Check out my rundown of the 2010 Senate races here

Wednesday, January 30, 2008

Edwards Finally Drops Out

John Edwards, after four disappointing losses thus far, has finally decided to end his bid for the Democratic nomination and the presidency.

I was not surprised by this news--I have been expecting it since South Carolina. But he did it today, after the meaningless Florida results came in. I'm baffled by his timing.

Edwards' strategy from the start was to win in the early states using his message of "change" and helping the middle class. In short, he wanted to be the anti-Hillary candidate.

But Barack Obama took that away from him and Edwards quickly turned into an also-ran candidate. After the Iowa results came in, I knew he was a goner.

Now the big question is, who will this help? His supporters, unlike Richardson, Biden, Dodd, and Kucinich's, make up a large bloc of the party--about 13% according to Realclearpolitics.com.

I really have no idea who this will help. On one hand, Edwards' constituency is mostly composed of white lower middle class, blue collar, and rural Democrats--who generally favor Hillary.

On the other hand, a lot of Edwards supporters dislike Hillary, and might flock to Obama as their last chance of having a non-Hillary nominee.

If I had to put money on it, I'd say it might help Obama a little bit more because he and Obama's messages have more in common than he and Hillary's. But I'm just going with my gut here.

Edwards has yet to endorse anyone (and I don't think he will), but just the mere incentive of an endorsement already has Hillary and Obama talking about poverty and battling big corporations, which is exactly what Edwards wants.

Keep an eye on the polls and see who his supporters are backing. It might make or break either Hillary or Obama on Super Tuesday.

Tuesday, January 29, 2008

McCain Wins FL; Clinches Nomination

John McCain won the close contest in Florida tonight, and has effectively clinched the nomination. Here are the results.

Republicans:
1.) McCain 36%
2.) Romney 31%
3.) Giuliani 15%
4.) Huckabee 14%
5.) Paul 3%

I thought that Mitt Romney would have the edge with the emphasis on the economy, but it turned out that he and McCain were dead even on the issue according to Florida voters. His credentials on foreign policy put him over the top and gave him a comfortable victory tonight.

He won basically everywhere, and now, unofficially, has won the nomination. I think that he will sweep on Super Tuesday with Huckabee's support--who is looking just ripe for McCain's running-mate.

In addition, Rudy Giuliani, after a disappointing performance tonight, is endorsing McCain tomorrow at the Reagan library in California, right before the CNN debate in Los Angeles.

With no opposition from Giuliani, McCain should win the northeast and California pretty handily, and should get help from Huckabee in the south.

Look for Hillary Clinton and Barack Obama to be focusing on electability before Super Tuesday, and who can beat McCain in November.

Oh, and for those of you who are keeping track at home, I'm 7 for 11 with my predictions so far.

Monday, January 28, 2008

More Endorsements

Right before the primaries go national, both Hillary Clinton and Barack Obama have received big endorsements that should help them nationwide.

Hillary received the New York Times' endorsement, a newspaper that a lot of Democrats read and respect highly.

However, Obama countered that with an ever bigger endorsement. Ted Kennedy, arguably the most influential Democrat on the hill and nationwide, passionately endorsed him today. This should be a huge boost for Obama, especially among Latinos--who adore Kennedy--and liberals--who also adore Kennedy.

This is a big blow to the Clintons because they actively sought his endorsement as a member of the Democratic establishment.

Also, Caroline Kennedy, the daughter of JFK, endorsed Obama in a New York Times editorial entitled, "A President Like My Father." Representative Patrick Kennedy is also expected to endorse Obama today.

It seems that this string of endorsements is almost an insult to the Clintons because they have always been close with the Kennedys.

Florida Prediction (GOP)

Republicans:
1.) Romney 33%

2.) McCain 31%
3.) Giuliani 18%
4.) Huckabee 14%
5.) Paul 4%
6.) Hunter 0%

I have a feeling that this will be a very close race, but I think that Mitt Romney will win in Florida tomorrow night for these reasons:

1.) The economy is in shambles right now. There is massive panic about the stock market, the mortgage crisis, and growing fear of a recession.

This just happens to be Mitt Romney's favorite issue. As a business executive, and as the man responsible for turning around the financially doomed 2002 Winter Olympics, Floridians will see him as the best candidate to fix the economy.

John McCain knows this, so recently he's tried to take Florida's attention off of the economy, and onto Iraq, his strong suit. In the end, I think the voters will go with the economy, and thus, Romney.

2.) Florida is having a closed primary, meaning that independents won't be allowed to vote, which will hurt McCain.

3.) Money. Romney has outspent McCain by a ton in Florida, which means more air time, which means a more direct appeal to more voters in this very large state.

4.) Giuliani. He and McCain are battling over largely the same voting block: moderates and foreign policy conservative. I think that Giuliani will siphon off enough of those supporters and will cost McCain the victory.

Things to watch for:
-Exit polling on what is the most important issue to voters
-The Giuliani factor
-Results from absentee ballots (should benefit Romney and Giuliani)

Sunday, January 27, 2008

McCain, Romney Go Negative in FL

John McCain and Mitt Romney have been getting nasty in Florida as they go neck-and-neck in a seemingly two-way race in the state.

McCain attacked Romney in a brilliant political maneuver saying that he supported a timetable for getting out of Iraq, taking the focus off of the issue of the volatile economy, which is Romney's bread and butter issue.

By doing this, he has drawn Romney into a feud about national security and Iraq--issues where he thinks he is the stronger candidate.

Recent polls show that these two are virtually tied in Florida, and they are battling down to the last vote.

Florida governor Charlie Crist endorsed McCain last night, which can only help McCain in this tight contest, even if it only gets him a few more votes. It's that close.

Although Romney does not have the Florida establishment support, he has a seemingly infinite money supply to make things happen. He is the only candidate left on the Republican side to have substantial amounts of money going into Florida and Super Tuesday.

But all of that aside, I think that the Florida results will come down to the economy vs. national security. If the voters choose the economy as their top concern, Romney will win. If they think that national security and Iraq are more important, it'll be McCain.

Saturday, January 26, 2008

Obama Trounces Clinton in SC

South Carolina Democrats overwhelmingly supported Barack Obama today as he destroyed Hillary Clinton.

He won with 55% of the vote, while Hillary Clinton got 27%, and John Edwards got 18%.

Everyone expected Obama to beat Hillary, but not like this. He beat her by more than a 2 to 1 margin.

Hillary tried to lower expectations for herself in the days before the vote, but it obviously wasn't enough. She said that Obama had the vast support of blacks and that he would most likely win.

But he didn't just do well among blacks. He showed strong with whites and showed a wide range of support that catapulted him to this victory.

Edwards, a native son to South Carolina, did very poorly. South Carolina was considered to be his best shot because he was born here, and he won it in 2004. However, he said he will carry on to Super Tuesday to the dismay of Clinton and Obama. But he's toast.

I can't really say what impact this will have on Super Tuesday, but expect a bounce in the polls for Obama, especially in the south. But keep your eye on delegate-rich California, because I think that will decide who the nominee will be.

Friday, January 25, 2008

South Carolina Prediction (Dem)

Democrats:
1.) Obama 47%
2.) Clinton 38%
3.) Edwards 15%

This shouldn't be too close of a contest. Barack Obama will run away with the African American vote, and Hillary will do well with the whites.

John Edwards kind of gets ignored in this whole discussion, and I think most voters have already ruled him out as a viable option. If he doesn't reach 15%, expect him to consider dropping out.

Even if Obama wins, it won't help him all that much because he was expected to win. Hillary will spin it as the blacks coming out and supporting one of their own.

She will still have the advantage on Super Tuesday, even if she loses by a lot. She has been running much more of a national campaign than Obama and has the name recognition and the establishment behind her.

Something big would have to happen to make her the underdog going into February 5th.

Thursday, January 24, 2008

Thompson And Kucinich Quit

Just a quick news update.

Fred Thompson announced Tuesday that he is ending his White House bid after a poor showing in the do-or-die state of South Carolina.

This will probably help Huckabee because Thompson siphoned away many evangelicals and social conservatives from Huckabee in South Carolina. But this won't have all too much impact on the race.

Also, Dennis Kucinich decided to end his long-shot candidacy for the Democratic nomination earlier today. Seeing as he had a very small (yet loyal) base among Democrats, this should have no impact on the contest.

Clinton, McCain Emerge As Front-Runners

After a few recent primary wins, Hillary Clinton and John McCain have emerged as the front-runners of their respective parties.

Clinton won the Nevada caucuses Saturday after pulling off an upset in New Hampshire. Right now she is in excellent position to scoop up the nomination.

Right now, she is basically ceding South Carolina to Barack Obama, and is focusing on the delegate-rich Super Tuesday states of California, New York, and New Jersey.

Even if Obama manages to win South Carolina, he has not campaigned as much on a national scale. Plus, he doesn't have Bill on his side.

As of now, Clinton is in excellent position to carry New York and New Jersey--her home turf. Obama should win Illinois and the south.

That puts their delegate counts at about even. But then comes California, which has by far the most delegates and is viewed as a must-win state on both sides.

Most polls show Clinton up comfortably there, but things could change over the next two weeks as the campaigns get nastier.

California is especially important to Obama because the super delegates in most of the states voting that day will likely side with Clinton--the establishment candidate.

However, Obama has a secret weapon: John Edwards. If he shows poorly in South Carolina--as I think he will--he might drop out, meaning that most of his strong national base of supporters will flock to Obama on Super Tuesday.

But as of now, Clinton is in much better shape nationally than Obama.

On the Republican side, John McCain is now the man to beat. With his recent New Hampshire and South Carolina wins, he is in excellent position for Florida and Super Tuesday.

If he wins Florida, I think it's over. He'll win California, New Jersey, and other delegate-rich states on Super Tuesday. He may even beat Giuliani in his home state.

Right now, McCain has the name recognition, the national stature, and the momentum to go all the way. The only person that I could see stopping him is Mitt Romney.

With the economy taking center stage, Romney's business experience could help him win plenty of delegates on Super Tuesday. And with his deep pockets, he could keep the race going far past Super Tuesday.

But McCain has been through this before, and is in it for the long-haul. Expect more direct attacks on McCain from Giuliani, Romney, and Huckabee as the four-way race for Florida heats up.

We could very well see a Clinton vs. McCain general election if things don't change really really quickly.

Friday, January 18, 2008

South Carolina Prediction (GOP)

Here's my South Carolina Republican primary prediction.

Republicans:
1.) McCain 30%

2.) Huckabee 28%
3.) Thompson 18%
4.) Romney 15%
5.) Paul 5%
6.) Giuliani 4%

This one is a toughie. It's a lot harder to call than the Democratic primary.

McCain now has the support of the establishment that was against him in his crippling 2004 loss here. His war hero past and his experience in foreign policy will turn out a lot of veterans and other South Carolinians to vote for him.

However, I think that he will do poorly among evangelicals. That's where Mike Huckabee comes in.

He should rack up most of the evangelical vote--about 62% of the South Carolina Republican electorate--and should convert some people who are looking for a radical change to the tax system after all of this talk of recession.

McCain should edge out Huckabee, but expect it to be close. It could go either way.

Even though Romney is ceding South Carolina to his three competitors, he should finish in a distant fourth, right behind Fred Thompson.

This loss won't really affect the Romney campaign because he didn't really compete here. Thompson will drop out and probably endorse McCain. Although Huckabee won't win, he will finish close enough to first to battle on in Florida, and probably on Super Tuesday.

Should he win tomorrow, McCain will be in a good position in Florida and the delegate-rich states that vote on Super Tuesday.

Nevada Predictions

Here are my predictions for the Nevada caucuses that take place tomorrow.

Democrats:
1.) Obama 40%

2.) Clinton 37%
3.) Edwards 22%
4.) Kucinich 1%

Republicans:
1.) Romney 35%

2.) McCain 28%
3.) Huckabee 15%
4.)
Paul 9%
5.)
Giuliani 8%
6.) Thompson 5%

On the Democratic side, it's about two things: unions and Latinos. Hillary Clinton and Barack Obama (and John Edwards) have been vying for these votes that make up so much of the constituency of Nevada Democrats.

Obama has received the most union backing thus far, followed by Clinton, then Edwards. The union workers should give Obama a big boost tomorrow.

However, I think that Clinton will carry the majority of the Latino vote because of her strong ties to that community. In addition, the Latino community, whether they admit or not, may be uncomfortable voting for a black because of the hushed racial tension between them.

Now, there are many Latino union workers, which I think in the end, will ally themselves with their union rather than their views on race. Thus, Obama should win--but not by much.

On the Republican side, this race has been vastly overshadowed by the South Carolina primary taking place on the same day. Mitt Romney and Ron Paul are the only candidates who campaigned there. The rest are focused on winning South Carolina.

Mitt Romney has basically ceded South Carolina to John McCain, Mike Huckabee, and Fred Thompson and is focused on the state that everyone is ignoring (Nevada actually has more delegates than South Carolina).

Being the only real first-tier candidate to campaign here, and with the help of Mormons in the eastern part of the state, Mitt Romney should win here tomorrow--pretty handily.

Wednesday, January 16, 2008

Romney Wins MI; Race in Disarray

Wrong again. That puts me at 3/5. Here's the final Michigan results.

Republicans:
1.) Romney 39%

2.) McCain 30%
3.) Huckabee 16%
4.) Paul 6%
5.) Thompson 4%
6.) Giuliani 3%

This was a huge win for Mitt Romney. He needed to win to stay in this race, and his vast amounts of money and attention got him that win.

Michigan voters were most concerned about the economy, and they liked Romney's business background and the fact that he was a native son.

McCain just plain had no money to spend and is much more focused on South Carolina at the moment. He may have used too much straight talk when saying that "Michigan jobs aren't coming back. Sometimes, people just don't want to hear the truth.

Last night, most of McCain's voting constituency was composed of Democrats, independents, and people who disapproved with President Bush.

Romney overwhelming won among self-described Republicans, with McCain finishing a distant second in that category.

Now, all eyes turn to South Carolina.

McCain's problem in South Carolina is the same as it was in 2000. His constituency is not conservative enough in that highly conservative state. In 2000, Bush won the vast majority of conservatives in the state and effectively knocked McCain out of the race.

To be fair, this is a different time and a different race than it was eight years ago. But McCain has to find a way to appeal to the conservative base and win the crucial South Carolina primary.

But I'll have more on that race later this week.

Now, the GOP race is in disarray. Huckabee won in Iowa, McCain won in New Hampshire, and Romney won in Michigan (and Wyoming).

Some say that Rudy Giuliani's strategy is finally paying off. He hoped that the field would be cluttered and in disarray come Florida and Super Tuesday. And it is.

He's pinning all of his hopes on Florida, which votes in about two weeks.

There are still five men who are still plausibly viable for the Republican nomination. This race is wide open.

Monday, January 14, 2008

My Michigan Prediction (GOP)

Here are my predictions for tomorrow's Michigan Republican Primary.

Republicans:
1.) McCain 35%
2.) Romney 32%
3.) Huckabee 17%
4.) Giuliani 6%
5.) Paul 6%
6.) Thompson 4%

Despite Romney's first two losses, he and McCain should finish neck and neck here.

The economy is the hot button issue among Michigan Republicans. Michigan's economy is very reliant upon the automobile industry and is getting hit hard by the mortgage crisis.

Also, Michigan now has the highest unemployment rate in the country, at 7.4%. There is much concern about the Michigan's economy and the fear of job loss and further recession in the state.

Mitt Romney may have roots in Michigan, but his appeal among Michigan Republicans is his expertise and experience on the economy is the driving force behind his campaign here.

However, I think that McCain's momentum from New Hampshire will prove to be insurmountable.

Among Republicans, it should be a fairly even split between the two.

But Democrats and independents--who tend to side with McCain--may prove to be a factor because the Democratic National Committee stripped Michigan of all of its delegates because it moved its primary ahead of February 5th without permission. This means that many Democrats and independents alike are likely to vote in the Republican primary.

I think that their vote will give McCain enough of an edge to defeat Romney, who will have a tough time recovering after winning his third "silver."

Mike Huckabee, who does not have too much appeal among Michigan Republicans, should finish in a solid third, while Rudy Giuliani and Ron Paul will duke it out for a distant fourth.

Huckabee, however, should be rooting for Romney--his sworn enemy from Iowa--tomorrow night. A Romney win means a McCain loss, which is just what Huckabee needs going into South Carolina. The two are essentially tied there according to the most recent polls.

Right now my gut is telling me Romney will win and my brain is telling me McCain will win.

But if Romney wins tomorrow, this race will be even more wide open than it already is.

Friday, January 11, 2008

Romney Needs Michigan

I've called Mitt Romney's campaign "fading," "struggling," and even "doomed."

Now, I'm making my position perfectly that Mitt Romney has almost no chance to win the nomination.

He calls his second-place finish in Iowa and New Hampshire "silvers," but I call them complete failures. This man has ridiculous amounts of money and is using lots of it to fund his own campaign.

After vastly outspending Mike Huckabee in Iowa, and then John McCain in New Hampshire, he still has only won Wyoming.

If his money isn't the problem, then what is?

Clearly it's him. He has flipped-flopped more times than a fish out of water, and people don't trust him one bit.

He has also majorly changed his campaign message after each state.

Before Iowa, he defended Bush and the Reagan coalition. After Iowa, when Huckabee and Obama won on the "change" platform, all of the sudden he was the candidate of change. After New Hampshire, where Hillary cried and won, he got all choked up in Michigan when speaking about his father.

See the pattern?

Republicans can see right through him, which is why he has little chance in Michigan and no chance in South Carolina. He is putting a lot of his resources and most of his time into Michigan, at least until Tuesday, and needs a win there to stay alive.

I don't think his personal story about being born in Michigan or about how his daddy was governor there back in the '60s will have much sway among Michigan Republicans.

Even if he does win Michigan, I don't think he'll catch on in time in South Carolina and in the Super Tuesday states.

The only scenario I can see for him getting the nomination is if he wins Michigan and Nevada, Huckabee wins South Carolina, and McCain loses Florida.

That would virtually knock McCain out, and Romney would once again get the backing of the Republican establishment. But that scenario is incredibly unlikely.

If he loses the Michigan primary, don't expect him to drop out immediately. His money should keep him afloat until Super Tuesday. Expect his campaign to evaporate into total oblivion.

Kerry Endorses Obama

John Kerry, the former nominee of the Democratic party, endorsed Barack Obama for president yesterday in front of Obama supporters in Charleston, South Carolina.

The man who coined "Hope is on the way" is supporting the new candidate of hope among Democrats.

This decision certainly hurts John Edwards, Kerry's former running-mate.

However, it's no secret that the two were never very close. It was really just a marriage of convenience.

Edwards should have been expecting this, considering the harsh words he had for Kerry after the 2004 defeat about his weak response to the Republican attack machine.

Kerry also bypassed another colleague, Hillary Clinton, in his endorsement. He is clear that he is not supporting the establishment candidate in this race for the nomination.

Even though he lost humiliatingly to Bush in 2004, Kerry's endorsement is not to be discounted. The man's still got an e-mail list of several million Democrats, which is a major asset for the Obama campaign.

In his e-mail proclaiming his support for Obama, he said, "the next President of the United States can be, should be, and will be Barack Obama."

We'll see if this endorsement has any effect on Kerry's ex-supporters.

Thursday, January 10, 2008

Richardson Drops Out

New Mexico Governor Bill Richardson, a Democrat, officially ended his presidential bid earlier today.

After finishing in fourth place in both Iowa and New Hampshire, Richardson pretty much ran out of money and was not seeing enough support in Nevada--a state with a high Hispanic population--where he had high hopes.

Two questions come to mind from this announcement:
1.) Who do his supporters vote for now?
2.) Could we see him as the running-mate of the Democratic nominee?

The first question is tricky.

The Hispanic community--especially in Nevada, the next state to vote--on the whole seems to love Hillary Clinton for what she did as first lady. She helped out the impoverished and many minority families during that time.

But other Richardson supporters might go for Obama. Richardson said that he could get out of Iraq the fastest. His supporters might flock to Obama because his plan is the most similar to Richardson's.

My guess is that Hillary will get most of Richardson's voters, but it won't really make too much of an impact in the states to come--except maybe in Nevada.

The second question is easy.

Yes. Richardson would make an incredible running-mate. He has foreign policy experience, where he was the ambassador to the United Nations under President Clinton and has met with world leaders, friend and foe, across the world.

He is also Hispanic. I know this is a blunt statement, but it's really a very important point to bring up when discussing this topic because he is so popular among them.

With the support of the majority of the Hispanic community, the Democrats could potentially carry previously red states such as New Mexico, Colorado, and Nevada, where Bush barely won in 2004. That's almost 20 electoral votes right there--the same amount as Ohio.

The only real problem is that he did not rally much support in the early primary states. But that's not really his turf anyway. He should be high on the list of the nominee's potential running-mates.

Wednesday, January 9, 2008

Obama Gains Support of NV Unions

Barack Obama has already taken the first step in countering Hillary Clinton's narrow victory in New Hampshire.

Earlier today, he received the endorsements of two very key unions in the upcoming state of Nevada. One is the 60,000-member Culinary Workers Union.
A union official said that the endorsement was on behalf of the union and its parent, UNITE HERE, which boasts of 450,000 active members nationwide. That's a lot of people.

Hillary Clinton and John Edwards have both already received union support in Nevada, but both sought the Culinary Union's support because it is considered to be the most influential in the state.

Obama also won an endorsement from the Nevada chapter of the Service Employees International Union. This union claims to represent about 17,500 health care and county workers in Nevada.

SEIU President Vicky Hedderman said she believes Obama is a candidate "who could take the campaign all the way through November."

Both of these endorsements are huge news for the Obama campaign, as he locks into a long and tough fight with Clinton. A win in Nevada's January 19th caucuses could put Obama in great position for the South Carolina primaries that take place a week later.

Comeback Kids Win in NH

Well, I'll admit it. I called the Democratic side way wrong--along with the media and 99% of the pundits. But let's take a look at the official results from the New Hampshire primary.

Democrats:
1.) Clinton 39%

2.) Obama 37%
3.) Edwards 17%
4.) Richardson 5%
5.) Kucinich 1%
6.) Gravel 0%

Republicans:

1.) McCain 37%
2.) Romney 32%
3.) Huckabee 11%
4.) Giuliani 9%
5.) Paul 8%
6.) Thompson 1%
7.) Hunter 1%

There are many reasons being brought forth as to why Hillary Clinton won the New Hampshire Democratic primary last night, despite poor showing in the polls.

The media and the Barack Obama campaign are saying that it was her emotional moment on Monday at a diner in New Hampshire that propelled her to victory.

Sorry guys, not even close.

I think that that incident may have shown some undecided voters that she has a more human side, but it hardly propelled her to victory.

She was down by at least 8 percentage points in most polls and predictions (including my own) leading up to last night. One nearly-tearful moment can't overcome that much of a deficit.

It was really a combination of her incredible ground support, organization, and history with the people of New Hampshire that helped her get an essential win last night. This was a huge win for the Clinton campaign.

Last night's results were certainly a blow to the Obama campaign, considering the poll numbers leading up to yesterday.

But Obama is diligently pressing on, first stopping by in New Jersey, then to a fundraiser in Manhattan, then on to Nevada and South Carolina--the next two states to vote in this nomination process.

On the Republican side, the results were not shocking. John McCain's victory was expected, but still nonetheless remarkable considering his position in the campaign just this past summer, where he nearly ran out of money. This was truly a comeback for the Arizona senator.

New Hampshire Republican voters and independents looked past his liberal stance on immigration and voted for him over the struggling Mitt Romney.

McCain won by a large margin among registered independents--as he did in 2000--but was virtually tied with Romney among registered Republicans.

Romney seems to be fading quickly in this race. He is focusing all of his money and attention on the next state to vote--Michigan--his home state where his father was also governor.

He is hoping that this personal connection with the state will help to keep his campaign alive. If he loses there, expect him to at least consider dropping out.

Mike Huckabee came in third last night, followed closely by Rudy Giuliani and Ron Paul. Huckabee is looking forward to South Carolina, where he thinks his evangelical influence and southern roots will help him win in that crucial state in a week and a half.

Well, there you have it. A surprise finish for the Democrats, an expected finish for the Republicans.

Here's two things I learned from last night: never trust the polls, and never ever trust the media's predictions.

Monday, January 7, 2008

New Hampshire Predictions

Well, here I go again, putting my reputation on the line. The following are my predictions for tomorrow's New Hampshire primary.

Democrats:
1.) Obama 41%

2.) Clinton 32%
3.) Edwards 19%
4.) Richardson 7%
5.) Kucinich 1%
6.) Gravel 0%

Republicans:

1.) McCain 36%
2.) Romney 30%
3.) Huckabee 14%
4.) Paul 11%
5.) Giuliani 8%
6.) Thompson 3%
7.) Hunter 0%

First, I'll go through the Democrats.

Change change change change change. If I hear that word one more time, I might lose it. Barack Obama, Hillary Clinton, and John Edwards have all tried to explain to voters that they would be the best fit to bring change to America.

Well, the voters have decided. That agent of change is Barack Obama. In Iowa, the overwhelming majority supported him because of that message. Now he is leading in double digits in most recent New Hampshire polls.

Clinton just can't seem to convince people that she is the best fit to bring about change, and Edwards just has no money or northern appeal.

Let me say this right now. This is a two person race. Edwards is gone. After I saw that he did not come in first in Iowa, I knew he was a goner.

Independents should be the big story tomorrow. 44% of the likely New Hampshire voters are registered as independents, but may vote in either primary. Independents absolutely adore Obama. More so than McCain, who won New Hampshire in 2000 because of them.

They don't seem to respond to Clinton (or Edwards for that matter). And it is for this reason that I think Obama will once again surge ahead of these two and this contest won't even be close.

Edwards should finish at around 20% and Richardson will do better than expected at 7%, putting in good position for the eventual nominee's running mate.

Now, the more interesting side: the Republicans.

Let me start by saying that this race is wide open. However Mike Huckabee fares tomorrow night, he is still a prominent figure in this race because of his win in Iowa and his current lead in South Carolina.

The best case scenario for him is to come in a strong third in New Hampshire and Michigan. Then, he will be in a fairly good position to face the survivor of those two states in South Carolina.

But let's get back to New Hampshire. This is also a two person race between John McCain and Mitt Romney.

Right now, Romney has the slight edge over Republicans, but with independents factored in, McCain has a good lead. Unfortunately for Romney, independents will play a key role tomorrow.

McCain will lose the majority of independent voters to Obama tomorrow, but will still carry enough of them to slide comfortably by Mitt Romney.

Romney suddenly became the candidate of change once he landed in New Hampshire on Wednesday, and Republicans and independents alike will see right through it, like they saw through his opportunism in Iowa. He'll be rooting for Obama tomorrow night.

There is also a 3-way battle for third place among the Republicans between Mike Huckabee, Ron Paul, and Rudy Giuliani. This is what I will be watching for tomorrow night.

All of them are polling with 5 percentage points of each other, with Huckabee generally receiving the slight lead. But Paul's strong libertarian base in New Hampshire and massive fundraising ability should propel him into fourth place right behind Huckabee.

Giuliani's national campaign won't do him any good here, especially after receiving less than 4% in Iowa.

I think that Mike Gravel and maybe Duncan Hunter will drop out after tomorrow.

Those are my predictions. Hopefully my prediction success will continue.

Sunday, January 6, 2008

Clinton, Romney Attacked in Debates

Last night, the leading candidates of both parties met in Manchester New Hampshire at an ABC/WMUR/Facebook debate.

The Republicans took the stage first. Mitt Romney and John McCain, the two front-runners, have been sparring with ads and harsh criticisms of each other in New Hampshire.

So all eyes were on these two and Mike Huckabee, the Iowa victor, during last night's debate.

Right off the bat, pretty much every single candidate pounced on Mitt Romney. They not only attacked his stances on issues, but his character and opportunism.

McCain had some good one-liners against Romney last night such as, "We disagree on a lot of issues. But I agree, you are the candidate of change," referring to his change on issues and on message.

When Romney told Huckabee to stop characterizing his positions, Huckabee retorted, "Which one?"

These candidates all saw a chance to knock the rich and powerful Romney out of the race last night. If I had to declare a winner last night, I would say it was Huckabee or McCain. They both made their positions clear and looked strong against a wounded Romney.

Next came the Democrats.

The big question before the night was, "Who will John Edwards attack?" Some thought that he would attack Obama as the front-runner and others thought that he would try to form a "change" coalition with Obama and knock Clinton out of the race.

Well, last night, Edwards pounced on Clinton and made nice with Obama. They double-teamed her, if you will, saying that she was the status-quo candidate and a Washington insider.

I thought she did a terrific job defending herself last night. She repelled the constant barrage of attacks upon her, as she has done since she was the first lady.

Her one mistake was getting very very angry and negative after Edwards said, "You know, I didn't hear these kinds of attacks from Senator Clinton when she was ahead." I think she may have lost her head a little after that, but overall, she handled it pretty well.

She even found time to be humorous when she was asked to explain why voters found her less likable than her opponents. "Well, that hurts my feelings, but I'll try to go on."

To me, Edwards sounded like a broken record. All I kept hearing from him is "middle class" and "special interests" and "my father was a mill worker" and "take down big corporations." He did support his position on these issues well, but he seems to be lacking in variety as a candidate.

And finally, Obama did what he intended to do last night: not make any big mistakes. Out of all of the candidates, he seemed the most fatigued. His voice was hoarse and he looked exhausted when he wasn't speaking.

He may not have won the debate--I think Clinton did--but he did enough last night to remain the front-runner.

Saturday, January 5, 2008

Romney Wins Wyoming - Who Cares?

Yeah...I bet you didn't even know Wyoming had its caucuses today. Honestly, I forgot, and I'm sure I'm not alone.

Wyoming has a population of exactly five people.

The least populous state in the country has twelve national delegates at stake and has no impact at all on the Republican race as a whole (the Democratic caucuses will take place on March 3rd).

This is after they pushed their primary ahead of February 5th without the approval of the Republican Party, and got stripped of half of its national delegates.

Today, Mitt Romney took in 67% and eight delegates, Fred Thompson had 25% and three delegates, and Duncan Hunter--the long-shot--finished with 8% and one delegate.

It is thought that the Mormons, representing 10% of the state, helped him win. He also paid the most attention to this state, which was one visit and few pamphlets in the mail.

Is this a big win for Romney? Absolutely not.

Will he use this is speeches in New Hampshire in the hope that he can be seen as electable and try to slow the bleeding in his doomed campaign? Absolutely.

Iowa Fallout

Well, Iowa is finally over and done with. But that doesn't mean it's legacy is over.

There is much speculation on how much momentum Barack Obama and Mike Huckabee would carry out of victories in Iowa.

What does this mean for the two victors and the many losers coming into New Hampshire on Tuesday?

Iowa proved that young people and independents are major players in this process. Now more than ever. They came out to support Obama which helped him squash the competition in Iowa.

The equivalent on the GOP side was evangelicals, who made Huckabee the clear winner.

Going into New Hampshire, Obama's win seems more significant than Huckabee's. There is likely to be many young and independent voters on the Democratic side, who will most likely support Obama.

In response, Hillary Clinton and John Edwards, Obama's biggest competition, are trying to reach out to young voters in New Hampshire to try and make up the difference there.

With only five days in between the Iowa caucuses and the New Hampshire primaries, Clinton and Edwards are scrambling to claw their way back to the top and stop Obama's momentum. Clinton is expected to get very negative in the next three days to stop the bleeding.

Overall, Obama has better ground support in New Hampshire. He has met with more people and has better grassroots support and get-out-the-vote organization than Clinton.

His schedule up until Tuesday is filled with more public events than hers, which is surprising. I thought she would have been trying to meet with as many voters as possible like her husband did in 1992. This decision could prove fatal for her campaign if she loses again to Obama.

Meanwhile, on the Republican side, the man to beat is John McCain. He greatly benefited from Mitt Romney's loss, who is expected to drop in the polls after the devastating loss.

Romney has once again changed his message, and is focusing on change itself after Mike Huckabee won on that platform in Iowa. He attacked John McCain today saying that he is a Washington insider and would not change a thing.

Romney has changed his message over and over again, seemingly just to appeal to voters. But it has not worked. The people of Iowa saw right through him, and so will the people of New Hampshire.

There is also a battle for third place between Mike Huckabee, Ron Paul, and Rudy Giuliani. Huckabee expects his Iowa victory to land him to that position, but Ron Paul's massive fundraising and libertarian base in New Hampshire might challenge that.

Giuliani hasn't devoted all of his efforts to New Hampshire, but more so than in Iowa. He is hoping that a third place finish here could give him the media recognition he needs for running the national campaign that he intends to run.

Both Obama and McCain come into New Hampshire as front-runners, with more direct contact with voters. Clinton and Romney hope to defeat their respective opponents based on their credentials--despite their poor showing in Iowa.

Friday, January 4, 2008

Obama, Huckabee Win Big in Iowa

Well, just as I predicted (not intended with an arrogant tone), Barack Obama and Mike Huckabee won Iowa last night.

Not only did they win, but they won big last night in the long anticipated Iowa caucuses. Here are the official numbers.

Democrats:
Obama 38%
Edwards 30%
Clinton 29%
Richardson 2%
Biden 1%
Dodd 0%
Kucinich 0%
Gravel 0%

Republicans:
Huckabee 34%
Romney 25%
Thompson 13%
McCain 13%
Paul 10%
Giuliani 4%
Hunter 1%

There was record turnout on both sides with about 239,000 turning out on the Democratic side and about 120,000 on the Republican side.

This big showing greatly helped Obama win. Large numbers of independents and young voters--historically unreliable bases--came out in droves for Obama, propelling him to win by 8 percentage points.

Also, the second-choice supporters of Kucinich and Richardson may have helped him to a smaller degree.

Surprisingly, Obama defeated Clinton among women, which was thought to be her strong base. He also showed strong with first time caucus-goers and independents. They really took to his message of change and national unification that he made consistently in Iowa.

These results were also a major blow to John Edwards and Hillary Clinton.

Edwards poured almost all of his resources into Iowa, and did not really stop campaigning there after 2004. He proclaimed his second-place showing to be a victory, but it will really hurt him in the long-run. He will need a miracle to make a comeback in the states ahead.

Last night was especially disappointing to Clinton, who was told initially by some her advisers not to campaign in Iowa, and focus on a more national campaign.

Maybe she should have done just that. She spent a lot of her resources in this state where she knew she had high negative ratings.

Now she will campaign with Bill in New Hampshire, a state where independents make up 40% of the total New Hampshire electorate, who generally support Obama.

He will get a lot of momentum over the next five days, and it may well be enough to carry him to victory in New Hampshire.

In other news, Senators Chris Dodd and Joe Biden dropped out of the race after their poor showing in Iowa. They have yet to endorse any other candidates.

On the Republican side, Mike Huckabee beat out his main competitor, Mitt Romney, by 9 percentage points even though Romney outspent him by about 15 to 1 in Iowa.

Huckabee was largely helped by evangelical voters, who made up 60% of Iowa Republican voters. Now, they both turn to New Hampshire.

But this victory really makes the Republican race much more interesting. This loss will most likely hurt Mitt Romney in New Hampshire, as he will try to make a stand there.

These results greatly help John McCain, who was already on the rise in New Hampshire, even before yesterday. His major competitor in that state is the wounded Mitt Romney.

In Iowa, McCain tied Fred Thompson for third with 13% of the vote. Thompson confirmed that he would remain in the race. He is making his stand in South Carolina.

Meanwhile, Ron Paul finished with a strong 10%, finishing just behind McCain and Thompson. These results may help him secure a fourth or even third place finish in New Hampshire.

Giuliani finished with a resounding 4%, which is not really all that surprising considering he did not spend all that much time and money in the state. He is hoping that the field is still unsettled come Super Tuesday and he can emerge in the confusion.

We'll see how these results--and the spin--affect the New Hampshire results on both sides.

Wednesday, January 2, 2008

Iowa Predictions

My guess is really as good as anyone's as to who wins in Iowa. And it is very likely that I will be horribly wrong, but following this race very closely, here are my predictions for the January 3rd Iowa Caucuses.

Democrats
1.) Obama 31%
2.) Edwards 29%
3.) Clinton 28%
4.) Richardson 6%
5.) Biden 5%
6.) Dodd 1%
7.) Kucinich 0%
8.) Gravel 0%

Republicans
1.) Huckabee 31%
2.) Romney 29%
3.) McCain 13%
4.) Thompson 12%
5.) Paul 9%
6.) Giuliani 6%
7.) Hunter 0%

Both races will be extremely close, and the results will be a matter of turnout. I think that turnout will be larger than expected in Iowa--over 150,000 the Democratic side and about 100,000 on the Republican side.

I predict that Barack Obama will win Iowa by a very small margin over John Edwards and Hillary Clinton.

Independents and first-time caucus goers will show up in droves for Obama, catapulting him to first place. Edwards will finish a close second second because of the wide support he will receive as the second choice of also-ran candidates like Bill Richardson, Joe Biden, and Chris Dodd.

Kucinich supporters will caucus for Obama and he'll still do very will as a second choice candidate.

Both Obama and Edwards have gained momentum recently in Iowa, which definitely counts in Iowa--demonstrated by Kerry's come-from-behind win in 2004.

Clinton will do well after the first round of voting, but will fall into third place after the second choices of also-rans are counted. The high turnout of independents and young voters will hurt her and help the other two.

Richardson will come in a very distant fourth, followed closely by Biden, then Dodd. They will drop out after New Hampshire.

On the Republican side, I predict that the high turnout will favor Mike Huckabee and he will win in Iowa. First-time caucus goers will support him in great numbers and he will edge out Mitt Romney in Iowa.

Iowa Republicans are very concerned about character and social issues. They like Huckabee more in both of those categories and will give him enough votes to win. In the past, social issues candidates have fared well here.

He is also more likable than Romney and is more similar to most Iowans.

Mitt Romney, despite vastly outspending Huckabee, will finish in a close second here. The high turnout will hurt him badly here.

John McCain will edge out Fred Thompson for third because of his strong patriotism and consistency with the surge in Iraq and other major issues.

Ron Paul will get an surprising 9% in Iowa putting him just behind McCain and Thompson.

Like I said, these predictions are just about as good as anyone's, because both of these races are so close. We'll see how close I come to being right.

Kucinich Supports Obama in Iowa

Rep. Dennis Kucinich of Ohio asked his supporters yesterday to make Sen. Barack Obama their second choice in Iowa if he does not meet the 15% threshold in precincts in Iowa.

If a candidate does not meet this threshold in a particular precinct, their supporters must support a candidate who has reached that mark or they can go home (this is only true on the Democratic side).

This is why second choice candidates are so important in Iowa, and the top three candidates have been vying for Richardson, Biden, Dodd, and Kucinich's supporters to make them their second choice if they do not make 15%.

Kucinich is the first also-ran candidate to openly declare an alliance with another candidate. However, he is polling very poorly in Iowa as of late, coming in consistently at 1 or 2%.

Kucinich did say that this agreement with Obama was only relevant in Iowa and not New Hampshire or any other states.

But, this could be the boost Obama needed with 2 days to go before the Iowa caucuses and could just be enough to tip the balance for him in the very tight three-way race in Iowa.

We'll see how much impact this and other campaign alliances will have on January 3rd.

Electability: The Democrats

Here's how I think the top 3 Democrats would fare in the general election.

1.) Barack Obama
Despite what many people think, Obama would be a uniter--at least to some extent. He is fairly liberal, about as much as Clinton, and would easily rally the liberal base. He also has great appeal among independents, young people, and even some Republicans, which could prove key in the general election. Not to mention he is a gifted orator. He is also the only major Democratic contender who has opposed the Iraq War from the start, which would be a major asset. I believe that his race would not be a major issue surrounding his campaign, but more his "lack of experience", even though he has more experience in public office than Clinton. This would only really hurt against someone like McCain. He also might make some rookie mistakes on the campaign trail, but overall he is the most electable Democrat.

2.) Hillary Clinton
Paired up against anyone but McCain or maybe Giuliani, Clinton would have no real problems winning the electoral college. She is well-known, well-respected (even among her opponents) and has Bill on her side. However, she is the most divisive figure in American politics--even in her own party. Generally, you're either with her or against her--not much room in the middle, which could prove risky for her. And, she has flip-flopped on the Iraq War, which would come back to bite her in the general election--hard.

3.) John Edwards
Edwards was likable in 2004. Not anymore. He has been very angry this campaign railing against "special interest" groups (which don't even really exist as a block) and big corporations. His populist message of taking them down will not resonate in many safe Democratic states. Many of these states might be up for grabs because of his angry anti-corporate message. The American people would realize that these "special interests" and corporations are the foundation of our economy and capitalism as we know it. In 2004, Edwards did not help John Kerry's campaign one bit as the vice presidential nominee. Don't expect that to change if he gets the nomination.

Tuesday, January 1, 2008

Electability: The Republicans

Here's my take on how electable the major contenders would fare in the general election.

First, the Republicans.

1.) John McCain
McCain is one of the only Republican contenders who could unite the party against the Democrats and put up a strong fight in November. He is a true conservative (except on immigration), has not wavered on any major issues (except the Bush tax cuts), and is experienced and well-known. He has supported the Iraq War and the surge from the start and has stood by it even when it was unpopular to do so. And, he could woo plenty of independents in the general election which could prove key in the swing states. On the other hand, the man will be 72 come election and may not be in any shape to campaign widely.

2.) Rudy Giuliani
Yes, Giuliani is a social liberal, but he could easily get the support of most conservatives and a good deal of moderates, especially in the New York metropolitan area. With an emphasis on national security, terrorism and how he handled 9/11 in NYC, he could put states like New Jersey and Pennsylvania into play. But, his social liberalness could give way to a 3rd party candidate with emphasis on moral values. And he has a lot of baggage coming into the race.

3.) Mitt Romney
Romney has faltered a bit so far on the campaign trail, but he's working hard to put himself out there as a true conservative. He can definitely rally the conservative base (mostly Bushies), and maybe some moderates. But his flip-flopping on abortion, gay rights, and other things he said to get elected governor of Massachusetts and his Mormonism would turn off a lot of voters. Expect a 3rd party with emphasis on "true" Christian values to emerge should he get the nomination. He is also wildly unpopular with young voters as well as poor voters and would alienate much of the moderates with his old-style Reagan-esque conservatism.

4.) Mike Huckabee
As an ex-minister, he could swoop up just about every evangelical in the country along with many grass roots conservatives. However, he has not proven to have a great fiscal record, including getting rid of the IRS and having the Arkansas economy plummet, and would alienate many fiscal conservatives and moderates--even if he does have Chuck Norris's support.

5.) Fred Thompson
There is just nothing special about Fred Thompson. He would do little more than keep on the true conservative base. Moderates and independents would look the other way.

6.) Ron Paul
No way. Sorry guys.