McCain Puts All Hope in Pennsylvania

Yesterday, CNN reported that two top McCain campaign strategists had said that they were basically abandoning New Mexico (5 EV's) and Iowa (7 EV's), two states that George Bush won in 2004, where Barack Obama leads heavily in the polls (he leads by about 8 points in New Mexico and by about 12 points in Iowa).

CNN also reported that McCain might be conceding Colorado, a state where Obama leads by about 5 points in the polls. One source from the McCain campaign said that while the polls in Colorado remain close, he and most others in the operation were of the opinion that the Obama campaign and its allies have a far superior ground/turnout operation and said "most of us have a hard time counting on Colorado."But a few operatives from the campaign are now saying that they still believe the state is still in play.

However, the New York Times reported today that McCain is reducing his advertising in Colorado as well as four states that John Kerry won in 2004: New Hampshire, Wisconsin, Minnesota, and Maine. This move is not necessarily a permanent one, but it certainly shows a shift of priorities in his campaign.

So okay, let's assume that Obama wins all of the states Kerry won in 2004 (Obama leads in all of these states by at least 9 points) plus Iowa and New Mexico. That would give him 264 electoral votes, just six shy of the 270 needed to put him over the top. Now, since McCain is pulling most of his advertising money out of Colorado, let's give that to Obama as well. That gives him 273 electoral votes, making him our next president.

In this scenario, even McCain he carries all of the other swing states, he still loses 273-265 in the electoral college. So what's his strategy now? Well, it's simple.

His strategy is to win Ohio, Florida, North Carolina, Virginia, Missouri, Nevada, and Indiana--all of which are must-win states where the race is essentially tied or Obama is ahead--and to pick off Pennsylvania and its 21 electoral votes from the Democrats. Yes, I'm serious.

McCain seems to be giving up on any path to victory that does not involve Pennsylvania, a state that has not voted for a Republican in 20 years. His victory strategy depends on a state where he is down by an average of about 11 points and where registered Democrats outnumber registered Republicans by 1.1 million. Yikes.

Here's Al Giordano's take on this...um...brave new strategy:

But here's what I think is going on at McCain strategy central: They're getting tired of the daily drumbeat on cable TV news and by newspaper pundits that says things like, "here are the six or seven swing states, all of them voted for Bush in 2004, Obama is winning or tied in most of them, and for McCain to win he has to run the table, taking every single one of them or it's over."

That message - that there is only one narrow Electoral College path to victory for McCain, while there are multiple ones for Obama - has cast a deathly spell over the GOP base's enthusiasm, which is now being reflected in paltry early voting numbers by Republican voters, especially in Nevada and North Carolina. And so they're trying to offer the faithful a belief in the suggestion that McCain, too, has multiple paths to win.

So basically Al thinks that McCain may be trying to use Pennsylvania--a state where his numbers have nowhere to go but up--in order to create a sense of momentum that may increase enthusiasm among his supporters in traditionally red states and change the narrative of the race. The campaign wants to appear like its on the offensive, not just defending old Bush states.

Pennsylvania Gov. Ed Rendell, a Democrat, said Tuesday: "Pennsylvania is essential to their [McCain's] victory plan, though it's a longshot. If you assume Iowa is gone and New Mexico is gone and Virginia is gone, they have to win a substantial blue state. And we're the best choice out of a lot of bad choices."

I am guessing that the McCain team chose this state to make their final stand because Obama underperformed there in the primaries and they believe that they can pick off some Hillary Clinton supporters in the central part of the state, which is more rural and socially conservative. But we all know that he's going to have to woo those people over with something other than the economy. Maybe he'll throw out his principles and inject Rev. Jeremiah Wright back into the mix to try and make the campaign about race. Hell, it worked during the primaries.

This move strikes me as a desperate one. The word kamikaze comes to mind. McCain is betting the farm on a state where nearly every public poll shows that Obama will win the state in a landslide. McCain's political director Michael Duhaime said that their internal data is trending is trending in McCain's favor. I would really like to see those numbers, and how they know that their internal data is better than all of the other public polls out there.

Now, I believe that the polls are exaggerating Obama's lead in Pennsylvania and I don't think he's winning there by double digits. The polls should tighten in the next two weeks, but I do think that Obama still holds a significant advantage there. I understand why the McCain campaign has targeted this state, but I think they would be better suited to go after Colorado, where the race looks closer.

I'll leave you with a passage from Nate Silver:

The McCain campaign does not have any particular idea how they're going to win Pennsylvania, nor why the public polls have the state wrong -- they're just hoping their numbers are right, and hoping that something comes together for them.

As a famous Democrat once said, of course, hope is not a strategy.