Ron Paul Could Be a Spoiler in Montana

It's been months since Ron Paul officially dropped out of the race for the Republican nomination. But the Libertarian-turned-Republican Congressman from Texas might still play a major role in the general election--well, at least in Montana.

The Montana Constitution Party nominated Paul in the summer, but he has not been campaigning in the state and has even asked supporters to write in Chuck Baldwin, the national Constitution Party candidate. Paul even asked the secretary of state’s office to remove his name from the ballot, but state officials said they couldn’t.

However, Montana Republicans are worried that Paul might draw away enough votes from John McCain to tip the state into Barack Obama's favor. Recent polls show the race tightening in this typically reliable red state, which has not voted for a Democrat since Bill Clinton in 1992, when Ross Perot siphoned off a large number of Republican voters from George H.W. Bush.

A recent MSU-Billings from the state showed that Paul was drawing 4% of the vote--the exact margin Obama was winning by. Other polls show that McCain has a slight lead in the state.

During the Republican primaries, some of Paul’s strongest support came in Montana. He received about 25% of the vote in the state’s June primary--even after it was clear McCain was the party’s presumptive nominee. Paul is especially popular in the western part of the state, where there a many independent and libertarian-minded voters--many of whom really like their guns, and don't trust McCain or Obama on that issue.

Obama has been pouring money and resources into Montana in attempt to flip the state, while McCain has largely ignored Montana, although the RNC will begin independently airing ads there this week.

Even though Paul's quest for the presidency is long over, the Ron Paul Revolution may live on to fight another day and make a difference on November 4--again, at least in Montana.