Check out my rundown of the 2010 Senate races here

Saturday, October 25, 2008

Why is McCain Campaigning in Iowa?

Beats me.


Sarah Palin is campaigning in Sioux City, Iowa today, and John McCain will follow her tonight in Waterloo, CBS News' Scott Conroy reports:


The Democrats are maintaining a solid lead in the latest Iowa polls, and the state's dynamics would seem to suit the Democrats. Iowa was the state that catapulted Obama to the front of the Democratic pack after his victory in the state's caucuses in January, and John McCain finished a distant fourth in the Republican field.


Still, the Republicans have to compete in states with less than ideal conditions, and one GOP operative with strong Iowa ties recently told CBS News that internal polling numbers show that the state could be a lot closer than the polls indicate.


According to the RealClearPolitics polling average, Barack Obama has an 11.4 point lead over McCain. According to Electoral-Vote.com, McCain is down by ten points. FiveThirtyEight.com has him down by 12.4 points. Pollster.com has him down by 11.5 points.


Listen, John, your internals better have you a hell of a lot closer than those totals. Iowa, much like Pennsylvania, is essentially out of your reach. Instead of trying to make it seem like you're on the offensive, you should be in must-win states like Colorado and Virginia, where yeah, you're down, but you're certainly not out.


Why would you spend one of your precious few days (and a weekend at that) in a state that is all but out-of-play when you could be in states like Ohio, Florida, Missouri, or North Carolina, where Obama's leads are razor-thin?


I still contend that you should have fired your chief campaign strategists about a month ago, and now, they are completely delusional about your chances in states like Iowa. If you lose this thing--and right now it's looking like you are--people are going to make excuses that Barack Obama won because of the economic crisis or George Bush's legacy.


But another reason that most people will ignore is how badly your campaign has been run. This is not necessarily all on you, but it speaks volumes about who you surrounded yourself with in your campaign, and how they made a relatively good candidate run a terrible strategic campaign.


Take a lot at where Barack Obama and Joe Biden were today. Obama held rallies in Nevada then New Mexico, two pivotal states where he has a really good chance of winning, especially the latter. Biden was campaigning in Virginia today, one of the highly competitive states that is likely to put his ticket over the 270-electoral vote threshold on election night. That is how you are supposed to spend your last ten days before an election.


So get out of Waterloo, Sioux City, Pittsburgh, or Harrisburg or wherever you're going, and spend your last precious days and dollars where you have a remote chance of winning.

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