An Open Letter to John McCain

The following is an open letter to John McCain on his campaign's strategy:

Dearest John,

What the hell are you doing? You spent the past three days campaigning in Wisconsin, Minnesota and today you're in Iowa? Are you kidding me? All three of those states are clearly a deep shade of blue right now.

You're down by about 8 percentage points in Minnesota, 9 points in Wisconsin and about 12 points behind in Iowa. I don't know if your internals look any better than those numbers (they had better), but those states should not be your main concern right now.

Especially Iowa, where you are delivering a speech as I write, which you essentially conceded during the first debate when you said you were against ethanol subsidies. This is a state that Obama spent nearly a year in and a state in which you basically skipped.

In Minnesota, even the Republican Senate candidate Norm Coleman is distancing himself from you:

[Norm] Coleman told reporters that he would not be appearing at a planned rally with McCain this afternoon. Could it be McCain's sliding polling numbers in Minnesota? His attacks on Obama? Coleman said he needs the time to wo
rk on suspending his own negative ads.

"Today," he said, "people need hope and a more positive campaign is a start."

You know things are bad when guys from your own team are trying to distance themselves from you. Coleman is a moderate, and clearly thinks that your ship is sinking and does not want to go down with it.

You should really be focusing on states that you have a fighting chance in and the ones that you absolutely need to secure 270 electoral votes on November 4th.

For instance, you can take a trip to North Carolina, where the 11-point lead you had a month ago has collapsed, and now Obama leads there by one point.

Or you could visit Missouri where you had a 7-point lead a month ago, and it is now tied. Don't you think visits to those places could be more useful? Don't you think you need to hold these Bush states before going on the offensive?

Let's face it. You are on the defensive. You're probably going to lose all of the Kerry states to Obama, as well as Iowa and New Mexico. That puts Obama at 264 electoral votes, just six shy of the 270 needed to clinch the White House.

You have to defend Virginia (13 electoral votes), Colorado (9), Ohio (20), Florida (27), North Carolina (15), Nevada (5), Missouri (11), and Indiana (11). If Obama wins one of these states, he wins the election. And right now, Obama is leading narrowly in all of those states except for Indiana--where you have a small lead--and Missouri, where it is tied.

You should be campaigning constantly in these must-win states before going after Kerry states where you are down by eight points or more, where local Republican candidates are avoiding making appearances with you, and where Obama's ground game dwarfs your's. Get your priorities in order, or fire your campaign manager or something. I think I'm available for the next 24 days...

Sincerely,
Adam Carlson