Tuesday Rundown

Connecticut: A new Quinnipiac poll shows Sen. Chris Dodd (D) in some serious trouble in his 2010 bid for re-election. Dodd trails former Rep. Rob Simmons (R) 43% to 42% in a hypothetical match-up, while he fares better against other Republicans such as CNBC host Larry Kudlow and state Sen. Sam Caligiuri. Simmons appears to be leaning towards running against Dodd next year, spelling out trouble for the Senator. The only good news for Dodd in this poll is that his approval-disapproval rating jumped to 49-40 from a 41-48 rating in February.

Delaware: A new PPP poll has more bad news for Democrats as it shows that statewide Rep. Mike Castle (R) would lead state Attorney General Beau Biden (D) 44% to 36% in a hypothetical match-up for the open Senate seat once held by Beau's father, Joe. Neither candidate has announced their plans for 2010. So if Castle (who is moderate) ran, he could have a real shot of flipping the seat, but he is 71 years old and we have not yet heard whether or not he is seriously mulling a run, despite pleas from John Cornyn. If Castle passes on the race, we can be sure that the Democrats will hold on to this seat--as the GOP has a weak bench in Delaware outside of Castle.

Pennsylvania: Sen. Arlen Specter (R) caught a big break today when conservative activist Peg Luksik (R) told the Johnstown Tribune-Democrat that she is planning on running against him in 2010. Now, this may seem like bad news for Specter on the surface as Luksik has had varying amounts of success in previous runs for statewide office. But given the fact that former Rep. Pat Toomey (R)--a fellow conservative--has all but declared his candidacy, Specter has a better chance of sneaking through the Republican primary with a plurality of moderate Republicans while Toomey and Luksik split the conservative vote. In Specter's mind, the more votes Luksik draws away from Toomey, the better.

DE: O'Donnell Will Run

Christine O'Donnell, the 2008 Republican nominee for Senate who lost to then-Sen. Joe Biden (as he concurrently ran for re-election to the Senate while he was on the Presidential ticket) by a margin of 65-35, has announced that she will run for the Senate again in 2010.

She will be running in the special election for Joe Biden's Senate seat, which is currently held by placeholder Ted Kaufman. State Attorney General Beau Biden--the Vice President's son--is expected to run on the Democratic side, and will face little to no opposition in the primary.

O'Donnell's entrance in the race decreases the likelihood that Rep. Mike Castle (R-DE)--the NRSC's top recruit to run for the seat--will jump in the race, as he will not likely want to tussle with someone like O'Donnell in the GOP primary.

O'Donnell is seen as a much weaker candidate than Castle, and if she is the Republican nominee facing off against Beau Biden, the Democrats should hold the seat with ease.