Obama, Huckabee Win Big in Iowa

Well, just as I predicted (not intended with an arrogant tone), Barack Obama and Mike Huckabee won Iowa last night.

Not only did they win, but they won big last night in the long anticipated Iowa caucuses. Here are the official numbers.

Democrats:
Obama 38%
Edwards 30%
Clinton 29%
Richardson 2%
Biden 1%
Dodd 0%
Kucinich 0%
Gravel 0%

Republicans:
Huckabee 34%
Romney 25%
Thompson 13%
McCain 13%
Paul 10%
Giuliani 4%
Hunter 1%

There was record turnout on both sides with about 239,000 turning out on the Democratic side and about 120,000 on the Republican side.

This big showing greatly helped Obama win. Large numbers of independents and young voters--historically unreliable bases--came out in droves for Obama, propelling him to win by 8 percentage points.

Also, the second-choice supporters of Kucinich and Richardson may have helped him to a smaller degree.

Surprisingly, Obama defeated Clinton among women, which was thought to be her strong base. He also showed strong with first time caucus-goers and independents. They really took to his message of change and national unification that he made consistently in Iowa.

These results were also a major blow to John Edwards and Hillary Clinton.

Edwards poured almost all of his resources into Iowa, and did not really stop campaigning there after 2004. He proclaimed his second-place showing to be a victory, but it will really hurt him in the long-run. He will need a miracle to make a comeback in the states ahead.

Last night was especially disappointing to Clinton, who was told initially by some her advisers not to campaign in Iowa, and focus on a more national campaign.

Maybe she should have done just that. She spent a lot of her resources in this state where she knew she had high negative ratings.

Now she will campaign with Bill in New Hampshire, a state where independents make up 40% of the total New Hampshire electorate, who generally support Obama.

He will get a lot of momentum over the next five days, and it may well be enough to carry him to victory in New Hampshire.

In other news, Senators Chris Dodd and Joe Biden dropped out of the race after their poor showing in Iowa. They have yet to endorse any other candidates.

On the Republican side, Mike Huckabee beat out his main competitor, Mitt Romney, by 9 percentage points even though Romney outspent him by about 15 to 1 in Iowa.

Huckabee was largely helped by evangelical voters, who made up 60% of Iowa Republican voters. Now, they both turn to New Hampshire.

But this victory really makes the Republican race much more interesting. This loss will most likely hurt Mitt Romney in New Hampshire, as he will try to make a stand there.

These results greatly help John McCain, who was already on the rise in New Hampshire, even before yesterday. His major competitor in that state is the wounded Mitt Romney.

In Iowa, McCain tied Fred Thompson for third with 13% of the vote. Thompson confirmed that he would remain in the race. He is making his stand in South Carolina.

Meanwhile, Ron Paul finished with a strong 10%, finishing just behind McCain and Thompson. These results may help him secure a fourth or even third place finish in New Hampshire.

Giuliani finished with a resounding 4%, which is not really all that surprising considering he did not spend all that much time and money in the state. He is hoping that the field is still unsettled come Super Tuesday and he can emerge in the confusion.

We'll see how these results--and the spin--affect the New Hampshire results on both sides.