Iowa Predictions

My guess is really as good as anyone's as to who wins in Iowa. And it is very likely that I will be horribly wrong, but following this race very closely, here are my predictions for the January 3rd Iowa Caucuses.

Democrats
1.) Obama 31%
2.) Edwards 29%
3.) Clinton 28%
4.) Richardson 6%
5.) Biden 5%
6.) Dodd 1%
7.) Kucinich 0%
8.) Gravel 0%

Republicans
1.) Huckabee 31%
2.) Romney 29%
3.) McCain 13%
4.) Thompson 12%
5.) Paul 9%
6.) Giuliani 6%
7.) Hunter 0%

Both races will be extremely close, and the results will be a matter of turnout. I think that turnout will be larger than expected in Iowa--over 150,000 the Democratic side and about 100,000 on the Republican side.

I predict that Barack Obama will win Iowa by a very small margin over John Edwards and Hillary Clinton.

Independents and first-time caucus goers will show up in droves for Obama, catapulting him to first place. Edwards will finish a close second second because of the wide support he will receive as the second choice of also-ran candidates like Bill Richardson, Joe Biden, and Chris Dodd.

Kucinich supporters will caucus for Obama and he'll still do very will as a second choice candidate.

Both Obama and Edwards have gained momentum recently in Iowa, which definitely counts in Iowa--demonstrated by Kerry's come-from-behind win in 2004.

Clinton will do well after the first round of voting, but will fall into third place after the second choices of also-rans are counted. The high turnout of independents and young voters will hurt her and help the other two.

Richardson will come in a very distant fourth, followed closely by Biden, then Dodd. They will drop out after New Hampshire.

On the Republican side, I predict that the high turnout will favor Mike Huckabee and he will win in Iowa. First-time caucus goers will support him in great numbers and he will edge out Mitt Romney in Iowa.

Iowa Republicans are very concerned about character and social issues. They like Huckabee more in both of those categories and will give him enough votes to win. In the past, social issues candidates have fared well here.

He is also more likable than Romney and is more similar to most Iowans.

Mitt Romney, despite vastly outspending Huckabee, will finish in a close second here. The high turnout will hurt him badly here.

John McCain will edge out Fred Thompson for third because of his strong patriotism and consistency with the surge in Iraq and other major issues.

Ron Paul will get an surprising 9% in Iowa putting him just behind McCain and Thompson.

Like I said, these predictions are just about as good as anyone's, because both of these races are so close. We'll see how close I come to being right.