Check out my rundown of the 2010 Senate races here

Monday, January 28, 2008

Florida Prediction (GOP)

Republicans:
1.) Romney 33%

2.) McCain 31%
3.) Giuliani 18%
4.) Huckabee 14%
5.) Paul 4%
6.) Hunter 0%

I have a feeling that this will be a very close race, but I think that Mitt Romney will win in Florida tomorrow night for these reasons:

1.) The economy is in shambles right now. There is massive panic about the stock market, the mortgage crisis, and growing fear of a recession.

This just happens to be Mitt Romney's favorite issue. As a business executive, and as the man responsible for turning around the financially doomed 2002 Winter Olympics, Floridians will see him as the best candidate to fix the economy.

John McCain knows this, so recently he's tried to take Florida's attention off of the economy, and onto Iraq, his strong suit. In the end, I think the voters will go with the economy, and thus, Romney.

2.) Florida is having a closed primary, meaning that independents won't be allowed to vote, which will hurt McCain.

3.) Money. Romney has outspent McCain by a ton in Florida, which means more air time, which means a more direct appeal to more voters in this very large state.

4.) Giuliani. He and McCain are battling over largely the same voting block: moderates and foreign policy conservative. I think that Giuliani will siphon off enough of those supporters and will cost McCain the victory.

Things to watch for:
-Exit polling on what is the most important issue to voters
-The Giuliani factor
-Results from absentee ballots (should benefit Romney and Giuliani)

No comments: