State of the Race: 11 Days to Go

I'm a bit pressed for time, so I'd like to give you just the numbers and a brief analysis of them. Here are my averages for each of the 18 battleground states (I've removed Michigan from the list, Obama leads by over 15 points there) with 11 days to go before election day. The states are listed from most to least competitive.

North Carolina (15)--Obama +1.6
Missouri (11)--Obama +2.1
North Dakota (3)--McCain +2.1
Montana (3)--McCain +2.2
Florida (27)--Obama +2.3
Indiana (3)--Obama +2.7
Nevada (5)--Obama +2.8
Georgia (15)--McCain +5.1
Ohio (20)--Obama +5.4
Colorado (9)--Obama +5.6
Virginia (13)--Obama +6.9
West Virginia (5)--McCain +7.0
New Hampshire (4)--Obama +7.9
New Mexico (5)--Obama +8.4
Pennsylvania (21)--Obama +10.9
Wisconsin (10)--Obama +11.4
Minnesota (10)--Obama +11.6
Iowa (7)--Obama +13.1

TODAY'S ELECTORAL VOTE PROJECTION:
Obama: 375
McCain: 163

A batch of Big 10 Battleground polls from the University of Wisconsin that came out yesterday shows Obama up by double digits in Ohio, Pennsylvania, Michigan, Illinois, Minnesota, Wisconsin, Iowa, and even Indiana. Quinnipiac has Obama ahead by 14 points in Ohio, 13 points in Pennsylvania, and 5 points in Florida.

Some are saying that yesterday was McCain's worst polling day of the year. However, the national tracking polls did not change drastically--all of the action was at the state level. Polls showing him down double digits in Pennsylvania and Ohio--both of which have become must-win states for him--as well as in Indiana is really bad news for the McCain campaign.

Even more bad news comes from reliably red Montana, where a new poll from MSU-Billings shows Obama up by four points there. Also of note is the fact that Ron Paul is on the ballot in that state and he drew 4 percent of the vote in the same poll--the exact difference between Obama and McCain.

Also, a new Insider Advantage poll shows Obama with a lead (albeit an insignificant one) in Georgia. If McCain is having trouble defending deep red states such as this at this point in the campaign, it bodes ill for him on election night.

McCain does get some good news out of a Strategic Vision poll in Florida--where he leads by two points--and Ohio--where he leads by three. But take into account that Strategic Vision is a notoriously right-leaning pollster. McCain also gets some good news out of a Rasmussen poll in North Carolina, where he also leads Obama by two points. But my model still shows Obama with leads in all three of these states.