State of the Race: 12 Days to Go

So here's a quick look at where the 19 battleground states currently stand, in order from most to least competitive based on recent polling. I have averaged the totals of three poll averaging websites--RealClearPolitics.com, Electoral-Vote.com and FiveThirtyEight.com--for each of these states. Let's take a look.

Florida (27 EV's)--Obama +1.5
I thought that this classic swing state would have trended to John McCain at this point in the race, but Barack Obama has gotten some good numbers here in the most recent polls. He is also heavily outspending and out-advertising McCain in the state. But this is a must-win for McCain.

North Carolina (15 EV's)--Obama +1.8
Who would have thought that at this point in the race, a state that George Bush won by 12 and 13 points in 2000 and 2004, respectively, would still be in play? Obama is making a hard push to flip North Carolina's fifteen electoral votes that have not gone for a Democrat since Jimmy Carter in 1976. This state will be interesting to watch on election night, because not only is this state a tossup in the presidential race, but there are extremely close senatorial and gubernatorial races happening in this state. This is also a must-win state for McCain.

Missouri (11 EV's)--Obama +1.9
This state is typically a bellwether for the rest of the country, as it has voted for the winning candidate in the presidential election in the last 12 elections. This is another state McCain must carry if he wants any shot at reaching 270 electoral votes.

Indiana (11 EV's)--McCain +2.1
The Hoosier State is usually a reliable red state, but Obama has made a huge push for the state. This state's polls close at 6:00 P.M. on election day and the first results from the state will be an early indicator of just how bad things are going to be for McCain for the rest of the night.

Nevada (5 EV's)--Obama +2.7
Even though Nevada only has five electoral votes, victory in the state has become crucial in the McCain campaign's electoral math. The Hispanics vote will play a huge role in the state's final results, and right now they seem to be trending heavily towards Obama.

North Dakota (3 EV's)--McCain +3.0
Yeah, I'm surprised that this state is so high up on this list as well (or even the fact that's it's on this list at all). This is a state that Bush won by 27 and 28 points in the last two elections. Obama removed most of his resources and staff from the state earlier in the Fall, but now they're considering moving them back as a result of their surprisingly strong recent poll numbers.

Ohio (20 EV's)--Obama +3.4
Ah yes, the classic battleground and bellwether state, home of Joe the Plumber and a long history of indecisiveness. Obama's ground and turnout operation here are said to be massive and unprecedented. McCain absolutely needs this state to reach 270.

Montana (3 EV's)--McCain +4.6
Like North Dakota, this should be a state that McCain should win easily. But the most recent polls show the race nearly dead even there. This is a state with a high number of libertarians and traditional conservatives, yet it does have a Democratic governor and one Democratic senator.

Colorado (9 EV's)--Obama +5.2
Obama's lead has remained pretty steady here in the last month, and many think Obama has built a formidable firewall here. McCain recently stopped his advertising here, showing that he thinks the state is slipping too far away. I will be watching this state very closely on election night, because it may very well put Obama over the top.

Georgia (15 EV's)--McCain +6.4
I'm really surprised that the race is this close here this late in the game. The Obama team has been encouraged by the most recent poll numbers here and is considering upping the effort and making a real push for it before election day.

Virginia (13 EV's)--Obama +6.7
I also thought that this state would be a lot closer this late this close to election day, but Obama holds a strong lead here and has built up something of a firewall. His surge and main area of support is in the Washington, D.C. suburbs in Northern Virginia. This is yet another must-win state for McCain.

West Virginia (5 EV's)--McCain +7.3
For a little while, it looked like Obama could pick off this overwhelmingly white state where he got about a quarter of the vote in the primaries. But more recent polls have him down by a larger margin, and this state is not likely to switch hands this year.

New Hampshire (4 EV's)--Obama +7.6
This is one of the few states that switched hands between 2000 and 2004, and has always been very competitive. This state revived McCain's primary campaigns in 2000 and 2004, and he is liked and respected up there. But their fear of four more years of Bush might trump their affection for McCain. This is probably the best shot McCain has of picking off a blue state, and right now it is the most competitive Kerry state.

New Mexico (5 EV's)--Obama +8.2
It has been pretty well-established that this state, along with Iowa, were the two Bush states that were definitely going to change hands this year. The McCain campaign has essentially abandoned the state and Obama should carry it by a significant margin on election night.

Minnesota (10 EV's)--Obama +10.4
McCain and the Republicans held their convention here in September, but it's looking like they are not going to flip the state this year. They have recently dialed down their advertising and organizational efforts here in a sign that this state is essentially out of reach.

Wisconsin (10 EV's)--Obama +10.6
This state is very similar demographically to Minnesota, except that it has a larger population of independents and has a much stronger anti-Bush feel to it. McCain has also stopped his advertising here in the past week. I expect Obama to carry this state easily on November 4.

Pennsylvania (21 EV's)--Obama +10.8
Take a minute and look how far down this state is on this list. Then look at the lead Obama has. This is the state that McCain is placing all of his hope in. Not Colorado, not Virginia, but Pennsylvania. The most recent polls show Obama up by double digits here, despite a vastly increased effort in the state by the McCain campaign. Good luck picking this one off, guys.

Iowa (7 EV's)--Obama +12.2
As soon as McCain said that he was against ethanol subsidies, he basically conceded this state. During the primaries, McCain basically ignored the state and Obama essentially lived in the state for about a year. The Iowan voters that gave the early advantage over Hillary Clinton in the primaries know him very well. It has been a foregone conclusion for a while that Obama would carry Iowa by a significant margin.

Michigan (17 EV's)--Obama +14.4
I don't even know why I'm still calling this a battleground state. Ever since McCain pulled out of this state last month, his poll numbers have taken a serious nose dive. He has almost zero chance of carrying the state now.