland Burris' (D) seat in 2010. Daley's brother is the mayor of Chicago, so he would instantly have establishment support--but he would also bear the burden of the Chicago machine. If he enters the race, he will face off against state Treasurer Alexi Giannoulias (D) and possibly Burris himself in the Democratic primary, so while he would start off as a front-runner, he would by no means be shoo-in to win the nomination. Rep. Jan Schakowsky (D) has also not yet ruled out a run, but she was more keen on the idea of running in a special election, which is looking less and less likely.

New York-B: Rep. Steve Israel is yet another downstate Democrat that is considering challenging Sen. Kirsten Gillibrand in a Democratic primary, according to the New York Times. Israel joins Rep. Carolyn Maloney, Rep. Carolyn McCarthy and Manhattan Borough President Scott Stringer, who are all openly considering bids for 2010.

Poll Watch: Pennsylvania and New York

In Pennsylvania, a new Susquehanna poll shows that Sen. Arlen Specter (R-PA) could be in some serious trouble in his 2010 reelection bid--particularly in the Republican primary.

Specter is widely viewed as a moderate Republican, which would seem to fit the bill of Pennsylvania well. But many of the moderate Republican voters that have supported him in previous bids have either moved out of the state or have switched registration to the Democratic Party.

And that's significant because in Pennsylvania the primaries are closed (meaning that only registered members of the party can vote in their own primary) so Democrats and Independents can't vote in the Republican primary.

This poll shows that 53% of all Pennsylvanians--and 66% of Republicans--want someone to replace Specter after 2010, spelling trouble for him in the primary against a (much) more conservative candidate like former Rep. Pat Toomey--who almost defeated Specter in the 2004 Republican primary and just re-declared his interest in next year's race.

If Specter survives the primary, he is in good position to win in the general election, as 49% of Democrats said that they would back Specter. However, if a conservative like Toomey wins the GOP nomination, the Democratic nominee would have a much better shot of consolidating the Democratic race and taking the seat.

So in short, liberal Democrats should be cheering at the prospect of a Toomey candidacy, as long as they get a top-tier candidate of their own.

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In New York, a new Marist poll shows a statistical dead heat between incumbent Sen. Kirsten Gillibrand (D-NY) and Rep. Carolyn McCarthy, who has said that she would challenge Gillibrand in the 2010 primary over the issue of gun control.

The poll shows Gillibrand leading McCarthy 36% to 33%, which is in the margin of error. 50% of New Yorkers have no opinion either way of Gillibrand, while 18% say she is doing an excellent/good job and 32% say she is doing a fair/poor job.

Gillibrand has been positioning herself farther to the left on issues like gun control since she joined the Senate, in part to avoid a primary battle with someone like McCarthy.

In a general election match-up, Gillibrand trounces Rep. Peter King (R) by a margin of 49-28--as she has done in three previous polls against him. King would clearly be a weak general election candidate, even against someone as unknown/unpopular as Gillibrand.

It looks like the NRSC's only hope of picking up the seat in the 2010 special election lies with former Gov. George Pataki (R), although his entry in the race is seen as unlikely. In the poll, Gillibrand leads Pataki 45% to 41%.

NY-B: Pataki For Senate?

The Associated Press reports that Sen. John Cornyn, the chair of the National Republican Senatorial Committee, approached former New York Gov. George Pataki (R) this Tuesday about running for the Senate in 2010.

If he were to enter the race, Pataki would be challenging Democrat Kirsten Gillibrand, who was recently appointed to succeed Hillary Clinton in the Senate.

It is clear that Cornyn prefers the possibility of a Pataki candidacy over the candidacy of Rep. Peter King (R-NY), who has been trailing Gillibrand by double-digits in recent polling.

A Marist poll released that month found Gillibrand and Pataki in a statistical dead heat, with Gillibrand leading Pataki 44-42.

However, a 2010 Senate bid is seen as unlikely according to officials close to Pataki:

Former Rep. Thomas Reynolds, a close Pataki friend, told Gannett News Service that he spoke to Pataki for about 20 minutes Wednesday and the topic never came up.

"George Pataki as a mayor, as an assemblyman, as a senator and as a three-term governor, should he ever choose to re-enter public life, that's the most formidable Republican candidate we would have in the state," Reynolds said.

But Reynolds said Pataki, 63, of Garrison is enjoying the private sector as an attorney and spending time with his family, and "I just don't know that George Pataki wants to pursue a senatorial race."

Even if Pataki does run, there is no need for Democrats to panic. He left office in 2006 with a mediocre-to-low favorability rating, and might not have enough pull in New York anymore to defeat Gillibrand next year, given how blue the state has become.

NY-A: Schumer Might Run Unopposed

It's been known for a while that Sen. Chuck Schumer (D-NY), the third highest-ranked Democrat in the Senate, would not face any real opposition for his seat in 2010.

But with the New York's already feeble Republican Party focused on challenging newly-appointed Sen. Kirsten Gillibrand in the 2010 special election, it's looking more and more likely that Schumer could run unopposed.

In 2004, when Schumer was last up for reelection, the GOP's sacrificial lamb lost to Schumer 71% to 24%--the widest margin of defeat in the Empire State's history. He also already has a $10 million campaign war chest ready to go just in case.

If you were a New York Republican with anything to lose, would you want to challenge Schumer? Yeah, I didn't think so.

NY-B: Gillibrand Chosen to Replace Clinton

As expected, Gov. David Paterson (D-NY) announced Rep. Kirsten Gillibrand (D-NY) as the new US Senator from New York in a press conference earlier this afternoon.

However, the most peculiar thing about the press conference was the presence of former Sen. Al D'Amato (R-NY) just to Gillibrand's right (see picture), who was defeated by Chuck Schumer in the 1998 senatorial race.

This presence shows both Gillibrand's potential crossover appeal, given her centrist-to-conservative views on many issues, but it also symbolizes that potential primary trouble she may face from the progressive wing of her own party in 2010.

As I noted yesterday, Rep. Carolyn McCarthy (D-NY) has already pledged that she would challenge Gillibrand herself if no one else does because of Gillibrand's position on gun control.

In Gillibrand's acceptance speech this afternoon, she seemed to notice that she would not have a honeymoon period and that she might be in danger in 2010 by explicitly noting that she looked forward to working together with McCarthy in her effort to implement stronger background check legislation in gun sales.

This was a quick turnaround for Gillibrand, who received a 100% rating from the NRA in her two years as a congresswoman. She also seemed to have a similar change in view on the issue of gay marriage, in which she "assured the state's leading gay rights group yesterday that she backs same-sex marriage, and shows no other conservative leanings," according to Ben Smith.

So we don't really know what Gillibrand's true views are, but it is becoming increasingly clear that she is adapting to a broader and more liberal constituency representing the entire state than when she was representing her conservative congressional district in upstate New York.

Gillibrand, who is 42, is young enough to hold the seat for a very long time (unless she is unseated). She is considered to be one of the more conservative Democrats in the House, and is a member of the Blue Dog caucus. Smith notes that, "She's voted to the right on issues like the bailout, the balanced budget amendment, lowering the gas tax, and supporting the war."

Politico's Josh Kraushaar has compiled a list of pros and cons of picking Gillibrand as she prepares for a competitive race in 2010, which will likely be against Rep. Peter King (R-NY). Here's the gist of it:

Pros
-She has proven crossover appeal, representing a conservative congressional district upstate
-She's a prolific fundraiser
-She fits the mold of all the characteristics that Paterson was looking for in the Senator: a woman, someone from upstate, and someone that would be well-received by both the Clinton and Schumer camps

Cons
-She has had a privileged background and thus might have a hard time appealing to working-class voters
-Because of her conservative track record, she will likely be challenged by someone from the progressive wing of her party, setting up a potentially damaging primary
-Democrats have a weak bench in her district and there's a very good possibility that they will lose the seat to the GOP, which has a stronger bench to choose from

In an unexpected move, King praised Gillibrand and announced that he would wait until the summer to decide whether he would run against her. President Obama joined King in praising Gillibrand, but no public reaction has come from McCarthy yet.

Gillibrand is expected to be sworn in to the Senate by Vice President Biden on Monday.

NY-B: Paterson Will Announce Pick Friday

Gov. David Paterson (D-NY) will announce his pick to replace Hillary Clinton--who has just been confirmed as Secretary of State--at noon tomorrow, according to CQ Politics.

At this point the two front-runners for the seat appear to be state Attorney General Andrew Cuomo and Rep. Kirsten Gillibrand, but more signs are pointing in the direction of Gillibrand as she now appears to be the favorite to take up Clinton's seat.

However, Rep. Carolyn McCarthy (D-NY) has already said that if Gillibrand is the appointee, she would run against her in the primaries for the 2010 special election, citing her support from the National Rifle Association and her unabashed support for gun owners' rights.

"To have a Senator representing the NRA from New York, that would be wrong," McCarthy told the New York Times. "If it comes down to that, I will primary in 2010." I don't think this threat will affect Paterson's decision, but I guess we'll just have to wait and see.

NY-B: Kennedy Withdraws Senate Bid

The New York Times is reporting the stunning development that Caroline Kennedy "has withdrawn [herself] from consideration for the vacant Senate seat in New York, according to a person told of her decision."

Kennedy was always thought to be Democratic Gov. David Paterson's top pick to replace Hillary Clinton in the Senate, who was confirmed today as Secretary of State. The New York Post even reported last week that she was going to be his pick.

Kennedy reportedly called Paterson late today to announce that she was withdrawing her name from consideration, citing her uncle Sen. Ted Kennedy's health problems. However, the Post is reporting that Paterson had already informed Kennedy that he would not pick her, and that her formal withdrawal was primarily just to save face.

Earlier polls show that New York voters prefer state Attorney General Andrew Cuomo to fill the position, but it is not known whether these polls have swayed Paterson's decision for the appointment. Paterson has also recently been talking up Rep. Kirsten Gillibrand.

Paterson is expected to announce his selection this Saturday. Stay tuned.

Trio of Senate Polls

A new Research 2000 poll shows incumbent Sen. Barbara Boxer (D-CA) leading outgoing Gov. Arnold Schwarzenegger (R) 49% to 40% in a hypothetical match-up. At this point, it seems as though Schwarzenegger could be the only Republican to unseat Boxer, whose approval-disapproval rating has dropped to 48-46.

But Schwarzenegger is already a very well-known and polarizing figure in California, and thus has little room to improve his numbers. His approval ratings are worse than Boxer's (42% approve and 51% disapprove). Also, his moderate nature would certainly draw a strong challenge from the right in the Republican primary.

Meanwhile, this is all just speculation at this point, as Schwarzenegger has not yet made his intentions clear about his candidacy. The only Republican to announce his candidacy is Assemblyman Chuck DeVore, who was not included in the poll. It is widely thought that he wouldn't stand much against Boxer in the general election.

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Meanwhile, a new ARG poll pitted incumbent Sen. Judd Gregg (R-NH) against New Hampshire's two Democratic representatives, Paul Hodes and Carol Shea-Porter. Gregg beats Hodes 47% to 40% but crushes Shea-Porter 54% to 35%.

Even though ARG has a spotty track record, the fact that Hodes does far better against Shea-Porter against Gregg and that Hodes keeps Gregg under 50% should be a clear sign to the DSCC that Hodes would be the stronger candidate. Among undeclared (independent) voters, Gregg only leads Hodes 46-42.

The poll also shows that Gregg draws the support of 22% of Democrats against Hodes, which shows room for improvement but also shows that Gregg has strong support among New Hampshire's moderate base.

It's a pity the poll didn't pit Gregg against Gov. John Lynch (D), the least likely to run but probably the strongest challenger if he does so.

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And finally, the results of a new Rasmussen poll completely contradict a PPP poll released last Wednesday of the New York Senate race that showed Caroline Kennedy (D) leading Rep. Peter King (R) by only 2%. The Rasmussen survey showed that Kennedy would hold a wide lead over King, by a margin of 51% to 33%.

This Rasmussen poll seems to make more sense than the PPP poll. Kennedy carries one of the most famous and recognizable last names in politics and should be a darling of the Democratic base, and King is a relatively unknown figure in the state in a party that is clearly the minority in the state. Based on those circumstances, the Rasmussen poll which shows Kennedy far ahead, seems to be more accurate. But with such a wide discrepancy it's still hard to tell.

Hillary Clinton's Senate confirmation hearing is set for Tuesday and she is expected to be confirmed easily, so Gov. David Paterson (D-NY) will have to make a decision too about who to appoint to the seat. The other major contender for the seat in state Attorney General Andrew Cuomo, but apparently Paterson is considering 10 to 15 candidates for the job.

NY-Sen: Caroline Kennedy Rapidly Losing Support

This time last week it seemed all but inevitable that Caroline Kennedy would be Gov. David Paterson's (D-NY) choice to fill Hillary Clinton's soon-to-be vacant Senate seat.

But now, as two different polls from Public Policy Polling have shown, Kennedy's support among New Yorkers for getting that position have tanked recently, to the benefit of state Attorney General Andrew Cuomo.

The first poll showed that Cuomo leads Kennedy 58% to 27% among New York voters as the one that they would most like to see Paterson appoint to the Senate. Cuomo led Kennedy 54-34 among Democrats alone, while she held a 44-23 lead in last month's poll in that category.

The second poll, which came out today, showed both Cuomo and Kennedy matched up against Rep. Peter King (R-NY) in a general election match-up for 2010.

Cuomo would trounce King 48% to 29%, while Kennedy's margin of victory was 46% to 44%--which is in the margin of error. Cuomo would clearly be the stronger general election candidate, according to these polls.

If Gov. Paterson is making his selection based just on the numbers, Andrew Cuomo is his man.

For the record, I've been making the case for Cuomo from the start. I think he's clearly the more qualified candidate, and he could easily raise a large campaign war chest for the 2010 election, whether he would face off against King or even Rudy Giuliani. And the above poll shows now that he is more electable than Kennedy. I implore David Paterson to see reason and see the light.

Caroline Kennedy Will Seek Clinton's Senate Seat

From the New York Times:

Caroline Kennedy, the daughter of an American political dynasty, has decided she will pursue the U.S. Senate seat being vacated by Senator Hillary Rodham Clinton, a person told of her decision said Monday.

The decision came after a series of deeply personal and political conversations, in which Ms. Kennedy, who friends describe as unflashy but determined, wrestled with whether to give up what has been a lifetime of avoiding the spotlight.

Ms. Kennedy will ask that Gov. David A. Paterson consider her for the appointment. The governor was traveling to Utica today could not immediately be reached for comment.

If appointed, Ms. Kennedy would fill the seat once held by her uncle, the late Robert F. Kennedy.

Ms. Kennedy has been making calls this morning to alert political figures to her interest.