State of the Race: 5 Days to Go

We have 32 new state polls today. Here's the averages for the battleground states with five days to go before election day:

Missouri (11)--Obama +0.4
Indiana (11)--McCain +0.6
North Carolina (15)--Obama +1.8
Montana (3)--McCain +2.2
Florida (27)--Obama +2.7
North Dakota (3)--McCain +3.1
Georgia (15)--McCain +4.1
Ohio (20)--Obama +4.9
Nevada (5)--Obama +5.8
Arizona (10)--McCain +6.2
Colorado (9)--Obama +6.7
Virginia (13)--Obama +6.8
West Virginia (5)--McCain +8.0
New Mexico (5)--Obama +8.4
Pennsylvania (21)--Obama +10.1
Wisconsin (10)--Obama +10.4
New Hampshire (4)--Obama +11.1
Iowa (7)--Obama +11.2
Minnesota (10)--Obama +12.4

TODAY'S ELECTORAL VOTE PROJECTION:
Obama: 364
McCain: 174

Both candidates get some good news from today's state polls, but overall the status of the battleground states has not changed very much. The national polls (which mean close to nothing) show McCain down by about 6 points. He needs to close that lead by about one point per day to have a chance in many of these states--and that is no easy feat when you have inferior ground operations, an inferior advertising budget and no real central campaign theme.

Over the past few days, every battleground state (except for North Dakota) have been polled and many of the major battleground states (Colorado, Virginia, Ohio, Florida, Nevada, Pennsylvania, North Carolina etc.) have been polled extensively. So we have a pretty good idea of where the race stands.

The good news for the McCain campaign comes from Indiana, where a Reuters/Zogby poll puts McCain up by six points. Rasmussen has him up by 3. However, an Indy Star/Selzer poll puts Obama up by one point, but that poll has had a Democratic lean this cycle. Notice that Indiana was the first state in over a week to change hands in my model. McCain now leads by 0.4 points overall, and I still consider it to be a toss-up.

Good news for Obama comes out of the upper Midwest today. He improved his position in Minnesota by two points since yesterday, as a result of a new Minnesota Public Radio that has him up by 19 in the state. SurveyUSA puts Obama up by 15 points in Iowa and 16 points in Wisconsin. These three states look like they're all out of play for McCain.

Obama is maintaining his small but significant leads in North Carolina, Florida and Ohio. McCain is holding on for dear life in Georgia.

Even if McCain somehow pulls off an upset in Pennsylvania, Obama may still counteract that with wins in Colorado, Virginia and Nevada, which would give him 270 electoral votes and thus the presidency. Obama has leads of 6 points or more in those three states right now and they may be just out of reach for McCain.

There's also some embarrassing news for the McCain campaign: he's running robocalls in his home state of Arizona. The calls mean Republicans are sinking resources into a state that obviously should have been a complete lock for McCain, and are not spending those resources in states like Indiana and Missouri, which are dead heats.