Senate Update: 6 Days to Go

It is a foregone conclusion that the Democrats will retain control of the Senate (as well as the House) this year, and that they will gain seats in both halls of Congress.

But the real question is whether or not Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee (DSCC) Chairman Sen. Chuck Schumer and the Democrats can pick off enough seats to have 60 seats in the Senate. If the Democrats reach that 60-seat threshold, the Republicans cannot filibuster any legislation and Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid will have complete control over what gets discussed on the Senate floor.

Right now there are 49 Democrats, 49 Republicans, and 2 Independents. One of the Independents, Bernie Sanders of Vermont, always votes with the Democrats. The other Independent is Joe Lieberman of Connecticut, the former Democratic vice presidential nominee who now supports John McCain. In the past, he has generally voted with the Democrats except on foreign policy issues.

So if we include Sanders and Lieberman as Democrats, they have a 51-49 majority right now. Democrats are heavily favored to pick up the open seats in Virginia, New Mexico and Colorado, which were all formerly occupied by Republicans. Assuming the Democrats pick those three states up, they now have a 54-46 majority.

Now, let's take a look at the eight closest Senate races, all of which have Republican incumbents. The Democrats need to win six of the eight listed below to reach that 60-seat majority. I have averaged the totals of three poll averaging websites--RealClearPolitics.com, Electoral-Vote.com and FiveThirtyEight.com--for each of these eight races. The races are listed from most to least competitive--the Democrats are in blue and the Republicans in red, and incumbents are marked with an asterisk.

Minnesota--Franken +0.8
The Democratic candidate, Al Franken, is a former liberal talk show radio host and comedian. He is up against incumbent Norm Coleman, a moderate Republican who is suffering from the GOP voter apathy that is happening across the country. The polls have been all over the place for this race, but it looks like its about even with about a week to go before election day. Also of note is that the Independent candidate, Dean Barkley, is polling at around 17-20% right now and appears to be drawing an equal number of Democrats and Republicans. However, he might have just enough impact to greatly affect who wins this race. It should be a close one, and one that I'll be watching closely.

North Carolina--Hagan +2.0
One-term incumbent Elizabeth Dole, wife of Bob Dole, is facing the fight of her life against State Senator Kay Hagan. Dole was the chairwoman of the National Republican Senatorial Committee in the disastrous 2006 midterm elections. To many North Carolina voters, she represents the continuation of the policies of George Bush and the old guard, but still has excellent name recognition in the state. Hagan may benefit from up-ticket supporters of Barack Obama, especially among African Americans.

Alaska--Begich +2.5
40-year incumbent Senator Ted Stevens looked like he was polling even with Anchorage Mayor Mark Begich until he was found guilty on seven counts of lying on his Senate disclosure forms to try to hide illegal gifts he received from an oil services company executive. He could face up to 35 years in jail, and given his age (he is 84), that probably means life in jail. The DSCC has stopped pouring money into the race and it looks like Begich will flip that seat. No polls have been taken in Alaska since Stevens's verdict, so expect the gap to widen in the next 6 days.

Georgia--Chambliss* +2.7
This race is probably the best shot for the Democrats to pick up their 60th seat. This race was not supposed to be close, but incumbent Saxby Chambliss is now very narrowly ahead of former Rep. Jim Martin. Chambliss and the state GOP are facing the massive voter registration drives of the Obama campaign. Obama believes he can pick up the state and is only a few points behind John McCain in the polls. Like Kay Hagan in North Carolina, Jim Martin will benefit from African American up-ticket voters that will and already have showed up to vote for Obama. This is definitely a race to watch on election night.

Kentucky--McConnell* +3.8
Remember when Democratic Senate Minority Leader Tom Daschle lost his seat in the 2004 election? Well, the same thing might happen to Republican Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell this time around. Kentucky is usually a reliable red state, and Obama isn't making a strong push here like he is in North Carolina and Virginia. McConnell is favored to hold his seat, but is facing a surprisingly competitive race against wealthy businessman Bruce Lunsford. McConnell's ties to the Bush administration may be his demise, but his fundraising and incumbency advantage may save him.

Oregon--Merkley +4.3
Incumbent Gordon Smith is a moderate Republican in a Democratic state, and his chances at six more years do not look good. Smith has very low approval ratings in Oregon and is trailing his opponent, State House Speaker Jeff Merkley. This race is representative of the national Democratic swing and the tarnishing of the Republican name. Oregon does voting by mail only, so most Oregonians have probably voted, so even if Merkley (or Obama) makes a major gaffe in the last week, those votes are already in and the effects may not matter that much. All in all, this seat looks ripe to flip.

Mississippi (Special)--Wicker* +7.6
Roger Wicker took over Trent Lott's senate seat in 2007, and is facing former governor Ronnie Musgrove in a special election this year. Musgrove is a very conservative Democrat, maybe even more to the right of some Republicans in the Senate, but his seat would be an improvement over Wicker for the Democrats. The race looked close up until this past week, when the polls showed the race opening up in favor of Wicker. Barring a national Democratic landslide, this seat looks like a longshot for the Democrats. Georgia and Kentucky are more likely to put the Democrats over the 60-seat hump.

New Hampshire--Shaheen +8.0
Incumbent John Sununu is facing former governor Jeanne Shaheen in a rematch of the 2002 open seat contest. Back then, Sununu won by 4%, but that was during a period of Republican dominance. In 2006, Democratic governor John Lynch was re-elected by 47 points, both of the House seats in the state flipped from Republicans to Democrats, and Dems won the majority in both the state House and Senate, so the state is clearly shifting to the left. Sununu has drawn criticism from both the right and the left in his six years in office, and Shaheen has been ahead of him in almost every poll. This state is very likely going to switch over to the Democrats.